Four rounds remaining, four teams involved, and just six points to separate them.
The end of the LaLiga title race looks to be the most gripping to any of the top five European leagues this term, and almost certainly the least predictable finish in Spain since 2006-07.
Back then, there were three teams in with a chance of taking home the title on the final day of the season: Real Madrid and Barcelona, of course, plus Juande Ramos' Sevilla.
As it was, Madrid and Barca won on the last day whereas Sevilla – who needed a win and for the other two to lose – lost at home to Villarreal.
Madrid finished top by virtue of a better head-to-head record over Barca, who were essentially denied the title by their local rivals Espanyol, slumping to a 2-2 draw with them on the penultimate day to hand Los Blancos the initiative.
For the first time since then, Sevilla are again in with a shout of upsetting established order – albeit they trail the leaders by six points – though on this occasion Atletico Madrid are most prominently in the mix.
Diego Simeone's side looked certainties for the title not too long ago: at the start of February, they were 11 points clear, but they've won only seven of their 15 league games since, including a defeat to Sevilla in early April.
Yet, remarkably, it's still in Atletico's hands thanks to Barca's surprise loss at home to Granada last week.
What made that defeat even more incredible was the fact Granada had just 18 per cent of the ball and scored twice from an xG (expected goals) value of just 0.69. This means they netted more than two times as many as they should have, which speaks to how stunningly clinical they were.
Interestingly – or, infuriatingly, if you're a fan – it was Barcelona's second-highest share of the ball in a league game this season, behind only 82.1 per cent against Cadiz. They lost both games.
It's all shaping up for potentially decisive blows to be struck across May 8 and 9, when the top four all play each other – Barca host Atletico on Saturday, with Sevilla going to Madrid the next day.
But what does our prediction model say about the most likely outcome in the title race?
How does the predictor work?
The data model estimates the probability of each match outcome – either a win, draw or loss – based on each team's attacking and defensive quality. Those ratings are allocated based on four years' worth of comprehensive historic data points and results, with more weighting given to recent matches to account for improvements or declines in form and performance trends.
The AI simulation takes into account the quality of the opposition that a team scores or concedes goals against and rewards them accordingly. All that data is used to simulate upcoming matches using goal predictions from the Poisson distribution – a detailed mathematical model – with the two teams' attacking and defending ratings used as inputs.
The outcome of the season is then simulated on 10,000 different occasions in order to generate the most accurate possible percentage chance of each team finishing in their ultimate league position.
Let's say how the model now predicts the final league table will look...
Atletico take the crown
Atletico Madrid are now given a 40.6 per cent probability of winning the title, up from 38 per cent a week ago.
It essentially looks like it will come down to their showdown with Barca. Atletico hold a slight advantage, having beaten the Catalans 1-0 in Madrid in the reverse fixture, and our predictor seemingly doesn't expect Ronald Koeman's men to overturn that at Camp Nou, as the model sees Atletico winning the title by virtue of their head-to-head record.
Barcelona's chances have increased from 32.6 per cent to 35.1, with that surprise defeat to Granada preventing any bigger jump despite their 3-2 win at Valencia.
After drawing 0-0 twice in three games, Madrid's chances dropped from 34.4 per cent to 26.6 per cent last week, and they now sit at 24.3 per cent despite their most recent 2-0 win over Osasuna.
Sevilla, who conceded an injury-time winner to Athletic Bilbao last time out, remain distant outsiders. Our prediction model only gives them a 0.1 per cent probability of winning their first league title since 1946.
Benzema: Mbappe must adapt to Madrid role and forget 'best in world' Vinicius
Kylian Mbappe must learn to play as a central striker at Real Madrid because he cannot displace Vinicius Junior on the left wing.
Those were the words of Los Blancos' second-highest scorer of all time, Karim Benzema.
Mbappe has scored eight goals in 14 appearances in all competitions for Madrid since his move from Paris Saint-Germain, but has failed to score in his last five games.
The 26-year-old has been deployed in a more central role since under Carlo Ancelotti, as opposed to the wide role where he enjoyed success with the Parisiens.
"The problem, in my opinion, is that [Mbappe] is not a central striker, even with the national team, every time he plays as a number nine he doesn't feel right, because that's not his position," Benzema said on Spanish television show El Chiringuito.
"On the left, he's got a guy who's at the same level as him, Vinicius, so there is a problem.
"You can't play Vinicius as a number nine or on the right, because when he plays on the left he makes the difference in every game.
"Mbappe isn't a real number nine. People ask a lot of him and he's under a lot of pressure, this isn't Paris Saint-Germain."
The France captain has underperformed his expected goals (xG) figure in LaLiga by 1.75 this term, recording a shot conversion rate of just 18.18% from his 33 total attempts.
He has also missed seven big chances, with only Real Betis duo Abde Ezzalzouli and Vitor Roque (both eight) and Barcelona's Robert Lewandowski (11) wasting more in LaLiga.
In Madrid's last game, a 4-0 Clasico defeat, Mbappe recorded just 27 touches. Only Aurelien Tchouameni (24) registered fewer among those who started the encounter.
Benzema also endured a difficult start to life in the Spanish capital, netting just nine goals in his 33 appearances in all competitions in his debut season after his move from Lyon.
He would, however, go on to become one of Madrid's best ever players, scoring 354 times in 648 outings, a total that puts him behind only Cristiano Ronaldo (450) in the club's history.
Benzema won 25 major honours during his time at the club, also scooping the Ballon d'Or in 2022, and had some advice for his compatriot moving forward.
"Don't give up, because I don't think he's going to push Vinicius to move. He's the best player in the world at the moment," Benzema added.
"Mbappe needs to get it into his head that today he's a number nine, and forget about the left flank for a while."
Mbappe will be back in action for Madrid on Tuesday when they face Milan in the Champions League.
Salah's contract 'up to him and the club', says Slot
Arne Slot has asserted Mohamed Salah’s future is “up to him and the club”.
The Liverpool star has yet to make a decision on whether to renew his contract, and as it stands, will be leaving Anfield at the end of the season.
Salah remains a key player for the Reds, and leads the club for Premier League goals (seven) and assists (five) this term.
He scored the winner in the 72nd minute to complete Liverpool’s comeback against Brighton in the Premier League on Saturday, as they moved to the top of the table.
And despite the question marks over Salah's future, Slot is not concerned.
"[His future] is not what I think about. The only thing I think about is he is so important for us. Scores important goals, works hard for the team," the Liverpool boss told TNT Sports.
"I’m hoping he can enjoy that feeling many, many, many more times. Especially if I’m here but also if I’m not here. I’m hoping he can do this many more times.
"He’s been incredible for Liverpool over the past eight years. He’s been incredible for us this season and I hope he can continue doing this for the rest of the season and maybe longer to come, but that’s up to him and the club to find the idea about the future."
Salah could be in for a historic night on Tuesday when Liverpool face Bayer Leverkusen, having scored in each of his last five Champions League appearances at Anfield.
The last player to score in six consecutive home games in the competition for an English club was Ruud van Nistelrooy for Manchester United in April 2003.
Salah sparked renewed talk over his future after posting on Instagram on Sunday, saying that the feeling of scoring at Anfield would remain unforgettable “no matter what happens.”
But Slot was keen to quash any deeper meaning in the post.
"I haven’t spoken to him about that. You interpreted it in a way that maybe other people don’t," he told the press.
"I don’t look at Instagram posts of my players, I only talk to them which you can’t, which is the advantage I have.
"Mo is in a very good place at the moment. As long as he has been at Liverpool, he has been in a very good place, but this season again as well. I am hoping he will make a post after tomorrow and on Saturday again. What he said with that, that is not important.
"For me what is important is how he plays and what he tells me when we have conversations. That is what matters and not how you guys interpret one of his posts."
All or nothing: TTFA president Edwards gives Yorke World Cup qualifying mandate in two-year agreement
Trinidad and Tobago Football Association (TTFA) president Kieron Edwards has given recently appointed Head coach Dwight Yorke a mandate of qualifying the senior Soca Warriors to the Fifa Men’s World Cup or risk being replaced.
Edwards made the declaration during an interview on I95.5 FM on Saturday, as he pointed out that their World Cup qualifying ambition was the driving force behind the move to replace Angus Eve.
“It’s not just about selecting a coach. It is about the process, the journey and qualifying to the World Cup,” Edwards said.
Still, Edwards, who was elected TTFA president in April, explained that getting to the World Cup was a medium-term goal for his administration and, as such, they opted for a change in approach to accomplish that objective.
“We had to get the process right. We had to get where we wanted to go and make sure we had the mechanics within the TTFA right to make sure we get there and I think we reached the best choice for the men’s national senior team,” he shared.
“The entire team met and we laid out our short-term goals, medium-term goals and long-term goals. The medium-term goal was to qualify for the World Cup in the next two years. When we evaluated everything, we thought we needed a change...and the executive decided we wanted to go in a different direction.” Edwards added.
That said, Edwards reaffirmed his unwavering support for the current crop of Soca Warriors players to get the Twin Island Republic to another World Cup for the first time since 2006.
In fact, he revealed that Yorke’s two-year contract is with an agreement that he successfully qualifies the team to the 2026 global showpiece.
The Soca Warriors currently sit second in Group B on four points, two points behind leaders Costa Rica ahead of the resumption of qualifying action in 2025.
“With the right support and with the guys we have, I do believe we can qualify for a World Cup. We need a coach that understands the culture we have, with players coming back in two, three days before a game. Dwight was the ideal choice for us and he understands the culture of teams in Concacaf as well,” Edwards noted.
“In terms of that professional to approach the game, I think Dwight really brings that to T&T football. I think this project for our executive and for Dwight is about qualifying for the World Cup. It’s qualifying for the World Cup or nothing. I am sure I know Dwight’s pride. He will not stay on with the TTFA or with any club if he has failed to live up to his high standards,” the TTFA president opined.
Beyond the on-field obligations Edwards said it will take an estimated US$4 million to ensure Yorke and his team has the best possible chance throughout their campaign.
“The government through the Ministry of Sport has been involved in every campaign. We truly believe qualifying for the World Cup, taking it to the back end of 2025 will take about US$4 million. When we relate the proposal, we are hoping to get 30-33 per cent from the government,” Edwards said.
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