Inter beat Juventus. Juventus beat Milan. Milan beat Inter. For once it has been tough to predict the title race in Serie A.
Winning the Scudetto was not enough for Maurizio Sarri to keep his job at Juve last season, meaning Andrea Pirlo is under significant pressure as the Bianconeri chase a 10th straight league crown.
However, they have struggled to convince under the former midfield metronome and sit seven points adrift of leaders Milan in fourth, although they hold a game in hand.
There has seemingly never been a better chance for Inter, who are two points off top in second, and Milan to end Scudetto droughts that date back to 2009-10 and 2010-11 respectively.
Fans and pundits will continue to have their say on who will sit top come the end of the season, and the Stats Perform AI team have also crunched the numbers to predict the champions for the 2020-21 campaign.
With the majority of the 20 teams having reached the halfway stage of the league campaign, they have simulated how the rest of the season may play out.
The data model estimates the probability of each match outcome – either a win, draw or loss – based on each team's attacking and defensive quality.
Those ratings are allocated based on four years' worth of comprehensive historic data points and results, with more weighting given to recent matches to account for improvements or declines in form and performance trends.
The AI simulation takes into account the quality of the opposition that a team scores or concedes goals against and rewards them accordingly.
All that data is used to simulate upcoming matches using goal predictions from the Poisson distribution – a detailed mathematical model – with the two teams' attacking and defending ratings used as inputs.
The outcome of the season is then simulated on 10,000 different occasions in order to generate the most accurate possible percentage chance of each team finishing in their ultimate league position.
Without further ado, let's have a good look at the results of the simulation with the predicted final league table.
INTER END JUVE'S REIGN
Although they sit second at the halfway stage, our model predicts Inter will end Juve's dominance of Serie A.
Inter have a 35.7 per cent chance of topping the table for the first time since their treble-winning campaign of 2009-10 and it is projected they will do so by a two-point advantage.
Not only do Milan surrender top spot to the Nerazzurri, they slip behind Juve into third with the top three separated by just three points. It would still represent their best finish since 2012-13.
Juve's chance of retaining the title is deemed to be 23.1 per cent, marginally better than Milan's 21.6 per cent.
ATALANTA RETURN TO CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
Gian Piero Gasperini steered Atalanta to Champions League qualification for the first time in their history in 2018-19 and made it back-to-back top-three finishes last season.
They are predicted to return to Europe's premier club competition by finishing fourth, edging out Napoli – they even have a 6.8 per cent chance of pulling off an unlikely title win.
Gennaro Gattuso's side have a 17 per cent probability of snatching the final Champions League qualification berth, with Atalanta's prospects narrowly superior at 17.4 per cent.
Roma are predicted to fall from their current position of third down to sixth but that is still good enough for them to deny arch-rivals Lazio qualification to the inaugural Europa Conference League.
The top six may need to beware of Sassuolo, Hellas Verona and Sampdoria, however. Sassuolo have a 0.3 per cent likelihood of finishing inside the top four, while Verona (0.6 per cent) and Sampdoria (0.3 per cent) also have an outside chance of stealing European qualification, though our predictor suggests Lazio will finish 12 points clear of Sassuolo in seventh.
GENOA AND TORINO ESCAPE DROP
At the turn of the year Torino were rock bottom with one win from their opening 14 games and Genoa were in the relegation zone with them.
However, Torino and Genoa have both moved out of the bottom three by claiming six points and eight points respectively over their past five games.
The two sides are predicted to maintain strong enough form to stay out of the drop zone, with Crotone (20th), Parma (19th) and Cagliari (18th) projected to suffer relegation to Serie B.
It is by no means a guarantee, though. Genoa are only 0.2 per cent more likely to come 17th than they are to suffer relegation by finishing 18th, while Torino's differential between 15th – where they are predicted to place – and third-bottom is 2.7 per cent.
Conte: Napoli need to focus on improvement, not Serie A lead
Napoli should pay little attention to their place at the top of Serie A, so says Antonio Conte, who has demanded improvement from his team.
Romelu Lukaku's second-half goal handed Napoli a 1-0 win over Roma on Sunday.
That victory sent Napoli back to the summit of Serie A, with Conte's side one point ahead of Atalanta, Inter, Fiorentina and Lazio, while Juventus are only four points back in a six-team title race.
Napoli needed to get back to winning ways after a draw against Inter and a 3-0 loss to Atalanta before the international break, and Conte insists his team must sharpen up.
"Before the match, I told the lads not to look at the table, but to focus on ourselves and improving what we are working on," Conte told Sky Sport Italia.
"I maintain that now too because we need to take a series of steps to raise the level.
"I was satisfied with the performance for a good 65 minutes today, we could’ve taken more of our chances and were up against a strong Roma who have great players.
"Roma were also making their debut under a new coach and therefore were very eager to prove themselves, but we still should've dealt with the final 15-20 minutes better, as we sat too deep and made it complicated for ourselves."
Roma, playing under new boss Claudio Ranieri, came close to equalising when Artem Dovbyk hit the woodwork with a header.
Ranieri came out of retirement to take charge of Roma following Ivan Juric's dismissal earlier in November, though the visitors had just six shots and accumulated only 0.6 expected goals (xG) at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
"If we look back, we have some problems and that is why I was called. We were up against a team that is fighting to win the Scudetto," Ranieri told Sky Sport Italia.
"Having said all of that, I am happy with the performance from my players. We made some mistakes that we will talk about during the week, but the hunger, the determination to get back on track was there.
"We have a lot of work to do, but I feel positive.
"We know there is work to be done, we have to focus on reacting rather than sitting there feeling sorry for ourselves.
"The [players] need the right character to help themselves and then others. Naturally, when I arrived, the team was a little closed up, but I think we started to open up a bit by the second half."
Keane doubts Man Utd will crack top four under Amorim this season
Roy Keane does not believe Manchester United will get back into the Premier League's top four under Ruben Amorim this season due to a "real lack of quality".
The Red Devils legend was speaking after United started life under the Portuguese with a 1-1 draw at Ipswich Town, as Omari Hutchinson cancelled out Marcus Rashford's second-minute opener.
Keane acknowledged Amorim has to be given time to turn things around at Old Trafford, but does not see United cracking the top four this season.
"You have to give the man a chance," Keane told Sky Sports. "But the threat going forward, it's a huge problem for Man Utd. It's not good enough.
"Do I believe they have the quality to get them back to top four? Absolutely not. The evidence is not there. It's the same old stuff. Predictable and a real lack of quality."
United created 0.9 xG compared to Ipswich's 1.75 and had fewer shots on target (four) compared to Ipswich (six) at Portman Road.
They did have more touches in the opposition box (16 to 11) but had fewer final-third entries (48 to 61) and big chances created (two to three).
Ipswich were extremely resilient opponents after their early setback, and Tractor Boys boss Kieran McKenna praised his side, particularly Hutchinson after he grabbed his first Premier League goal.
"I thought he (Hutchinson) was a big threat first half, naturally more a winger, but most teams are going to press us high and in the spaces in the middle of the pitch having a dribbler in the middle of the pitch who's elusive and hard to pick up can be a big threat," he told Sky Sports.
"I think it's his first goal in the Premier League he'll be happy to have that of his back and he's improving."
"The first half, it's a blow to concede the early goal but I thought as the half went on we grew in the ascendancy, and the intensity of pressing and work on the ball.
"I thought we were the dominant team in the first half and deserved to be going in at least level. Second half in fairness, Man Utd had more control. It was difficult, we had to defend with real discipline on shape."
Leganes 0-3 Real Madrid: Mbappe and Bellingham score as Blancos close on Barcelona
Kylian Mbappe and Jude Bellingham were both on target as Real Madrid moved to within four points of LaLiga leaders Barcelona with a 3-0 win at Leganes.
Federico Valverde also scored for Carlo Ancelotti's side, who still have a game in hand on leaders Barca, who were pegged back in a 2-2 draw with Celta Vigo on Saturday.
Mbappe ended a goal drought of over 400 minutes after being teed up by Vinicius Junior shortly before half-time, moments after Leganes had surrendered possession near the edge of their own area.
Madrid dominated possession throughout the second half and doubled their advantage in the 66th minute, Valverde drilling a low effort home from a free-kick won by Bellingham.
Bellingham later got in on the act with a header on the rebound after substitute Brahim Diaz rattled the crossbar, as Madrid cruised to back-to-back league wins.
Data Debrief: Dirty work pays off for Madrid
Mbappe's opener, scored at a vital time shortly before the interval, set Madrid on their way to victory on Sunday.
Eduardo Camavinga and Bellingham both pressed high to help the visitors recover possession in the build-up, and Madrid have now scored five goals resulting from high turnovers in LaLiga this season – the most of any team across Europe's top five leagues.
This was the first time Ancelotti had faced Leganes in LaLiga, and he has now beaten all 28 different opponents he has come up against in the competition.
SportsMax is the Caribbean sports channel of choice, committed to providing sporting content of the highest quality to the Caribbean, delivered by a team of highly innovative, passionate and qualified professionals.
(876) 619-7629
digitalmedia@sportsmax.tv
