One round remaining, two teams involved, and just two points separate them.
LaLiga's title race has been at its most gripping in years this term, arguably capturing the imagination more than any since 2006-07.
Back then, there were three teams in with a chance of taking home the title on the final day of the season: Real Madrid and Barcelona, of course, plus Juande Ramos' Sevilla.
As it was, Madrid and Barca won on the last day whereas Sevilla – who needed a win and for the other two to lose – lost at home to Villarreal.
Madrid finished top by virtue of a better head-to-head record over Barca, who were essentially denied the title by their local rivals Espanyol, slumping to a 2-2 draw with them on the penultimate day to hand Los Blancos the initiative.
This time there are only two teams left in the hunt on the final day, with Sevilla and Barcelona bowing out of what was, for a while, a four-way tussle at the summit.
Now it's between Atletico and Madrid, the two city rivals hoping to leave the other wallowing in misery.
Diego Simeone's side looked certainties for the title not too long ago: at the start of February, they were 11 points clear, but their form in the second half of the season has been a little underwhelming.
Having accumulated 50 points in their first 19 league matches, that haul has plummeted to 33 in the 18 matches since, hence why as many as three other teams have threatened to overtake them.
There have been thrills and spills, particularly in the past few weeks, with Atletico securing a dramatic 2-1 win over Osasuna last weekend despite falling behind in the 75th minute. Any result other than a win would have allowed Madrid to go into the final weekend top.
Yet, remarkably, the title is still in Atletico's hands thanks to Luis Suarez's 88th-minute winner on that occasion, meaning they hold the advantage heading into the final weekend.
Atletico go to relegation-threatened Real Valladolid, while Madrid host Villarreal. Who will prevail?
How does the predictor work?
First of all, here's how we got the data...
The data model estimates the probability of each match outcome – either a win, draw or loss – based on each team's attacking and defensive quality. Those ratings are allocated based on four years' worth of comprehensive historic data points and results, with more weighting given to recent matches to account for improvements or declines in form and performance trends.
The AI simulation takes into account the quality of the opposition that a team scores or concedes goals against and rewards them accordingly. All that data is used to simulate upcoming matches using goal predictions from the Poisson distribution – a detailed mathematical model – with the two teams' attacking and defending ratings used as inputs.
The outcome of the season is then simulated on 10,000 different occasions in order to generate the most accurate possible percentage chance of each team finishing in their ultimate league position.
Let's see how the model now predicts the final league table will look...
Atletico take the crown
All signs point to Atletico sealing the title, their second league crown under the guidance of Simeone and first since 2014, when they also clinched it on the final day.
Our model gives Atletico a 73.9 per cent chance of finishing top – after all, they have won 89 per cent (8/9) of their league meetings with Pucela under Simeone, a record they can only better against Elche, Las Palmas (both 100 per cent) and Osasuna (91 per cent).
Our predictor does expect Madrid to beat Villarreal, as its most likely outcome sees Los Blancos finishing with 83 points, but Atletico know their rivals' result will be irrelevant if they go to Valladolid and win.
Nevertheless, Madrid do still have a 26.1 per cent chance of successfully defending their crown, no doubt helped by the fact they boast a better head-to-head record against Atletico.
If they are ultimately successful, it will be Madrid's 35th league title and their first successive LaLiga crowns since 2006-07 and 2007-08, while Zinedine Zidane would be the first Blancos coach since Leo Beenhakker (three – 1987, 1988 and 1989) to win consecutive titles.
The omens are good for Madrid in terms of them fulfilling their end of the bargain, as Yellow Submarine coach Unai Emery has lost eight of his nine LaLiga matches away to them.
Atletico's result will also help finalise matters near the bottom of the table as well, as Valladolid need to win to avoid the drop, though even that may not be enough to save them.
The predicted table has Valladolid and Huesca – due to their inferior head-to-head record against Elche – following Eibar into La Segunda.
Luis Enrique confident PSG are in perfect form with three titles up for grabs
Paris Saint-Germain can wrap up the Ligue 1 title this weekend, and with the Champions League and Coupe de France still to play for, they are in the best possible form, according to manager Luis Enrique.
PSG host relegation battling Le Havre on Saturday, and a win will secure the league title with three games still to play, leaving them to concentrate on a Champions League semi-final with Borussia Dortmund and the cup final against Lyon.
"I think we are heading into the final phase of the season in great form," said Luis Enrique.
"I wouldn't have imagined this scenario going as positively as this, but what happens in the future is what happens. I would say we are in fantastic form in every way. We have almost every player available. Our supporters are very happy.
"The club has so much ambition to achieve something else. It is a really attractive end to the season, which we are motivated for, and we will continue to fight to achieve all our targets."
'Did anyone expect us to be champions?' – Klopp not ready to assess final season at Anfield
Jurgen Klopp refused to assess his final season at Liverpool just yet, despite the campaign seemingly starting to fizzle out.
Wednesday’s 2-0 defeat to Everton in the Merseyside derby dealt a huge blow to Liverpool’s Premier League title hopes.
The Reds are now three points clear of leaders Arsenal, while they are two points behind second-placed Manchester City, who have a game in hand.
Klopp has just four matches left of his Liverpool tenure, though he is not ready to assess the final season of his stint just yet.
"I would not assess it now. I have no clue, so I am not in the mood to give up, wave the white flag kind of thing," he said ahead of Saturday’s trip to West Ham.
"I just think we have to look after ourselves; just make sure that we play better football. I said after the game 'why should a team who play like us against Everton be champions?' But the football we played before, a lot of good stuff. In January we looked invincible, with a depleted squad. Everybody went in the same direction, go for it, squeezed out results.
"So, we deserve to be where we are. I want us to use the situation, don't feel the pressure, for whatever reason it is. The boys are incredible footballers and I see it as my job to create that atmosphere where they can be the best versions of themselves – and that's obviously how I have failed.
"I don't know how it happened, but I didn't see anything of what I wanted us to be in the Everton game."
Klopp did, though, reminded the media that Liverpool have performed above expectations.
"Did anyone expect us to become champions at the start of the season? No, but it developed in this direction," Klopp added.
"Just to explain how different it is. We cannot go back to the point where we say 'yeah, well [qualifying for the Champions League] is good enough'. It is very good, but because we were so close, we are very, very disappointed in this moment in time. We cannot change that."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
West Ham – Jarrod Bowen
Bowen has scored in both of West Ham’s meetings with Liverpool so far this season – the only Hammers player to score in three different games against the Reds in a single campaign is Geoff Hurst in 1964-65.
Liverpool – Mohamed Salah
Salah has received criticism for his recent form, but he has scored 11 goals for Liverpool against West Ham in all competitions, only netting more against Manchester United (14) in his Reds career.
MATCH PREDICTION: LIVERPOOL WIN
West Ham have won just one of their last eight Premier League home games (D5 L2), beating Brentford 4-2 in February. They lost against Fulham last time out but haven’t lost consecutive home league games since a run of three in November/December 2022.
Liverpool have already beaten West Ham 3-1 in the Premier League and 5-1 in the League Cup so far this season. This is the 11th different campaign in which they have faced the Hammers 3+ times, but they have never managed to beat them three times in any of the previous 10.
Since keeping back-to-back clean sheets against Liverpool in the 2015-16 campaign, West Ham have conceded at least once in each of their last 15 against the Reds, conceding multiple goals in 12 of those games.
Liverpool have only won more Premier League games against Crystal Palace (13) than they have against West Ham (12) under Klopp.
West Ham have lost 12 of their last 14 Premier League games against Liverpool, with both exceptions in this run coming at home (1-1 in February 2019, 3-2 in November 2021).
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
West Ham – 21.7%
Liverpool – 52.5%
Draw – 25.8%
Tuchel insists Bayern Munich coach search not affecting team's focus
Bayern Munich's search for coach Thomas Tuchel's successor is not distracting the team from their preparations for next week's Champions League semi-final first leg against Real Madrid or their final Bundesliga matches.
That was the vow from Tuchel before Bayern first face Eintracht Frankfurt on Saturday with the league title already secured by Bayer Leverkusen.
Bayern will part ways with Tuchel at the end of a disappointing domestic season, a year earlier than his contract.
Austria coach Ralf Rangnick confirmed this week there had been contact with Bayern while several other coaches have been linked with the club.
Tuchel, however, said the team was shutting out any such distractions as they chase a spot in the Champions League final.
"In the next 11 days it can only be football and the goals we can still reach," Tuchel told a press conference.
"We want to collect points [in the Bundesliga] to get the best result and reach the Champions League final.
"For anything else, there is just no capacity at the moment, whether it is comfortable or uncomfortable despite the many issues."
With no chance of domestic silverware and Bayern battling to hold on to second place, three points ahead of third-placed Stuttgart whom they face in 10 days, Tuchel said it was clear Tuesday's game against Real Madrid was on everyone's mind already.
"I can accept and it is important that we all accept it that there is this background noise against Frankfurt," Tuchel said.
"We don't have to tell ourselves a fairytale that we are only thinking 100% about Eintracht.
"There is this background noise that the Real Madrid game plays a role. When I get my coffee in the morning people don't say 'good luck for tomorrow' they say 'good luck for Tuesday' to me."
Bayern still have some injury concerns for the coming games with Dayot Upamecano doubtful after twisting an ankle in training and Leroy Sane racing to get fit in time for Tuesday.
Tuchel said: "We have a test [against Frankfurt] and either we are distracted or we find solutions. Put on ear plugs or headphones and study for the test. That is my task."
The former Chelsea and Paris Saint-Germain boss was also asked about over 12,000 Bayern supporters signing a petition asking for him to remain at the club.
"Even though this topic is good for me when they [the fans] wish you to stay, it's not something that is a priority and it isn't allowed to be a priority," he said.
"Whether it's pleasant or unpleasant, I don't allow myself to be influenced by it. We're only focusing on every day counting towards our goals and there is no exception here.
"This question is like the neighbour that is noisy at three in the morning, if we're honest! I'll set my headphones to noise-cancelling mode and ignore that.
"This topic won't help me on Saturday and won't help me on Tuesday - and it is not my topic."
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