The second international break of the campaign is upon us, and in the Premier League, that usually means one thing.
Sacking season may be drawing closer. Seven games into 2024-25, some managers might already have reason to worry.
While Everton's Sean Dyche and Leicester City's Steve Cooper are among those to have eased the pressure with crucial victories in recent weeks, and Oliver Glasner will likely get more time at Crystal Palace, three other bosses are under scrutiny already.
Manchester United's worst start to any Premier League season after seven games has seen Erik ten Hag come in for heavy criticism, while Wolves and Southampton are yet to record a single victory, meaning Gary O'Neil and Russell Martin could soon come under fire.
But what does the data say about the shortcomings of those sides, and what might lie ahead for each of them? Let's find out.
Erik ten Hag (Man Utd)
A goalless draw at Aston Villa on Sunday may have stopped the rot for United, but the Red Devils enter the October international break mired in 14th, with just eight points.
They last won fewer points through seven matches of any season in 1989-90, when Alex Ferguson's men finished 13th in the old First Division.
Ten Hag admitted after Sunday's game that United's start was not good enough, though he did hail their organisation and put their struggles down to shortcomings in the final third.
The data certainly supports the idea their main issues are in attack, though the idea Ten Hag has fixed things at the back is seemingly wide of the mark.
Last season, United were continually criticised for giving up opportunities, with only Luton Town (79.77), Sheffield United (77.49), West Ham (72.15) and Burnley (71.92) permitting a higher expected goals against (xGA) figure than their 70.08. Three of those teams were, of course, relegated.
Only six teams have given up better chances than United this term, though a huge 4.59 of their total 11.54 xGA was conceded in one game – the 3-0 home defeat to Spurs on matchday six. With eight goals conceded, Ten Hag's men may have been fortunate to come up against some wasteful opponents.
At the other end, United have netted just five times – only in 1972-73 (four) have they scored fewer through their first seven matches of a top-flight season.
Their current run of three league games without a goal, meanwhile, has equalled their worst streak in the competition under Ten Hag (runs of three in both December 2023 and April 2023).
United's five goals have come from 11.11 xG, making them the league's highest underperformers, scoring 6.11 goals fewer than expected given their quality of chances created. Their shot conversion rate of 5.62%, meanwhile, is worse than all but Southampton (5.26%) and Palace (5.43%), who are both winless.
While Ten Hag's transitional style of play has been blamed for United's defensive issues, what can he do to improve their fortunes in attack?
To an extent, he has been let down by individuals underperforming. Captain Bruno Fernandes, whose 54 Premier League goals since arriving in January 2020 are more than any other Red Devils team-mate, has failed to score from chances worth 1.9 xG this term – the highest figure accumulated by any player yet to net in the Premier League.
Alejandro Garnacho (one goal from 2.38 xG) and Joshua Zirkzee (one goal from 2.44 xG) have also underperformed, though it should be acknowledged that an injury to Rasmus Hojlund – who scored 16 times in all competitions last season – has not helped.
Ultimately, though, Ten Hag can have few complaints about United's predicament. According to Opta's expected points model, the Red Devils could only expect to be 10th in the table, just 2.4 points better off than they are in reality.
If United stick with the Dutchman, he may need a run of results immediately after the international break, ahead of a festive fixture list featuring trips to Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool.
Brentford and West Ham are their next two league opponents, before Chelsea visit Old Trafford on November 3. A Europa League clash with Fenerbahce – and former United boss Jose Mourinho – will bring more intrigue on October 24.
The Opta supercomputer shows little faith in Ten Hag's ability to turn things around. United were assigned an 18.8% chance of a top-four finish, which has now dropped to just 2.5%.
Russell Martin (Southampton)
Promoted as play-off victors following their victory over Leeds United at Wembley in May, Southampton were expected by many to struggle on their return to the top flight.
But a return of just one point from seven matches will still be viewed as disappointing, particularly given they have already welcomed the likes of Ipswich Town and Nottingham Forest to St Mary's.
Across this season and the 2022-23 campaign, Saints are now winless in 20 Premier League matches, equalling their longest such streak in the top flight (also 20 between August and December 1969).
Supporters have, quite simply, grown weary of losing matches. And while Martin's progressive, possession-based style might be easy on the eye, results are king when battling to remain in the Premier League, and patience is a virtue.
The chief criticism that Vincent Kompany received during Burnley's relegation campaign in 2023-24 was one of naivety, and it has not taken long for Martin's Saints to get similar treatment.
Their average possession share of 57.42% is enough to rank them fifth in the league, behind only Manchester City (63.47%), Tottenham (62.44%), Liverpool (60.25%) and Brighton (58.5%).
However, it has too often been a case of possession without punch, with Southampton's four goals scored being the fewest in the division. Their xG underperformance of -4.34, meanwhile, is the second-worst in the league, behind United's.
Missing chances has not been Southampton's only issue, with their 165 touches in the opposition box being the sixth-fewest in the league, despite their 5,117 total touches being the fourth-most.
Another major criticism of Martin's side, who look to build from the back at every opportunity, relates to their tendency to put themselves in trouble. They have made the most errors leading to goals (six) and shots (10) in the league this season.
Southampton's opponents, meanwhile, have forced turnovers through pressures in the final third on 81 occasions. Only Brentford, Chelsea (both 91) and United (82) have given up more.
The chances of Martin ditching his masterplan appear slim, but greater pragmatism and flexibility may be required if Southampton are to give themselves a chance of survival.
Martin's achievement in getting Southampton back to the Premier League – and the manner in which he did it – will likely mean he gets more time. But their next game, at home to fellow promoted side Leicester on October 19, is a big one, while they also face fellow strugglers Everton and Wolves before mid-November.
In the Opta supercomputer's season predictions, Southampton are now relegated in a huge 90.8% of scenarios, finishing bottom in 59.1%. No other team has more than a 14.8% chance of propping up the table.
Gary O'Neil (Wolves)
Perhaps one of the biggest surprises of the season to date is Wolves' position at the foot of the pile, after they threatened a European push in O'Neil's first campaign at the helm.
An incredibly difficult fixture list has played its part, with Wolves facing five of last season's top seven – Arsenal, Chelsea, Newcastle United, Aston Villa and Liverpool – in the first seven matchweeks, and Manchester City are their next assignment after the hiatus.
However, Wolves are a side that has developed a habit of losing games, only managing one victory – against since-relegated Luton – in 17 league games since March 9 (three draws, 13 defeats).
Their tally of 21 goals conceded, meanwhile, is six more than any other side in the division (Southampton are next with 15).
The decision to sell captain Max Kilman to West Ham without investing any of the £40million proceeds on a new centre-back looked ill-advised in pre-season, and downright neglectful when Colombia international Yerson Mosquera suffered what is likely to be a season-ending knee injury in a 3-1 loss at Villa.
Wolves have arguably been unfortunate at times, with their xGA figure of 14 being lower than those of Ipswich (15.7), Leicester (14.91) and Southampton (14.05). August's 6-2 defeat to Chelsea was a particularly freakish result, with Wolves winning the xG battle 1.96-1.68.
But a failure to do the simple things has repeatedly cost them. A series of poor goals conceded from set-pieces led to dead-ball coach Jack Wilson being sacked just a few months on from his arrival, and the pressure is now on O'Neil to plug the gaps.
A lack of defensive options could hinder him, though. Wolves have just three fit centre-backs in Craig Dawson, Santiago Bueno and Toti Gomes. The club chose to spend a reported £21million on midfielder Andre – a supremely talented but arguably unnecessary buy – rather than a new defensive lynchpin on transfer deadline day.
Fixtures against Man City and Brighton mean things could get worse before they get better, before a crucial run of eight games against Palace, Southampton, Fulham, Bournemouth, Everton, West Ham, Ipswich and Leicester.
Expect O'Neil's future to be decided by Christmas, one way or another. The Opta supercomputer now gives Wolves a 51.9% chance of being relegated, up from 20.9% in pre-season.
The good news for Wolves fans? The last time they started a top-flight campaign without a win in seven games, in 2003-04, they got up and running at the eighth attempt, beating Man City 1-0.
Hurzeler: Brighton need to 'work to get momentum' despite Man City win
Brighton and Hove Albion boss Fabian Hurzeler believes his players need to rebuild their momentum following a two-week break after their 2-1 victory over Manchester City.
The Seagulls came back from a goal down in dramatic fashion to inflict City's fourth successive defeat in all competitions last time out.
Though the international break came at a bad time for his in-form team, Hurzeler refused to criticise the schedule ahead of their trip to the Vitality Stadium.
"You always have to work to get momentum. It's always a new game and no matter if there's a break between games or not, the game starts from zero," he told a pre-match press conference.
"You have to go into the game and do the things you can influence to the maximum.
"You can't say 'we won against Manchester City and now the momentum will keep going', it's about fighting for momentum.
"It's a new game, a different challenge and a really big challenge because Bournemouth are one of the strongest teams at the moment."
Bournemouth have also beaten City recently, with the Cherries also triumphing over Arsenal and Southampton in their last three home matches.
"They can play very intense, they run a lot, they have individual quality, they are in good shape. For me at the moment, they're one of the best teams in the league," Hurzeler said of the Cherries.
Bournemouth manager Andoni Iraola, meanwhile, was keen to stress that his players need to keep their concentration against Brighton. The Cherries were beaten 3-2 away to Brentford last time out, despite having taken the lead twice.
“You never want to lose the last game before the break because at the end you remember the last feeling. We will remember this week, the actions here against Brentford," he said.
"We can prepare very well for the game against Brighton, that is going to be also very demanding.”
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Bournemouth – Evanilson
Evanilson has scored four goals for Bournemouth since joining the club in August. He is tied with Antoine Semenyo as the club's top scorer, although his goals have come in one fewer appearance.
The Brazilian forward has found the net in three successive matches and will become the first Bournemouth player since Callum Wilson in 2019 to score in four straight top-flight games should he do so on Saturday.
Brighton – Danny Welbeck
Danny Welbeck is Brighton's leading scorer so far this season, with six league goals – a total that includes three opening goals.
He has scored two away goals so far in the current campaign, coming on the opening day at Everton and the only goal of the game at Newcastle United last month.
MATCH PREDICTION: DRAW
Bournemouth come into this in 12th place in the Premier League on 15 points after 11 matches, having lost 3-2 to Brentford in their most recent game.
At home, though, they have taken 10 points from five matches (three wins, one draw, one loss) and come into this with three successive victories at the Vitality Stadium. They have never won four Premier League home games in a row.
Brighton have earned seven points from five away games (two wins, one draw and two losses) and, despite being six places above their hosts in the table, there are just four points between them.
While Bournemouth have won four of their five Premier League home games against Brighton, Fabian Hurzeler's side come into this in good form having won three of their last five (one draw, one loss) Premier League matches – as many victories as they managed across their previous 16 league games (six draws, seven defeats).
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Bournemouth – 41.2%
Draw – 25.1%
Brighton – 33.7%
McKenna fired up for 'biggest game in world football' against Man United
Kieran McKenna believes Ipswich Town's Premier League clash with Manchester United will be the "biggest game in world football" this weekend.
United are in action under new manager Ruben Amorim for the first time since the Portuguese officially replaced Arne Slot as head coach.
While plenty of focus is on the visitors at Portman Road, Ipswich are fired up after beating Tottenham 2-1 before the international break.
That was Ipswich's first league win of the season – and their first in the Premier League in 22 years – and now attention turns to facing United.
McKenna, who previously coached United, said at a fan event this week: "Sunday, what a game. It's one we're really, really looking forward to.
"Not for the personal connection, but as manager of Ipswich Town, to be on that stage, it's what we've worked so hard for.
"It's the biggest game in world football anywhere this weekend, the biggest game in the world in the biggest sport in the world and it's at Portman Road."
Ipswich's surprise win at Tottenham last time out moved them up to 17th, while United are 13th after beating Leicester City 3-0 in Ruud van Nistelrooy's final game in caretaker charge.
Amorim took his first training session on Monday, albeit with many first-team stars away on international duty, and the former Sporting CP boss believes his style of play will be clear to see from the off.
"I think you will see an idea," he told the club's website. "You could like it or not, I don't know, but you will see an idea.
"You will see a positioning. You will see something that we want to reach that kind of level. You will feel that.
"We have to know it's [only] two trainings before the first match. This is the best league in the world. But if I have to say something to you, [it's that] you will see an idea. This I can guarantee."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Ipswich Town - Liam Delap
Delap scored what proved to be Ipswich's winner against Tottenham and has now netted six of his side's 12 Premier League goals this term.
That makes the Manchester City academy product one of only three players to have scored at least half of his side's goals in the competition this season, along with Erling Haaland at City (55%) and Chris Wood at Nottingham Forest (53%).
Manchester United - Alejandro Garnacho
Garnacho was among the scorers against Leicester two weeks ago and has now been directly involved in 20 Premier League goals for United (13 goals and seven assists).
The Argentina international is one of only two non-British players to reach that figure for United before turning 21, along with Cristiano Ronaldo (25 goals).
MATCH PREDICTION: MANCHESTER UNITED WIN
Ipswich are seeking back-to-back Premier League wins for the first time since February 2022, with that run also beginning with a 2-1 victory against Tottenham.
The Tractor Boys are the only side in the competition without a home win this season. Only five newly promoted clubs have failed to win any of their first six home matches, all of whom went back down.
United have won 17 of their past 19 Premier League games against newly promoted opponents, meanwhile, including nine wins in a row in away fixtures.
The Red Devils were 1-0 winners on their most recent league trip to Portman Road in April 2022, but only once have they won successive league games away to Ipswich.
However, the Tractor Boys have lost four of their past five league matches against Man United, failing to score in each of those losses.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Ipswich Town - 22.2%
Draw - 23%
Manchester United - 54.8%
Amorim told Europa League qualification is 'mandatory' in first Man Utd season
Ruben Amorim must at least guide Manchester United back into the Europa League in his first season as the club's manager.
That is the view of ex-Manchester City defender Danny Mills, whose former side were beaten 4-1 by Amorim and Sporting CP in the Champions League earlier this month.
Amorim has been hired by Man Utd to replace Erik ten Hag after the Dutchman was sacked midway through his third season in charge at Old Trafford.
Having taken charge of his final games in Lisbon, a spell which included that famous continental win over Man City, Amorim started his work at United during the international break.
His first game at the helm comes this Sunday away at Ipswich Town and while Mills acknowledges the task of rebuilding United's team is a long-term project, he feels there is still a certain level of results Amorim needs to hit in the 2024-25 season.
"Amorim needs to figure out which players fit his mould and buy into his project," former England international Mills said to Stats Perform.
"That will take six months or so. Then he will need to move some players out and bring new ones in.
"This season, though, they still need success. European football – Europa League – is probably mandatory. They must avoid the Conference League.
"Without being disrespectful, third-tier European football isn’t good enough for Manchester United, so it has to be the Europa League or Champions League.
"The Europa League is very achievable and not making it would be a huge disappointment.
"There are still good players at the club and they have still got to aim for the Champions League, but [getting into the top four] will take good coaching, a big turnaround, and maybe a bit of luck."
Amorim is the seventh different manager to take charge of the club since Alex Ferguson's retirement in 2013.
The 39-year-old won three Portuguese league titles with Benfica as a player while he left Sporting as head coach after guiding them to two league titles and two Taca da Liga trophies.
Sporting also started this season by winning all 11 league games under Amorim before his departure.
"The appointment of Ruben Amorim is a good one," added Mills. "You have to look at the people involved [in the appointment] as well.
"Dan Ashworth hasn’t made too many wrong decisions as a sporting or technical director. Throughout his career, at West Brom, England, Brighton, and Newcastle, his recruitment has been very good.
"Jason Wilcox, who sits under him, did incredibly well at Manchester City. He identified many young players who, if they didn’t become stars at City, went on to become stars elsewhere.
"Recruitment will be handled well in terms of managers, coaches, and players, but that takes time and it’s going to take at least two or three transfer windows.
"I like that Amorim came in and said, ‘Right, that’s it. A new start’. He has moved away from the Ferguson era that people keep harping on about.
"Ten-plus years ago, we knew how good Manchester United were, but football moves on. Liverpool went through a similar phase after their success in the 1980s."
Amorim takes over at United with the club 13th in the Premier League with 15 points from 11 matches and having collected just one win from four matches in the Europa League.
Mills believes there is plenty for United fans to like about the new boss' approach on and off the pitch.
"Football has evolved faster in the last 10 years than ever before and Amorim deals with the press well," he said.
"When Sporting beat Manchester City, he admitted they played well but got a bit lucky. People appreciate that honesty.
"Fans and pundits are more knowledgeable now than ever before, thanks to the amount of football they consume and the opinions they hear, especially on social media."
After facing Ipswich, Amorim's first two home games will see Man Utd take on Bodo/Glimt in the Europa League and Everton in the Premier League.
He will then take the Red Devils to the Emirates Stadium for a huge clash against Arsenal on 4 December.
United reached this season's Europa League by winning the FA Cup under Ten Hag and they have that potential path again this season, while they are also still in the EFL Cup, a competition in which they will play Tottenham in the quarter-finals.
Winning the Europa League itself, meanwhile, would mean qualification to the Champions League.
But while there are multiple routes open to Amorim in his bid to secure a continental spot, the Opta supercomputer does not like his chances of doing that through United's league placing.
After their poor start to the season, United have just a 13.2% chance of finishing in the top six, and a 33.1% shot at reaching the top eight.
As things stand, they are most likely to finish between ninth and 11th, meaning they are on track for their worst-ever Premier League finish unless Amorim can lead a rapid revival.
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