It's a fact that 'free' transfers in football are, all things considered, quite expensive. Wages, signing fees, agent demands and general costs make any such deal have a sizeable imprint on a club's balance sheet.
Still, Paris Saint-Germain's signing of Gianluigi Donnarumma for a big fat zero in transfer fees sounds like a sensational piece of business – particularly after his Euro 2020 heroics.
The Italy goalkeeper has left Milan, his boyhood club, to join Mauricio Pochettino's side where he hopes to be able to challenge for the biggest club trophies, most obviously the Champions League.
Certainly, Donnarumma is right to aspire to the top prizes. This is a player who made 200 appearances for the Rossoneri by the age of just 21 years and 146 days, who was valued at €170million by agent Mino Raiola when he was just 16.
PSG have secured a bargain, for sure – but is it one they really needed? Incumbent number one Keylor Navas certainly did not seem to think so when he posted to Instagram "gift your absence to those who do not value your presence" shortly after the Donnarumma rumours first emerged.
As Opta data shows, Navas, a four-time Champions League winner, may well have a point.
First, it's important to stress once again that Donnarumma is an excellent signing. PSG are recruiting a highly experienced yet young goalkeeper without paying a transfer fee; a goalkeeper whose market value is only likely to increase over the coming decade – indeed, it has in the past week alone – should Les Parisiens decide to cash in at any point.
However, it's also true that, if the short-term goal is simply to improve the first XI with a view to winning the Champions League, replacing Navas with Donnarumma may not be a fool-proof move.
In 2020-21, Donnarumma kept 14 clean sheets in 37 matches in all competitions. Navas also managed 14 shut-outs, having played in eight fewer games. The Costa Rican conceded only 18 goals in those matches, whereas Donnarumma let in 38.
Donnarumma produced more saves (92) than Navas (74), but the older man's save percentage was far higher: 80.43 per cent, compared to 70.08. In fact, Navas boasted the highest save percentage of any keeper in Europe's top-five leagues last term who started at least 10 matches, a fraction above Atletico Madrid's Jan Oblak (80 per cent). Donnarumma came 25th in those rankings.
Navas' distribution was better, too: his passing accuracy (85.65) was better than that of Donnarumma (77.04), with only three regular keepers in Europe's top-five leagues posting better numbers. Donnarumma did at least surpass Navas for keeper sweepings, which are defined as any time a keeper anticipates danger and rushes off their line to try either to cut out an attacking pass (in a race with the opposition player) or to close down an opposition player: he completed nine of nine such 'sweepings', with Navas on five out of five.
Going further and looking at expected goals on target – a way of building on expected goals that takes into account the quality of the attempt on goal – we can highlight how well these keepers have done to keep high-quality shots on target from going in. This is done by subtracting goals conceded (excluding own goals) from xGOT conceded, giving us 'goals prevented'. And it's another big tick for Navas.
In Ligue 1 last term, if we exclude penalties and own goals, Navas let in 17 goals from an xGOT conceded total of 24.1, giving him a figure of 7.1 goals prevented. In other words, he would reasonably have been expected to concede roughly seven more goals based on the quality of shots on target he faced. Meanwhile, Donnarumma conceded 35 from an xGOT of 34.1, giving him a goals prevented figure of -0.9 – not terrible, but nothing to shout about.
Last season's figures were not isolated, either. If you look back over Donnarumma's 215 club appearances since his Milan debut on October 25, 2015, Navas' consistency as a shot-stopper is superior.
Donnarumma conceded 227 goals for Milan (excluding own goals) in all competitions from an xGOT figure of 244.4, giving him a goals prevented tally of 17.4. That's a strong return – better, for instance, than Manchester United's David de Gea (16.6) and Liverpool's Alisson (16.1) – but, again, it's lower than that of Navas (20.3).
For balance, both of them are a long way behind the top performer in this metric over that time frame. That man, unsurprisingly, is Jan Oblak of Atletico Madrid, with a quite remarkable goals prevented figure of 44.5.
It's as yet unclear what Navas' plans will be now that Donnarumma has moved to Parc des Princes, but a keeper with his pedigree and medal collection is unlikely to settle for a back-up role. And nor should he: Donnarumma might be PSG's future, but Navas does not deserve to be dispensed with in the present.
Philadelphia Union v Real Salt Lake: Curtin keen to maintain tough reputation
Jim Curtin is keen to see the Philadelphia Union retain their reputation as a tough team to play against, with his side still unbeaten this season ahead of Saturday's visit of Real Salt Lake.
The Union sit sixth in the Eastern Conference standings with three wins and four draws so far this term, their latest stalemate coming by a 2-2 scoreline against Atlanta United last time out.
While Curtin was somewhat disappointed to see the Union's three-match winning streak ended in Georgia, he is pleased by the resilience they have shown ahead of their return to Subaru Park.
"Whether people in the public think we're good or think we're bad, they will at least say we're tough to play against," Curtin said.
"I think that unequivocally across the board, there's not a coach or general manager or fan in this league that would say we're an easy team to deal with and play against.
"Part of that is not losing, finding ways to turn losses into ties, ties into wins, and we'll look to try to continue to do that and really protect our home field."
Philadelphia face a tough test this weekend, though, against a Salt Lake team currently flying high in third in the Western Conference.
Pablo Mastroeni's men are unbeaten in their last four games, producing their best performance of 2024 to date last time out as they thrashed the Chicago Fire 4-0 on the road.
"I'm so excited about what we can do as a group, as players and coaches, and the onus is on us to continue to get better and really push this thing forward," Mastroeni said after that win.
"I think we've established a decent standard, and we know where we are at our best and where we are lacking, but it's testament to the work the guys are doing during the week."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Philadelphia Union – Mikael Uhre
Uhre scored the Union's first goal as they fought back from two goals down to draw in Atlanta.
He has four goal involvements in MLS play this term (three goals, one assist), a tally only matched by Daniel Gazdag and Julian Carranza among his Union team-mates.
Real Salt Lake – Cristian Arango
Arango scored twice against the Fire last week and has now been involved in at least one goal in four straight regular-season road games, equalling the longest such streak in Real Salt Lake's history.
Might he break new ground at Subaru Park?
MATCH PREDICTION – PHILADELPHIA UNION WIN
The Union's only win in 12 all-time meetings with Real Salt Lake was a 4-1 home victory when the teams last met at Subaru Park in May 2018 (six draws, five losses). This will be the sides' first meeting on any ground since June 2019.
While the visitors are unbeaten in their last five matches (three wins, two draws), this could be their toughest test to date.
Philadelphia have only lost one of their last 41 regular-season home matches (28 wins, 12 draws), including going unbeaten through their last 16 (nine wins, seven draws), a run dating back over a year.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Philadelphia Union – 57.8%
Real Salt Lake – 17.3%
Draw – 24.9%
New York City v Charlotte FC: Cushing wants more from in-form hosts
Nick Cushing is pushing for more as New York City bid for a third successive victory against Charlotte FC at Yankee Stadium on Saturday.
NYCFC are eighth in the Eastern Conference standings after back-to-back 2-0 home wins over the New England Revolution and D.C. United, having gone four unbeaten (two wins, two draws).
Their consecutive wins have come after a run of just two victories in their previous 10 (three draws, five losses), but Cushing does not want his team to stop there.
"I think the three-game run is something that we have a huge desire to achieve," Cushing said.
"I said after the game in the locker room, it has been a long time since we've gone back-to-back. It's been too long, really, since we went back-to-back, so it's good to enjoy that after the game.
"Now we have the opportunity to do a three-game run. We have to make sure we do that before we think about anything else."
Charlotte have gone the opposite way in recent weeks, losing two of their last three games to leave them behind New York on goal difference.
Former Aston Villa boss Dean Smith acknowledges they need to show more in the forward areas after averaging just one goal per game in 2024.
"That's certainly an area where we need to be better, I think we all know that. We've been working on it for the last three or four weeks," Smith said.
"I think defensively we've been really solid. In terms of our creativity, we've had some big chances that we haven't taken.
"Last week [in a 3-0 loss to Minnesota United] there were some moments we didn't take as well, technically we just failed on that."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
New York City – Santiago Rodriguez
Rodriguez recorded a goal and an assist in NYCFC's win over D.C. last week and now has four goals and one assist this season, with all of those involvements coming at home.
Since the start of last season, 14 (seven goals, seven assists) of Rodriguez's 16 goal contributions in regular-season matches have come at home.
Charlotte FC – Ashley Westwood
Charlotte have failed to score in two of their last three games, and a lack of creativity has been a theme of their campaign to date.
Captain Westwood leads all Charlotte players for chances created this season, with 13, and he could be key if they are to hit the goal trail.
MATCH PREDICTION – NEW YORK CITY WIN
Charlotte are unbeaten in five all-time meetings with New York (four wins, one draw), including a 1-0 win over them in the teams' season opener on February 24.
The Crown are the only team NYCFC have faced more than once in MLS play and never defeated, but that may just change this week.
New York have won back-to-back matches to nil, a major defensive upturn after they managed just one clean sheet in their previous 10. Charlotte, meanwhile, have only earned one point from four road games in MLS this year, losing their last three in a row.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
New York City – 51.8%
Charlotte FC – 21.1%
Draw – 27.1%
FC Cincinnati v Colorado Rapids: Armas wants players to enjoy rise
Chris Armas says his Colorado Rapids players deserve to enjoy their meteoric rise up the MLS standings, and he is confident they will not get carried away ahead of their trip to FC Cincinnati.
Colorado sit fourth in the Western Conference with 15 points from nine games, winning three of their last four after an inconsistent start to the year.
They benefitted from two own goals as they beat FC Dallas 2-1 last time out, and Armas has no issue with his players enjoying their place in the standings, particularly given they finished rock bottom of the West in 2023.
"I see the boys looking at the TV where we have the standings posted, and they see that we're climbing, so it's all good stuff," Armas said.
"From day one the message that I preached is that everything we do will be based on hard work and that we will never get too low on ourselves.
"We don't get too high, the boys are realistic. That part's not that hard and our group is hungry and looking to improve every day."
Supporters' Shield holders Cincinnati have had an up-and-down start, going unbeaten through their first five games of the year before suffering back-to-back defeats against the New York Red Bulls and CF Montreal (both 1-2).
However, Pat Noonan's men bounced back with a statement 2-1 victory over Atlanta United last week, and defender Matt Miazga hopes that result will be a turning point.
"I look at everybody and I'm like, 'Alright, I see in his face, I see in his face. We want it,'" Miazga said.
"We all realised we are a top team, with big personalities, big characters, and it's time to show up in big moments."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
FC Cincinnati – Luciano Acosta
Acosta assisted Cincinnati's equaliser against Atlanta last Saturday before scoring the winner two minutes later.
That was Acosta's 13th regular-season match with a goal and an assist since the start of the 2022 season, three more than any other player in MLS has managed during that time.
Colorado Rapids – Djordje Mihailovic
Mihailovic has created at least twice as many chances as any other Colorado player in MLS this term (16), with Keegan Rosenberry and Sam Vines creating eight apiece.
He also has two goals and one assist to his name, while only Rafael Navarro (16) has bettered his 10 successful dribbles among his team-mates.
MATCH PREDICTION – FC CINCINNATI WIN
Cincinnati earned their first win over the Rapids last May, triumphing 1-0 on the road. The Rapids had won the first two meetings between the sides, including a 2-0 victory on their only previous trip to Cincinnati.
The Rapids also enter Saturday's game having won successive regular-season matches for the first time since September 2022, eyeing their first three-game winning streak since August 2021.
However, Cincinnati ended their poor run by beating Atlanta last time out and have, despite some underwhelming performances, only lost two of their nine league games this term (four wins, three draws). On home soil, the Supporters' Shield holders are favourites.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
FC Cincinnati – 49.3%
Colorado Rapids – 23.3%
Draw – 27.4%
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