It took just two games of the 2021-22 season for Manchester City's failed pursuit of Harry Kane to become a big problem for Pep Guardiola.
After losing the Community Shield to Leicester City, they promptly went to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and lost 1-0 again, even with Kane absent and City boasting Premier League record signing Jack Grealish.
The narrative arc was glaring: City would fall short without a recognised number nine, while Spurs were neither dependent on Kane nor foolhardy to snub the chance of a huge transfer fee. Perhaps he could realise his dream of big trophies in north London after all.
Six months on, and the world has come to its senses. Since losing to Spurs, City have won 20 and lost just one of their Premier League matches and look to be marching imperiously towards the title again. Spurs have changed manager, swapping one the fans never really wanted for one who gives a good impression he would rather be anywhere else, and are enduring a three-game losing run that has put their Champions League hopes in jeopardy.
And nobody is really talking about Kane, except to wonder what's going wrong.
It's beginning to look like City dodged a nine-figure bullet by not pursuing their interest. Kane has just five goals and two assists in 21 league games this season, his minutes-per-goal rate of 358.4 more than twice as bad as at any other time in his career, while his expected goals tally of 8.99 is the lowest since he played just 10 times in 2013-14.
Part of that problem can be attributed to Kane's role under Nuno Espirito Santo and now Antonio Conte. His link-up play is still effective: he is creating on average one chance per 90 minutes, slightly down on his career average in the Premier League, but averaging more passes played into the box (3.1) than he ever has.
Similarly, he is top among Spurs players for involvements in open-play sequences ending in a shot (98) – even when you remove the 52 where Kane's only contribution was the shot, he still ranks as high as fifth (46). In other words, he remains key to both getting them on the front foot and testing the opposition's goalkeeper.
Yet ultimately, Kane will be judged on goal involvements, which makes this season a distinct disappointment. Whether he was affected by City's failed pursuit, or a hangover from England's Euro 2020 final defeat – or a combination of both – it's hard to make a case for this Kane to be the missing link for Guardiola's City. And that's especially true when you consider just what Guardiola wants in his forwards: the ability to play in any position across the attack, rather than become pinioned in the number-nine role. It's why he saw fit to spend £100million on Grealish, why Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Robert Lewandowski and Sergio Aguero have each faced battles to keep their places in his teams, and why any move for Erling Haaland is no guarantee.
It also makes you wonder why City did not turn their attentions to the man who scored the winner in that game at Spurs last August, and who has six goals in eight matches against them.
Son Heung-min would appear, on the face of it, an ideal Guardiola player. He has proved himself adept out wide, as a number 10 and as a central striker for Spurs, hitting double figures for goals and assists for two league seasons running – don't rule out him repeating the feat again.
With nine goals and three assists, Son leads the way for direct goal involvements for Spurs in this season's difficult Premier League campaign. He has also created the most chances (36), playing 144 passes into the box, which is almost double the number of any team-mate (this includes set-pieces, of course). Son also boasts the best shot conversion rate (18.8) among players with more than one goal, while Kane's is down at just seven per cent.
The South Korea star is second only to Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg when it comes to involvements in Spurs' build-up play in the top flight this season, 35 of which have ended in a shot on goal. And when he doesn't have the ball, Son remains adept at winning it back: he has won possession the most among Spurs attackers (89), with 11 of those gains occurring in the opposition's defensive third.
Adaptable, hard-working and clinical are words that could be ascribed to any of City's forwards, and Son fits right in that same group. Should Spurs fail to qualify for the Champions League again, they may be forced to make some concessions in the transfer market, especially if they want to satisfy Conte's demands while keeping costs down. Son has just over three years on his contract and does not appear likely to agitate for a move, but, ahead of his 30th birthday in July, the next window could represent his final opportunity for a major transfer.
If anyone in a Spurs shirt is likely to impress City officials on Saturday, it's Son.
Schwarz believes pressure will bring out the best in Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls head coach Sandro Schwarz says pressure is good for players as they prepare to face rivals New York City FC in the MLS Eastern Conference semifinal.
The Red Bulls beat defending MLS Cup champions Columbus Crew 1-0 in the first of their best-of-three series before edging them 5-4 on penalties in Game 2.
They are playing in the semifinals for the first time since 2018, though it is the first time they are meeting their city rivals in the postseason in their history.
Schwarz acknowledged there was a lot riding on this game but is sure the pressure can bring out the best in his team.
"To feel the pressure as a player and head coach is good," he told reporters. "We need the pressure to bring our best performance and level.
"Without pressure, it's not possible. Now we have this historic derby on Saturday and we're very excited.
"Our main target is to win this game, but our focus is to get a result like we had against Columbus. The last three weeks have been looking at how we can create our best performance for Saturday."
Meanwhile, NYCFC had to come from behind in round one after losing their first match to FC Cincinnati but won the second at home before going through with a 6-5 penalty shootout win in the decider.
Head coach Nick Cushing is delighted to have home advantage for the semifinal tie but says he is not yet thinking about securing the same fate in the next round.
"I've learned over my tenure here as assistant coach and as head coach that the next game is the most important part," Cushing said.
"The whole focus is hosting a playoff semifinal at home. We're really proud that we've done everything to get to this opportunity, but there are many more challenges ahead, and we cannot look further than the first 10 minutes of the game, because that is our main focus.
"And then, through there, we have a game plan and half-time. We're working through this game, and that is our whole focus."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
New York City FC – Alonzo Martinez
Twelve of Alonzo Martinez's 17 goals this season (regular season and playoffs) have been scored in home matches, while Santiago Rodriguez has scored 11 of his 13 goals at home.
Both players found the net in NYCFC's home win over Cincinnati in Game 2 of their first-round series.
New York Red Bulls – Emil Forsberg
Emil Forsberg became the 14th different Red Bulls player to record a goal and an assist in a single playoff match in Game 2 of New York's first-round series against Columbus Crew.
No player has more than one such game in the team's postseason history.
MATCH PREDICTION: NEW YORK CITY FC WIN
This will be the first playoff meeting between New York City FC and the Red Bulls, but the fifth in knockout rounds in all competitions.
The Red Bulls eliminated NYCFC in each of the previous four knockout round meetings, doing so in the US Open Cup three times and the Leagues Cup once.
NYCFC has won five of their eight all-time home playoff matches, including the last three in a row. All three teams that defeated NYCFC on the road in the playoffs went on to reach the MLS Cup Final (Toronto FC in 2016 & 2019, Atlanta United in 2018).
The Red Bulls' 1-0 win at Columbus in Game 1 on October 29 ended a six-match road losing streak in postseason play for the club. The Red Bulls have won multiple road playoff games in a single season twice before, doing so in 2008 and 2017.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
New York City FC – 46.5%
Draw – 26.5%
New York Red Bulls – 27%
'Super simple' – Lille president rules out January exit for Jonathan David
Lille president Olivier Letang has categorically ruled out a January exit for forward Jonathan David amid links with a number of European clubs.
David is out of contract at the end of the season and has been touted as a target for the likes of Bayern Munich, Juventus and Barcelona.
Speaking this week, the Canada international named Barcelona as his "dream" club but suggested he would prefer not to leave Lille mid-season.
And in an interview with After Foot RMC, Letang confirmed no bids have yet been tabled ahead of the January window.
"We are not going to sell him in January, and we have not received any offer for him," he said.
"Jonathan's situation is super simple. We are very happy to have him with us.
"Last season he had one more year left on his contract. We were trying to qualify for the Champions League.
"You have a guy who scores 20 to 25 goals a season. We had no obligation to sell him."
David is into his fifth season with Lille and has scored 97 goals in 202 games for the Ligue 1 side in all competitions while assisting a further 18.
Seven of those goals have arrived in 11 appearances this term, including in Champions League games against Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid and Juventus.
The 24-year-old's best league season with Lille saw him score 24 goals in 2022-23, while he has netted 19, 15 and 13 in the other full campaigns.
Lille chief Letang reiterated that David has been offered a new deal to stay on at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, but selling him has never been an option.
"He is a player who scores between 20 and 25 goals and helps us qualify for the Champions League," he said.
"Plus, Jonathan loves Lille, which is his club. Our position was very clear from the beginning – we think of the athlete.
"Obviously, he already has an offer that is in his hands, the ball is in his court."
Guardiola suggests Man City's recent form played part in signing new contract
Pep Guardiola suggested Manchester City's run of four successive defeats was part of the reason for his contract extension.
The 53-year-old recently signed a two-year deal, which will run out in 2027, ending months of speculation about his future after his contract had been due to run out at the end of the campaign.
Following a 2-1 defeat to Brighton before the international break, Guardiola's side have lost each of their last four matches in all competitions for the first time in his managerial career.
"I felt I could not leave now. Maybe the four defeats was why," he told the club's website.
"I think we deserve, after four defeats in a row, to bounce back and try to turn the situation. I think we deserve to be here. I am not arrogant to say, but it's the truth."
Guardiola has led Manchester City to 18 major trophies during his nine-year stint at the club and posted a 72% win ratio.
He added that he was determined to help the club get back to a state where they are "more stable and more consistent".
"We have to recover that because right now we don't have it and that's the target we have to do," he said.
City chairman Khaldoon Al Mubarak added: "Like every City fan, I am delighted that Pep's journey with Manchester City will continue, allowing his dedication, passion and innovative thinking to continue to shape the landscape of the game.
"His hunger for improvement and success remains insatiable and the direct beneficiaries of that will continue to be our players and coaching staff, the culture of our club, and the English game at large."
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