If LaLiga's title race wasn't tantalising enough already, Barcelona's shock defeat to Granada on Thursday really threw a spanner in the works.
It looks set to be the most gripping end to any of the top five European leagues this term, and almost certainly the least predictable finish to LaLiga since 2006-07.
Back then there were three teams in with a chance of taking home the title on the final day of the season – Real Madrid and Barcelona, of course, plus Juande Ramos' Sevilla.
As it was, Madrid and Barca won on the last day whereas Sevilla – who needed a win and for the other two to lose – lost at home to Villarreal.
Madrid finished top by virtue of a better head-to-head record over Barca, who were essentially denied the title by their local rivals Espanyol, slumping to a 2-2 draw with them on the penultimate day to hand Los Blancos the initiative.
For the first time since then, Sevilla are again in with a shout of upsetting established order, though on this occasion Atletico Madrid are in the mix as well.
In fact, with just three points separating first from fourth with five games left, it's the closest title race LaLiga has ever seen in a 20-team campaign (1987-1995, 1997-present).
Diego Simeone's side looked certainties for the title not too long ago: at the start of February, they were 11 points clear, but they've won only six of their 14 league games since, including a defeat to Sevilla in early April.
Yet, remarkably, it's still in Atletico's hands thanks to Barca's surprise loss at home to Granada on Thursday.
What made that defeat even more incredible was the fact Granada had just 18 per cent of the ball and scored twice from an xG (expected goals) value of just 0.69. This means they netted more than two times as many as they should have, which speaks to how stunningly clinical they were.
Interestingly – or, infuriatingly, if you're a fan – it was Barcelona's second-highest share of the ball in a league game this season, behind only 82.1 per cent against Cadiz. They lost both games.
It's all shaping up for potentially decisive blows to be struck across May 8 and 9, when the top four all play each other – Barca host Atletico on the Saturday, with Sevilla going to Madrid the next day.
But what does our prediction model say about the most likely outcome in the title race?
How does the predictor work?
The data model estimates the probability of each match outcome – either a win, draw or loss – based on each team's attacking and defensive quality. Those ratings are allocated based on four years' worth of comprehensive historic data points and results, with more weighting given to recent matches to account for improvements or declines in form and performance trends.
The AI simulation takes into account the quality of the opposition that a team scores or concedes goals against and rewards them accordingly. All that data is used to simulate upcoming matches using goal predictions from the Poisson distribution – a detailed mathematical model – with the two teams' attacking and defending ratings used as inputs.
The outcome of the season is then simulated on 10,000 different occasions in order to generate the most accurate possible percentage chance of each team finishing in their ultimate league position.
Without further ado, let's have a good look at the results of the simulation with the predicted final league table…
Atletico take the crown
There we have it… The AI predictor still sees Atletico as the likely champions, with a 38 per cent probability.
It essentially looks like it will come down to their showdown with Barca next Saturday. Atletico hold a slight advantage having beaten Barcelona 1-0 in Madrid earlier this season, and our predictor seemingly doesn't expect Ronald Koeman's men to overturn that at Camp Nou, as the model sees Atletico winning the title by virtue of their head-to-head record.
Nevertheless, Barcelona's outlook is almost identical to just a few weeks ago when the data suggested they had a 32.8 per cent chance, that now dropping ever so slightly to 32.6 – but you can't help but wonder what it would have been had they beaten Granada.
Madrid have drawn two of their previous three games 0-0, and so their chances have dropped from 34.4 per cent to a 26.6 per cent likelihood of winning the title.
Sevilla, perhaps unsurprisingly, remain the outsiders and our prediction model still only gives them a 2.8 per cent probability of winning their first league title since 1946.
However, that's 28 times more likely than just 18 days ago when the data gave them a 0.1 per cent chance of finishing top.
Everything seemingly hinges on next weekend…
'Super simple' – Lille president rules out January exit for Jonathan David
Lille president Olivier Letang has categorically ruled out a January exit for forward Jonathan David amid links with a number of European clubs.
David is out of contract at the end of the season and has been touted as a target for the likes of Bayern Munich, Juventus and Barcelona.
Speaking this week, the Canada international named Barcelona as his "dream" club but suggested he would prefer not to leave Lille mid-season.
And in an interview with After Foot RMC, Letang confirmed no bids have yet been tabled ahead of the January window.
"We are not going to sell him in January, and we have not received any offer for him," he said.
"Jonathan's situation is super simple. We are very happy to have him with us.
"Last season he had one more year left on his contract. We were trying to qualify for the Champions League.
"You have a guy who scores 20 to 25 goals a season. We had no obligation to sell him."
David is into his fifth season with Lille and has scored 97 goals in 202 games for the Ligue 1 side in all competitions while assisting a further 18.
Seven of those goals have arrived in 11 appearances this term, including in Champions League games against Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid and Juventus.
The 24-year-old's best league season with Lille saw him score 24 goals in 2022-23, while he has netted 19, 15 and 13 in the other full campaigns.
Lille chief Letang reiterated that David has been offered a new deal to stay on at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, but selling him has never been an option.
"He is a player who scores between 20 and 25 goals and helps us qualify for the Champions League," he said.
"Plus, Jonathan loves Lille, which is his club. Our position was very clear from the beginning – we think of the athlete.
"Obviously, he already has an offer that is in his hands, the ball is in his court."
Guardiola suggests Man City's recent form played part in signing new contract
Pep Guardiola suggested Manchester City's run of four successive defeats was part of the reason for his contract extension.
The 53-year-old recently signed a two-year deal, which will run out in 2027, ending months of speculation about his future after his contract had been due to run out at the end of the campaign.
Following a 2-1 defeat to Brighton before the international break, Guardiola's side have lost each of their last four matches in all competitions for the first time in his managerial career.
"I felt I could not leave now. Maybe the four defeats was why," he told the club's website.
"I think we deserve, after four defeats in a row, to bounce back and try to turn the situation. I think we deserve to be here. I am not arrogant to say, but it's the truth."
Guardiola has led Manchester City to 18 major trophies during his nine-year stint at the club and posted a 72% win ratio.
He added that he was determined to help the club get back to a state where they are "more stable and more consistent".
"We have to recover that because right now we don't have it and that's the target we have to do," he said.
City chairman Khaldoon Al Mubarak added: "Like every City fan, I am delighted that Pep's journey with Manchester City will continue, allowing his dedication, passion and innovative thinking to continue to shape the landscape of the game.
"His hunger for improvement and success remains insatiable and the direct beneficiaries of that will continue to be our players and coaching staff, the culture of our club, and the English game at large."
Leicester's Fatawu ruled out for rest of season with ACL injury
Leicester City manager Steve Cooper confirmed Abdul Fatawu will miss the rest of the season.
The 20-year-old sustained an anterior cruciate ligament injury (ACL) while playing for Ghana against Angola during the international break.
Fatawu has featured in all 11 of Leicester's Premier League matches so far this season and has registered two assists.
No Leicester player has attempted (61) or completed (29) more dribbles than him, while his 30 crosses is also a team-high in the top-flight this season.
"It's not good, it's a serious injury," said Cooper ahead of their match against Chelsea on Saturday.
"It's a real blow, first and foremost for him, being a young player and having an injury as serious as what an ACL is.
"Albeit, it can be quite common in sport, and in particular football, but it's still a serious injury.
"For it to happen at a young age is a blow for him and a blow for us as well.
"He's obviously a big talent and a young player, as exciting as he can be at his age, with lots to learn.
"It's only a pause, and we will make sure, as difficult as it is at the moment for him, that he comes back being a stronger player and person, which, with the mentality and character that he has, I think will be the case."
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