If LaLiga's title race wasn't tantalising enough already, Barcelona's shock defeat to Granada on Thursday really threw a spanner in the works.
It looks set to be the most gripping end to any of the top five European leagues this term, and almost certainly the least predictable finish to LaLiga since 2006-07.
Back then there were three teams in with a chance of taking home the title on the final day of the season – Real Madrid and Barcelona, of course, plus Juande Ramos' Sevilla.
As it was, Madrid and Barca won on the last day whereas Sevilla – who needed a win and for the other two to lose – lost at home to Villarreal.
Madrid finished top by virtue of a better head-to-head record over Barca, who were essentially denied the title by their local rivals Espanyol, slumping to a 2-2 draw with them on the penultimate day to hand Los Blancos the initiative.
For the first time since then, Sevilla are again in with a shout of upsetting established order, though on this occasion Atletico Madrid are in the mix as well.
In fact, with just three points separating first from fourth with five games left, it's the closest title race LaLiga has ever seen in a 20-team campaign (1987-1995, 1997-present).
Diego Simeone's side looked certainties for the title not too long ago: at the start of February, they were 11 points clear, but they've won only six of their 14 league games since, including a defeat to Sevilla in early April.
Yet, remarkably, it's still in Atletico's hands thanks to Barca's surprise loss at home to Granada on Thursday.
What made that defeat even more incredible was the fact Granada had just 18 per cent of the ball and scored twice from an xG (expected goals) value of just 0.69. This means they netted more than two times as many as they should have, which speaks to how stunningly clinical they were.
Interestingly – or, infuriatingly, if you're a fan – it was Barcelona's second-highest share of the ball in a league game this season, behind only 82.1 per cent against Cadiz. They lost both games.
It's all shaping up for potentially decisive blows to be struck across May 8 and 9, when the top four all play each other – Barca host Atletico on the Saturday, with Sevilla going to Madrid the next day.
But what does our prediction model say about the most likely outcome in the title race?
How does the predictor work?
The data model estimates the probability of each match outcome – either a win, draw or loss – based on each team's attacking and defensive quality. Those ratings are allocated based on four years' worth of comprehensive historic data points and results, with more weighting given to recent matches to account for improvements or declines in form and performance trends.
The AI simulation takes into account the quality of the opposition that a team scores or concedes goals against and rewards them accordingly. All that data is used to simulate upcoming matches using goal predictions from the Poisson distribution – a detailed mathematical model – with the two teams' attacking and defending ratings used as inputs.
The outcome of the season is then simulated on 10,000 different occasions in order to generate the most accurate possible percentage chance of each team finishing in their ultimate league position.
Without further ado, let's have a good look at the results of the simulation with the predicted final league table…
Atletico take the crown
There we have it… The AI predictor still sees Atletico as the likely champions, with a 38 per cent probability.
It essentially looks like it will come down to their showdown with Barca next Saturday. Atletico hold a slight advantage having beaten Barcelona 1-0 in Madrid earlier this season, and our predictor seemingly doesn't expect Ronald Koeman's men to overturn that at Camp Nou, as the model sees Atletico winning the title by virtue of their head-to-head record.
Nevertheless, Barcelona's outlook is almost identical to just a few weeks ago when the data suggested they had a 32.8 per cent chance, that now dropping ever so slightly to 32.6 – but you can't help but wonder what it would have been had they beaten Granada.
Madrid have drawn two of their previous three games 0-0, and so their chances have dropped from 34.4 per cent to a 26.6 per cent likelihood of winning the title.
Sevilla, perhaps unsurprisingly, remain the outsiders and our prediction model still only gives them a 2.8 per cent probability of winning their first league title since 1946.
However, that's 28 times more likely than just 18 days ago when the data gave them a 0.1 per cent chance of finishing top.
Everything seemingly hinges on next weekend…
De Kock-inspired South Africa mount record T20I run chase after record-breaking Charles century
Quinton de Kock's sensational century propelled South Africa to a remarkable six-wicket victory over West Indies in a thrilling T20I after a record-breaking knock from Johnson Charles at Centurion.
Charles' astonishing 118 from 46 balls and an excellent 51 from Kyle Mayers got the Windies to what looked to be a series-winning total of 258-5 on Sunday.
Yet De Kock (100 off 44) had other ideas, with South Africa's former captain leading the Proteas to a sensational triumph and the highest successful run chase in T20Is.
By the end of the third over the hosts had scored 62 without loss, and they added an additional 20 runs from the next 18 deliveries. South Africa's total of 102-0 from the first six overs is the highest powerplay score in a T20I involving Test-playing nations, and the fastest first hundred runs scored in a T20I involving a full ICC member.
In the process, De Kock struck South Africa's quickest 50, from just 15 balls – the fifth-fastest half-century in the shortest format.
De Kock should have been caught in the deep shortly after, but did not let up as he cruised to his maiden T20I century, taking just 42 deliveries to get there, before falling to Raymon Reifer soon after.
Reeza Hendricks (68 from 28 balls) picked up the slack, though he followed Rilee Rossouw (16) in heading back to the pavilion when the Windies claimed wickets in swift succession in the 12th and 13th overs.
Romario Shepherd caught David Miller to hand West Indies a further flash of hope, yet three big hits from new captain Aiden Markram (38) put the Proteas back in control as they cantered to victory and levelled the series.
Charles' record ton overshadowed
If it was not for De Kock's sparkling knock, Charles would have been the story.
His century, which came from 39 deliveries and included 11 sixes and 10 fours, was the fastest T20I hundred by a West Indies player, surpassing a record set by Chris Gayle in 2016 (47 balls). Unfortunately for the tourists, it was not enough.
Bad day for the bowlers
It was certainly a day for the batters at SuperSport Park. South Africa's bowlers set the tone for what was to come as they struggled to keep the Windies under wraps, despite Wayne Parnell (2-42) dismissing Brandon King in the first over.
The Windies attack then suffered as De Kock, Hendricks and then Markram put them to the sword in a stunning display.
President of Brazilian FA confirms Ancelotti interest
The president of the Brazilian Football Confederation (CBF) has confirmed an interest in appointing Carlo Ancelotti as the next head coach of the national side.
Brazil are yet to name a permanent successor to Tite, who left following a quarter-final exit at the World Cup in Qatar, with the role likely to be filled at the end of the season.
Ancelotti remains contracted with Real Madrid until the completion of the 2023-24 season, but the Italian has been heavily touted to take the reins of the South American giants, with players among those talking up the possibility.
Ednaldo Rodrigues admitted he was the favourite among supporters and players, while acknowledging he was the confederation's main target.
"Ancelotti is unanimously respected among players. Not only Ronaldo Nazario or Vinicius Jr but all those that have played for him," he told Reuters.
"I really admire him for his honesty in the way he works and how constant his work is. He needs no introductions. He is really a top coach who he has several achievements, and we hope he can have even more.
"Ancelotti is not only the players' favourite, but it seems the fans' too. Everywhere I go in Brazil, in every stadium, he is the first name the supporters ask me about.
"They talk about him in a very affectionate way, in recognition of the exemplary work he has done in his career.
"Let's have faith in God, wait for the appropriate time and we'll see if we can make it happen as we look for the new coach of the Brazilian national team."
However, despite the abundance of praise and appeal of hiring Ancelotti, Rodrigues made it clear no formal approach has taken place and called for patience in the hunt for a new boss.
"We will be very ethical in our approach and respect the contracts that are in place. We also greatly respect the work that is done by any coach and his club to get there and make any kind of approach, it would be a lack of respect for the president of the clubs in question," he added.
"Therefore, we have the patience to wait for the right moment so that we can hold these conversations.
"Nothing is really defined yet to say the name [of the next coach] for sure, but it's within this line, you understand? We need a coach who has the players' respect and admiration."
Bayern 'really couldn't help' Nagelsmann leak, will 'let Tuchel be Tuchel'
Bayern Munich are adamant they were not at fault as Thomas Tuchel's appointment was reported before previous head coach Julian Nagelsmann had been sacked.
Nagelsmann was said to have learned of his departure through the media while skiing in Austria this week.
The news first broke on Thursday but was not made official for another 24 hours, by which point Tuchel had formally agreed to take the Bayern job.
However, Bayern sporting director Hasan Salihamidzic appeared on SPORT1's STAHLWERK Doppelpass on Sunday and defended the club's position.
"We met [with Tuchel] on Tuesday, had a very good conversation," Salihamidzic said. "And on Wednesday and Thursday, we negotiated with Thomas' managers.
"On Thursday evening, we learned that the information had been leaked by a third party. We really couldn't help it.
"I don't know who that was [behind the leak] – certainly from the other side. We behaved fairly. As fair as you can be in this business.
"The first person we called on Thursday was Julian Nagelsmann. You don't share such a decision on the phone. That's why we met the next day at Sabener Strasse. We waited until there was a commitment from Thomas Tuchel."
Indeed, although the leak looked "bad", the Bayern chief explained why it was not possible to dismiss Nagelsmann before putting a deal in place with Tuchel.
"It came out before Thomas Tuchel agreed, so I wouldn't have been able to call Julian yet," Salihamidzic said.
"I couldn't have told him, 'we're talking to Thomas now, but if he doesn't want to, you'll go ahead'.
"Of course, it's bad that this comes out beforehand, but that's not our fault."
Now, Bayern are looking forward to a future with Tuchel, even if he has had strained relationships with bosses at Borussia Dortmund, Paris Saint-Germain and Chelsea.
Disputes have often centred around transfer business, but the Bundesliga champions are ready to back Tuchel.
"With Julian Nagelsmann, we entered the transfer market together and discussed everything. We will do the same with Thomas Tuchel," Salihamidzic said.
"The coach's ideas are important, he has to transfer them to the team. We have let Julian be Julian and will also let Thomas Tuchel be Thomas Tuchel."
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