Having fallen short last term, both Manchester United and Tottenham started the 2024-25 season with Champions League qualification their primary aim.
However, five games into the new campaign, neither side has exactly marked themselves out as the team to beat in the race for a top-four finish.
With just seven points apiece, United and Spurs sit 11th and 10th, respectively, in the early-season standings ahead of their headline clash at Old Trafford on Sunday.
United's woes deepened as they were held to a Europa League draw by Twente on Wednesday, while Spurs eased the pressure somewhat by beating Qarabag on Thursday.
Both Erik ten Hag and Ange Postecoglou have come under pressure already this season, and should either taste defeat on their return to league action on matchday six, the criticism will only be amplified.
But what should we expect at the Theatre of Dreams, and what does the data say about both teams? Here's our Opta-powered match preview.
What's expected?
United have won 24 Premier League home games against Tottenham – only Arsenal have beaten an opponent more often at home in the competition's history (25 versus Everton).
With that in mind, it is perhaps not a surprise to see the Opta supercomputer make the Red Devils favourites, albeit not comprehensively.
Across 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the supercomputer, United were victorious in 41.1%, with Spurs winning 34.6% and the other 24.3% finishing level.
Tottenham are unbeaten in their last three Premier League games against the Red Devils, however, winning one and drawing two after losing four straight against them between 2021 and 2022.
Postecoglou's team twice fought back to recover a 2-2 draw when they last visited Old Trafford in January, Rodrigo Bentancur and Richarlison cancelling out goals from Rasmus Hojlund and Marcus Rashford.
United have not lost at home to Spurs since Ole Gunnar Solskjaer oversaw a dismal 6-1 defeat in October 2020, winning two and drawing one of their three home matches against them under Ten Hag.
Lack of firepower costing United
United's season to date has been defined by an inability to make the most of their chances in front of goal, and it was the same old story at Crystal Palace last week.
Ten Hag's side dominated for long periods at Selhurst Park but could not make the breakthrough, failing to take any of their five big chances and seeing their former goalkeeper Dean Henderson make seven saves for Palace in a goalless draw.
With a hamstring injury preventing Hojlund from featuring this season and Bruno Fernandes yet to open his account for 2024-25, United have too often looked toothless.
Their total expected goals (xG) figure of 9.6 for the season is the third-highest in the Premier League, behind only title contenders Manchester City (11.46) and Liverpool (10.1). However, United have only hit the net five times, giving them an xG underperformance of 4.6.
Only Southampton (two goals from 7.1 xG) have posted a larger negative differential in the competition this term, though United have also been unfortunate to face some in-form goalkeepers, with their expected goals on target (xGoT) figure only slightly lower than their xG at 9.08.
How, then, can Ten Hag get his team firing? New arrival Joshua Zirkzee led the line last week but struggled, only attempting one shot and managing three touches in the box. Zirkzee has amassed more xG (2.19) than any other United player this season, despite only starting three of their five league matches.
Marcus Rashford, who replaced him just after the hour mark, did not register a single effort at goal or a touch in the Palace area. Ten Hag's decision to drop Rashford for that match, just days after declaring the forward was getting back to his best, gave rise to rumours of a rift between the duo, which the Dutchman was forced to describe as "crazy".
Rashford appears likely to return to the lineup on Sunday, having scored six previous Premier League goals against Spurs – only against Leicester City (eight) has he netted more.
Since Postecoglou joined the club last year, only Newcastle United (53) and Brighton (47) have allowed opponents more fast breaks than Tottenham (44, level with United). In what could be an open, watchable affair, Rashford may have a major role to play.
Ange targets end to away-day struggles
Tottenham responded to back-to-back Premier League defeats with a much-needed 3-1 victory over Brentford last week, with Dominic Solanke, Brennan Johnson and James Maddison netting after Bryan Mbeumo opened the scoring within 23 seconds.
Since the start of last season, only Man City (31) have gained more points from losing positions in the Premier League than Spurs' 28. It is just as well that Postecoglou's men showed their powers of recovery in that game, with rumblings of discontent starting to emerge in the early weeks of the season.
Postecoglou's team needed another fightback to beat Coventry City in the EFL Cup just a few days earlier, after which he said there would be no "easy or quick fix" to make Spurs competitive at the top level.
The Australian is determined to make the "Spursy" tag a thing of the past, but their soft underbelly has continually cost them on the road since he took charge.
They took 14 points from their first six away Premier League games under Postecoglou (four wins, two draws), only to garner just 14 from their next 15 on the road (three wins, five draws, seven defeats).
Among ever-present Premier League teams across the last two seasons, no side has won fewer away games since the start of November 2023 than Spurs (three), with Bournemouth (24), Nottingham Forest (19) and Crystal Palace (15) among the clubs to better their 14 away points won in that span, a figure that puts them level with Everton.
If Tottenham are to contend for a top-four place or better, they simply must improve their away form, starting with Sunday's clash with a direct rival.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Manchester United – Bruno Fernandes
United captain Bruno Fernandes has had more shots without scoring than any other Premier League player this season (17). Meanwhile, only Southampton's Cameron Archer (2.3) and Bournemouth's Evanilson (2) have amassed a higher xG figure without finding the net so far than Fernandes (1.9).
The Portugal international has, however, been involved in at least nine more attacking sequences (30 – 17 shots, six chances created, seven build-ups to a shot) than any of his team-mates this term (Diogo Dalot is second with 21).
Tottenham – Son Heung-min
Son's involvement in this game has been called into question after appearing to suffer an injury against Qarabag, but Postecoglou was understandably quick to play it down.
The South Korean is likely to be key, having created more chances from open play than any other player in the Premier League this season (13).
Son has also had a hand in five goals in his last seven league appearances against Manchester United, scoring four and assisting one.
Palmer will become one of the world's best players, predicts Cucurella
Cole Palmer will be among the very best players in the world if he continues on his current trajectory, believes the forward's Chelsea team-mate Marc Cucurella.
Palmer enjoyed a magnificent debut campaign in 2023-24 after swapping Manchester City for Stamford Bridge, with his 33 Premier League goal involvements (22 goals, 11 assists) the most of any player.
After impressing for England at Euro 2024 – where he came off the bench to score in their 2-1 final defeat to Spain – Palmer has picked up where he left off this term, registering 11 goal contributions (six goals, five assists) to once again lead the charts.
He became the first player in Premier League history to score four goals before half-time in a single game versus Brighton and Hove Albion in September, when he scooped the competition's Player of the Month award.
Palmer also won England's Player of the Year award for last campaign and Cucurella, who was a key part of the Spain team that defeated the Three Lions in Berlin, believes he is destined for the very summit.
"If you see him not in his kit you would never in your life say he was a footballer, but then on the pitch... he shoots and it doesn’t seem like he is hitting it hard but he scores," Cucurella said in an interview with The Guardian.
"He's very different. I don't know how to explain it: he's special. We’re very lucky we have him.
"We [Spain] are lucky he didn’t play much in the Euros either because he came on and almost messed it up for us.
"If he carries on like this, he'll be among the best. He doesn't have much strength in the air, but if that’s his only problem, then he's all right."
Chelsea are unbeaten in six Premier League games since going down 2-0 to champions City on matchday one, with boss Enzo Maresca winning the competition's Manager of the Month prize for September.
Though it is still early days for the Italian coach, Cucurella says the Blues have lofty ambitions under him.
"Our objective has to be to win a trophy," he said. "In the Conference League we can do something good, and the cups.
"Arsenal and City have been working in the same way for many years, the same idea, the same players, and I think we’re a bit far away from that.
"Liverpool too because it's been the same players. But we can get into the Champions League, that's the key objective."
Arsenal 'envious' of Chelsea's WSL dominance, admits McCabe
Arsenal are "envious" of the era of dominance over the Women's Super League enjoyed by rivals Chelsea, admitted Katie McCabe ahead of Saturday's derby between the sides.
Chelsea have won five straight WSL crowns, edging out Manchester City on goal difference last season to give Emma Hayes a triumphant send-off before she joined the United States.
Now under the stewardship of former Lyon boss Sonia Bompastor, Chelsea are the only team in the WSL with a perfect record this term, winning their opening two matches before seeing last week's clash with Manchester United postponed.
Arsenal, on the other hand, have already played out home draws with Man City and Everton, ramping up the pressure ahead of Saturday's game at the Emirates Stadium.
Asked by reporters how it felt to see Arsenal's rivals dominate year after year, full-back McCabe said: "It always hurts.
"You want that to be you. You are in a team sport to be lifting trophies with your team-mates.
"Of course you are envious of them being successful. What we can do is focus on ourselves and put one foot in front of the other. Hopefully, by the end of the season, that will be us."
While Chelsea approach this weekend's headline fixture as favourites, they were trounced 4-1 in this exact game last December, with Alessio Russo scoring twice in one of just three league defeats the Blues suffered all campaign.
Looking back at that victory, McCabe said: "We take those moments as positives and bring it in and really instil that winning mentality into the team.
"We already did it last year, so it's not a new thing for us. It is about controlling ourselves, controlling our gameplan and what we want to do in the game and applying it."
Chelsea focusing on themselves ahead of Arsenal clash, says Bompastor
Chelsea head coach Sonia Bompastor says the Blues are focusing purely on their own form as they bid to continue their flawless start to her reign against Arsenal.
Taking over from legendary boss Emma Hayes, Bompastor has overseen back-to-back Women's Super League wins over Aston Villa (1-0) and Crystal Palace (7-0).
The Blues saw their matchday three fixture versus Manchester United postponed last week, but a victory over rivals Arsenal in Saturday's lone WSL game would take them top of the table.
Arsenal were tipped as candidates to end Chelsea's five-year reign at the summit of the English game in pre-season, only to draw two of their opening three matches, but Bompastor is not concerned with others' results.
"The players are really focused on themselves and on the team. I just want them to stay focused on the job we have to do. We prepare for every game in such a professional way," Bompastor said.
"For me, Arsenal is no different from the other teams we have been facing, so we focus on ourselves.
"We know what we need to do tomorrow to get a good result and a great performance, that's it. This game is worth three points, the same as the other ones.
"Of course it's a derby, a special game in that way, but it's just three points in the end. We have our ambitions, our goals, and this game will bring three points if we are able to win, that's it. I'm just focused on my team and what we need to do."
Arsenal are unbeaten in their last four home meetings with Chelsea in the WSL (two wins, two draws), but they have not won back-to-back home games against them since June 2013 (a run of three in a row).
They meet a Blues side in fine goalscoring form, winning their last five WSL games by an aggregate scoreline of 23-0 in a run dating back to Hayes' reign, though they have not won six straight league matches without conceding since April 2021.
Bompastor added: "We feel great. We had the last training session this afternoon and the weather was perfect, we really enjoyed it! The team is in a really good dynamic so we feel good.
"We played on Tuesday and we had a good result. We were able to manage the week the way we wanted to and I think we are ready for tomorrow, a big game and a derby."
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