It has been another off-season of change in Italy, but Serie A returns this week and another intriguing campaign awaits.
Inter were champions last term, ending Juventus' run of nine straight Scudetti, but they have not been able to keep their title-winning side together.
Romelu Lukaku is gone, as is coach Antonio Conte, while Massimiliano Allegri has returned to Juve to tee up another tilt.
So, what does that all mean for the coming season? Stats Perform attempts to find out.
The Stats Perform League Prediction Model, created by Stats Perform AI using Opta data, has analysed the division ahead of the new season to assign percentages to potential outcomes for each club.
The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) based on teams' attacking and defensive qualities, which considers four years' worth of results, with weighting based on recency and the quality of opposition. The season is then simulated 10,000 times to calculate the likelihood of each outcome.
Read on to see who can realistically compete with Inter and who should be looking over their shoulders...
THREE FIGHTING FOR TITLE
Inter might have lost some key men, but the model is backing a team that finished second and then first to lead the way again.
The Nerazzurri are given the best chance of taking the title (45.1 per cent), while they certainly should make the top four even without Lukaku and Conte, rated as a 94.2 per cent likelihood.
Unsurprisingly, Juve are the closest challengers to Inter's crown, with a 21.5 per cent shot.
It is not set to be a two-horse race, though, as Atalanta are the third and final team to be given a substantial chance at 19.6 per cent.
In fact, Atalanta's lowest probable finish of ninth is higher than Juve's 10th, with another exciting season expected for La Dea.
TOP FOUR SETTLED?
There is strength in depth in Serie A this season, but the model has identified a clear frontrunner for the fourth Champions League place.
Napoli, with a 9.4 per cent title chance, have a 68.6 per cent likelihood of making the top four, putting them well clear of the rest despite finishing fifth in 2020-21.
That means disappointment for big names like Milan, Lazio and Jose Mourinho's Roma.
Milan do have a 44.0 per cent shot at Champions League qualification, but that is a modest opportunity given they were second last term and led the league for half the season. A Scudetto triumph is rated at 3.6 per cent.
Lazio, under Maurizio Sarri, have a 14.9 per cent hope of a top-four place, while Mourinho clearly has work to do as rivals Roma are only given an 8.2 per cent likelihood.
Besides those sides, only Sassuolo – 1.1 per cent for the Champions League, 2.6 for the Europa League and 8.2 per cent for the Europa Conference League – are realistically also in the European picture.
STRAIGHT BACK DOWN AGAIN
The model does not make for pretty reading for the three promoted sides, who are all expected to spend only a single season in the top flight before returning to Serie B.
For Salernitana and Venezia, a particularly brutal campaign could be in store. They are highly likely to go down, rated at 95.9 per cent and 94.8 per cent respectively.
Empoli are given a slightly improved chance but are still expected to be relegated, at 79.3 per cent.
Torino's awful season, finishing 17th in 2020-21, should not be repeated, with merely a 4.3 per cent likelihood of demotion.
That still makes them sixth favourites for the drop, also behind Spezia (6.0 per cent) and Hellas Verona (5.4 per cent).
Luis Enrique confident PSG are in perfect form with three titles up for grabs
Paris Saint-Germain can wrap up the Ligue 1 title this weekend, and with the Champions League and Coupe de France still to play for, they are in the best possible form, according to manager Luis Enrique.
PSG host relegation battling Le Havre on Saturday, and a win will secure the league title with three games still to play, leaving them to concentrate on a Champions League semi-final with Borussia Dortmund and the cup final against Lyon.
"I think we are heading into the final phase of the season in great form," said Luis Enrique.
"I wouldn't have imagined this scenario going as positively as this, but what happens in the future is what happens. I would say we are in fantastic form in every way. We have almost every player available. Our supporters are very happy.
"The club has so much ambition to achieve something else. It is a really attractive end to the season, which we are motivated for, and we will continue to fight to achieve all our targets."
'Did anyone expect us to be champions?' – Klopp not ready to assess final season at Anfield
Jurgen Klopp refused to assess his final season at Liverpool just yet, despite the campaign seemingly starting to fizzle out.
Wednesday’s 2-0 defeat to Everton in the Merseyside derby dealt a huge blow to Liverpool’s Premier League title hopes.
The Reds are now three points clear of leaders Arsenal, while they are two points behind second-placed Manchester City, who have a game in hand.
Klopp has just four matches left of his Liverpool tenure, though he is not ready to assess the final season of his stint just yet.
"I would not assess it now. I have no clue, so I am not in the mood to give up, wave the white flag kind of thing," he said ahead of Saturday’s trip to West Ham.
"I just think we have to look after ourselves; just make sure that we play better football. I said after the game 'why should a team who play like us against Everton be champions?' But the football we played before, a lot of good stuff. In January we looked invincible, with a depleted squad. Everybody went in the same direction, go for it, squeezed out results.
"So, we deserve to be where we are. I want us to use the situation, don't feel the pressure, for whatever reason it is. The boys are incredible footballers and I see it as my job to create that atmosphere where they can be the best versions of themselves – and that's obviously how I have failed.
"I don't know how it happened, but I didn't see anything of what I wanted us to be in the Everton game."
Klopp did, though, reminded the media that Liverpool have performed above expectations.
"Did anyone expect us to become champions at the start of the season? No, but it developed in this direction," Klopp added.
"Just to explain how different it is. We cannot go back to the point where we say 'yeah, well [qualifying for the Champions League] is good enough'. It is very good, but because we were so close, we are very, very disappointed in this moment in time. We cannot change that."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
West Ham – Jarrod Bowen
Bowen has scored in both of West Ham’s meetings with Liverpool so far this season – the only Hammers player to score in three different games against the Reds in a single campaign is Geoff Hurst in 1964-65.
Liverpool – Mohamed Salah
Salah has received criticism for his recent form, but he has scored 11 goals for Liverpool against West Ham in all competitions, only netting more against Manchester United (14) in his Reds career.
MATCH PREDICTION: LIVERPOOL WIN
West Ham have won just one of their last eight Premier League home games (D5 L2), beating Brentford 4-2 in February. They lost against Fulham last time out but haven’t lost consecutive home league games since a run of three in November/December 2022.
Liverpool have already beaten West Ham 3-1 in the Premier League and 5-1 in the League Cup so far this season. This is the 11th different campaign in which they have faced the Hammers 3+ times, but they have never managed to beat them three times in any of the previous 10.
Since keeping back-to-back clean sheets against Liverpool in the 2015-16 campaign, West Ham have conceded at least once in each of their last 15 against the Reds, conceding multiple goals in 12 of those games.
Liverpool have only won more Premier League games against Crystal Palace (13) than they have against West Ham (12) under Klopp.
West Ham have lost 12 of their last 14 Premier League games against Liverpool, with both exceptions in this run coming at home (1-1 in February 2019, 3-2 in November 2021).
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
West Ham – 21.7%
Liverpool – 52.5%
Draw – 25.8%
Tuchel insists Bayern Munich coach search not affecting team's focus
Bayern Munich's search for coach Thomas Tuchel's successor is not distracting the team from their preparations for next week's Champions League semi-final first leg against Real Madrid or their final Bundesliga matches.
That was the vow from Tuchel before Bayern first face Eintracht Frankfurt on Saturday with the league title already secured by Bayer Leverkusen.
Bayern will part ways with Tuchel at the end of a disappointing domestic season, a year earlier than his contract.
Austria coach Ralf Rangnick confirmed this week there had been contact with Bayern while several other coaches have been linked with the club.
Tuchel, however, said the team was shutting out any such distractions as they chase a spot in the Champions League final.
"In the next 11 days it can only be football and the goals we can still reach," Tuchel told a press conference.
"We want to collect points [in the Bundesliga] to get the best result and reach the Champions League final.
"For anything else, there is just no capacity at the moment, whether it is comfortable or uncomfortable despite the many issues."
With no chance of domestic silverware and Bayern battling to hold on to second place, three points ahead of third-placed Stuttgart whom they face in 10 days, Tuchel said it was clear Tuesday's game against Real Madrid was on everyone's mind already.
"I can accept and it is important that we all accept it that there is this background noise against Frankfurt," Tuchel said.
"We don't have to tell ourselves a fairytale that we are only thinking 100% about Eintracht.
"There is this background noise that the Real Madrid game plays a role. When I get my coffee in the morning people don't say 'good luck for tomorrow' they say 'good luck for Tuesday' to me."
Bayern still have some injury concerns for the coming games with Dayot Upamecano doubtful after twisting an ankle in training and Leroy Sane racing to get fit in time for Tuesday.
Tuchel said: "We have a test [against Frankfurt] and either we are distracted or we find solutions. Put on ear plugs or headphones and study for the test. That is my task."
The former Chelsea and Paris Saint-Germain boss was also asked about over 12,000 Bayern supporters signing a petition asking for him to remain at the club.
"Even though this topic is good for me when they [the fans] wish you to stay, it's not something that is a priority and it isn't allowed to be a priority," he said.
"Whether it's pleasant or unpleasant, I don't allow myself to be influenced by it. We're only focusing on every day counting towards our goals and there is no exception here.
"This question is like the neighbour that is noisy at three in the morning, if we're honest! I'll set my headphones to noise-cancelling mode and ignore that.
"This topic won't help me on Saturday and won't help me on Tuesday - and it is not my topic."
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