Four rounds remaining, four teams involved, and just six points to separate them.
The end of the LaLiga title race looks to be the most gripping to any of the top five European leagues this term, and almost certainly the least predictable finish in Spain since 2006-07.
Back then, there were three teams in with a chance of taking home the title on the final day of the season: Real Madrid and Barcelona, of course, plus Juande Ramos' Sevilla.
As it was, Madrid and Barca won on the last day whereas Sevilla – who needed a win and for the other two to lose – lost at home to Villarreal.
Madrid finished top by virtue of a better head-to-head record over Barca, who were essentially denied the title by their local rivals Espanyol, slumping to a 2-2 draw with them on the penultimate day to hand Los Blancos the initiative.
For the first time since then, Sevilla are again in with a shout of upsetting established order – albeit they trail the leaders by six points – though on this occasion Atletico Madrid are most prominently in the mix.
Diego Simeone's side looked certainties for the title not too long ago: at the start of February, they were 11 points clear, but they've won only seven of their 15 league games since, including a defeat to Sevilla in early April.
Yet, remarkably, it's still in Atletico's hands thanks to Barca's surprise loss at home to Granada last week.
What made that defeat even more incredible was the fact Granada had just 18 per cent of the ball and scored twice from an xG (expected goals) value of just 0.69. This means they netted more than two times as many as they should have, which speaks to how stunningly clinical they were.
Interestingly – or, infuriatingly, if you're a fan – it was Barcelona's second-highest share of the ball in a league game this season, behind only 82.1 per cent against Cadiz. They lost both games.
It's all shaping up for potentially decisive blows to be struck across May 8 and 9, when the top four all play each other – Barca host Atletico on Saturday, with Sevilla going to Madrid the next day.
But what does our prediction model say about the most likely outcome in the title race?
How does the predictor work?
The data model estimates the probability of each match outcome – either a win, draw or loss – based on each team's attacking and defensive quality. Those ratings are allocated based on four years' worth of comprehensive historic data points and results, with more weighting given to recent matches to account for improvements or declines in form and performance trends.
The AI simulation takes into account the quality of the opposition that a team scores or concedes goals against and rewards them accordingly. All that data is used to simulate upcoming matches using goal predictions from the Poisson distribution – a detailed mathematical model – with the two teams' attacking and defending ratings used as inputs.
The outcome of the season is then simulated on 10,000 different occasions in order to generate the most accurate possible percentage chance of each team finishing in their ultimate league position.
Let's say how the model now predicts the final league table will look...
Atletico take the crown
Atletico Madrid are now given a 40.6 per cent probability of winning the title, up from 38 per cent a week ago.
It essentially looks like it will come down to their showdown with Barca. Atletico hold a slight advantage, having beaten the Catalans 1-0 in Madrid in the reverse fixture, and our predictor seemingly doesn't expect Ronald Koeman's men to overturn that at Camp Nou, as the model sees Atletico winning the title by virtue of their head-to-head record.
Barcelona's chances have increased from 32.6 per cent to 35.1, with that surprise defeat to Granada preventing any bigger jump despite their 3-2 win at Valencia.
After drawing 0-0 twice in three games, Madrid's chances dropped from 34.4 per cent to 26.6 per cent last week, and they now sit at 24.3 per cent despite their most recent 2-0 win over Osasuna.
Sevilla, who conceded an injury-time winner to Athletic Bilbao last time out, remain distant outsiders. Our prediction model only gives them a 0.1 per cent probability of winning their first league title since 1946.
Palmer will become one of the world's best players, predicts Cucurella
Cole Palmer will be among the very best players in the world if he continues on his current trajectory, believes the forward's Chelsea team-mate Marc Cucurella.
Palmer enjoyed a magnificent debut campaign in 2023-24 after swapping Manchester City for Stamford Bridge, with his 33 Premier League goal involvements (22 goals, 11 assists) the most of any player.
After impressing for England at Euro 2024 – where he came off the bench to score in their 2-1 final defeat to Spain – Palmer has picked up where he left off this term, registering 11 goal contributions (six goals, five assists) to once again lead the charts.
He became the first player in Premier League history to score four goals before half-time in a single game versus Brighton and Hove Albion in September, when he scooped the competition's Player of the Month award.
Palmer also won England's Player of the Year award for last campaign and Cucurella, who was a key part of the Spain team that defeated the Three Lions in Berlin, believes he is destined for the very summit.
"If you see him not in his kit you would never in your life say he was a footballer, but then on the pitch... he shoots and it doesn’t seem like he is hitting it hard but he scores," Cucurella said in an interview with The Guardian.
"He's very different. I don't know how to explain it: he's special. We’re very lucky we have him.
"We [Spain] are lucky he didn’t play much in the Euros either because he came on and almost messed it up for us.
"If he carries on like this, he'll be among the best. He doesn't have much strength in the air, but if that’s his only problem, then he's all right."
Chelsea are unbeaten in six Premier League games since going down 2-0 to champions City on matchday one, with boss Enzo Maresca winning the competition's Manager of the Month prize for September.
Though it is still early days for the Italian coach, Cucurella says the Blues have lofty ambitions under him.
"Our objective has to be to win a trophy," he said. "In the Conference League we can do something good, and the cups.
"Arsenal and City have been working in the same way for many years, the same idea, the same players, and I think we’re a bit far away from that.
"Liverpool too because it's been the same players. But we can get into the Champions League, that's the key objective."
Arsenal 'envious' of Chelsea's WSL dominance, admits McCabe
Arsenal are "envious" of the era of dominance over the Women's Super League enjoyed by rivals Chelsea, admitted Katie McCabe ahead of Saturday's derby between the sides.
Chelsea have won five straight WSL crowns, edging out Manchester City on goal difference last season to give Emma Hayes a triumphant send-off before she joined the United States.
Now under the stewardship of former Lyon boss Sonia Bompastor, Chelsea are the only team in the WSL with a perfect record this term, winning their opening two matches before seeing last week's clash with Manchester United postponed.
Arsenal, on the other hand, have already played out home draws with Man City and Everton, ramping up the pressure ahead of Saturday's game at the Emirates Stadium.
Asked by reporters how it felt to see Arsenal's rivals dominate year after year, full-back McCabe said: "It always hurts.
"You want that to be you. You are in a team sport to be lifting trophies with your team-mates.
"Of course you are envious of them being successful. What we can do is focus on ourselves and put one foot in front of the other. Hopefully, by the end of the season, that will be us."
While Chelsea approach this weekend's headline fixture as favourites, they were trounced 4-1 in this exact game last December, with Alessio Russo scoring twice in one of just three league defeats the Blues suffered all campaign.
Looking back at that victory, McCabe said: "We take those moments as positives and bring it in and really instil that winning mentality into the team.
"We already did it last year, so it's not a new thing for us. It is about controlling ourselves, controlling our gameplan and what we want to do in the game and applying it."
Chelsea focusing on themselves ahead of Arsenal clash, says Bompastor
Chelsea head coach Sonia Bompastor says the Blues are focusing purely on their own form as they bid to continue their flawless start to her reign against Arsenal.
Taking over from legendary boss Emma Hayes, Bompastor has overseen back-to-back Women's Super League wins over Aston Villa (1-0) and Crystal Palace (7-0).
The Blues saw their matchday three fixture versus Manchester United postponed last week, but a victory over rivals Arsenal in Saturday's lone WSL game would take them top of the table.
Arsenal were tipped as candidates to end Chelsea's five-year reign at the summit of the English game in pre-season, only to draw two of their opening three matches, but Bompastor is not concerned with others' results.
"The players are really focused on themselves and on the team. I just want them to stay focused on the job we have to do. We prepare for every game in such a professional way," Bompastor said.
"For me, Arsenal is no different from the other teams we have been facing, so we focus on ourselves.
"We know what we need to do tomorrow to get a good result and a great performance, that's it. This game is worth three points, the same as the other ones.
"Of course it's a derby, a special game in that way, but it's just three points in the end. We have our ambitions, our goals, and this game will bring three points if we are able to win, that's it. I'm just focused on my team and what we need to do."
Arsenal are unbeaten in their last four home meetings with Chelsea in the WSL (two wins, two draws), but they have not won back-to-back home games against them since June 2013 (a run of three in a row).
They meet a Blues side in fine goalscoring form, winning their last five WSL games by an aggregate scoreline of 23-0 in a run dating back to Hayes' reign, though they have not won six straight league matches without conceding since April 2021.
Bompastor added: "We feel great. We had the last training session this afternoon and the weather was perfect, we really enjoyed it! The team is in a really good dynamic so we feel good.
"We played on Tuesday and we had a good result. We were able to manage the week the way we wanted to and I think we are ready for tomorrow, a big game and a derby."
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