It has been another off-season of change in Italy, but Serie A returns this week and another intriguing campaign awaits.
Inter were champions last term, ending Juventus' run of nine straight Scudetti, but they have not been able to keep their title-winning side together.
Romelu Lukaku is gone, as is coach Antonio Conte, while Massimiliano Allegri has returned to Juve to tee up another tilt.
So, what does that all mean for the coming season? Stats Perform attempts to find out.
The Stats Perform League Prediction Model, created by Stats Perform AI using Opta data, has analysed the division ahead of the new season to assign percentages to potential outcomes for each club.
The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) based on teams' attacking and defensive qualities, which considers four years' worth of results, with weighting based on recency and the quality of opposition. The season is then simulated 10,000 times to calculate the likelihood of each outcome.
Read on to see who can realistically compete with Inter and who should be looking over their shoulders...
THREE FIGHTING FOR TITLE
Inter might have lost some key men, but the model is backing a team that finished second and then first to lead the way again.
The Nerazzurri are given the best chance of taking the title (45.1 per cent), while they certainly should make the top four even without Lukaku and Conte, rated as a 94.2 per cent likelihood.
Unsurprisingly, Juve are the closest challengers to Inter's crown, with a 21.5 per cent shot.
It is not set to be a two-horse race, though, as Atalanta are the third and final team to be given a substantial chance at 19.6 per cent.
In fact, Atalanta's lowest probable finish of ninth is higher than Juve's 10th, with another exciting season expected for La Dea.
TOP FOUR SETTLED?
There is strength in depth in Serie A this season, but the model has identified a clear frontrunner for the fourth Champions League place.
Napoli, with a 9.4 per cent title chance, have a 68.6 per cent likelihood of making the top four, putting them well clear of the rest despite finishing fifth in 2020-21.
That means disappointment for big names like Milan, Lazio and Jose Mourinho's Roma.
Milan do have a 44.0 per cent shot at Champions League qualification, but that is a modest opportunity given they were second last term and led the league for half the season. A Scudetto triumph is rated at 3.6 per cent.
Lazio, under Maurizio Sarri, have a 14.9 per cent hope of a top-four place, while Mourinho clearly has work to do as rivals Roma are only given an 8.2 per cent likelihood.
Besides those sides, only Sassuolo – 1.1 per cent for the Champions League, 2.6 for the Europa League and 8.2 per cent for the Europa Conference League – are realistically also in the European picture.
STRAIGHT BACK DOWN AGAIN
The model does not make for pretty reading for the three promoted sides, who are all expected to spend only a single season in the top flight before returning to Serie B.
For Salernitana and Venezia, a particularly brutal campaign could be in store. They are highly likely to go down, rated at 95.9 per cent and 94.8 per cent respectively.
Empoli are given a slightly improved chance but are still expected to be relegated, at 79.3 per cent.
Torino's awful season, finishing 17th in 2020-21, should not be repeated, with merely a 4.3 per cent likelihood of demotion.
That still makes them sixth favourites for the drop, also behind Spezia (6.0 per cent) and Hellas Verona (5.4 per cent).
Returning fan favourite Alonso calls Liverpool 'one of Europe's best'
Bayer Leverkusen coach Xabi Alonso hailed his former club Liverpool as "one of Europe's best" as he prepares for his Anfield return.
Alonso, who spent five successful years at Anfield and helped Liverpool win the Champions League in 2005, returns to his former stomping ground when Leverkusen take on the Reds on Tuesday.
Arne Slot has won 12 of his first 14 matches in charge of Liverpool, including all three in the Champions League so far.
Leverkusen have only won one of their 11 away major European matches in England (D3 L7), and have lost their last two visits to Anfield, and Alonso is under no illusion as to the scale of the task that awaits the reigning Bundesliga champions.
"For us, it is a big challenge," he said.
"Liverpool at the moment are one of the best, if not the best, in Europe, they are showing that in the Premier League and Champions League, a good squad, great coach. We're looking forward to it. Let's see what happens.
"You can play 70 minutes great but in 20 minutes it [the game] is gone, so it is mentally and emotionally we need to be ready.
"In all areas, they are really strong, so the process works really well. [Slot] has done a fantastic job in three months."
Alonso played 210 times across all competitions for Liverpool between 2004 and 2009, scoring 18 goals and providing 20 assists.
After winning the Champions League with the Reds in 2005, he helped them reach the final in 2007, though they lost to Milan on that occasion.
However, the Spaniard does not think he will have too much time for a trip down memory lane.
"Unfortunately, there is no time for tourism – maybe a little run or walk," he said.
"I know the city very well, I love it, but tomorrow I will focus on the game and only the game.
"It feels great to be back here after a few years. It's always special. You notice the development of the club; the new stand looks amazing.
"It is a big game against Liverpool, it cannot get much better than that."
The omens are not great for Leverkusen, though.
Liverpool have lost one of their last 21 European meetings with German opponents (W14 D6), albeit that one defeat came against Leverkusen in 2002.
“We want everyone involved”- Chung hoping for massive support for Reggae Boyz in Nations League Quarterfinal against USA
General Secretary of the Jamaica Football Federation, Dennis Chung, is hoping that Jamaicans come out in their numbers to support the Reggae Boyz during both legs of their CONCACAF Nations League Quarter-final at the National Stadium in Kingston on Thursday, November 14 and Energizer Park in St. Louis, Missouri on Monday, November 18.
The Reggae Boyz will be looking for revenge over their American counterparts after suffering defeat to them at the semi-final stage of last season’s Nations League 1-3 in extra time. The USA went on to win the whole thing with a 2-0 victory over Mexico in the final while the Reggae Boyz beat Panama 1-0 to claim third place.
If the Boyz are to get over the hump this time around, Chung understands that a massive part of it will be the energy they receive from the thousands of Jamaican fans in attendance.
“We are at the quarterfinal stage. We want to ensure that we are there in our numbers supporting the Boyz because we have to make it past the mighty USA which, after we finish with them, they won’t be so mighty,” Chung said in press conference on Monday.
As such, three support groups for Jamaican football-Reggae Boyz Supporters Club, Reggae Football Fans Club and Reggae Boyz Community, are all making it possible for fans from all over the diaspora to have an opportunity to cheer on the Reggae Boyz live and in person.
“We want to welcome this partnership because this is a way for us now to reach our fanbase. We want to ensure that everyone is involved. At the last two games we had over 17,000 people in attendance and that, for us, is very important. It’s not just about playing football. It’s about getting everybody involved,” Chung said on Monday.
Errol Walters and Louis Grant, members of the Reggae Football Fans Club, were also on hand on Monday and gave an overview of this initiative.
“It’s an honor and a pleasure to be serving our country in this way. What we’re trying to do is create an opportunity for fans in the diaspora that we use our collective bargaining power to negotiate to go to the games,” Walters said.
“There are times when I’m in London and want to go to a game and I have no one to travel with so it was always my dream to create a database to say listen, who’s going to the game from where,” Walters added.
Grant explained that this idea came about because of the desire of members of the diaspora to be a driving force behind the support of the team on their journey to the World Cup in 2026.
“This was birthed out a desire to be the proverbial 12th man for our football teams and more so for the second iteration of the historic trip to the World Cup. We, as members of the diaspora here in the United States, think it’s only right that we play our part in drumming up support as far as leveraging air travel, accommodation, and support,”
“For example, we’ve been in touch with US Soccer with regards to the game in St. Louis. We’ve gotten a section that we can have all or most of our supporters concentrated to create that ‘Office’ vibe,”
“In my experience, we’ve gone to games in my area and you’d see our supporters and our flag sparsely across the various stadiums and we are of the opinion that if we were more concentrated in one section, it bodes well or it is a better look and feel for our team,” he added.
Fulham 2-1 Brentford: Wilson's late brace seals comeback win
Harry Wilson scored twice in stoppage time as Fulham came back to beat Brentford 2-1 in an enthralling West London derby.
Wilson was the hero from Fulham's bench on Monday, as Marco Silva's team – who were on the wrong end of a late comeback against Everton last time out in the Premier League – salvaged a victory from the jaws of defeat.
Fulham will feel it was a win they earned from a match they dominated from the off, with the Bees having taken the lead against the run of play through Vitaly Janelt's stunning 24th-minute strike.
But the Fulham pressure finally told when Wilson rose high to flick in his first in the 92nd minute, and – after Bernd Leno made a superb stop to thwart Brentford at the other end – the former Liverpool midfielder nodded in again to send Craven Cottage into raptures.
Fulham's win takes them up into ninth, while Brentford drop to 12th after suffering a fifth league loss of the season.
Data Debrief: Super-sub Wilson to the rescue
Fulham will feel they deserved to come away from that match with three points, having had 26 shots, 12 of which were on target, in an incredibly dominant display.
They also had 46 touches in the opposition box compared to Brentford's nine, but they could not make those count, at least until Wilson's late intervention as he finally broke through Brentford's stubborn defence.
The Welshman scored with both of his shots on target, having three attempts overall, with his goals coming from a combined 0.19 expected goals.
The Bees looked sure to get a first away win, and first clean sheet, of the Premier League season until their late lapse in concentration, and they have now dropped 14 points from winning positions in the competition this season, more than any other team.
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