Robert Lewandowski can consider himself hard done by. The Bayern Munich striker would almost certainly have won his maiden Ballon d'Or in 2020, only for France Football to decide not to hand out the award due to the coronavirus pandemic.
However, world football's most prestigious individual accolade is back up for grabs this year, with the ceremony set to take place on Monday.
Lewandowski, who scooped The Best FIFA Men's Player award for 2020 and has had another sensational year for Bayern, is among the favourites on a 30-man shortlist.
Will it finally be his time, or will old voting habits die hard to put Cristiano Ronaldo or Lionel Messi in pole position? Using Opta data, Stats Perform assesses the credentials of the Ballon d'Or favourites.
Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Munich, Poland)
Has anybody outperformed Bayern star Lewandowski in 2021? While there was no repeat of the treble-winning heroics of the 2019-20 campaign, he has been in astounding form and last season broke Gerd Muller's 49-year record for goals scored in a single Bundesliga campaign, netting 41 as Die Roten were crowned champions for a ninth straight campaign.
With 25 to his name already across all competitions this term, Lewandowski leads the way for goals from players in Europe's top five leagues, nine clear of anyone else. When taking the whole year so far into account, Lewandowski has netted 53 times in 41 games, putting him 16 clear of nearest challengers Kylian Mbappe and Erling Haaland. Unsurprisingly, his scoring rate – a goal every 65 minutes – is comfortably the best of any player to net 10 or more in 2021.
Lionel Messi (PSG, Argentina)
It has been a momentous year for Messi. He finally achieved success on the international stage, leading Argentina to a Copa America triumph. Following that, he was expected to sign a fresh deal at Barcelona, but we all know how that turned out. Now at Paris Saint-Germain, the 34-year-old marked his final season in Spain with one last trophy, the 2020-21 Copa del Rey.
Across 39 appearances in 2021 for Barca and PSG combined, Messi has 32 goals, nine assists and 81 chances created. But it is Messi's triumph with Argentina that really puts him in the running for a seventh Ballon d'Or.
Cristiano Ronaldo (Manchester United, Portugal)
Like Messi, Ronaldo – a five-time Ballon d'Or winner – made a big move of his own in 2021, returning to Manchester United after three seasons at Juventus. The 36-year-old has already scored 10 goals in his second spell at Old Trafford. While the team's struggles are well known – Ole Gunnar Solskjaer losing his job after last week's dismal defeat at Watford – Ronaldo's strike against Villarreal on Tuesday took him to 799 career goals for club and country, a remarkable feat.
While it has not been the finest year at club level for Ronaldo, with Juve missing out on the Serie A title, albeit winning the Coppa Italia, he did become the record goalscorer in men's international football, scoring his 110th and 111th goals in a double against the Republic of Ireland in September to overtake Ali Daei (109); the forward now has 115. His agent, Jorge Mendes, told France Football: "All these achievements, which represent the greatest performance in football history, should be pivotal in awarding the trophy, as he continues to demonstrate that he is, without doubt, the best world football player of all time."
Karim Benzema (Real Madrid, France)
Since Ronaldo departed Real Madrid in 2018, Benzema has stepped up to become Los Blancos' talisman. Although a LaLiga title evaded Madrid last season, it has been another fantastic year for Benzema. He earned a recall to the France squad for Euro 2020 and, despite the team's disappointing campaign, his stellar performances caught the eye, before he excelled again in World Cup qualifying and the Nations League Finals.
Indeed, Benzema's goal against Finland last week made him the first France player to score in four successive matches since he did so himself in five games between November 2013 and June 2014. There is no doubting he is a serious contender for this year's award.
Mohamed Salah (Liverpool, Egypt)
Liverpool star Salah cannot be ignored. Jurgen Klopp has labelled the Egypt forward as the world's best player and, based on the season so far, it would be hard to argue too much with that suggestion, with Lewandowski the only player across Europe's top five leagues to be directly involved in more goals (27) than Salah (24) to this point.
Only four players have topped Salah's goals tally of 32 in 2021, although Liverpool's failure to retain their Premier League crown last season probably counts against the 29-year-old when it comes to this prize.
Kylian Mbappe (PSG, France)
While players in their thirties dominate the bookmakers' list of favourites, could this be the year that Mbappe steals the crown? The 22-year-old could well have left PSG in August, but the Ligue 1 giants held firm despite three bids from Madrid, who seem likely to get their man on a free transfer at the end of the campaign.
In the meantime, Mbappe is forming a formidable front three with Messi and Neymar, whose own Ballon d'Or hopes seem extremely slim. Mbappe missed the decisive penalty as France slipped out of Euro 2020, but his 37 goals from 47 appearances for PSG across all competitions in 2021 tell their own story, while his shot conversion rate of 24.3 per cent betters that of Salah, Benzema, Messi and Ronaldo.
Jorginho (Chelsea, Italy)
An outsider for the award, perhaps, but nevertheless a player who has been widely tipped, Chelsea midfielder Jorginho played a pivotal role the Blues' Champions League triumph and then Italy's Euro 2020 success, although he did miss a penalty in the final shoot-out against England. In fact, he has now missed his past three spot-kicks for Italy, after having scored each of his first six taken for the Azzurri.
Jorginho has already scooped the UEFA Men's Player of the Year award, and it is not too long ago that another deep-lying playmaker in Luka Modric won the Ballon d'Or, even if the competition this time around seems a little too stacked.
N'Golo Kante (Chelsea, France)
Might Jorginho's Chelsea midfield partner have a shout? Kante is still dominating midfields with his boundless energy five years on from his title triumph with Leicester City. He was already an elite performer before Thomas Tuchel's arrival at Stamford Bridge, but he seems to have gone up another level since the German coach came in.
Across all competitions in 2021, Kante boasts a tackle success rate of 63.2 per cent and has made 193 recoveries. Freed by a box-to-box role in Tuchel's system, Kante has won 151 of 277 duels and registered an impressive 42 interceptions.
Philadelphia Union v Real Salt Lake: Curtin keen to maintain tough reputation
Jim Curtin is keen to see the Philadelphia Union retain their reputation as a tough team to play against, with his side still unbeaten this season ahead of Saturday's visit of Real Salt Lake.
The Union sit sixth in the Eastern Conference standings with three wins and four draws so far this term, their latest stalemate coming by a 2-2 scoreline against Atlanta United last time out.
While Curtin was somewhat disappointed to see the Union's three-match winning streak ended in Georgia, he is pleased by the resilience they have shown ahead of their return to Subaru Park.
"Whether people in the public think we're good or think we're bad, they will at least say we're tough to play against," Curtin said.
"I think that unequivocally across the board, there's not a coach or general manager or fan in this league that would say we're an easy team to deal with and play against.
"Part of that is not losing, finding ways to turn losses into ties, ties into wins, and we'll look to try to continue to do that and really protect our home field."
Philadelphia face a tough test this weekend, though, against a Salt Lake team currently flying high in third in the Western Conference.
Pablo Mastroeni's men are unbeaten in their last four games, producing their best performance of 2024 to date last time out as they thrashed the Chicago Fire 4-0 on the road.
"I'm so excited about what we can do as a group, as players and coaches, and the onus is on us to continue to get better and really push this thing forward," Mastroeni said after that win.
"I think we've established a decent standard, and we know where we are at our best and where we are lacking, but it's testament to the work the guys are doing during the week."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Philadelphia Union – Mikael Uhre
Uhre scored the Union's first goal as they fought back from two goals down to draw in Atlanta.
He has four goal involvements in MLS play this term (three goals, one assist), a tally only matched by Daniel Gazdag and Julian Carranza among his Union team-mates.
Real Salt Lake – Cristian Arango
Arango scored twice against the Fire last week and has now been involved in at least one goal in four straight regular-season road games, equalling the longest such streak in Real Salt Lake's history.
Might he break new ground at Subaru Park?
MATCH PREDICTION – PHILADELPHIA UNION WIN
The Union's only win in 12 all-time meetings with Real Salt Lake was a 4-1 home victory when the teams last met at Subaru Park in May 2018 (six draws, five losses). This will be the sides' first meeting on any ground since June 2019.
While the visitors are unbeaten in their last five matches (three wins, two draws), this could be their toughest test to date.
Philadelphia have only lost one of their last 41 regular-season home matches (28 wins, 12 draws), including going unbeaten through their last 16 (nine wins, seven draws), a run dating back over a year.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Philadelphia Union – 57.8%
Real Salt Lake – 17.3%
Draw – 24.9%
New York City v Charlotte FC: Cushing wants more from in-form hosts
Nick Cushing is pushing for more as New York City bid for a third successive victory against Charlotte FC at Yankee Stadium on Saturday.
NYCFC are eighth in the Eastern Conference standings after back-to-back 2-0 home wins over the New England Revolution and D.C. United, having gone four unbeaten (two wins, two draws).
Their consecutive wins have come after a run of just two victories in their previous 10 (three draws, five losses), but Cushing does not want his team to stop there.
"I think the three-game run is something that we have a huge desire to achieve," Cushing said.
"I said after the game in the locker room, it has been a long time since we've gone back-to-back. It's been too long, really, since we went back-to-back, so it's good to enjoy that after the game.
"Now we have the opportunity to do a three-game run. We have to make sure we do that before we think about anything else."
Charlotte have gone the opposite way in recent weeks, losing two of their last three games to leave them behind New York on goal difference.
Former Aston Villa boss Dean Smith acknowledges they need to show more in the forward areas after averaging just one goal per game in 2024.
"That's certainly an area where we need to be better, I think we all know that. We've been working on it for the last three or four weeks," Smith said.
"I think defensively we've been really solid. In terms of our creativity, we've had some big chances that we haven't taken.
"Last week [in a 3-0 loss to Minnesota United] there were some moments we didn't take as well, technically we just failed on that."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
New York City – Santiago Rodriguez
Rodriguez recorded a goal and an assist in NYCFC's win over D.C. last week and now has four goals and one assist this season, with all of those involvements coming at home.
Since the start of last season, 14 (seven goals, seven assists) of Rodriguez's 16 goal contributions in regular-season matches have come at home.
Charlotte FC – Ashley Westwood
Charlotte have failed to score in two of their last three games, and a lack of creativity has been a theme of their campaign to date.
Captain Westwood leads all Charlotte players for chances created this season, with 13, and he could be key if they are to hit the goal trail.
MATCH PREDICTION – NEW YORK CITY WIN
Charlotte are unbeaten in five all-time meetings with New York (four wins, one draw), including a 1-0 win over them in the teams' season opener on February 24.
The Crown are the only team NYCFC have faced more than once in MLS play and never defeated, but that may just change this week.
New York have won back-to-back matches to nil, a major defensive upturn after they managed just one clean sheet in their previous 10. Charlotte, meanwhile, have only earned one point from four road games in MLS this year, losing their last three in a row.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
New York City – 51.8%
Charlotte FC – 21.1%
Draw – 27.1%
FC Cincinnati v Colorado Rapids: Armas wants players to enjoy rise
Chris Armas says his Colorado Rapids players deserve to enjoy their meteoric rise up the MLS standings, and he is confident they will not get carried away ahead of their trip to FC Cincinnati.
Colorado sit fourth in the Western Conference with 15 points from nine games, winning three of their last four after an inconsistent start to the year.
They benefitted from two own goals as they beat FC Dallas 2-1 last time out, and Armas has no issue with his players enjoying their place in the standings, particularly given they finished rock bottom of the West in 2023.
"I see the boys looking at the TV where we have the standings posted, and they see that we're climbing, so it's all good stuff," Armas said.
"From day one the message that I preached is that everything we do will be based on hard work and that we will never get too low on ourselves.
"We don't get too high, the boys are realistic. That part's not that hard and our group is hungry and looking to improve every day."
Supporters' Shield holders Cincinnati have had an up-and-down start, going unbeaten through their first five games of the year before suffering back-to-back defeats against the New York Red Bulls and CF Montreal (both 1-2).
However, Pat Noonan's men bounced back with a statement 2-1 victory over Atlanta United last week, and defender Matt Miazga hopes that result will be a turning point.
"I look at everybody and I'm like, 'Alright, I see in his face, I see in his face. We want it,'" Miazga said.
"We all realised we are a top team, with big personalities, big characters, and it's time to show up in big moments."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
FC Cincinnati – Luciano Acosta
Acosta assisted Cincinnati's equaliser against Atlanta last Saturday before scoring the winner two minutes later.
That was Acosta's 13th regular-season match with a goal and an assist since the start of the 2022 season, three more than any other player in MLS has managed during that time.
Colorado Rapids – Djordje Mihailovic
Mihailovic has created at least twice as many chances as any other Colorado player in MLS this term (16), with Keegan Rosenberry and Sam Vines creating eight apiece.
He also has two goals and one assist to his name, while only Rafael Navarro (16) has bettered his 10 successful dribbles among his team-mates.
MATCH PREDICTION – FC CINCINNATI WIN
Cincinnati earned their first win over the Rapids last May, triumphing 1-0 on the road. The Rapids had won the first two meetings between the sides, including a 2-0 victory on their only previous trip to Cincinnati.
The Rapids also enter Saturday's game having won successive regular-season matches for the first time since September 2022, eyeing their first three-game winning streak since August 2021.
However, Cincinnati ended their poor run by beating Atlanta last time out and have, despite some underwhelming performances, only lost two of their nine league games this term (four wins, three draws). On home soil, the Supporters' Shield holders are favourites.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
FC Cincinnati – 49.3%
Colorado Rapids – 23.3%
Draw – 27.4%
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