EPL

Talking Point: Van de Beek must adapt to kick-start Man Utd career

By Sports Desk February 13, 2021

Manchester United's FA Cup win over West Ham wasn't the easiest watch for the neutral, but the average armchair fan likely had a better time than Donny van de Beek.

The Netherlands midfielder was granted the chance to impress in the number 10 role in just his 12th start for the Red Devils. With Bruno Fernandes resting on the bench and Paul Pogba out injured, this was Van de Beek's latest opportunity to show his creative mettle.

After 73 lacklustre minutes, he headed ruefully back to the bench. He had completed 28 passes and touched the ball 46 times, the lowest numbers of any starting outfield player for United. Fernandes, on as his replacement, surpassed both those figures in normal and extra time, with fellow sub Scott McTominay scoring the winning goal.

This was the latest unspectacular outing for a player who caught the eye of the world's biggest clubs at Ajax. An initial fee of £34.7million that looked a bargain at first is beginning to seem a bit of a waste as a player so in tune with that wonderful Ajax harmony looks increasingly disconnected in a United shirt.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has certainly not given up on Van de Beek just 25 games into his United career and has repeatedly called for patience as he beds the 23-year-old into his plans. But as Europa League football returns and fixtures pile up again, and with Pogba sidelined at least for a few weeks, Van de Beek is under mounting pressure to prove his worth.

 

BEEN THERE, DON THAT

During his final three seasons in the Netherlands, in which time he had established himself as first choice at the Johan Cruijff ArenA, Van de Beek registered 39 goals and 29 assists in 132 games in all competitions. No Eredivisie midfielder scored more in that time, and only former team-mate Hakim Ziyech had more assists (54).

Ziyech is an interesting comparison. From 2017-18 to 2019-20, the playmaker, now with Chelsea, was consistently the only Eredivisie midfielder with superior attacking numbers to Van de Beek. They were top two in that time for chances created from open play (275 for Ziyech, 192 for Van de Beek); top two for shots (543 and 242); and top two for efforts on target (180 and 101).

Van de Beek was also third for passes ending in the final third on 1,938, while only two midfielders (Ziyech and AZ's Fredrik Midtsjo) started more sequences to end in a shot, underlining his importance when it came to synchronising the Ajax attack. The fact he did all this from a deeper starting position than Ziyech is notable: the majority of his touches came in the left-centre of the pitch, an area that served as a springboard for forays forward that yielded 28 chance-creating carries in the Eredivisie alone.

 

ILL-FITTING

There is a notion that Van de Beek was an opportunistic signing by Solskjaer, who had no guarantees over Pogba's future or the chances of bringing in top target Jadon Sancho.

You can understand his desire to cover that base. Over those same three seasons (2017-18 to 2019-20), Pogba was the United midfielder with the most touches (7,909), the most goals (23), most assists (26), most chances created from open play (163), most passes ending in the final third (2,358) and most shots (180). And, like Van de Beek, Pogba mostly thrived to the centre-left of midfield in that time – nearly 20 per cent of his total touches all came in that general area of the pitch.

Yet a key difference lies in their possession play: during that same time frame, Pogba averaged roughly 20 more completed passes and 32 more touches in each game than Van de Beek, who was happier to let others have the ball as he took up threatening positions. Once it became clear he was spending another season at United, this gave Pogba a distinct advantage in Solskjaer's system.

The arrival of Bruno Fernandes last January more or less prompted the United boss to give up on a 4-3-3 and use a predominant 4-2-3-1, in which the attacking players are afforded relative free reign to produce match-winning moments in front of a stable base. This has often meant Pogba dropping deeper into a position that, while not his favourite, is one in which those ball-playing numbers make him a distinctly valuable asset, just as they did in France's World Cup win three years ago. Van de Beek has proven less adaptable.

 

MAKE OR BEEK

Solskjaer tends to have two versions of deep central midfielders. Playmakers like Pogba and Nemanja Matic are generally used in matches where more penetrative passing is needed to unlock low blocks who are happy to give up the ball. When facing stronger, more possession-hungry sides, the United manager has found comfort – and success – in a double pivot of Fred and McTominay, who bring far greater dynamism without the ball.

Van de Beek has, so far, failed to convince as either.

Among United midfielders to play more than three games this season, Van de Beek has produced just one goal and one assist, with only Fred and Matic yet to have a direct goal involvement. Per 90 minutes, he averages roughly three passes into the final third and just 0.3 shots, comfortably the lowest, while only substitute winger Dan James averages fewer touches (60.95).

He appears little better suited to the disruptive role, either. Per 90 minutes this season, Van de Beek averages less than one tackle, half the number of interceptions as McTominay and fewer successful duels than any midfield team-mates except James and Juan Mata. Pogba is top of that particular chart with eight.

Right now, Van de Beek appears suited neither to the recycling service of United's deep midfield nor to the attacking quartet where spontaneity is king. He must adapt soon if his Old Trafford career is going to take off.

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    This weekend brings the match everyone has been waiting for the Women's Super League.

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    So there is still work to do for City if they are to match Chelsea's pace, with the Blues already boasting a goal difference eight better than that of their rivals.

    City might be able to point to some misfortune on that front, though, as their total xG figure is the highest in the league so far this term.

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    Shaw's Golden Touch 

    While City have not matched Chelsea's ruthlessness this season, that does not apply to last season's Golden Boot winner, Khadija 'Bunny' Shaw.

    She has seven goals in as many games this season, overperforming her league-high xG figure of 4.83 xG, and also leads the competition for shots (28) and shots on target (12).

    Shaw has been presented with nine big chances and has converted five of them, which is the highest conversion rate (55.56%) of the 13 players to have had more than three such opportunities in the league this term.

    Of players to have had at least 10 shots in the WSL, she also has the joint-best shot conversion rate (25%) – level with Nikita Parris (three goals from 12 shots) and Johanna Rytting Kaneryd (three goals from 12 shots).

    Since the beginning of last season, meanwhile, Shaw has scored 28 goals, at least 13 more than any other player in the competition (Elisabeth Terland is next on 15). 

     

    City were hoping their reliance on Shaw would be lessened when they swooped for the WSL's all-time leading scorer in Vivianne Miedema, but a recurring knee issue has left the former Arsenal star on the sidelines once more. Prior to her latest injury setback, Miedema had scored two goals in five games in all competitions for City.

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    New Boss, New Look

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    Timing is Everything

    One theme of Chelsea's season has been their ability to come out of the blocks fast and bury opponents early on, such as when they netted twice in the first 16 minutes of their 2-1 win at Arsenal. The Blues have scored 11 first-half goals in the WSL this season, more than any other team. Their 7.28 first-half xG is also the highest in the league, beating City's 6.78.

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    So, Chelsea are often faster starters, but must be aware of City's ability to pull results out of the fire. Saturday's visitors have gained the most points from losing positions in the WSL this term (seven). Chelsea have not gained any points from losing positions, though that is, of course, because they are yet to trail at any point.

    After Chelsea's magnificent start to the campaign, the Opta supercomputer still views them as hot favourites to retain their crown. The Blues are given a huge 79.3% chance of winning the title compared to City's 19.9%, with Taylor's team finishing second again in 66.8% of our 2024-25 season simulations.

     

    The significance of this game, though, means those figures could drastically change after Saturday. Bompastor's team are given a 53.7% chance of emerging victorious, while City's hope of victory are rated at 22.5%.

    City would surely be content with a draw on the road, which would halt Chelsea's winning streak and maintain their advantage at the summit, and 23.7% of the supercomputer's pre-match simulations finished all square. 

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