Inter beat Juventus. Juventus beat Milan. Milan beat Inter. For once it has been tough to predict the title race in Serie A.
Winning the Scudetto was not enough for Maurizio Sarri to keep his job at Juve last season, meaning Andrea Pirlo is under significant pressure as the Bianconeri chase a 10th straight league crown.
However, they have struggled to convince under the former midfield metronome and sit seven points adrift of leaders Milan in fourth, although they hold a game in hand.
There has seemingly never been a better chance for Inter, who are two points off top in second, and Milan to end Scudetto droughts that date back to 2009-10 and 2010-11 respectively.
Fans and pundits will continue to have their say on who will sit top come the end of the season, and the Stats Perform AI team have also crunched the numbers to predict the champions for the 2020-21 campaign.
With the majority of the 20 teams having reached the halfway stage of the league campaign, they have simulated how the rest of the season may play out.
The data model estimates the probability of each match outcome – either a win, draw or loss – based on each team's attacking and defensive quality.
Those ratings are allocated based on four years' worth of comprehensive historic data points and results, with more weighting given to recent matches to account for improvements or declines in form and performance trends.
The AI simulation takes into account the quality of the opposition that a team scores or concedes goals against and rewards them accordingly.
All that data is used to simulate upcoming matches using goal predictions from the Poisson distribution – a detailed mathematical model – with the two teams' attacking and defending ratings used as inputs.
The outcome of the season is then simulated on 10,000 different occasions in order to generate the most accurate possible percentage chance of each team finishing in their ultimate league position.
Without further ado, let's have a good look at the results of the simulation with the predicted final league table.
INTER END JUVE'S REIGN
Although they sit second at the halfway stage, our model predicts Inter will end Juve's dominance of Serie A.
Inter have a 35.7 per cent chance of topping the table for the first time since their treble-winning campaign of 2009-10 and it is projected they will do so by a two-point advantage.
Not only do Milan surrender top spot to the Nerazzurri, they slip behind Juve into third with the top three separated by just three points. It would still represent their best finish since 2012-13.
Juve's chance of retaining the title is deemed to be 23.1 per cent, marginally better than Milan's 21.6 per cent.
ATALANTA RETURN TO CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
Gian Piero Gasperini steered Atalanta to Champions League qualification for the first time in their history in 2018-19 and made it back-to-back top-three finishes last season.
They are predicted to return to Europe's premier club competition by finishing fourth, edging out Napoli – they even have a 6.8 per cent chance of pulling off an unlikely title win.
Gennaro Gattuso's side have a 17 per cent probability of snatching the final Champions League qualification berth, with Atalanta's prospects narrowly superior at 17.4 per cent.
Roma are predicted to fall from their current position of third down to sixth but that is still good enough for them to deny arch-rivals Lazio qualification to the inaugural Europa Conference League.
The top six may need to beware of Sassuolo, Hellas Verona and Sampdoria, however. Sassuolo have a 0.3 per cent likelihood of finishing inside the top four, while Verona (0.6 per cent) and Sampdoria (0.3 per cent) also have an outside chance of stealing European qualification, though our predictor suggests Lazio will finish 12 points clear of Sassuolo in seventh.
GENOA AND TORINO ESCAPE DROP
At the turn of the year Torino were rock bottom with one win from their opening 14 games and Genoa were in the relegation zone with them.
However, Torino and Genoa have both moved out of the bottom three by claiming six points and eight points respectively over their past five games.
The two sides are predicted to maintain strong enough form to stay out of the drop zone, with Crotone (20th), Parma (19th) and Cagliari (18th) projected to suffer relegation to Serie B.
It is by no means a guarantee, though. Genoa are only 0.2 per cent more likely to come 17th than they are to suffer relegation by finishing 18th, while Torino's differential between 15th – where they are predicted to place – and third-bottom is 2.7 per cent.
Man City title hopes rocked by Shaw injury
Manchester City's title hopes took a blow with the announcement that Khadija Shaw has been ruled out for the remainder of the season with a foot injury.
Shaw currently sits top of the Women’s Super League golden boot race with 21 goals in 18 games this season, a total which puts her well ahead of closest rival Lauren James, who is eight behind.
But she picked up her injury during Man City's 5-0 WSL victory over West Ham last weekend, a match in which she had scored twice in the first half, and will now miss the crucial final weeks of the top-flight campaign.
City have been reliant on the Jamaican's goals this season and will miss her in what is likely to be one of the most exciting run-ins in WSL history.
Chelsea sit three points behind City, however they have a game in hand and goal difference could end up being the determining factor if both teams are able to win all their remaining games.
The Citizens’ manager Gareth Taylor confirmed the Shaw blow in his pre match press conference ahead of Sunday’s clash with Bristol City, saying: “We have an issue with Bunny, she’s sustained a foot injury which will keep her out of the game for certain and potentially longer.
“It’s such a difficult one for Bunny because she’s had an incredible season.
“We had a feeling it might be an issue when she came off the pitch [against West Ham] even though it was non-contact.
“She’ll be well looked after by the medical team.”
City will have to think about who can fill the shoes of their star striker, but Taylor was confident about his team’s options despite the injury to Shaw.
"Bunny is our main number nine, but Mary [Fowler] has played there, Lauren [Hemp] has played there. Chloe [Kelly] is capable of playing there, Jess [Park] can do a really good job there," he said.
"Of course, we all understand what Bunny brings, she is such a box player, she gives us a different way of playing. Now, we will have a different kind of number nine."
City did, however, have some good news to share as they have tied down Lioness Lauren Hemp on new three-year contract extension keeping her at the Joie Stadium until 2027.
Hemp has won four trophies, while scoring 65 goals in 157 appearances, and has been a key player in the evolution of Taylor’s side.
Man City have secured the winger, who was out of contract at the end of the season and has attracted the attention of some of Europe's elite clubs such as Barcelona.
This term she has proved as productive as ever for City, scoring nine goals and adding six assists. She will also be key in the coming matches after the news of Shaw's injury misery.
"I feel at home here in Manchester," Hemp said after signing the deal.
"With the squad we have here, we are always learning and it’s so special to be involved at a club where we’re capable of achieving anything.
"I’m so passionate about this club and there’s no place I’d rather be. I’m very excited to keep this journey going for the next few years."
Edwards urges Luton Town to ignore scrutiny on relegation battle
Rob Edwards is keen for Luton Town to ignore the scrutiny surrounding them in the relegation battle as they prepare for another big game against Wolves.
The Hatters sit one point from safety in the relegation zone after back-to-back 5-1 defeats against Manchester City and Brentford.
While Nottingham Forest also lost last weekend, being beaten 2-0 by Everton, Burnley beat Sheffield United to move them two points behind Luton.
Asked how he is handling the pressure of the relegation battle with only four games left, Edwards said: “The stakes are high already, we all know what it means and it's really important to everyone that's in this at the moment, a number of clubs that are still fighting to try and avoid it and be in the league next season, it's so important.
“Everyone wants to try and stoke the fire I think. We've got a title race on at one end and obviously, there's a relegation battle we're involved in. It's exciting, it's good that we're in the fight, and we've got a chance to get out of it, but really, all I am concerned about right now is our performance tomorrow.”
Glasner challenges Crystal Palace to extend winning run
Oliver Glasner is hopeful that Crystal Palace can maintain their recent winning run when they travel to Fulham on Saturday.
After a run of five games without a victory, the Eagles have won each of their last three games, beating Liverpool, West Ham and Newcastle United.
Their 2-0 win over the Magpies on Wednesday also secured their Premier League safety for another season.
Glasner has given credit to his team’s attitude in turning around their recent run of form but does not want them to slow down despite reaching their goal.
He said: “The players give us confidence because they are listening. Every day we were sitting here and having a meeting and showing them videos and nobody was sleeping, so that gives us good feedback!
"Now we have 39 points and I think it shouldn't be our target to say ‘39 points, oh well done, staying in the Premier League’ because then I would say 'come on guys, go wherever you want and take vacations' – but no.
"We want to improve, we want to win games, and we have the next chance tomorrow at Fulham."
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