Inter beat Juventus. Juventus beat Milan. Milan beat Inter. For once it has been tough to predict the title race in Serie A.
Winning the Scudetto was not enough for Maurizio Sarri to keep his job at Juve last season, meaning Andrea Pirlo is under significant pressure as the Bianconeri chase a 10th straight league crown.
However, they have struggled to convince under the former midfield metronome and sit seven points adrift of leaders Milan in fourth, although they hold a game in hand.
There has seemingly never been a better chance for Inter, who are two points off top in second, and Milan to end Scudetto droughts that date back to 2009-10 and 2010-11 respectively.
Fans and pundits will continue to have their say on who will sit top come the end of the season, and the Stats Perform AI team have also crunched the numbers to predict the champions for the 2020-21 campaign.
With the majority of the 20 teams having reached the halfway stage of the league campaign, they have simulated how the rest of the season may play out.
The data model estimates the probability of each match outcome – either a win, draw or loss – based on each team's attacking and defensive quality.
Those ratings are allocated based on four years' worth of comprehensive historic data points and results, with more weighting given to recent matches to account for improvements or declines in form and performance trends.
The AI simulation takes into account the quality of the opposition that a team scores or concedes goals against and rewards them accordingly.
All that data is used to simulate upcoming matches using goal predictions from the Poisson distribution – a detailed mathematical model – with the two teams' attacking and defending ratings used as inputs.
The outcome of the season is then simulated on 10,000 different occasions in order to generate the most accurate possible percentage chance of each team finishing in their ultimate league position.
Without further ado, let's have a good look at the results of the simulation with the predicted final league table.
INTER END JUVE'S REIGN
Although they sit second at the halfway stage, our model predicts Inter will end Juve's dominance of Serie A.
Inter have a 35.7 per cent chance of topping the table for the first time since their treble-winning campaign of 2009-10 and it is projected they will do so by a two-point advantage.
Not only do Milan surrender top spot to the Nerazzurri, they slip behind Juve into third with the top three separated by just three points. It would still represent their best finish since 2012-13.
Juve's chance of retaining the title is deemed to be 23.1 per cent, marginally better than Milan's 21.6 per cent.
ATALANTA RETURN TO CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
Gian Piero Gasperini steered Atalanta to Champions League qualification for the first time in their history in 2018-19 and made it back-to-back top-three finishes last season.
They are predicted to return to Europe's premier club competition by finishing fourth, edging out Napoli – they even have a 6.8 per cent chance of pulling off an unlikely title win.
Gennaro Gattuso's side have a 17 per cent probability of snatching the final Champions League qualification berth, with Atalanta's prospects narrowly superior at 17.4 per cent.
Roma are predicted to fall from their current position of third down to sixth but that is still good enough for them to deny arch-rivals Lazio qualification to the inaugural Europa Conference League.
The top six may need to beware of Sassuolo, Hellas Verona and Sampdoria, however. Sassuolo have a 0.3 per cent likelihood of finishing inside the top four, while Verona (0.6 per cent) and Sampdoria (0.3 per cent) also have an outside chance of stealing European qualification, though our predictor suggests Lazio will finish 12 points clear of Sassuolo in seventh.
GENOA AND TORINO ESCAPE DROP
At the turn of the year Torino were rock bottom with one win from their opening 14 games and Genoa were in the relegation zone with them.
However, Torino and Genoa have both moved out of the bottom three by claiming six points and eight points respectively over their past five games.
The two sides are predicted to maintain strong enough form to stay out of the drop zone, with Crotone (20th), Parma (19th) and Cagliari (18th) projected to suffer relegation to Serie B.
It is by no means a guarantee, though. Genoa are only 0.2 per cent more likely to come 17th than they are to suffer relegation by finishing 18th, while Torino's differential between 15th – where they are predicted to place – and third-bottom is 2.7 per cent.
Naparima, Fatima and San Juan North maintain 100 per cent win records in SSFL
Naparima, Fatima and San Juan North maintained their unblemished records following the fourth round of matches in Trinidad and Tobago’s Secondary Schools Football League (SSFL) on Saturday.
Naparima College produced the most impressive victory of the unbeaten schools with a 7-0 thrashing of East Mucurapo Secondary. The result means they sit atop the 15-team league table with 12 points but enjoy a far-superior goal difference over Fatima College, who blanked Pleasantville Secondary 5-0.
San Juan North Secondary had a tougher time of it as they edged Queens Royal College 2-1 and lie third in the standings.
Meanwhile, Presentation College picked up their second win of the season with an impressive 3-0 victory over Chaquanas North Secondary. The three points earned from the win sees them fourth in the standings with seven points, one more than fifth-place Malick Secondary, who lost 1-2 to Speyside High School, who also have six points but are seventh on goal difference.
Also on six points but are sixth in the standings are Arima North Secondary who battled St Benedict’s College to a 1-1 stalemate.
St Anthony’s College defeated St Mary’s College 3-0 for their second win of the season in the other fixture played on Saturday.
Alvaro Morata brace inspires Atletico Madrid to victory over rivals Real Madrid
Alvaro Morata struck with two headers as Atletico Madrid clinched a rare LaLiga win over arch-rivals Real Madrid, winning 3-1 at the Metropolitano Stadium.
Morata and Antoine Griezmann gave Atletico a 2-0 lead inside 18 minutes and after Toni Kroos reduced the deficit before the break, Spain captain Morata headed his second against his former club a minute after the restart.
Atletico, who had won only one of their previous 14 league meetings against their rivals, halted Real’s five-game winning start to the league season.
Villarreal’s former Liverpool defender Alberto Moreno was sent off as his side drew 1-1 at Rayo Vallecano.
Kike Perez equalised for Vallecano a minute after Alexander Sorloth had fired Villarreal into a first-half lead and Moreno was shown his second yellow card in the 77th minute.
Real Sociedad sealed their second league win of the season in a seven-goal thriller at home against Getafe.
The visitors led 2-1 at half-time through Carles Alena’s header and Borja Mayoral’s penalty after Takefusa Kubo had given Sociedad an early lead.
Mikel Oyarzabal’s second-half double – his first coming from the penalty spot – sandwiched Brais Mendez’s effort to put the home side 4-2 up before Juan Latasa headed a late third for Getafe.
Guido Rodriguez’s second-half equaliser earned Real Betis a 1-1 home draw against Cadiz, who had led at half-time through Chris Ramos.
Las Palmas overcame the second-half dismissal of Mika Marmol to secure their first win of the season, 1-0 at home against second-bottom Granada, thanks to Kirian Rodriguez’s stoppage-time goal.
Italy midfielder Federico Dimarco’s first goal of the season clinched Inter Milan a 1-0 win at bottom club Empoli and kept them top of Serie A.
Dimarco struck early in the second half as Inter extended their 100 per cent league record this season to five matches.
Reigning champions Napoli were held 0-0 at Bologna and are now seven points behind Inter.
Fiorentina kept pace with the top four as goals from Lucas Martinez Quarta and Giacomo Bonaventura secured them a 2-0 victory at winless Udinese.
Atalanta, a point behind Fiorentina, won 2-0 at home against second-bottom Cagliari, with former Everton winger Ademola Lookman and Mario Pasalic both on target.
Duvan Zapata’s late header rescued a 1-1 draw for Torino at Roma, who had led through Romelu Lukaku’s second-half goal.
In the Bundesliga, Bayer Leverkusen are level on points with leaders Bayern Munich after beating newly-promoted Heidenheim 4-1 at BayArena.
Victor Boniface’s early opener for Leverkusen was cancelled out by Eren Dinkci in the second half, but Jonas Hofmann put the home side back in front and after Boniface had converted a penalty, Amine Adli completed the scoring.
Eintracht Frankfurt and Freiburg sit eighth and ninth respectively after drawing 0-0 at Deutsche Bank Park.
Paris St Germain climbed to within two points of surprise early Ligue 1 leaders Brest by thrashing Marseille 4-0 at Parc des Princes.
Goncalo Ramos notched a second-half double after first-half efforts from Achraf Hakimi and Randal Kolo Muani.
Strasbourg and Le Havre are among the early pace-setters after winning 1-0 at Metz and 2-1 at home against rock-bottom Clermont respectively.
Teenager Habib Diarra fired Strasbourg’s winner as they notched their third league win of the season, while Nabil Alioui and Mohamed Bayo put Le Havre 2-0 up inside seven minutes before Cheick Konate replied for Clermont.
Lens registered their first win of the season in all competitions, 2-1 at home against Toulouse, thanks to Morgan Guilavogui’s late strike, while Rennes were held 0-0 at Montpellier.
Alvaro Morata brace helps Atletico end Real Madrid’s winning start to season
Alvaro Morata headed a double as Atletico Madrid beat arch rivals Real Madrid 3-1 at the Metropolitano Stadium.
The Spain captain and Antoine Griezmann headed Atletico into a 2-0 first-half lead and although Toni Kroos pulled one back for Real before the interval, Morata struck again at the start of the second period.
Atletico fully deserved a rare LaLiga win in the Madrid derby – they had won only one of their previous 14 league meetings – and halted their rivals’ six-game winning start to the season.
Atletico made a dream start as they stormed into a 2-0 lead inside the opening 20 minutes.
Former Real striker Morata headed them in front in the fourth minute, stealing in behind the away side’s defence to glance home Brazilian winger Samuel Lino’s excellent cross.
After a spell of patient Real possession, Atletico exposed their rivals again out wide to double their advantage.
This time it was Saul Niguez who delivered an inch-perfect cross into the box, from the same left side, which Griezmann headed beyond on-loan Chelsea goalkeeper Kepa Arrizabalaga.
Atletico almost added a third in the 31st minute when Kepa reacted smartly to keep out Saul’s effort.
An out-of-sorts Real hauled themselves back into it 10 minutes before the break through a piece of individual brilliance from Kroos, who turned neatly inside Marcos Llorente and arrowed a low shot into the bottom corner.
The visitors thought they had equalised just before the break, but the offside Antonio Rudiger was judged to have been interfering with play before Eduardo Camavinga turned the ball home.
Real boss Carlo Ancelotti sent on Joselu in place of Luka Modric for the second half, but his side were stunned inside a minute of the restart when Morata headed Atletico into a 3-1 lead.
Another Saul cross from the left picked out the ex-Chelsea striker and he provided another expertly-taken finish.
Atletico’s Mario Hermoso then headed against the crossbar before a triple substitution by Ancelotti saw Ferland Mendy, Nacho and Aurelien Tchouameni replace Fran Garcia, Lucas Vazquez and Camavinga.
Real began to force the issue as they searched for a way back into the match, with Rodrygo and Tchouameni both having efforts blocked and the latter fizzing a shot wide.
Rudiger and Federico Valverde both also fired shots just wide, but it was a night to forget for Ancelotti’ side, with a frustrated Jude Bellingham booked for a crude challenge in stoppage time.
Diego Simeone’s side climbed up to fifth, five points behind third-placed Madrid with a game in hand.
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