Euro 2020: Denmark likelier winners than England? Stats Perform AI predicts the finals
Predicting the winner of a major international tournament is a natural part of being a football fan, even if it can sometimes be something of a fool's errand – as proven by Greece and Denmark.
But considering how integral statistics are to football these days, using data could potentially give you the edge, and that's where Stats Perform comes in.
Our Artificial Intelligence team have used Opta's extensive data reserves to quantify each team's chances of winning the entire tournament.
Every match has been run through the Stats Perform Euros Prediction model to calculate the estimated probability of the outcome (win, draw or loss). This uses odds from betting markets and Stats Perform team rankings, which are based on historical and recent performances.
It takes into consideration the strength of each team's opponents as well as the difficulty of their respective paths to the final, plus the make-up of the groups and any relevant seedings heading into the knockouts.
Then, the rest of the tournament is simulated 40,000 times and analysed, providing the AI team with a percentage for each nation, showing the probability of them ultimately lifting the trophy at Wembley on July 11.
Without any further ado, let's check out the results, some of which may come as something of a surprise…
MOST-LIKELY WINNERS: France (20.5 per cent)
Well, this one probably isn't much of a shock. Anyone who has looked through the squad at Didier Deschamps' disposal has likely come to the conclusion that Les Bleus will have to implode a la the 2010 World Cup if they're to be beaten.
Most of the key players from their 2018 World Cup-winning squad are present, and now they can call upon the services of Karim Benzema again, which is no small thing.
Our model also gives France a 46.8 per cent chance of finish top of the so-called 'Group of Death', which also includes defending champions Portugal and a Germany side desperate for redemption after World Cup humiliation in Russia.
If France are successful, Deschamps will become the first man in history to win the World Cup and Euros as both a player and manager.
2. Belgium (15.7 per cent)
Could this be the last-chance saloon for Belgium's 'Golden Generation'? Our predictor model certainly suggests they're still in with a great chance of winning the title, with their 15.7 per cent the second highest.
They have the joint-oldest squad at the tournament (29.2 years) along with Sweden, so while they're certainly not a young team, several of their best players are right at the peak of their powers, with Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku coming into the tournament arguably in the form of their lives.
They looked sharp in qualifying – for what it's worth – with a 100 per cent win record and a 40-goal haul that wasn't matched by any other team, while they will be strong favourites to win their group ahead of Russia, Denmark and Finland.
3. Spain (11.3 per cent)
Now, one thing our model cannot take into consideration is a coronavirus outbreak. La Roja had to field their Under-21s for the senior side's final pre-Euros warm-up game against Lithuania – while it means nothing for their chances at the tournament, they did ease to a 4-0 win.
It remains to be seen if there are any further consequences of Sergio Busquets and Diego Llorente testing positive for COVID-19, but if we assume Luis Enrique is able to rely on a squad that's more or less the selection he initially picked, they will at least be strong options to reach the latter stages.
Although perhaps not blessed with the kind of 'superstar' talent they've had at other tournaments over the past 15 years or so, they do have a highly regarded coach and beat Germany 6-0 as recently as November. Nevertheless, their disrupted build-up to the tournament could be telling when their campaign starts.
4. Germany (9.8 per cent)
Joachim Low's going to have to upset the odds if he is to enjoy one last hurrah with Die Mannschaft. The World Cup-winner coach is stepping down a year early after the Euros, with Hansi Flick set to take over.
Having the likes of Thomas Muller back in the squad after a stunning couple of seasons with Bayern Munich will surely improve their chances – though our model doesn't take player data into account.
The predictor will see that Germany have failed to beat Denmark and North Macedonia in two of their three most recent games, while they also have a particularly hard group.
5. Portugal (9.6 per cent)
The other major footballing power from the 'Group of Death' – our predictor suggests Portugal are the least likely of themselves, France and Germany to win Euro 2020.
Nevertheless, La Selecao will surely feel good about themselves heading into the competition. Their squad is arguably significantly better than the one that won Euro 2016, while coach Fernando Santos is a shrewd operator.
They also have this chap up front called Cristiano Ronaldo, who is one away from setting a new record for the most goals (10) in European Championship history.
THE REST OF THE FIELD
According to our predictor, a resurgent Italy and Netherlands are the next most likely to win the tournament, which would represent a rather good turnaround from missing out on the 2018 World Cup – in fact, the Oranje weren't at Euro 2016 either.
At this point there are probably many of you pondering – assuming you've not just scrolled straight down to the list – about England's chances.
Well, the Three Lions' ranking here is a prime example of how a good draw can really pay. While they should – in theory, at least – have more than enough firepower to get out of a group that also contains Croatia, neighbours Scotland and Czech Republic, their route to the final would almost certainly see them come up against one – or more – of Germany, France, Portugal, Spain, Belgium, Italy and the Netherlands. They're also probably not helped by the fact they've played more Euros games (31) without reaching the final than any other team.
England's 5.2 per cent chance of success sees them behind Denmark (5.4 per cent), whose path to the final would likely be a little kinder, though the caveat is that the Three Lions could potentially play the vast majority of their matches on home soil at Wembley.
Tournament debutants North Macedonia are, perhaps unsurprisingly, the least likely to win Euro 2020, with their chances rated at 0.02 per cent.
6. Italy (7.6 per cent)
7. Netherlands (5.9 per cent)
8. Denmark (5.4 per cent)
9. England (5.2 per cent)
10. Switzerland (2.3 per cent)
11. Sweden (1.5 per cent)
12. Croatia (1.0 per cent)
13. Russia (1.0 per cent)
14. Poland (0.8 per cent)
15. Ukraine (0.8 per cent)
16. Wales (0.6 per cent)
17. Turkey (0.4 per cent)
18. Czech Republic (0.2 per cent)
19. Austria (0.2 per cent)
20. Finland (0.1 per cent)
21. Hungary (0.1 per cent)
22. Scotland (0.1 per cent)
23. Slovakia (0.04 per cent)
24. North Macedonia (0.02 per cent)
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Kingston College book Manning Cup final berth with 2-0 win over Hydel High
Kingston College (KC) continued their quest for schoolboy football supremacy with a composed 2-0 victory over Hydel High in the ISSA/Digicel Manning Cup semifinal at the National Stadium on Tuesday.
A brace from Guyanese forward Matrim Martin (16th and 90+1) secured the North Street-based school's place in Friday’s final, where they will aim to cop a 17th Manning Cup lien, having last triumphed in 2021.
They will meet first-time finalists St Catherine High in the 6:15pm showpiece.
Though not entirely pleased with performance, Kingston College’s Head coach, Vassell Reynolds, welcomed the victory, as they are now within touching distance of adding another Manning Cup title to their storied history.
“I am a little bit disappointed, especially with the first half, because the last three games we performed very well, and we were banking on the fact that we would have carried it over to the semi-final. But maybe they were a little bit nervous because this team knocked us out at the same stage last year, but we wanted to win and we got that, so I am very proud of the boys,” Reynolds said.
Both teams began the match with energy and intent, but it was Kingston College that carved out the first meaningful chance. Martin’s firm header in the early minutes forced Hydel goalkeeper Idrian Robinson into action, signaling Kingston College’s attacking intentions.
Their persistence paid off in the 16th minute when Hydel’s defence failed to clear their lines under pressure, and Martin capitalized with a precise strike from the top of the 18-yard box, sending the Kingston College supporters into raptures.
Hydel had a golden opportunity to respond just four minutes later when a defensive mix-up in Kingston College’s backline gifted Sean-John Curchar a chance from point-blank range. However, the centre forward fired high, letting Kingston College off the hook.
Though both teams continued to show attacking ambition, they struggled to convert half-chances into goals as Kingston College remained 1-0 up at the break.
It was more of the same after the interval, with both teams displaying flashes of attacking promise but lacking the finishing touch.
Kingston College came close to doubling their lead in the 69th minute when Kamaul Patterson broke free behind defenders, only for Robinson to leave his line well and deny the effort.
Hydel, desperate to find an equaliser, had their best chance in the 87th minute. A long cross found an unmarked D’Sean Henry at the far post, but his tame header was comfortably gathered by Kingston College’s goalkeeper, Malique Williams.
The game’s decisive moment came in the dying embers of stoppage time when Martin outsprinted two Hydel defenders and fired a powerful low shot past Robinson at the near post to seal the Purples victory.
It was another heartbreak for Hydel’s Head coach, Devon Anderson, who consistently failed to get over the semi-final hurdle.
“I am very much disappointed. It seems like this is a very familiar place for me to come knock at the door, and the door is still closed. But that’s just the game; if you don’t execute, you don’t win,” Anderson noted.
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Howe lauds Slot's impact at Liverpool but insists title race not over
Eddie Howe lauded the impact of Arne Slot with Premier League leaders Liverpool, though insists the title race is far from over ahead of Newcastle United's meeting on Wednesday.
Liverpool are nine points clear at the summit heading into the midweek action, having dispatched Manchester City with a 2-0 win at Anfield on Sunday.
That opened up an 11-point gap between the Reds and Pep Guardiola's defending champions, yet Howe believes the title battle is far from over in December.
"No, I think nothing is ever secure or done until it's done," said Howe. "The Premier League is known for twists and turns, so who knows what's going to happen.
"I think they're a team at the moment playing with full confidence, they've still got the hallmark of Liverpool under Jurgen Klopp.
"But Arne has now had his time with the team and tweaked certain things, that makes them a very difficult proposition because they've added new strengths."
Newcastle were defeated 2-0 at home by West Ham before a 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace last Saturday.
Slot believes travelling to Newcastle will pose a tougher test than facing Real Madrid, however, having defeated Los Blancos last week in the Champions League.
"We know we have a difficult week coming up again," Slot said.
"We thought Madrid and City were very difficult teams to face, which they actually were as well. I think it’s even harder going away to Newcastle.
"We're not even halfway through the season yet."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Newcastle United – Alexander Isak
Fitness permitting if Alexander Isak can shake off a knock suffered at Palace, the Sweden striker will be key to any home hopes here.
The Newcastle forward has 21 goals in 30 home Premier League appearances, although he has only scored twice from 18 attempts at St James' Park this season.
Liverpool – Mohamed Salah
Mohamed Salah stole the show once more against City, scoring from the penalty spot and assisting Cody Gakpo's opener.
The Liverpool star has also been involved in 14 Premier League goals against Newcastle (eight goals, six assists), with these coming in his last 13 appearances against them.
MATCH PREDICTION – LIVERPOOL WIN
Liverpool are firm favourites for this one considering they have won each of their last six meetings with Newcastle in the Premier League.
The Magpies are winless in the last 15 top-flight meetings overall (D4 L11), while Liverpool have won five of their last six league visits to St. James' Park.
Indeed, the Reds' three-match winning streak on the road against Newcastle is their longest such streak against Wednesday's hosts in the competition.
Expect drama, too, given Liverpool have won 11 Premier League games in which they have trailed against Newcastle, the most comeback wins one side has against another in the competition's history.
To make matters worse for the hosts, they have won just one of their last 26 Premier League meetings against sides starting the day top of the table (D7 L18), a feat which could continue here.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Newcastle United win – 26.2%
Draw – 23.6%
Liverpool win – 50.2% -
Saints go marching in: St Catherine High to contest first-ever Manning Cup final after penalty shootout win over Jamaica College
St Catherine High School will contest their first-ever ISSA/Digicel Manning Cup final, as they prevailed 5-3 in a dramatic penalty shootout against many-time champions Jamaica College (JC) at the National Stadium on Tuesday.
In a semi-final game defined by determination and resilience, the teams played out a tense 1-1 draw in regulation time before the St Johns Road-based school held their nerve from 12 yards to edge past their storied opponents.
Romaine Walters (11th) for St Catherine and Nashordo Gibbs (40th) for Jamaica College got the goals in open play.
The victory was met with jubilation from the St Catherine camp as players, staff, and supporters celebrated their school’s historic feat, which left an almost emotional Head coach, Anthony Patrick, at a loss for words.
For Patrick, it was not just a victory over one of the competition’s giants but a testament to their grit, belief, and teamwork throughout the season.
“Words alone can’t explain how I feel. I must say kudos to the youngsters because they fought hard and dug deep. I must also laud our goalkeeper [Omarion Brown]. He came up big for us, and we know once it gets to penalties, it will work out in our favour. We asked them to stick behind the ball and force Jamaica College to play the long ball so our goalkeeper can come into play because we know once it got to penalties, it would be difficult for them,” Patrick said post-match.
St Catherine began brightly and took an early lead in the 11th minute when Walters calmly converted a penalty after Gentles' shot struck the hand of Jamaica College’s defender Javaun Mills inside the box. The goal marked Walters’ third of the season and gave his team the momentum, despite Jamaica College dominating the early exchanges.
However, the lead did little to deflate Jamaica College, who quickly regrouped and pushed for an equalizer. Their relentless probing eventually paid off in the 40th minute when Giovanni Taylor delivered a precise pass across the box for Nashordo Gibbs to tap home from close range.
Jamaica College almost took the lead on the stroke of halftime when Gibbs broke free and crossed for Taylor, who squandered the opportunity, as the score remained unchanged at the break.
On the resumption, Jamaica College had opportunities to win the contest but failed to find the decisive breakthrough due to a combination of faulty shooting, poor decision-making, and good glove work by Omarion Brown in goal for St Catherine.
In fact, their best chance to steal victory came in the 87th minute when Jamoy Dennis found himself in behind the defence with time and space but somehow fired his effort wide, much to the relief of St Catherine’s supporters.
St Catherine then delivered a flawless display from the spot, with Walters, Nathel Ellis, Dwight Gentles, Josh Reid, and Kadean Young all converting their kicks.
Jamaica College, the tournament’s most successful team, saw Dontae Logan, Dyllan John, and Javaun Mills find the back of the net. However, the pivotal moment came when Jahmarly Bennett’s effort cannoned off the crossbar, sealing the Old Hope Road school’s fate.