Euro 2020 is disappearing before our eyes, with the delayed tournament somehow already at the business end as we head into the final three matches.
It's been a thrill ride since the very beginning. From Italy making a sparkling start and Denmark rallying after Christian Eriksen's medical emergency, to France falling at the last 16 and England reaching the semi-finals of a second successive major tournament.
Italy, England, Spain and Denmark are all that's left as Euro 2020 enters its final week, and at this point it seems particularly tricky to call, particularly between first three.
But, given how integral statistics are to football these days, data can potentially give you edge when attempting to predict certain outcomes, and this is where Stats Perform's Artificial Intelligence team comes in as they've used Opta's extensive data reserves to quantify each semi-finalist's chances of winning tournament.
Every match has been run through the Stats Perform Euros Prediction model to calculate the estimated probability of the outcome (win, draw or loss). This uses odds from betting markets and Stats Perform team rankings, which are based on historical and recent performances and also takes into consideration the strength of each side's opponents.
The games are then simulated 40,000 times and analysed, providing the AI team with a percentage for each nation, showing the probability of them ultimately lifting the trophy at Wembley on July 11.
Without any further ado, let's take a look at the results…
Denmark (8.8 per cent chance of winning Euro 2020)
The fact Denmark even got out of their group was an achievement in itself as they became the first team to ever reach the knockout phase having lost their opening two matches. Yet, here we are.
The Danes are into the last four for the first time since winning the competition in 1992 and have really hit their stride since their two early defeats, with only Spain (12) outscoring Kasper Hjulmands' men until this point (11) – that haul is the most they've ever managed at a major tournament.
Denmark have projected a real sense of unity since Eriksen collapsed against Finland, and it's hard to believe they will fear anyone at this point.
Nevertheless, England should represent trickier opposition than the likes of Wales and the Czech Republic, which is perhaps reflected by the fact their 8.8 per cent chance of winning the title is the lowest of the four remaining teams.
But if standout performers such as Joakim Maehle, Simon Kjaer and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg continue to deliver the goods, who's to say they cannot emulate the 1992 vintage?
Spain (23.1 per cent)
Luis Enrique's Spain have been a fascinating watch at Euro 2020, partly because they somehow manage to flitter between exceptional and unrefined. Their erratic nature has become one of the sideshows of the tournament.
For example, only the Netherlands (53) have forced more high turnovers than Spain, while La Roja are the sole side to break the 100 barrier in terms of sequences of 10 or more passes (147). They only allow their opponents 8.3 passes on average in the defensive third before they initiate a defensive action, indicating they are the most intense pressers at the tournament, and their haul of 12 goals is more than anyone else.
Yet, their xGA (expected goals against) of 6.8 is comfortably the worst of the four teams left, and their xG underperformance of 3.6 is the biggest of all 24 teams. In short, these points suggest that not only have Spain been lucky to only concede five times, they are also the most wasteful team at Euro 2020.
That's obviously not helped by the fact Gerard Moreno (no goals from 3.3 xG) and Alvaro Morata (two goals from 3.95 xG) are among the three players with the worst xG underperformance records in the competition.
However, they've got this far and have still crafted plenty of goal-scoring opportunities, with their record of 25 big chances a tournament-high. If the penny drops with Spain's forwards and they start to convert in line with their xG, they could have real joy.
England (29.1 per cent)
It would be fair to say England's performances in the group stage, although not alarming, certainly didn't inspire a huge amount of confidence as they scored just two goals. But in the two games since, they have netted six times and attracted significant acclaim.
The fact they don't necessarily stand out in many specific team metrics (perhaps bar 10+ passing sequences – 98, second to Spain) is arguably partly down to how flexible Gareth Southgate's team have been in their approach to specific games. For example, their passes per defensive action (PPDA) dropped from 13.7 against Scotland to 25.9 against Germany, suggesting they were concerned about the German midfield playing through their press and instead sat back more in order to cut off passing routes.
Of course, adapting to your opponents is hardly revolutionary, most teams do it to a certain extent, but in a tournament where Spain and Italy have almost religiously stuck to principals and formations that govern their setups, England have chopped and changed.
It's clearly worked as well given the fact the Three Lions have equalled a major-tournament record of five successive clean sheets, while their 2.95 xGA (with no goals conceded) leads the way at Euro 2020.
With their defence seemingly watertight and Harry Kane finding some confidence with three goals in two games, England look in great shape. If our prediction model took into consideration that all of the remaining games are to be at Wembley, they'd likely be a bit closer to top spot.
Italy (38.9 per cent)
It seems like a long time ago now that Italy came into Euro 2020 as – some claimed at the time – unknown quantities. The common conception was that their 27-match unbeaten run coming into the tournament was misleading because most of the games were said to have been against sub-optimal opposition.
Well, they are now at 32 games unbeaten having won or drawn all of their five matches to this point at Euro 2020, setting a new national record in the process.
But, more than that, they've been utterly joyful to watch. They are relentless in attack, as highlighted by their tournament-leading shot (11) and goal-ending high turnovers (three), but also impressive at the back having only conceded one non-penalty goal.
Built around a solid core of Giorgio Chiellini, Leonardo Bonucci, Jorginho, Marco Verratti and Nicolo Barella that expertly blends craft and guile arguably unlike any team at Euro 2020, Roberto Mancini's turned Italy into a side that's not only been generally fun to watch, but also effective.
Spain represent a completely different challenge to any other side Italy have faced thus far, yet Luis Enrique's men have afforded their opponents plenty of chances. The Azzurri have been consistent throughout in attack, as demonstrated by their 11 goals from 10.3 xG. Without the one own goal in their favour, it would be 10 from 10.3 xG.
Italy have shown no major weaknesses en route to the semi-finals, and as such our model suggests it is they who have the greatest chance of success this week.
Ramos in 'final phase' of recovery, says PSG boss Luis Enrique
Luis Enrique confirmed that Paris Saint-Germain striker Goncalo Ramos is nearing a return to action after sustaining an ankle injury on the opening day of the season.
Ramos, who scored 14 goals in 40 appearances in all competitions in his debut season for PSG last year, has not featured for the Parisiens since their 4-1 win over Le Havre in August.
But despite his absence, Luis Enrique's side sit top of the Ligue 1 standings ahead of welcoming Toulouse to the Parc des Princes this Friday.
They are also the top scorers in the division, netting 33 goals in 11 matches so far, nine more than Marseille, who are second in the scoring table.
And as the hectic festive schedule kickstarts, Luis Enrique revealed Ramos has already returned to full first-team training.
"It was the 25th and that is in a few days, so it is the final phase of his recovery," Luis Enrique told reporters.
"As for when he is available (to play) we do not know. We will see in training, he is doing really well and is in full training."
Following Friday's fixture against Toulouse, PSG travel to the Allianz Arena to face Bayern Munich in the Champions League, hoping to ignite their European campaign.
The Ligue 1 champions are at risk of failing to qualify for the knockout stages of the competition having taken four points from their first four games this season.
They currently sit 25th in the new 36-team league table, and with an important week coming up, Luis Enrique insisted he would think about rotating his squad.
"You mustn't only think about the game against Toulouse but also the workload for players with their national teams," he said.
"So we will make decisions based on what we think. We want to win against Toulouse, which is our main target."
Ousmane Dembele did not feature during the international break after he left the France training camp with a hamstring issue, though he is expected to feature this Friday.
"In theory, it was nothing serious. I don't think it was a big issue and these things happen during the season," Luis Enrique said.
"It is normal with such a busy schedule, he should be available to play."
While Toulouse sit 10th in the league standings, they will provide PSG with a difficult test. They come into the game on the back of three consecutive wins, all without conceding a goal.
PSG have also not won any of their last two meetings against Toulouse (D1 L1), and could go three games without a win against the Violets for the second time in the 21st century after a winless streak between December 2007 to October 2009 (five).
Hurzeler: Brighton need to 'work to get momentum' despite Man City win
Brighton and Hove Albion boss Fabian Hurzeler believes his players need to rebuild their momentum following a two-week break after their 2-1 victory over Manchester City.
The Seagulls came back from a goal down in dramatic fashion to inflict City's fourth successive defeat in all competitions last time out.
Though the international break came at a bad time for his in-form team, Hurzeler refused to criticise the schedule ahead of their trip to the Vitality Stadium.
"You always have to work to get momentum. It's always a new game and no matter if there's a break between games or not, the game starts from zero," he told a pre-match press conference.
"You have to go into the game and do the things you can influence to the maximum.
"You can't say 'we won against Manchester City and now the momentum will keep going', it's about fighting for momentum.
"It's a new game, a different challenge and a really big challenge because Bournemouth are one of the strongest teams at the moment."
Bournemouth have also beaten City recently, with the Cherries also triumphing over Arsenal and Southampton in their last three home matches.
"They can play very intense, they run a lot, they have individual quality, they are in good shape. For me at the moment, they're one of the best teams in the league," Hurzeler said of the Cherries.
Bournemouth manager Andoni Iraola, meanwhile, was keen to stress that his players need to keep their concentration against Brighton. The Cherries were beaten 3-2 away to Brentford last time out, despite having taken the lead twice.
“You never want to lose the last game before the break because at the end you remember the last feeling. We will remember this week, the actions here against Brentford," he said.
"We can prepare very well for the game against Brighton, that is going to be also very demanding.”
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Bournemouth – Evanilson
Evanilson has scored four goals for Bournemouth since joining the club in August. He is tied with Antoine Semenyo as the club's top scorer, although his goals have come in one fewer appearance.
The Brazilian forward has found the net in three successive matches and will become the first Bournemouth player since Callum Wilson in 2019 to score in four straight top-flight games should he do so on Saturday.
Brighton – Danny Welbeck
Danny Welbeck is Brighton's leading scorer so far this season, with six league goals – a total that includes three opening goals.
He has scored two away goals so far in the current campaign, coming on the opening day at Everton and the only goal of the game at Newcastle United last month.
MATCH PREDICTION: DRAW
Bournemouth come into this in 12th place in the Premier League on 15 points after 11 matches, having lost 3-2 to Brentford in their most recent game.
At home, though, they have taken 10 points from five matches (three wins, one draw, one loss) and come into this with three successive victories at the Vitality Stadium. They have never won four Premier League home games in a row.
Brighton have earned seven points from five away games (two wins, one draw and two losses) and, despite being six places above their hosts in the table, there are just four points between them.
While Bournemouth have won four of their five Premier League home games against Brighton, Fabian Hurzeler's side come into this in good form having won three of their last five (one draw, one loss) Premier League matches – as many victories as they managed across their previous 16 league games (six draws, seven defeats).
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Bournemouth – 41.2%
Draw – 25.1%
Brighton – 33.7%
McKenna fired up for 'biggest game in world football' against Man United
Kieran McKenna believes Ipswich Town's Premier League clash with Manchester United will be the "biggest game in world football" this weekend.
United are in action under new manager Ruben Amorim for the first time since the Portuguese officially replaced Arne Slot as head coach.
While plenty of focus is on the visitors at Portman Road, Ipswich are fired up after beating Tottenham 2-1 before the international break.
That was Ipswich's first league win of the season – and their first in the Premier League in 22 years – and now attention turns to facing United.
McKenna, who previously coached United, said at a fan event this week: "Sunday, what a game. It's one we're really, really looking forward to.
"Not for the personal connection, but as manager of Ipswich Town, to be on that stage, it's what we've worked so hard for.
"It's the biggest game in world football anywhere this weekend, the biggest game in the world in the biggest sport in the world and it's at Portman Road."
Ipswich's surprise win at Tottenham last time out moved them up to 17th, while United are 13th after beating Leicester City 3-0 in Ruud van Nistelrooy's final game in caretaker charge.
Amorim took his first training session on Monday, albeit with many first-team stars away on international duty, and the former Sporting CP boss believes his style of play will be clear to see from the off.
"I think you will see an idea," he told the club's website. "You could like it or not, I don't know, but you will see an idea.
"You will see a positioning. You will see something that we want to reach that kind of level. You will feel that.
"We have to know it's [only] two trainings before the first match. This is the best league in the world. But if I have to say something to you, [it's that] you will see an idea. This I can guarantee."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Ipswich Town - Liam Delap
Delap scored what proved to be Ipswich's winner against Tottenham and has now netted six of his side's 12 Premier League goals this term.
That makes the Manchester City academy product one of only three players to have scored at least half of his side's goals in the competition this season, along with Erling Haaland at City (55%) and Chris Wood at Nottingham Forest (53%).
Manchester United - Alejandro Garnacho
Garnacho was among the scorers against Leicester two weeks ago and has now been directly involved in 20 Premier League goals for United (13 goals and seven assists).
The Argentina international is one of only two non-British players to reach that figure for United before turning 21, along with Cristiano Ronaldo (25 goals).
MATCH PREDICTION: MANCHESTER UNITED WIN
Ipswich are seeking back-to-back Premier League wins for the first time since February 2022, with that run also beginning with a 2-1 victory against Tottenham.
The Tractor Boys are the only side in the competition without a home win this season. Only five newly promoted clubs have failed to win any of their first six home matches, all of whom went back down.
United have won 17 of their past 19 Premier League games against newly promoted opponents, meanwhile, including nine wins in a row in away fixtures.
The Red Devils were 1-0 winners on their most recent league trip to Portman Road in April 2022, but only once have they won successive league games away to Ipswich.
However, the Tractor Boys have lost four of their past five league matches against Man United, failing to score in each of those losses.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Ipswich Town - 22.2%
Draw - 23%
Manchester United - 54.8%
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