Brazil v Peru: Copa America hosts hope for repeat of 2019 final

By Sports Desk June 16, 2021

Brazil head into Thursday's Copa America clash with Peru with history firmly on their side.

Having taken on hosting duties at the last minute, Brazil started their Copa campaign with a win over Venezuela last time out.

Their second Group B game sees Tite's side take on Peru, who they beat 3-1 in Rio de Janeiro to clinch the trophy back in 2019.

While the Estadio de Maracana hosted the showdown on that occasion, Rio's less illustrious venue – Estadio Nilton Santos – is the location of this meeting, with Brazil boasting a record of seven wins, two draws and just one defeat from their last 10 matches against Peru.

Brazil are on a seven-match unbeaten run in the Copa America, with all of those games having been played on home soil across the last two editions of the competition.

Indeed, their last defeat in the tournament came against Peru back in 2016, though Brazil should be confident of maintaining their winning start.

Peru have only won one of their last nine games in total, though that did come in their prior match against Ecuador – the last team they had previously beaten were Brazil in a friendly in September 2019.

In his pre-match news conference, Brazil coach Tite confirmed there will be at least one change, with Manchester City goalkeeper Ederson coming in for Alisson.

"There are three goalkeepers of very high levels. Two are among the best in the world," said Tite. 

"Weverton has been doing a very high level of work in the Libertadores. We are working, doing the analysis together and in this game we decided for Ederson."

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Brazil – Neymar

If Brazil are going to defend their crown, they want their poster boy to be on top form. Neymar started well, scoring a penalty and setting up Gabigol's effort in the 3-0 win over Venezuela. He has also completed the most dribbles (six) of any player so far in the competition.

Peru – Gianluca Lapadula

Lapadula seems likely to lead Peru's line in Rio and comes into the game on the back of an impressive performance against Ecuador, in which he created both of the goals for Ricardo Gareca's team.

KEY OPTA FACTS

- Peru are the last team that beat Brazil as a visitor in the Copa America – the Incas beat them 3-1 in the 1975 semi-final.
- Since then, Brazil have gone 21 games without a loss at home (13 wins, eight draws).
- Casemiro was the player who recovered the most balls on the first day of the Copa America (15, three more than Juan Cuadrado, his nearest challenger).
- Gareca will lead Peru for a fourth time in the Copa America – he is the coach with the most matches in charge of the national team in the competition (16).
- Brazil had 61.7 per cent possession against Venezuela, registering a pass accuracy of 89.1 per cent (from 550 passes in total). They had 18 attempts compared to three, with seven hitting the target.

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    This weekend brings the match everyone has been waiting for the Women's Super League.

    Stamford Bridge will be the stage as Chelsea host Manchester City on Saturday in a heavyweight tussle that promises to give fans an early indication of where the title may be heading this season. 

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    Chelsea have been in hot form in front of goal this term, scoring 23 goals across their first six games, having played one less than Manchester City due to their clash with Manchester United – who are also unbeaten – being rescheduled for next week. 

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    Chelsea also have a strong record in this fixture. They have won four of their last five home games against City in the WSL, though they did lose their most recent such game 1-0 back in February, so Gareth Taylor's visitors will think they have a chance.  

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    Overall, only Arsenal (10) have recorded more wins over them in the competition than City's seven, and another would represent a real statement of their title intent.

    Goals win Games… and Titles

    With the last title race coming down to goal difference in the final game of the season, City are clearly haunted by their inability to get across the line. Taylor and his players are determined not to see a repeat of that heartbreaking near miss in 2024-25.

    The City head coach told Opta Analyst exclusively in pre-season: "You would be surprised how strong it makes you and how mentally determined you become.

    "Of course, we will use that frustration, disappointment, to really use it as energy for this season."

    Banishing that nightmare is high on their agenda. They have scored 16 goals in just seven matches this season (2.2 per game), but this still represents a marginal underperformance of their underlying figures, given they have generated 16.59 xG (2.37 xG per game).

    However, if we compare City's attacking output to that from last season, it is clear they have endured a drop-off. In the WSL in 2023-24, City averaged 2.77 goals and 2.19 xG per game. Though they were eclipsed by Hayes' free-scoring Chelsea, they took more of their chances than anticipated based on the quality of opportunities they created.

    City successfully got 183 of their 423 shots on target last term (43.2%), whereas this season they have hit the target with 47 of their 125 attempts (37.6%). Their shot conversion rate has also dropped from 14.4% to 12.8% and their big-chance conversion rate has fallen from 41.67% (30/72) to 37.04% (10/27). 

     

    So there is still work to do for City if they are to match Chelsea's pace, with the Blues already boasting a goal difference eight better than that of their rivals.

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    Shaw's Golden Touch 

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    She has seven goals in as many games this season, overperforming her league-high xG figure of 4.83 xG, and also leads the competition for shots (28) and shots on target (12).

    Shaw has been presented with nine big chances and has converted five of them, which is the highest conversion rate (55.56%) of the 13 players to have had more than three such opportunities in the league this term.

    Of players to have had at least 10 shots in the WSL, she also has the joint-best shot conversion rate (25%) – level with Nikita Parris (three goals from 12 shots) and Johanna Rytting Kaneryd (three goals from 12 shots).

    Since the beginning of last season, meanwhile, Shaw has scored 28 goals, at least 13 more than any other player in the competition (Elisabeth Terland is next on 15). 

     

    City were hoping their reliance on Shaw would be lessened when they swooped for the WSL's all-time leading scorer in Vivianne Miedema, but a recurring knee issue has left the former Arsenal star on the sidelines once more. Prior to her latest injury setback, Miedema had scored two goals in five games in all competitions for City.

    Shaw will have support from elsewhere, though. Lauren Hemp recently became the youngest player in WSL history to reach 50 goals and also leads the way for assists (five) and chances created (26) in the competition this season.

    However, despite her outstanding creative metrics, Hemp has underperformed her 3.26 xG, scoring twice from opportunities that should have resulted in at least one more goal.

    Hemp has struggled to convert her big chances this term, only putting away two of the eight that have fallen their way, though both Jessica Park (two goals from 1.79 xG) and Jill Roord (three goals from 2.34 xG) should offer more support to Shaw.

    New Boss, New Look

    It is fair to say Bompastor has taken to the Chelsea job like a duck to water, becoming just the second WSL manager to win her first six games at a new club, after Jonas Eidevall with Arsenal. No boss has ever started with seven consecutive WSL wins.

    The French coach has made a couple of key tweaks to Hayes' setup. Guro Reiten has been one major beneficiary, operating predominantly from a left-wing role (where she has played 68% of her minutes) but also being fielded centrally on occasion. 

     

    Reiten is Chelsea's leading scorer with four goals in six games, overperforming her 3.0 xG, while she also leads the Blues for shots (18) and chances created (12), providing two assists.
     
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    Timing is Everything

    One theme of Chelsea's season has been their ability to come out of the blocks fast and bury opponents early on, such as when they netted twice in the first 16 minutes of their 2-1 win at Arsenal. The Blues have scored 11 first-half goals in the WSL this season, more than any other team. Their 7.28 first-half xG is also the highest in the league, beating City's 6.78.

    Given their overall tally of 23 goals, it is no surprise that Chelsea have also scored the most second-half goals (12), with City second with 10. City have, however, been notably stronger in the second periods of games – often requiring late goals to earn results – and have the highest second-half xG (9.8), with Chelsea's second-half xG down at 6.5.

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    The significance of this game, though, means those figures could drastically change after Saturday. Bompastor's team are given a 53.7% chance of emerging victorious, while City's hope of victory are rated at 22.5%.

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