It was billed as one of the most important Clasicos in years. The outcome, it was said, could set the tone for the entire season and, by extension, the future of Lionel Messi.
The Argentinian's revelation he wanted to leave was still ringing in the ears of Barca directors two months on in October last year. While they'd managed to keep hold of him, owing to Messi's reluctance to drag his club through the courts, his form on the pitch hardly suggested he was at peace.
One goal in four LaLiga matches heading into that October 24 Clasico was his slowest start to a season since 2005-06 when he was a fresh-faced teenager still trying to establish himself.
What followed at Camp Nou on that Saturday looked set to plunge Barca further into crisis, as the Catalans lost 3-1 to Madrid despite dominating much of the match. It was a bad look for new coach Ronald Koeman – already under-fire – as well as Messi, whose failure to score took him to 515 minutes without a goal against Los Blancos in LaLiga, just seven shy of his worst ever barren run in El Clasico.
Messi's proviso for staying beyond the end of 2020-21 was that Barca had to look capable of winning titles; while supporters felt hard done by given Sergio Ramos' theatrics when winning a penalty, there was little in the Blaugrana's performance to suggest a title tilt was realistic.
But here we are, a little over five months later, and the outlook is rather different.
Koeman gets to know his squad
"Koeman explodes," read the front page of Mundo Deportivo the next day. "A Clasico robbery," declared Sport. Both publications listed their grievances with the result but largely glossed over Barca's issues.
This was more than just a one-off defeat in a Clasico, it was the second of four league losses in a run of just seven games. That run, culminating in a shock loss to promoted Cadiz in December, saw them suffer at least four defeats in the first 10 LaLiga matches of the season for only the second time since 1988.
Much of the blame was laid at the feet of Koeman.
His decision to implement his favoured 4-2-3-1 system wasn't necessarily surprising, but given Barca's attachment to 4-3-3, it was certainly seen as a bold move.
To say that it flatly didn't work wouldn't be entirely accurate, but Koeman's subsequent search for alternative set-ups speaks to the fact Barca weren't convincing.
Since suffering back-to-back defeats to Cadiz and Juventus at the start of December, Koeman has largely – depending on personnel and opponents – switched between 4-3-3 and 3-4-2-1.
While their form hasn't been perfect across all fronts, they've not lost a LaLiga game since. The move to a back three in particular has appeared to resonate with the Barca squad, winning six of seven league – and conceding just three goals – matches when operating with such a defensive structure.
That 85.7 per cent win ratio is a significant improvement on the 63.6 per cent recorded in games where they've deployed a back four, suggesting the three-man defence allows for greater harmony across the team.
Frenkie finds his feet
Koeman's tinkering has helped bring the best out of several areas of the team, but most notably the centre of midfield. While Sergio Busquets has received widespread praise, arguably the two main benefactors have been Frenkie de Jong and Pedri.
De Jong's first season at Barca, while by no means bad, was hardly scintillating, and Koeman's arrival initially saw him placed in a double pivot, though activity maps show he often got drawn out to the left.
But over the season as a whole, compared to 2019-20, De Jong has clearly made good strides and is enjoying greater attacking freedom.
As across the entirety of last season, the former Ajax man has made 29 league appearances in 2020-21, but his goal involvements have enjoyed a boost (two goals, two assists in 2019-20, three goals and four assists in 2020-21). Added to that, he's averaging 1.1 key passes per game, up from 0.9.
But it's De Jong's general influence that has increased most, with his 87.1 touches per game up considerably from 66.2, while he averages 25.3 carries per game, as opposed to 17.7 last term.
Not only have De Jong's team-mates seemingly placed greater trust in him, but he's relishing the added responsibility. The Netherlands midfielder is seeing much more of the ball and using his increased influence effectively.
No player in LaLiga has covered more distance carrying the ball upfield than De Jong (4,375.8 metres), while he also leads the league in total progressive carries (405) and is second only to Pau Torres on progressive carries of 10 yards or more (168).
Indeed, De Jong ranks towards the top of almost every metric relating to ball carries, highlighting just how important he is to Barca getting up the pitch.
The heir apparent
It quickly became clear Pedri was going to establish himself in the Barca first-team squad following his move from Las Palmas, convincing the club they would be better served keeping the teenager around than sending him out on loan.
But it's only been since Koeman altered his position that he's really come to life, essentially nailing down a place in the starting XI.
For the first few months of the season, Pedri often operated from a slightly wider position, cutting in from the left onto his right foot. Now, while he still often drifts out to the left flank, the Spain international is spending more time in the central zone outside the opposition's penalty area.
He is averaging 26.9 more touches per game since the first 10 matches of the season – understandable given he's operating closer to the thick of the action – and that in turn has helped him create 1.4 chances per game, up from 0.8.
But to focus solely on that would be to do Pedri a disservice. His talent as a fine passer and nimble mover make him the ideal attacking conduit, as evidenced by his 132 shot-ending open-play sequences – ranking third among LaLiga midfielders to have played 900 minutes or more this term.
In fact, of these players, Pedri is involved in the most shot-ending open-play sequences per 90 minutes (6.2).
Andres Iniesta comparisons might be considered a little over the top at this point, but there's certainly no doubt the teenager is thriving. Maybe he could be the World Cup winner's heir...
Messi's miraculous revival
The chief instigator in Barca's revival has, of course, been Messi himself. Having only scored four times, with no assists, in Barca's first 10 league games this term, he's netted 19 and laid on eight in 17 since.
It has been a remarkable resurgence and central to Barca's climb up the table, with the Blaugrana's unbeaten run undoubtedly inspired by their talisman.
Messi's improvement has been almost inexplicable because his shooting habits haven't changed massively. After all, his shots per game are only up slightly from 4.9 to 6.0, with this increase spread across his efforts from both inside the box (2.9 shots per 90, up from 2.4) and outside the area (3.4 shots per 90, up from 2.7).
Again, there's not a huge difference in his expected goals (xG) value per shot, with his efforts worth 0.11 on average until December 6 and 0.13 since, yet Messi has gone from underperforming his overall xG (four goals, 5.6 xG) to massively overperforming (19 goals, 12.9 xG).
One potential explanation comes from looking at his shot maps over the two periods in question. Messi does now appear to be getting into the centre of the box more often, with as many as 10 of his 18 goals (excluding penalties) coming from this part of the pitch.
But it's also worth bearing in mind that Messi, without a significant pre-season, saw his preparations for the new campaign interrupted heavily by the off-field controversy. That period of turmoil will surely have taken its toll mentally, perhaps making it inevitable that his focus should drift and his form suffer.
Whatever the reason, Koeman has got Messi back on track and his team-mates able contributing in recent months, seemingly ensuring the coach will be safe for another season.
But the job is not done yet. Messi wanted Koeman and Barca to prove that winning titles was possible. They've more or less done that and now need his brilliance to guide them through a do-or-die Clasico.
Philadelphia Union v Real Salt Lake: Curtin keen to maintain tough reputation
Jim Curtin is keen to see the Philadelphia Union retain their reputation as a tough team to play against, with his side still unbeaten this season ahead of Saturday's visit of Real Salt Lake.
The Union sit sixth in the Eastern Conference standings with three wins and four draws so far this term, their latest stalemate coming by a 2-2 scoreline against Atlanta United last time out.
While Curtin was somewhat disappointed to see the Union's three-match winning streak ended in Georgia, he is pleased by the resilience they have shown ahead of their return to Subaru Park.
"Whether people in the public think we're good or think we're bad, they will at least say we're tough to play against," Curtin said.
"I think that unequivocally across the board, there's not a coach or general manager or fan in this league that would say we're an easy team to deal with and play against.
"Part of that is not losing, finding ways to turn losses into ties, ties into wins, and we'll look to try to continue to do that and really protect our home field."
Philadelphia face a tough test this weekend, though, against a Salt Lake team currently flying high in third in the Western Conference.
Pablo Mastroeni's men are unbeaten in their last four games, producing their best performance of 2024 to date last time out as they thrashed the Chicago Fire 4-0 on the road.
"I'm so excited about what we can do as a group, as players and coaches, and the onus is on us to continue to get better and really push this thing forward," Mastroeni said after that win.
"I think we've established a decent standard, and we know where we are at our best and where we are lacking, but it's testament to the work the guys are doing during the week."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Philadelphia Union – Mikael Uhre
Uhre scored the Union's first goal as they fought back from two goals down to draw in Atlanta.
He has four goal involvements in MLS play this term (three goals, one assist), a tally only matched by Daniel Gazdag and Julian Carranza among his Union team-mates.
Real Salt Lake – Cristian Arango
Arango scored twice against the Fire last week and has now been involved in at least one goal in four straight regular-season road games, equalling the longest such streak in Real Salt Lake's history.
Might he break new ground at Subaru Park?
MATCH PREDICTION – PHILADELPHIA UNION WIN
The Union's only win in 12 all-time meetings with Real Salt Lake was a 4-1 home victory when the teams last met at Subaru Park in May 2018 (six draws, five losses). This will be the sides' first meeting on any ground since June 2019.
While the visitors are unbeaten in their last five matches (three wins, two draws), this could be their toughest test to date.
Philadelphia have only lost one of their last 41 regular-season home matches (28 wins, 12 draws), including going unbeaten through their last 16 (nine wins, seven draws), a run dating back over a year.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Philadelphia Union – 57.8%
Real Salt Lake – 17.3%
Draw – 24.9%
New York City v Charlotte FC: Cushing wants more from in-form hosts
Nick Cushing is pushing for more as New York City bid for a third successive victory against Charlotte FC at Yankee Stadium on Saturday.
NYCFC are eighth in the Eastern Conference standings after back-to-back 2-0 home wins over the New England Revolution and D.C. United, having gone four unbeaten (two wins, two draws).
Their consecutive wins have come after a run of just two victories in their previous 10 (three draws, five losses), but Cushing does not want his team to stop there.
"I think the three-game run is something that we have a huge desire to achieve," Cushing said.
"I said after the game in the locker room, it has been a long time since we've gone back-to-back. It's been too long, really, since we went back-to-back, so it's good to enjoy that after the game.
"Now we have the opportunity to do a three-game run. We have to make sure we do that before we think about anything else."
Charlotte have gone the opposite way in recent weeks, losing two of their last three games to leave them behind New York on goal difference.
Former Aston Villa boss Dean Smith acknowledges they need to show more in the forward areas after averaging just one goal per game in 2024.
"That's certainly an area where we need to be better, I think we all know that. We've been working on it for the last three or four weeks," Smith said.
"I think defensively we've been really solid. In terms of our creativity, we've had some big chances that we haven't taken.
"Last week [in a 3-0 loss to Minnesota United] there were some moments we didn't take as well, technically we just failed on that."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
New York City – Santiago Rodriguez
Rodriguez recorded a goal and an assist in NYCFC's win over D.C. last week and now has four goals and one assist this season, with all of those involvements coming at home.
Since the start of last season, 14 (seven goals, seven assists) of Rodriguez's 16 goal contributions in regular-season matches have come at home.
Charlotte FC – Ashley Westwood
Charlotte have failed to score in two of their last three games, and a lack of creativity has been a theme of their campaign to date.
Captain Westwood leads all Charlotte players for chances created this season, with 13, and he could be key if they are to hit the goal trail.
MATCH PREDICTION – NEW YORK CITY WIN
Charlotte are unbeaten in five all-time meetings with New York (four wins, one draw), including a 1-0 win over them in the teams' season opener on February 24.
The Crown are the only team NYCFC have faced more than once in MLS play and never defeated, but that may just change this week.
New York have won back-to-back matches to nil, a major defensive upturn after they managed just one clean sheet in their previous 10. Charlotte, meanwhile, have only earned one point from four road games in MLS this year, losing their last three in a row.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
New York City – 51.8%
Charlotte FC – 21.1%
Draw – 27.1%
FC Cincinnati v Colorado Rapids: Armas wants players to enjoy rise
Chris Armas says his Colorado Rapids players deserve to enjoy their meteoric rise up the MLS standings, and he is confident they will not get carried away ahead of their trip to FC Cincinnati.
Colorado sit fourth in the Western Conference with 15 points from nine games, winning three of their last four after an inconsistent start to the year.
They benefitted from two own goals as they beat FC Dallas 2-1 last time out, and Armas has no issue with his players enjoying their place in the standings, particularly given they finished rock bottom of the West in 2023.
"I see the boys looking at the TV where we have the standings posted, and they see that we're climbing, so it's all good stuff," Armas said.
"From day one the message that I preached is that everything we do will be based on hard work and that we will never get too low on ourselves.
"We don't get too high, the boys are realistic. That part's not that hard and our group is hungry and looking to improve every day."
Supporters' Shield holders Cincinnati have had an up-and-down start, going unbeaten through their first five games of the year before suffering back-to-back defeats against the New York Red Bulls and CF Montreal (both 1-2).
However, Pat Noonan's men bounced back with a statement 2-1 victory over Atlanta United last week, and defender Matt Miazga hopes that result will be a turning point.
"I look at everybody and I'm like, 'Alright, I see in his face, I see in his face. We want it,'" Miazga said.
"We all realised we are a top team, with big personalities, big characters, and it's time to show up in big moments."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
FC Cincinnati – Luciano Acosta
Acosta assisted Cincinnati's equaliser against Atlanta last Saturday before scoring the winner two minutes later.
That was Acosta's 13th regular-season match with a goal and an assist since the start of the 2022 season, three more than any other player in MLS has managed during that time.
Colorado Rapids – Djordje Mihailovic
Mihailovic has created at least twice as many chances as any other Colorado player in MLS this term (16), with Keegan Rosenberry and Sam Vines creating eight apiece.
He also has two goals and one assist to his name, while only Rafael Navarro (16) has bettered his 10 successful dribbles among his team-mates.
MATCH PREDICTION – FC CINCINNATI WIN
Cincinnati earned their first win over the Rapids last May, triumphing 1-0 on the road. The Rapids had won the first two meetings between the sides, including a 2-0 victory on their only previous trip to Cincinnati.
The Rapids also enter Saturday's game having won successive regular-season matches for the first time since September 2022, eyeing their first three-game winning streak since August 2021.
However, Cincinnati ended their poor run by beating Atlanta last time out and have, despite some underwhelming performances, only lost two of their nine league games this term (four wins, three draws). On home soil, the Supporters' Shield holders are favourites.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
FC Cincinnati – 49.3%
Colorado Rapids – 23.3%
Draw – 27.4%
SportsMax is the Caribbean sports channel of choice, committed to providing sporting content of the highest quality to the Caribbean, delivered by a team of highly innovative, passionate and qualified professionals.
(876) 619-7629
digitalmedia@sportsmax.tv
