Euro 2020 is disappearing before our eyes, with the delayed tournament somehow already at the business end as we head into the final three matches.
It's been a thrill ride since the very beginning. From Italy making a sparkling start and Denmark rallying after Christian Eriksen's medical emergency, to France falling at the last 16 and England reaching the semi-finals of a second successive major tournament.
Italy, England, Spain and Denmark are all that's left as Euro 2020 enters its final week, and at this point it seems particularly tricky to call, particularly between first three.
But, given how integral statistics are to football these days, data can potentially give you edge when attempting to predict certain outcomes, and this is where Stats Perform's Artificial Intelligence team comes in as they've used Opta's extensive data reserves to quantify each semi-finalist's chances of winning tournament.
Every match has been run through the Stats Perform Euros Prediction model to calculate the estimated probability of the outcome (win, draw or loss). This uses odds from betting markets and Stats Perform team rankings, which are based on historical and recent performances and also takes into consideration the strength of each side's opponents.
The games are then simulated 40,000 times and analysed, providing the AI team with a percentage for each nation, showing the probability of them ultimately lifting the trophy at Wembley on July 11.
Without any further ado, let's take a look at the results…
Denmark (8.8 per cent chance of winning Euro 2020)
The fact Denmark even got out of their group was an achievement in itself as they became the first team to ever reach the knockout phase having lost their opening two matches. Yet, here we are.
The Danes are into the last four for the first time since winning the competition in 1992 and have really hit their stride since their two early defeats, with only Spain (12) outscoring Kasper Hjulmands' men until this point (11) – that haul is the most they've ever managed at a major tournament.
Denmark have projected a real sense of unity since Eriksen collapsed against Finland, and it's hard to believe they will fear anyone at this point.
Nevertheless, England should represent trickier opposition than the likes of Wales and the Czech Republic, which is perhaps reflected by the fact their 8.8 per cent chance of winning the title is the lowest of the four remaining teams.
But if standout performers such as Joakim Maehle, Simon Kjaer and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg continue to deliver the goods, who's to say they cannot emulate the 1992 vintage?
Spain (23.1 per cent)
Luis Enrique's Spain have been a fascinating watch at Euro 2020, partly because they somehow manage to flitter between exceptional and unrefined. Their erratic nature has become one of the sideshows of the tournament.
For example, only the Netherlands (53) have forced more high turnovers than Spain, while La Roja are the sole side to break the 100 barrier in terms of sequences of 10 or more passes (147). They only allow their opponents 8.3 passes on average in the defensive third before they initiate a defensive action, indicating they are the most intense pressers at the tournament, and their haul of 12 goals is more than anyone else.
Yet, their xGA (expected goals against) of 6.8 is comfortably the worst of the four teams left, and their xG underperformance of 3.6 is the biggest of all 24 teams. In short, these points suggest that not only have Spain been lucky to only concede five times, they are also the most wasteful team at Euro 2020.
That's obviously not helped by the fact Gerard Moreno (no goals from 3.3 xG) and Alvaro Morata (two goals from 3.95 xG) are among the three players with the worst xG underperformance records in the competition.
However, they've got this far and have still crafted plenty of goal-scoring opportunities, with their record of 25 big chances a tournament-high. If the penny drops with Spain's forwards and they start to convert in line with their xG, they could have real joy.
England (29.1 per cent)
It would be fair to say England's performances in the group stage, although not alarming, certainly didn't inspire a huge amount of confidence as they scored just two goals. But in the two games since, they have netted six times and attracted significant acclaim.
The fact they don't necessarily stand out in many specific team metrics (perhaps bar 10+ passing sequences – 98, second to Spain) is arguably partly down to how flexible Gareth Southgate's team have been in their approach to specific games. For example, their passes per defensive action (PPDA) dropped from 13.7 against Scotland to 25.9 against Germany, suggesting they were concerned about the German midfield playing through their press and instead sat back more in order to cut off passing routes.
Of course, adapting to your opponents is hardly revolutionary, most teams do it to a certain extent, but in a tournament where Spain and Italy have almost religiously stuck to principals and formations that govern their setups, England have chopped and changed.
It's clearly worked as well given the fact the Three Lions have equalled a major-tournament record of five successive clean sheets, while their 2.95 xGA (with no goals conceded) leads the way at Euro 2020.
With their defence seemingly watertight and Harry Kane finding some confidence with three goals in two games, England look in great shape. If our prediction model took into consideration that all of the remaining games are to be at Wembley, they'd likely be a bit closer to top spot.
Italy (38.9 per cent)
It seems like a long time ago now that Italy came into Euro 2020 as – some claimed at the time – unknown quantities. The common conception was that their 27-match unbeaten run coming into the tournament was misleading because most of the games were said to have been against sub-optimal opposition.
Well, they are now at 32 games unbeaten having won or drawn all of their five matches to this point at Euro 2020, setting a new national record in the process.
But, more than that, they've been utterly joyful to watch. They are relentless in attack, as highlighted by their tournament-leading shot (11) and goal-ending high turnovers (three), but also impressive at the back having only conceded one non-penalty goal.
Built around a solid core of Giorgio Chiellini, Leonardo Bonucci, Jorginho, Marco Verratti and Nicolo Barella that expertly blends craft and guile arguably unlike any team at Euro 2020, Roberto Mancini's turned Italy into a side that's not only been generally fun to watch, but also effective.
Spain represent a completely different challenge to any other side Italy have faced thus far, yet Luis Enrique's men have afforded their opponents plenty of chances. The Azzurri have been consistent throughout in attack, as demonstrated by their 11 goals from 10.3 xG. Without the one own goal in their favour, it would be 10 from 10.3 xG.
Italy have shown no major weaknesses en route to the semi-finals, and as such our model suggests it is they who have the greatest chance of success this week.
Returning fan favourite Alonso calls Liverpool 'one of Europe's best'
Bayer Leverkusen coach Xabi Alonso hailed his former club Liverpool as "one of Europe's best" as he prepares for his Anfield return.
Alonso, who spent five successful years at Anfield and helped Liverpool win the Champions League in 2005, returns to his former stomping ground when Leverkusen take on the Reds on Tuesday.
Arne Slot has won 12 of his first 14 matches in charge of Liverpool, including all three in the Champions League so far.
Leverkusen have only won one of their 11 away major European matches in England (D3 L7), and have lost their last two visits to Anfield, and Alonso is under no illusion as to the scale of the task that awaits the reigning Bundesliga champions.
"For us, it is a big challenge," he said.
"Liverpool at the moment are one of the best, if not the best, in Europe, they are showing that in the Premier League and Champions League, a good squad, great coach. We're looking forward to it. Let's see what happens.
"You can play 70 minutes great but in 20 minutes it [the game] is gone, so it is mentally and emotionally we need to be ready.
"In all areas, they are really strong, so the process works really well. [Slot] has done a fantastic job in three months."
Alonso played 210 times across all competitions for Liverpool between 2004 and 2009, scoring 18 goals and providing 20 assists.
After winning the Champions League with the Reds in 2005, he helped them reach the final in 2007, though they lost to Milan on that occasion.
However, the Spaniard does not think he will have too much time for a trip down memory lane.
"Unfortunately, there is no time for tourism – maybe a little run or walk," he said.
"I know the city very well, I love it, but tomorrow I will focus on the game and only the game.
"It feels great to be back here after a few years. It's always special. You notice the development of the club; the new stand looks amazing.
"It is a big game against Liverpool, it cannot get much better than that."
The omens are not great for Leverkusen, though.
Liverpool have lost one of their last 21 European meetings with German opponents (W14 D6), albeit that one defeat came against Leverkusen in 2002.
“We want everyone involved”- Chung hoping for massive support for Reggae Boyz in Nations League Quarterfinal against USA
General Secretary of the Jamaica Football Federation, Dennis Chung, is hoping that Jamaicans come out in their numbers to support the Reggae Boyz during both legs of their CONCACAF Nations League Quarter-final at the National Stadium in Kingston on Thursday, November 14 and Energizer Park in St. Louis, Missouri on Monday, November 18.
The Reggae Boyz will be looking for revenge over their American counterparts after suffering defeat to them at the semi-final stage of last season’s Nations League 1-3 in extra time. The USA went on to win the whole thing with a 2-0 victory over Mexico in the final while the Reggae Boyz beat Panama 1-0 to claim third place.
If the Boyz are to get over the hump this time around, Chung understands that a massive part of it will be the energy they receive from the thousands of Jamaican fans in attendance.
“We are at the quarterfinal stage. We want to ensure that we are there in our numbers supporting the Boyz because we have to make it past the mighty USA which, after we finish with them, they won’t be so mighty,” Chung said in press conference on Monday.
As such, three support groups for Jamaican football-Reggae Boyz Supporters Club, Reggae Football Fans Club and Reggae Boyz Community, are all making it possible for fans from all over the diaspora to have an opportunity to cheer on the Reggae Boyz live and in person.
“We want to welcome this partnership because this is a way for us now to reach our fanbase. We want to ensure that everyone is involved. At the last two games we had over 17,000 people in attendance and that, for us, is very important. It’s not just about playing football. It’s about getting everybody involved,” Chung said on Monday.
Errol Walters and Louis Grant, members of the Reggae Football Fans Club, were also on hand on Monday and gave an overview of this initiative.
“It’s an honor and a pleasure to be serving our country in this way. What we’re trying to do is create an opportunity for fans in the diaspora that we use our collective bargaining power to negotiate to go to the games,” Walters said.
“There are times when I’m in London and want to go to a game and I have no one to travel with so it was always my dream to create a database to say listen, who’s going to the game from where,” Walters added.
Grant explained that this idea came about because of the desire of members of the diaspora to be a driving force behind the support of the team on their journey to the World Cup in 2026.
“This was birthed out a desire to be the proverbial 12th man for our football teams and more so for the second iteration of the historic trip to the World Cup. We, as members of the diaspora here in the United States, think it’s only right that we play our part in drumming up support as far as leveraging air travel, accommodation, and support,”
“For example, we’ve been in touch with US Soccer with regards to the game in St. Louis. We’ve gotten a section that we can have all or most of our supporters concentrated to create that ‘Office’ vibe,”
“In my experience, we’ve gone to games in my area and you’d see our supporters and our flag sparsely across the various stadiums and we are of the opinion that if we were more concentrated in one section, it bodes well or it is a better look and feel for our team,” he added.
Fulham 2-1 Brentford: Wilson's late brace seals comeback win
Harry Wilson scored twice in stoppage time as Fulham came back to beat Brentford 2-1 in an enthralling West London derby.
Wilson was the hero from Fulham's bench on Monday, as Marco Silva's team – who were on the wrong end of a late comeback against Everton last time out in the Premier League – salvaged a victory from the jaws of defeat.
Fulham will feel it was a win they earned from a match they dominated from the off, with the Bees having taken the lead against the run of play through Vitaly Janelt's stunning 24th-minute strike.
But the Fulham pressure finally told when Wilson rose high to flick in his first in the 92nd minute, and – after Bernd Leno made a superb stop to thwart Brentford at the other end – the former Liverpool midfielder nodded in again to send Craven Cottage into raptures.
Fulham's win takes them up into ninth, while Brentford drop to 12th after suffering a fifth league loss of the season.
Data Debrief: Super-sub Wilson to the rescue
Fulham will feel they deserved to come away from that match with three points, having had 26 shots, 12 of which were on target, in an incredibly dominant display.
They also had 46 touches in the opposition box compared to Brentford's nine, but they could not make those count, at least until Wilson's late intervention as he finally broke through Brentford's stubborn defence.
The Welshman scored with both of his shots on target, having three attempts overall, with his goals coming from a combined 0.19 expected goals.
The Bees looked sure to get a first away win, and first clean sheet, of the Premier League season until their late lapse in concentration, and they have now dropped 14 points from winning positions in the competition this season, more than any other team.
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