Manchester United are in desperate need of a Premier League win when they take on Aston Villa on Sunday.
The pressure has piled on Erik ten Hag after last week's sorry 3-0 loss at Tottenham.
United have lost three of their six league fixtures this season, winning just twice - against Southampton and Fulham - while they have lost their last two home matches in the top flight by an aggregate score of 6-0.
Their tally of seven points is their joint-fewest after six games of any Premier League season (two wins, one draw, three losses), having made identical starts under David Moyes in 2013-14 and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer in 2020-21.
They now face another of the league's top teams when they take on Villa, who are fresh from their Champions League triumph over Bayern Munich and unbeaten in four league matches.
United, meanwhile, were forced to settle for a 3-3 draw at Porto in the Europa League, with Harry Maguire's late leveller doing little to ease the pressure on Ten Hag.
Here, we crunch the numbers and dive into the Opta insights ahead of Sunday's clash.
What's expected?
As far as home defeats in the Manchester rain go, last week's capitulation against Spurs was as bad as they get.
Ten Hag looked on miserably as United, who were reduced to 10 men when Bruno Fernandes was sent off late in the first half (that red card has now been rescinded), were carved open time and time again.
Spurs generated a huge expected goals (xG) figure of 4.59 on Sunday – the third-highest United have allowed a Premier League opponent since such records began in 2009. Only versus Arsenal in December 2017 (a 3-1 win) and against Man City in October 2011 (a memorable 6-1 loss at Old Trafford), have United given up a greater quality of chances in a Premier League match.
United also saw their opponents have nine big chances – only in five previous games in Premier League history has a team had more big chances in one game (Man City v Watford 2019-20, Man Utd v Sunderland 2012-13, Arsenal v Fulham 2018-19, Arsenal v Stoke City 2015-16, Man City v Crystal Palace 2017-18 – all 10).
Villa, on the other hand, have won both of their Champions League games without conceding a goal, and though Ipswich Town fought back to draw 2-2 with them last weekend, Unai Emery's team have enjoyed a fine start to the campaign.
They have picked up 13 points in their opening six Premier League matches this season (four wins, one draw, one defeat), their best start to a season since 2008-09 under Martin O’Neill (also 13 points).
As such, it's no surprise to see Opta's supercomputer makes Villa the favourites with a 42% win probability, albeit the gap is perhaps not as big as one might expect. United came out on top in 33.2% of the model's simulations, while the threat of a draw is 24.8%.
And it is worth noting that United have a great record against the Villans.
United have won 40 Premier League games against Villa, with only the Red Devils themselves beating an opponent more often in the competition's history (41 vs Everton).
Villa have won just one of their last 25 Premier League home games against Manchester United (eight draws, 16 losses), with that victory coming in Emery's first game in charge of the club in November 2022 (3-1).
Duran's hungry like a wolf
Forgive the quite abysmal Duran Duran reference, but Villa's fans are surely going to be pulling out the 1980s hits this season if their super-sub forward Jhon Duran continues to thrive as he is right now.
Duran scored a brilliant lob to see off Bayern in midweek, taking his tally of goals for the season to five in all competitions - all of those have come from the bench. His four league strikes have come from just 2.1 xG.
He has also netted four league goals in his last four league appearances at Villa Park, all as a substitute.
The 20-year-old averages a goal every 43 minutes at Villa Park in the competition, the second-best ratio by a player at a single venue (250+ minutes played there), behind Luis Suarez at Carrow Road (a goal every 38 minutes).
Duran is averaging a goal every 39 minutes this season in the league - in comparison, 10-goal Erling Haaland averages one every 54 minutes.
The Colombian has had just 10 shots in the league this term, so he has a 40% shot-conversion rate, the best rate in the competition of any player to score more than three times.
With such a quality talent in reserve, Villa's attack will surely be licking their lips if they can get at United's defence in the same way Spurs did.
Since Emery's first Premier League game in charge, only Man City (85), Liverpool (84) and Arsenal (81) have picked up more home points than Villa (74).
Among Villa managers to take charge of five or more home top-flight matches, only European Cup-winning boss Tony Barton (70%, won 37/53) has a better home win percentage than Emery (66%, won 23/35).
Leaking like Old Trafford's roof
United have actually kept successive away clean sheets in the league, winning 3-0 against Southampton and drawing 0-0 with Crystal Palace. They last kept three away clean sheets in a row in March 2021.
However, United have lost eight Premier League matches by a margin of three or more goals under Ten Hag. Since the start of 2022-23, the only current Premier League managers to suffer more 3+ goal defeats are Gary O'Neil and Sean Dyche (nine each).
United so often leave wide open spaces in midfield and huge gaps in defence, with defenders isolated in one-v-ones.
Despite conceding only eight goals, United have an xG against of 11.04 so far in the league this season – that is the fifth-worst total in the league, lower than only the three promoted clubs and Brentford.
That is despite United allowing just 74 shots, which ranks ninth in the top flight. However, United’s average per-shot xGA is 0.14, which is the second-worst in the league, after Brighton (0.17).
Ten Hag has to find a defensive formula that works if United are to get something out of this game.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Aston Villa - Ollie Watkins
While the limelight is on Duran, it is worth mentioning that Watkins has also scored four Premier League goals this term.
Watkins has been involved in 55 goals in 67 Premier League appearances under Emery for Aston Villa (36 goals, 19 assists), with only Erling Haaland (65) and Mohamed Salah (60) scoring or assisting more goals in that time. The former Brentford attacker is looking to score in four games in a row for the first time since April 2023.
Manchester United - Bruno Fernandes
United will be delighted Fernandes will be available for this game. He was set to miss just his eighth match for the club since his debut in February 2020, with the Red Devils winless in their last four (one draw, three losses) and failing to score in their last three without the Portuguese international in the team.
Fernandes has had 17 shots in the Premier League this season, but is yet to score.
That tally of shots is the most any player who is yet to score this season has had across the entirety of Europe's top five leagues this season.
Maresca calls on goal-happy Chelsea to tighten up versus Forest
Enzo Maresca has been delighted with Chelsea's attacking prowess in the early weeks of his reign but says they have much to improve at the other end ahead of hosting Nottingham Forest.
Maresca has made a strong start to life at Stamford Bridge, with the Blues unbeaten in five Premier League matches (four wins, one draw) since a matchday one defeat to Manchester City.
No team's Premier League games have produced more goals than Chelsea's so far in 2024-25, with Maresca's men scoring 15 times and conceding seven.
Forest's games, meanwhile, have contained the fewest goals of any side in the top flight (11, six for and five against).
Chelsea edged another goalfest on Thursday as they beat Gent 4-2 in the Europa Conference League, leading Maresca to call for defensive improvements.
"I think we are performing very positively, especially in attack, it's going very well so we are happy," Maresca said.
"As I said many times already, for sure there are always things we can do better. We can attack better, we can defend much better.
"But the most important thing we can learn is that we cannot switch off. For their second goal, we saw that the game was already finished.
"If we want to take a step forward, even when you the game is almost finished, you have to continue and not give away another goal, but it was a good performance and result.
Forest, meanwhile, saw their unbeaten start to the campaign halted by Fulham last time out, losing 1-0 in the absence of star midfielder Morgan Gibbs-White, who was suspended after being sent off at Brighton one week earlier.
The England international has told BBC Sport he is working on controlling his temperament, saying: "If I'm at 70% or 60% going into a game, I can't play like that.
"I have to be 150% all the time. I always have to be on it and I like the feeling of having control in a game.
"Sometimes when we're having none of the ball I get frustrated, but that's when the control comes in and to understand what the manager wants from this moment."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Chelsea – Cole Palmer
Palmer became the first player in Premier League history to score four times in the first half of a game as Chelsea beat Brighton 4-2 last week.
Since his debut for Chelsea in September last year (a home defeat to Forest), Cole Palmer has been involved in more Premier League goals than any other player (43 – 28 goals, 15 assists).
Nottingham Forest – James Ward-Prowse
Forest may need some dead-ball magic if they are to earn a result, and specialist Ward-Prowse has a fine record against the Blues.
Ward-Prowse has been involved in four goals in his last five Premier League starts against Chelsea (two goals, two assists), netting the winner on his last start at Stamford Bridge with Southampton in April 2023.
MATCH PREDICTION – CHELSEA WIN
Forest won this exact fixture 1-0 last season – only once have they ever won consecutive away league games against Chelsea, doing so on their first two visits to Stamford Bridge in 1907 and 1908.
Indeed, Chelsea have won just one of their four Premier League meetings with Forest since the latter returned to the top-flight in 2022 (two draws, one loss), though it was a 3-2 victory in the teams' last such game in May.
However, since their return to the competition, no team has lost more Premier League away games in London than Forest (10).
They have lost each of their last four in the capital, conceding three or more goals each time, which will give an in-form Blues attack plenty of confidence.
Chelsea have won nine of their last 11 Premier League games (one draw, one defeat), netting at least twice in eight of those nine victories. Indeed, the Blues are the top scorers in the league this season (15) and also have the highest shot conversion rate (20.3%).
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Chelsea – 62.3%
Nottingham Forest – 17.8%
Draw – 19.8%
De Bruyne to skip Nations League fixtures to manage workload
Kevin De Bruyne has asked to skip Belgium's remaining Nations League fixtures for 2024 in order to manage his workload, coach Domenico Tedesco has revealed.
On Friday, Tedesco named his 23-man squad for the Red Devils' upcoming games against Italy and France in Group A2, with De Bruyne the headline omission.
De Bruyne played both of Belgium's games in the September international break, as they beat Israel 3-1 before losing 2-0 to France in Lyon.
After that latter match, he made headlines by questioning the mentality and fighting spirit of Tedesco's team, but he has reaffirmed his commitment to continuing on the international stage until at least the 2026 World Cup.
With Manchester City facing a gruelling schedule this term after qualifying for the first 32-team Club World Cup, the midfielder has taken steps to protect his fitness.
"I had a long phone conversation with Kevin. He has an injury, but he is very motivated to continue with the Red Devils and to play the World Cup in 2026," Tedesco said when announcing his latest squad.
"He has asked to skip this camp and also November, to take care of his body. The schedule has become even busier due to the Club World Cup.
"That is why he is not there now and in November. But when it really counts – the World Cup – he will be there."
Tedesco was also asked if De Bruyne's comments last month had led to any negative repercussions in the squad, but he insisted the controversy surrounding them was unwarranted.
"Kevin is a big player, but also a big personality," he added. "We talked after what happened in the last match. Of course he was emotional, he always wants to win. But he never mentioned names in the media. We just have to deal with it.
"In the media it has become a big item, just because it was Kevin who said it. But in the dressing room it is not a big topic."
Romelu Lukaku is the other big-name absentee from Belgium's latest squad, with the Red Devils' all-time leading scorer failing to win a recall after being dropped last month, despite recording four Serie A goal involvements for Napoli in a positive start to the season.
Belgium squad: Koen Casteels (Al Qadsiah), Matz Sels (Nottingham Forest), Maarten Vandevoordt (RB Leipzig), Sebastiaan Bornauw (Wolfsburg), Timothy Castagne (Fulham), Zeno Debast (Sporting Lisbon), Maxim De Cuyper (Club Brugge), Koni De Winter (Genoa), Wout Faes (Leicester City), Matte Smets (Genk), Arthur Theate (Eintracht Frankfurt), Charles De Ketelaere (Atalanta), Arne Engels (Augsburg), Orel Mangala (Lyon), Amadou Onana (Aston Villa), Youri Tielemans (Aston Villa), Johan Bakayoko (PSV), Jeremy Doku (Manchester City), Malick Fofana (Lyon), Dodi Lukebakio (Sevilla), Lois Openda (RB Leipzig) Cyril Ngonge (Napoli), Leandro Trossard (Arsenal).
Carsley: No more 'copy and paste' England squads
Interim England boss Lee Carsley says he will not "copy and paste" his squads, with players to be rewarded for strong club form with Three Lions call-ups.
Carsley oversaw 2-0 Nations League victories over the Republic of Ireland and Finland last month, having taken the reins on a temporary basis after Gareth Southgate's resignation.
The former under-21 boss announced his latest 25-man squad for upcoming matches against Greece and Finland on Thursday, making four changes from last month's party.
Tottenham striker Dominic Solanke won his first call-up in seven years, with Eberechi Eze, Harry Maguire, Tino Livramento and Jarrod Bowen all left out.
Predecessor Southgate was often criticised for sticking with a trusted core of players during his eight-year spell with the Three Lions, but Carsley says nobody is guaranteed a place under him.
"In the back of my mind, I wanted to make sure it feels fresh," Carsley said.
"When you get that email or WhatsApp to say that you've been called up, it's an achievement because it shouldn't be something that is taken for granted.
"I thought it was important that it was not just a copy and paste. I want them to feel like they have earned their place in the squad."
Tottenham midfielder James Maddison and Manchester United forward Marcus Rashford – both of whom were left out of Southgate's Euro 2024 squad – were among the players to be overlooked.
Carsley said he had been left with several tough decisions to make but had prioritised those in form in order to build rhythm before the 2026 World Cup qualifiers start next year.
"The players I've left out, I could make a case for them being in, but ultimately I have to make those decisions," Carsley said.
"The reality is you want a player to be coming in in top form and fighting for a position in the team.
"Getting out of this Nations League is important for us in terms of setting up World Cup qualification. Whether I'm here or not, it's important we are in a favourable pattern and in a position to win the World Cup."
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