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• Premier League MD11: Lucky winners and unlucky losers

  The final international break of 2024 is here, and we can safely say the Premier League is starting to take shape.

  Opta's supercomputer now has Liverpool, who are five points clear at the top following their win over Aston Villa on Saturday, as the favourites to go on and win the title.

  Manchester City lost a fourth straight game in all competitions as they went down 2-1 at Brighton, while Chelsea and Arsenal are third and fourth respectively after sharing the points.

  When assessing the underlying metrics, it looks like Sunday's draw at Stamford Bridge was a fair result, but that was not the case across the board this weekend.

  Here, we pick out the lucky winners and unlucky losers from matchday 11.

  Lucky winners: Manchester United

  Manchester United are now under new management, with Ruben Amorim officially starting as head coach on Monday. But interim boss Ruud van Nistelrooy ensured he went out with a high as the Red Devils beat Leicester City 3-0 on Sunday.

  However, it is fair to say United were rather fortunate to net three times at Old Trafford, with the data suggesting they did not even create chances worthy of one goal, never mind three.

  United's expected goals (xG) was 0.69, the third-lowest total in the league this weekend and behind Leicester's 0.77.

  Bruno Fernandes scored one and set up another on his 250th appearance for the club, either side of Victor Kristiansen's own goal, but from 13 shots, United, who had only 17 touches in Leicester's box, really did not create much in the way of quality opportunities.

  Indeed, their attacking quality instead told, with Fernandes and Alejandro Garnacho finishing well. At the other end, Leicester failed to make their moments count, despite hitting the target with five of their six shots.

  Spare a thought for Erik ten Hag, given when he was in charge, United's attack was underperforming. Now Amorim just needs to pick up where Van Nistelrooy left off...

  Unlucky losers: Manchester City

  Man City are suddenly the crisis club, having lost four straight games for the first time since August 2006. Pep Guardiola, meanwhile, has lost four games in a row in all competitions for the very first time in his managerial career.

  Erling Haaland also lost a Premier League match in which he scored a goal for the very first time, having put City ahead before Joao Pedro and Matt O'Riley clinched the points for Brighton.

   

  Brighton finished with 2.29 xG, so they did deserve to score at least twice. However, City can still consider themselves unfortunate, given their 2.22 xG was the third-highest of any team across the weekend.

  Their post-shot expected goals on target (xGoT) also rose to 2.98, showing that Brighton goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen was on fine form.

  City also created five big chances, missing four of them, and hit the woodwork once. That being said, they conceded eight big chances, with Brighton letting them off for six of those, so it was not a good day at the office for Guardiola.

  Unlucky losers: Bournemouth

  If Man City were unfortunate, then the team to have created the highest xG (2.61) this past weekend – Bournemouth – can consider themselves hard done by.

  Andoni Iraola claimed his team were worthy of the three points against Brentford, despite the Cherries losing 3-2, and the underlying metrics suggest the Spaniard was fair in his assessment.

   

  Only Tottenham (35 in their loss against Ipswich Town) had more touches in the opponent's box than Bournemouth's 34 at the Gtech Community Stadium, but Iraola's side were made to pay for some dismal finishing.

  Their xGoT dropped to 1.68, while Brentford's rose from 1.48 xG to 1.84 xGoT – essentially, the level of finishing from Brentford's players increased the likelihood they would score, while Bournemouth's finishing was below what would have been anticipated based on the quality of chances they had. That is further backed up by the fact the Cherries only got three of their 15 attempts on target.

• Van Nistelrooy praises Man Utd fight after signing off with win

  Ruud van Nistelrooy praised Manchester United's fight to earn a 3-0 win against Leicester City in his final game as interim manager.

  The Dutchman took over after Erik ten Hag's dismissal last month and went unbeaten in his short stint, winning three of his games and drawing the other, with Ruben Amorim set to take over from Monday.

  Bruno Fernandes and Alejandro Garnacho got the goals on either side of Victor Kristiansen turning into the back of his own net to earn United just their fourth Premier League win of the campaign.

  United are now unbeaten in 19 straight Premier League games against promoted sides, taking 53 of a possible 57 points across these matches (W17 D2). Their last such defeat came away to Claudio Ranieri's Watford back in November 2021 (1-4).

  It is not yet clear if Van Nistelrooy will remain at the club on Amorim's coaching staff, but the former United striker is proud of his short time in charge at Old Trafford.

  "It was professional, you could see that players were fighting through the game," he told BBC Sport. "We scored two great goals and there were some good bits, but we didn't have real control of the game.

  "I really enjoyed it [being interim manager], it's been a short but amazing period. We are in an uncertain position, but we tried to do our jobs and help the club, which is important.

  "There are a lot of feelings there, the way the fans supported me and the team always in difficult moments. It was a special moment. To close down this block of games with good results and a good connection, I can't thank them enough.

  "We will learn what the plan is now.

  "This spell was a big responsibility; I took it very seriously. I wanted to help and get United into a better place. That was my goal. With three wins and a draw, it's a standard where you want to grow to as a club.

  "The connection with the fans was there, I really felt it. This is what United is really about."

  Going into their match against Leicester, United had scored just nine league goals, their lowest-ever tally after 10 games in Premier League history.

  Fernandes scored four goals under Van Nistelrooy’s leadership, having failed to hit the back of the net in the league before that, bringing up his 100th goal involvement in the Premier League with his assist for Garnacho.

  "You saw the class of the team in our goals, we also gave very little away," Van Nistelrooy added.

  "We tried to stabilise after a difficult and emotional period. We wanted to get players performing at their best, we got the right feeling to them and got them to believe in themselves.

  "It was an important three points. In the four games, Bruno scored some important goals, assisting too, so he is back producing. That's the Bruno that is helping the team the most.

  "I spoke to Alejandro Garnacho before the game, he has played a lot of minutes, and I wanted him to make an impact off the bench, and I'm glad it worked out. We said: 'Let's make the most of these four games', get the maximum out of it and I think we did an OK job."

• 'It's been a long time,' says McKenna after Ipswich stun Tottenham for first league win

  Ipswich Town boss Kieran McKenna said it was a 'special' moment for the club after they earned their first Premier League win of the season by beating Tottenham 2-1. 

  Sammie Szmodics and Liam Delap scored for Ipswich before half-time at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. 

  Though Tottenham reduced the deficit through Rodrigo Bentancur in the 69th minute, the Tractor Boys held on for a famous win. 

  It was also Ipswich's first win in the Premier League since a 1-0 victory over Middlesborough in April 2002, ending a run of 12 away games without a win (D3 L9).

  "I am so proud. It's been a long time for the club, 22 years since the supporters saw a win in the Premier League. The journey to get to here has been a big one," McKenna told BBC Sport after the game. 

  "It feels a bit special today. We believe we’ve been improving. We had picked up five out of 10 results but were waiting for the first win to validate the work and improvements. It’s a massive moment, one to cherish."

  The result was extra special for an Ipswich side, who were denied a win by Leicester City last week through a 94th-minute equaliser from Jordan Ayew, who made it 1-1 at Portman Road.

  But Szmodics and Delap – the latter with his sixth Premier League goal of the season – struck in the first half to give Ipswich a two-goal cushion.