EPL

The Numbers Game: Is there any hope at all for Norwich at Anfield?

By Sports Desk February 18, 2022

As Liverpool continue their quest to put pressure on Manchester City (well, try to), Norwich City travel to Anfield hoping to boost survival chances.

But history isn't on the side of Dean Smith's men, who must be fearing the worst against a side they never seem to cope well with.

Expectations for Norwich are surely lower against Liverpool than versus any other team.

Here's why…

Red-faced Canaries

Norwich City really, really don't like playing Liverpool. Liverpool really, really enjoy playing Norwich City.

The Reds have handed out some absolute batterings to Norwich down the years, with the Luis Suarez era particularly profitable for the Reds.

Granted, a historically good team racking up goals against sides who traditionally finish near the bottom isn't anything new, but Liverpool's domination of Norwich does take things a bit further.

They average 2.8 goals per game against the Canaries in the Premier League – that's 53 in 19 matches. Among all the teams the Reds have played at least five times, that is their highest rate.

Liverpool have already beaten Norwich twice this season, winning 3-0 in the Premier League and 3-0 in the EFL Cup.

If they beat them by three or more goals again, it'll be only the ninth occasion of an English top-flight side completing such a hat-trick in a single season, and the first since Arsenal against Aston Villa in 2014-15.

Fortress Anfield

Anfield is a tough place to go at the best of times – from Norwich's perspective, this certainly isn't "the best of times".

As Liverpool continue to badger away near the top of the table, hoping to capitalise on any Manchester City slip-up, they have put together a strong run at home.

They are unbeaten in their previous 15 home league games and have won the most recent six by an aggregate score of 17-1.

Norwich do at least make the long trip to Liverpool – presumably made even longer by Storm Eunice – having won their last away game.

Having said that, away to Liverpool is a slightly different proposition than going to Watford, with all due respect.

Similarly, Norwich haven't won back-to-back away games in the top flight since January 2012 and managed to win just one of their last 25 league meetings with a top-three side – that was on the final day of 2012-13.

Polar opposites

Apart from the fact they've conceded the most (50) and scored the fewest (14) in the Premier League, Norwich aren't doing too badly…

Okay, that sounds disingenuous but they have managed to climb to 18th in the table and a win here – however unlikely that may be – could see them end the weekend one point from safety.

The problem, though, is the contrasting quantities of their goals record with Liverpool, who have scored the joint-most (61) and conceded the third-fewest (19).

On top of that, Liverpool have scored more than twice as many goals in both the first (31) and second half (30) of games as Norwich have in total this term.

It certainly won't look like there's much hope if Norwich need goals in the second half. Six of their strikes this term have been after the break, though half of those came one game (away to Watford).

Salah eyes assists double-double achievement

It won't be remotely surprising to learn Salah has a good record against Norwich. He's been involved in five goals (two scored, three assisted) in three Premier League matches against them.

With that in mind, he'll surely be confident of adding to that haul and reaching a landmark.

With 16 goals and nine assists already this term, Salah is agonisingly close to reaching double figures in both for the third time in a Premier League season, having also managed this in 2017-18 and 2019-20.

Only three players in Premier League history have managed it three times or more, with Eric Cantona leading the way (four) and Didier Drogba the sole individual on three.

It's surely only a matter of time, and his track record against Norwich would have few betting against it occurring on Saturday.

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    Southampton, meanwhile, welcome the Reds to St. Mary’s on the back of a 2-0 defeat to Wolves ahead of the international break, leaving them bottom of the table after 11 games of the season.

    The Saints are the lowest scorers in the Premier League this season (seven), while only Crystal Palace (5.1%) have a lower shot conversion rate than Russell Martin’s side (6.2%). Just 30.1% of Southampton’s shots have been on target this term (34/113), a league-low ratio.

    However, the Southampton head coach is relishing the opportunity of facing Liverpool, with his players performing well against the likes of Arsenal and Manchester City already this term.

    "I'm really excited about Sunday. We're playing the best team in the country at the moment, on their current form and what they have been doing with their manager, built on an incredible foundation from the previous manager, so I'm really looking forward to it,” Martin said.

    "I think we showed the guys the Premier League table last season and how much it changed by the end and by the end of December. But it's honestly such an exciting month.

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    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    Southampton – Mateus Fernandes

    Fernandes has become a mainstay in the Southampton team, starting the last eight Premier League games in a row, and has been one of Martin’s standout performers in a lacklustre start to the campaign.

    In the Saints’ 2-0 defeat to Wolves last time out, the Portuguese contributed a team-high expected goals (xG) tally of 0.22 from his three shots, while only Yukinari Sugawara (10) and Flynn Downes (12) have created more chances in the top-flight than Fernandes (eight) this season.

    Liverpool – Mohamed Salah

    Salah has both scored and assisted in the same match 35 times in the Premier League (including four already this term), just one shy of Wayne Rooney’s record of 36 games with both a goal and an assist in the competition. The Egyptian has been directly involved in 11 goals (seven goals, four assists) in 11 Premier League appearances against Southampton.

    He has also been directly involved in 67% of Liverpool’s Premier League goals this season (14/21 – eight goals, six assists), the highest ratio by a player for any side in the division in 2024-25. Indeed, only Matt Le Tissier for Southampton in 1993-94 (69% - 34/49) has scored or assisted a higher proportion of a side’s goals in a single season in the competition.

    MATCH PREDICTION: LIVERPOOL WIN

    Liverpool have won nine of their 11 Premier League games under new head coach Slot (D1 L1). A win over Southampton will see the Dutchman become the joint-fastest manager to reach 10 wins from the start of a Premier League career (12 games), alongside Guus Hiddink in May 2009 and Carlo Ancelotti in November 2009 (both with Chelsea).

    The Reds’ last Premier League game against the Saints was a 4-4 away draw in May 2023 – they conceded as many goals in that game as they had in their previous six visits to St Mary’s combined.

    Southampton have won just one of their last 14 Premier League games against Liverpool (D3 L10), a 1-0 home victory in January 2021.

    This will also be the first Premier League match between the side starting the day bottom of the table and the side starting the day top since April 2023, and Southampton’s 3-3 draw away to Arsenal. The league leaders are unbeaten in 14 such matches (W12 D2) since Wolves won 2-1 against Manchester United in February 2011.

    However, Southampton have only lost one of their last eight Premier League home games against sides starting the day at the summit (W2 D5) and are unbeaten in their last four (W2 D2 – including a 1-0 win over Liverpool in January 2021) since a 0-1 defeat to Man City in May 2018.

    But Martin’s side have lost nine of their 11 Premier League games this season (W1 D1). Only seven sides in English top-flight history have reached 10 defeats in 12 or fewer matches from the start of a campaign, with all seven going on to be relegated.

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Southampton – 9.7%

    Draw – 12.6%

    Liverpool – 77.7%

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    "There were a couple of ways we could do it. Obviously, we knew a point was enough, but I don’t think the players were thinking that way.

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    While plenty of focus is on the visitors at Portman Road, Ipswich are fired up after beating Tottenham 2-1 before the international break.

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    McKenna, who previously coached United, said at a fan event this week: "Sunday, what a game. It's one we're really, really looking forward to.

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    Ipswich Town - Liam Delap

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    That makes the Manchester City academy product one of only three players to have scored at least half of his side's goals in the competition this season, along with Erling Haaland at City (55%) and Chris Wood at Nottingham Forest (53%).

    Manchester United - Alejandro Garnacho

    Garnacho was among the scorers against Leicester two weeks ago and has now been directly involved in 20 Premier League goals for United (13 goals and seven assists).

    The Argentina international is one of only two non-British players to reach that figure for United before turning 21, along with Cristiano Ronaldo (25 goals).

    MATCH PREDICTION: MANCHESTER UNITED WIN

    Ipswich are seeking back-to-back Premier League wins for the first time since February 2022, with that run also beginning with a 2-1 victory against Tottenham.

    The Tractor Boys are the only side in the competition without a home win this season. Only five newly promoted clubs have failed to win any of their first six home matches, all of whom went back down.

    United have won 17 of their past 19 Premier League games against newly promoted opponents, meanwhile, including nine wins in a row in away fixtures.

    The Red Devils were 1-0 winners on their most recent league trip to Portman Road in April 2022, but only once have they won successive league games away to Ipswich.

    However, the Tractor Boys have lost four of their past five league matches against Man United, failing to score in each of those losses.

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Ipswich Town - 22.2%

    Draw - 23%

    Manchester United - 54.8%

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