EPL

The Numbers Game: Can Moyes pull off a Man Utd double for first time since Mourinho's Chelsea?

By Sports Desk January 21, 2022

Not many would have predicted before the season that Manchester United versus West Ham represented a key game in the battle for the top four, but that's where we are.

The Red Devils' win over Brentford moved them to within two points of the Hammers in fourth, with a game in hand, meaning Saturday's clash at Old Trafford offers a good chance to make some headway in the race to finish behind Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City.

It also gives David Moyes the chance to end a pretty rotten record at the home of his old club – and that's not including the nine months he was in charge there – as well as the chance for West Ham to avenge their defeat in the reverse fixture.

Let's not forget they have already won away against United in 2021-22 – and not many teams manage to do that twice in a season. The last one, in fact, was managed by Jose Mourinho.


BEDEVILLED

United have won 20 of their 25 home games against West Ham in the Premier League, their last defeat coming in May 2007, when soon-to-be Red Devil Carlos Tevez secured a 1-0 win for the visitors.

Yet their record when London clubs come calling hasn't been so strong of late: they have lost three of the previous eight home games against teams from the capital, as many such defeats as they suffered in 38 matches at Old Trafford between 2013-14 and 2019-20.

West Ham, of course, boast the rare feat of being above United in the table: while they sit fourth, United are seventh. Only four times previously in the Premier League era have the Hammers faced them while being placed higher in the standings; interestingly, they failed to win any of them, losing 2-1 in August 1995 and September 2014, drawing 0-0 in August 1998 and losing 3-1 in December 2020.

'PLAY LIKE FERGIE'S BOYS...'

Moyes has done a quite brilliant job at West Ham since being parachuted in to rescue them in December 2019. Since the start of 2020-21, he has managed 30 wins from 60 league matches, accruing 102 points in that time. The only sides with more victories and more points are United, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City.

Old Trafford, though, is not a happy hunting ground for the former United boss. He has drawn four and lost 10 of his away games at the stadium as a Premier League manager; only Harry Redknapp (15 games) has visited more often in the competition without a single win.

That being said, Moyes did lead West Ham to victory on this ground in the EFL Cup back in September, and they could become just the fourth team to beat United away twice in the same season after Aston Villa (1919-20), Tottenham (1989-90) and Chelsea (2004-05).

BOWEN'S ROAD RAGE, HAMMER TIME FOR RONALDO

Cristiano Ronaldo scored in United's dramatic 2-1 win in the reverse fixture in September, in which he was also denied a couple of pretty strong penalty shouts before Mark Noble's injury-time spot-kick was saved by David de Gea.

The Portugal great has always quite enjoyed facing the Hammers, with six goals and one assist in his five league appearances against them. He was directly involved in seven of the 10 United goals in those matches, in fact, so you wouldn't bet against him keeping up that record – assuming, of course, he isn't having a strop on the bench instead.

Jarrod Bowen, arguably West Ham's most in-form player, is another who will be hoping to make an impact.

He has scored six and assisted seven goals in his past 18 league appearances, including goals in his most recent two, but the former Hull City man has only scored three times in 43 top-flight matches on the road, converting a meagre four per cent of his shots (3/69).

Bowen has played seven times against United from the start, but he's never scored, and only twice has he even lasted the whole game.

SATURDAY SLUMP

It's a minor novelty in itself that United are playing a match at 15:00 local time on a Saturday. Such is their global appeal that broadcasters are usually quick to shift them to a more viewer-friendly kick-off time.

Ralf Rangnick might actually have preferred a different slot. United have lost their most recent two games to start at this time on a Saturday, both of which were this season: 4-2 at Leicester City, and 4-1 at Watford, a result that ended the reign of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. Never before have they lost three in a row when playing at this time.

United's opening league game of 2022 ended in a 1-0 loss to Wolves at Old Trafford. They have not lost their first two home league matches in a year since 1985, when Ron Atkinson's side were beaten by Sheffield Wednesday and Coventry City. They did go on to finish fourth, though...

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    After a difficult period, Newcastle bounced back by beating Arsenal (1-0) and Nottingham Forest (3-1) to enter the international break eighth in the table, one point adrift of third-placed Chelsea.

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    Opponents West Ham, meanwhile, are just five points clear of the relegation zone after signing off for the international break with a goalless draw against Everton, a result that followed on from a crushing 3-0 defeat at Forest.

    The Hammers' underwhelming start to the campaign has seen Julen Lopetegui's position questioned mere months after he took the reins, and he is demanding a complete performance next time out.

    Speaking to BBC Sport after the Everton game, Lopetegui said: "We had more chances than them. In the second half, we had more clear chances to win the game.

    "The first half was a gift for them. We lost 45 minutes. In the second half we did better, we were aggressive and had chances to win.

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    PLAYERS TO WATCH 

    Newcastle United – Harvey Barnes

    Only against Aston Villa (nine) has Barnes been directly involved in more Premier League goals than he has against West Ham (eight – six goals, two assists). 

    He has either scored or assisted in each of his last four against the Hammers (four goals, one assist), finding the net in each of the last three.

     

    West Ham – Michail Antonio 

    Only Wolves frontman Jorgen Strand Larsen (16) has made more hold-ups while retaining possession in the Premier League this season than West Ham striker Antonio (15). 

    Antonio is retaining possession with 71% of his hold-ups in the competition this term (15/21), the highest ratio of any player to attempt 10 or more. Lopetegui's side are likely to spend plenty of time under pressure on Monday, but he could provide them with an outlet.

    MATCH PREDICTION – NEWCASTLE UNITED WIN

    Newcastle have won their last two Premier League games and are looking to win three in a row for the first time since September 2023 – this is the sixth occasion since then that they have won twice in a row in the league.

    They have lost just one of their last 10 Premier League games against West Ham (five wins, four draws) and are unbeaten in all five against the Hammers under Howe (two wins, three draws). They triumphed 4-3 when the sides last met at St James' Park in March.

     

    West Ham, meanwhile, have kept just two clean sheets in their last 28 Premier League away games, conceding 66 goals (2.4 per game). 

    Indeed, in 2024, they have conceded more away goals in the top-flight (35) than any side.

    Lopetegui's men have also failed to score in their last two league games, as many as in their previous 14 beforehand. Only five teams have a worse difference between their expected goals (xG) and expected goals against (xGA) figures than West Ham (-2.97) this term.

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Newcastle United – 58.9%

    West Ham – 19.7%

    Draw – 21.4%

  • McKenna fired up for 'biggest game in world football' against Man United McKenna fired up for 'biggest game in world football' against Man United

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    Ipswich Town - Liam Delap

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    Ipswich are seeking back-to-back Premier League wins for the first time since February 2022, with that run also beginning with a 2-1 victory against Tottenham.

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  • Amorim told Europa League qualification is 'mandatory' in first Man Utd season Amorim told Europa League qualification is 'mandatory' in first Man Utd season

    Ruben Amorim must at least guide Manchester United back into the Europa League in his first season as the club's manager.

    That is the view of ex-Manchester City defender Danny Mills, whose former side were beaten 4-1 by Amorim and Sporting CP in the Champions League earlier this month.

    Amorim has been hired by Man Utd to replace Erik ten Hag after the Dutchman was sacked midway through his third season in charge at Old Trafford.

    Having taken charge of his final games in Lisbon, a spell which included that famous continental win over Man City, Amorim started his work at United during the international break.

    His first game at the helm comes this Sunday away at Ipswich Town and while Mills acknowledges the task of rebuilding United's team is a long-term project, he feels there is still a certain level of results Amorim needs to hit in the 2024-25 season.

    "Amorim needs to figure out which players fit his mould and buy into his project," former England international Mills said to Stats Perform.

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    The 39-year-old won three Portuguese league titles with Benfica as a player while he left Sporting as head coach after guiding them to two league titles and two Taca da Liga trophies.

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    "The appointment of Ruben Amorim is a good one," added Mills. "You have to look at the people involved [in the appointment] as well.

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    Amorim takes over at United with the club 13th in the Premier League with 15 points from 11 matches and having collected just one win from four matches in the Europa League. 

    Mills believes there is plenty for United fans to like about the new boss' approach on and off the pitch.

    "Football has evolved faster in the last 10 years than ever before and Amorim deals with the press well," he said.

    "When Sporting beat Manchester City, he admitted they played well but got a bit lucky. People appreciate that honesty. 

    "Fans and pundits are more knowledgeable now than ever before, thanks to the amount of football they consume and the opinions they hear, especially on social media."

     

    After facing Ipswich, Amorim's first two home games will see Man Utd take on Bodo/Glimt in the Europa League and Everton in the Premier League.

    He will then take the Red Devils to the Emirates Stadium for a huge clash against Arsenal on 4 December.

    United reached this season's Europa League by winning the FA Cup under Ten Hag and they have that potential path again this season, while they are also still in the EFL Cup, a competition in which they will play Tottenham in the quarter-finals.

    Winning the Europa League itself, meanwhile, would mean qualification to the Champions League.

    But while there are multiple routes open to Amorim in his bid to secure a continental spot, the Opta supercomputer does not like his chances of doing that through United's league placing.

    After their poor start to the season, United have just a 13.2% chance of finishing in the top six, and a 33.1% shot at reaching the top eight.

    As things stand, they are most likely to finish between ninth and 11th, meaning they are on track for their worst-ever Premier League finish unless Amorim can lead a rapid revival.

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