EPL

Premier League MD8: Lucky winners and unlucky losers

By Sports Desk October 21, 2024

Premier League football returned after the international break with a bang, with 28 goals scored, five players sent off and two injury-time winners over the weekend.

The action kicked off with a London derby as Tottenham swept aside West Ham, with Leicester City producing a remarkable comeback to beat Southampton before Aston Villa kept pace with the top four with a 3-1 win over Fulham.

Manchester United came from a goal down to beat Brentford, as Everton extended their unbeaten run at the expense of Ipswich Town, while Arsenal were dealt their first defeat of the season away to Bournemouth after William Saliba's dismissal. 

Liverpool remained at the Premier League summit after beating Chelsea in an entertaining affair at Anfield, but Manchester City are hot on their heels, albeit they needed a late John Stones header to edge past Wolves. 

So, after all that, who were the unlucky, and lucky, teams based on the underlying metrics?

Unlucky losers: Newcastle United

Newcastle's poor run of form continued in the Premier League as Danny Welbeck's strike helped Brighton to a 1-0 triumph at St. James' Park. 

However, the Magpies will feel they should have taken at least a point for their efforts, ending the contest with an expected goals (xG) total of 2.02, a number only bettered by Southampton (2.15) and Leicester City (3.21) across the weekend's fixtures. 

Fifteen of Newcastle's attempts also came from inside the box compared to Brighton's eight, while Eddie Howe's side managed 45 touches in the opposition box, with only Man City (85) registering more on matchday eight.

Newcastle managed 21 shots, though only six were on target, with Brighton ultimately being more clinical. The Seagulls accumulated an xG total of 1.12 from their 10 attempts, but also had Bart Verbruggen to thank, with the Dutchman making six saves on the day. 

Lucky winners: Liverpool

Arne Slot continued his excellent start to life as Liverpool head coach with a 2-1 victory over Chelsea, though this was arguably his toughest assignment to date. 

While the Reds ended the contest with an xG total of 1.94 compared to Chelsea's 0.99, it was Enzo Maresca's side that posed the bigger questions at Anfield, registering 12 shots, though only two were on Caoimhin Kelleher's goal. 

Jadon Sancho also felt he should have been awarded a penalty for a tangle of legs with Trent Alexander-Arnold in the first half, with Nicolas Jackson also striking the woodwork before the interval. 

The Blues also managed more shots in the box (nine) compared to Liverpool's seven, as well as registering more touches in the opposition box (26 to Liverpool's 17) and 56 final third entries to the Reds' 54. 

Indeed, Liverpool's non-penalty xG was 1.15, so a 1-1 draw would probably have been a fair result.

Unlucky losers: Fulham 

After pushing Man City all the way before the international break, Fulham returned with another good performance, but fell short once again, this time against Aston Villa.

Morgan Rogers quickly cancelled out Raul Jiminez's opener, though Andreas Pereira fluffed his lines from the penalty spot after a brilliant save from Emiliano Martinez. 

Fulham accumulated an xG total of 1.78 compared to Villa's 1.68, but Ollie Watkins and Issa Diop's unfortunate own-goal sealed the triumph for Unai Emery's side, who are back in Champions League action in midweek. 

Marco Silva's team were left to rue another encounter with squandered opportunities, failing to take any of the four big chances they created, while only four of their 10 attempts at Craven Cottage were on target compared to Villa's five from 14 shots.  

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    Former champions Kingston College produced a five-star performance to open the Inter-secondary Schools Sports Association (ISSA)/Digicel Manning Cup quarterfinal round in commanding fashion as they blanked Tivoli High 5-0, while reigning champions Mona High and Jamaica College played out a 1-1 stalemate in the Group A double-header at Stadium East on Friday.

    A brace from Damaine Smith (3rd and 19th) and one each from Matrim Martin (32nd), Kamaul Patterson (45+3) and Deshawn Byfield (51st) got the job done for Kingston College in the lopsided feature contest.

    Meanwhile in the curtain-raiser, Sean Leighton’s 35th-minute strike for Mona High was cancelled out by Jamaica College’s captain Dyllan John, who converted a 65th-minute penalty to secure his team a share of the spoils.

    With the result, Kingston College took command of the group on three points, while Jamaica College and Mona trail with a point each. Tivoli will have to play catch up from the foot of the four-team standing.

    Kingston College were always favoured to take three points off Tivoli High, and they did so with consummate ease in what was a showcase of their offensive prowess and defensive strength as they overwhelmed the opponents from start to finish.

    The famed purples wasted little time to break the deadlock as Smith got on the end of a weighted pass and easily fired past Daniel Bailey in goal for Tivoli High.

    Their precise passing and tactical awareness kept Tivoli on the back foot, and it was another of those passes from the back that sent Smith on his way to complete his brace with another simple finish.

    That brace set the tone for what would be a long and arduous game for Tivoli High, who soon found themselves 3-0 down when Shareef Ricketts’ weighted corner kick picked out Martin at the far post and the Guyanese made no mistakes from goalmouth.

    Struggling to find any answer to the waves of attacks that Kingston College unleashed, the West Kingston team were left visibly demoralized as another weighted freekick from Ricketts eluded defenders and Patterson capitalised at the far post to make it 4-0 at the break.

    The second half saw no reprieve for Tivoli High, as Kingston College continued to drive forward with confidence and added to their tally six minutes in when Byfield fired home after Smith’s effort burst through the hands of the hapless Bailey.

    Tivoli High tried to play their game when Kingston College eased up a bit, but their offensive efforts were always easily thwarted by the North Street-based team’s backline long before they posed any real threat.

    Kingston College’s Head coach, Vassell Reynolds, praised his players for their discipline and focus.

    “We really wanted to get three points today because that put us in good stead to push on for the remainder of this round, and I thought the boys responded well and did pretty well. So I am pretty satisfied with our conversion rate and the overall performance,” Vassell said in a post-game interview.

    Tivoli’s assistant coach, Lance DaCosta, believes a lapse in concentration resulted in the loss but backed his team to bounce back against Mona and Jamaica College.

    “I think we struggled defensively; we made too many errors, and they cost us. At this stage we should be more mature and more focused, but we just have to motivate them and try to win our next two games to advance,” he said.

    Earlier in what was one of the season’s most anticipated clashes, Mona forced the initiative and camped out in Jamaica College’s quarters in the early exchanges. They took a few cracks at target, which tested Taywane Lynch, but the Jamaica College custodian proved equal to the task on each occasion.

    Jamaica College eventually found their footing in attack and thought they had the go-ahead goal in the 28th when Giovanni Taylor fired home from close range, but it was controversially called back for an offside.

    Mona eventually grabbed the ascendancy when Leighton finished his fifth goal of the season with aplomb after Robino Gordon’s effort was saved to make it 1-0 at the break.

    However, Jamaica College pulled level five minutes past the hour mark when John fired home from the 12-yard spot after being awarded a controversial penalty.

    Friday’s results

    Mona 1, Jamaica College 1

    Kingston College 5, Tivoli High 0

    St Catherine 3, Campion College 0

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    Charlotte forced a third match in their best-of-three series against Orlando, winning 3-1 on penalties after a 0-0 draw on Thursday.

    However, they lost the first game 2-0 when they travelled to Inter & Co Stadium and have not had much luck on the road against the Lions, failing to win there since March 2023.

    Smith was proud of how his side took the game to Orlando on home soil and is urging his players for more of the same when they return to Florida.

    "There's still a job to be done. We think we can go to Orlando and put in a performance that will put us through to the Conference semi-finals," Smith said.

    "We have to take our intensity in. That's what gave us that performance, our aggressiveness.

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    They only managed one shot on target in that match and then netted just one of the four penalties that they took, but Oscar Pareja is confident they are in a strong position to go through.

    "We're good. We're aiming for the same intensity, the same intentions, the same plans and the same positive essence that we have.

    "When things get tight you've got to use the advantage, and we have that by being at home. We're going to be faithful to the tactics that have got us to this point.

    "We have to be confident and be ourselves. Have full belief in what to do. We have a team that plays very well and one that has earned this ride, so we plan to use our advantages."

    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    Orlando City – Duncan McGuire

    Orlando attempted just three shots in their game 2 draw and penalty shoot-out defeat to Charlotte, their fewest in any MLS match this season, while hitting just one on target.

    Duncan McGuire was responsible for one of those, generating 0.25 expected goals with that effort. The substitute also had the most touches in the box (three) of any Orlando player.

    Charlotte FC – Kristijan Kahlina

    Charlotte have won both of their penalty shootouts, beating Orlando City 4-1 on Friday after recording a 3-1 shootout win in the 2023 Leagues Cup group stage.

    Charlotte have converted all seven of their penalties in shootouts while Kristijan Kahlina allowed goals on just two of the seven spot-kicks he faced.

    MATCH PREDICTION: ORLANDO CITY WIN

    Orlando have won eight of their last 10 home matches against MLS opposition in all competitions (D1 L1), including a 2-0 victory over Charlotte in Game 1 on October 27. The Lions scored multiple goals in all eight wins over that time.

    While Charlotte stayed alive with a penalty shoot-out win after a scoreless draw against Orlando in Game 2 on Saturday, the Lions have now kept clean sheets in three straight matches against them after not doing so in any of the first six meetings in all competitions.

    Charlotte's only defeat in their last seven matches in all competitions was their Game 1 loss at Orlando on October 27. In fact, Charlotte’s last loss prior to this run of seven games (W4 D2 L1) also came in Orlando (on September 18), with the omens not looking good going into their final match.

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Orlando City – 53.7%

    Draw – 23.7%

    Charlotte FC – 22.5%

  • Napoli not going to San Siro to 'wave the white flag', says Conte Napoli not going to San Siro to 'wave the white flag', says Conte

    Antonio Conte has no intention of holding anything back when he returns to San Siro, as the top two face off in Serie A on Sunday.

    The Italian revived Inter and helped them break Juventus's nine-year stranglehold on the Scudetto, stopping their run in the 2020-21 season to win the title for the first time since their treble-winning campaign in 2009-10.

    Now at Napoli, a club that is looking to return to the heights of their 2022-23 title win, Conte's side sit top of Serie A with 25 points after 11 games - a point above Inter ahead of their upcoming clash.

    "It's definitely nice to return to where I worked and won. Yes, two happy years," Conte told reporters.

    "It was a wonderful experience that I carry within me, like all the past ones that I lived to the fullest."

    Napoli's winning run in Serie A came to a grinding halt against Atalanta last weekend when Conte's side were beaten 3-0, and they have a poor recent record against Inter, having won just one of their last 10 Serie A matches against them.

    Napoli are looking to avoid suffering two consecutive top-flight losses for the first time since last December, and Conte says he is in no mood to drop three points again.

    "The three points is always important, it is inevitable that we face a team that today, for everything they have shown, is the strongest team," Conte added.

    "We are not going to San Siro to wave the white flag before starting, but convinced to play our cards. Then we will see what happens. We are preparing in a major way, as we always do.

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