EPL

Premier League MD8: Lucky winners and unlucky losers

By Sports Desk October 21, 2024

Premier League football returned after the international break with a bang, with 28 goals scored, five players sent off and two injury-time winners over the weekend.

The action kicked off with a London derby as Tottenham swept aside West Ham, with Leicester City producing a remarkable comeback to beat Southampton before Aston Villa kept pace with the top four with a 3-1 win over Fulham.

Manchester United came from a goal down to beat Brentford, as Everton extended their unbeaten run at the expense of Ipswich Town, while Arsenal were dealt their first defeat of the season away to Bournemouth after William Saliba's dismissal. 

Liverpool remained at the Premier League summit after beating Chelsea in an entertaining affair at Anfield, but Manchester City are hot on their heels, albeit they needed a late John Stones header to edge past Wolves. 

So, after all that, who were the unlucky, and lucky, teams based on the underlying metrics?

Unlucky losers: Newcastle United

Newcastle's poor run of form continued in the Premier League as Danny Welbeck's strike helped Brighton to a 1-0 triumph at St. James' Park. 

However, the Magpies will feel they should have taken at least a point for their efforts, ending the contest with an expected goals (xG) total of 2.02, a number only bettered by Southampton (2.15) and Leicester City (3.21) across the weekend's fixtures. 

Fifteen of Newcastle's attempts also came from inside the box compared to Brighton's eight, while Eddie Howe's side managed 45 touches in the opposition box, with only Man City (85) registering more on matchday eight.

Newcastle managed 21 shots, though only six were on target, with Brighton ultimately being more clinical. The Seagulls accumulated an xG total of 1.12 from their 10 attempts, but also had Bart Verbruggen to thank, with the Dutchman making six saves on the day. 

Lucky winners: Liverpool

Arne Slot continued his excellent start to life as Liverpool head coach with a 2-1 victory over Chelsea, though this was arguably his toughest assignment to date. 

While the Reds ended the contest with an xG total of 1.94 compared to Chelsea's 0.99, it was Enzo Maresca's side that posed the bigger questions at Anfield, registering 12 shots, though only two were on Caoimhin Kelleher's goal. 

Jadon Sancho also felt he should have been awarded a penalty for a tangle of legs with Trent Alexander-Arnold in the first half, with Nicolas Jackson also striking the woodwork before the interval. 

The Blues also managed more shots in the box (nine) compared to Liverpool's seven, as well as registering more touches in the opposition box (26 to Liverpool's 17) and 56 final third entries to the Reds' 54. 

Indeed, Liverpool's non-penalty xG was 1.15, so a 1-1 draw would probably have been a fair result.

Unlucky losers: Fulham 

After pushing Man City all the way before the international break, Fulham returned with another good performance, but fell short once again, this time against Aston Villa.

Morgan Rogers quickly cancelled out Raul Jiminez's opener, though Andreas Pereira fluffed his lines from the penalty spot after a brilliant save from Emiliano Martinez. 

Fulham accumulated an xG total of 1.78 compared to Villa's 1.68, but Ollie Watkins and Issa Diop's unfortunate own-goal sealed the triumph for Unai Emery's side, who are back in Champions League action in midweek. 

Marco Silva's team were left to rue another encounter with squandered opportunities, failing to take any of the four big chances they created, while only four of their 10 attempts at Craven Cottage were on target compared to Villa's five from 14 shots.  

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    Emery's side welcome Bologna to Villa Park on Tuesday, aiming to maintain their perfect record in the competition so far. 

    They also come into the encounter unbeaten in nine games in all competitions after defeating Fulham 3-1 in the Premier League, a result that propelled them into the top four. 

    Emery is looking to pick up his 25th Champions League win, and would become the fifth Spanish manager to reach that total after Pep Guardiola, Rafael Benítez, Vicente del Bosque and Luis Enrique.

    But aside from personal accolades, Emery has his eyes set on helping the Villans become regular contenders for silverware during his time at the helm. 

    "I don't want to waste my time here, that is my message," said Emery. "We want to achieve the objectives and one of them is to play in the Champions League.

    "It is not about playing there only because of some circumstances - I want us to stay there for a long time.

    "You have to be resilient. We want to be strong in the idea in our mind and create a strong mentality to always break barriers."

    Should Villa beat the Serie A side, they will also equal their longest streak of victories in the European Cup or Champions League, last earning three consecutive wins between September and October 1981. 

    Emery will celebrate his second anniversary as Villa manager on Thursday but is only looking at how he can help the club continue to grow after their meteoric rise under his stewardship in the last 24 months.

    "The most important thing is for us how we are increasing our demands and with those getting the objectives we are facing each year," he outlined.

    "Two years ago we avoided a risk of relegation and even had time to get a position in the Conference League, which was amazing in the first seven months we had here.

    "Last year we continued our process, and we increased a lot our demands, getting the Champions League.

    "The challenge is to get better every day, and now how can we keep the same level we have now for a long time? That’s the most difficult thing.

    "When you achieve an objective at a high level, how can you be demanding and successful in keeping it? That’s the idea I have now. The club is in the same way.

    "The players are with the same message I am giving you here. The words I use repeatedly since I arrived here to now is I don’t want to waste my time here.

    "That’s the message for everyone. I don’t want you to waste your time here. We are professionals, and we can get our best objectives individually and collectively.

    "We want to keep the level we have now, which is the Champions League, and add something more like being a contender for a trophy."

    Tuesday's fixture against Bologna will be the first time the two sides faced each other in any competition, though Villa have struggled against sides from Italy. 

    They have lost four of their six major European games against Italian sides, with the two wins both coming at home against Inter in 1990 and 1994, in the UEFA Cup.

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    Since his arrival from Paris Saint-Germain, Mbappe has eight goals in 12 appearances in all competitions, six of which have come in LaLiga this term. 

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    Bellingham netted 23 goals and added 13 assists in all competitions during his debut season with Los Blancos, winning two trophies along the way.

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    "We are satisfied with Bellingham's work. He works hard on the field, competes, fights and makes sacrifices," Ancelotti said.

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    "We’ve always managed to score and will continue to because we have a lot of talent up front. Bellingham's role is more important than the goals he scored last year."

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