Having fallen short last term, both Manchester United and Tottenham started the 2024-25 season with Champions League qualification their primary aim.
However, five games into the new campaign, neither side has exactly marked themselves out as the team to beat in the race for a top-four finish.
With just seven points apiece, United and Spurs sit 11th and 10th, respectively, in the early-season standings ahead of their headline clash at Old Trafford on Sunday.
United's woes deepened as they were held to a Europa League draw by Twente on Wednesday, while Spurs eased the pressure somewhat by beating Qarabag on Thursday.
Both Erik ten Hag and Ange Postecoglou have come under pressure already this season, and should either taste defeat on their return to league action on matchday six, the criticism will only be amplified.
But what should we expect at the Theatre of Dreams, and what does the data say about both teams? Here's our Opta-powered match preview.
What's expected?
United have won 24 Premier League home games against Tottenham – only Arsenal have beaten an opponent more often at home in the competition's history (25 versus Everton).
With that in mind, it is perhaps not a surprise to see the Opta supercomputer make the Red Devils favourites, albeit not comprehensively.
Across 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the supercomputer, United were victorious in 41.1%, with Spurs winning 34.6% and the other 24.3% finishing level.
Tottenham are unbeaten in their last three Premier League games against the Red Devils, however, winning one and drawing two after losing four straight against them between 2021 and 2022.
Postecoglou's team twice fought back to recover a 2-2 draw when they last visited Old Trafford in January, Rodrigo Bentancur and Richarlison cancelling out goals from Rasmus Hojlund and Marcus Rashford.
United have not lost at home to Spurs since Ole Gunnar Solskjaer oversaw a dismal 6-1 defeat in October 2020, winning two and drawing one of their three home matches against them under Ten Hag.
Lack of firepower costing United
United's season to date has been defined by an inability to make the most of their chances in front of goal, and it was the same old story at Crystal Palace last week.
Ten Hag's side dominated for long periods at Selhurst Park but could not make the breakthrough, failing to take any of their five big chances and seeing their former goalkeeper Dean Henderson make seven saves for Palace in a goalless draw.
With a hamstring injury preventing Hojlund from featuring this season and Bruno Fernandes yet to open his account for 2024-25, United have too often looked toothless.
Their total expected goals (xG) figure of 9.6 for the season is the third-highest in the Premier League, behind only title contenders Manchester City (11.46) and Liverpool (10.1). However, United have only hit the net five times, giving them an xG underperformance of 4.6.
Only Southampton (two goals from 7.1 xG) have posted a larger negative differential in the competition this term, though United have also been unfortunate to face some in-form goalkeepers, with their expected goals on target (xGoT) figure only slightly lower than their xG at 9.08.
How, then, can Ten Hag get his team firing? New arrival Joshua Zirkzee led the line last week but struggled, only attempting one shot and managing three touches in the box. Zirkzee has amassed more xG (2.19) than any other United player this season, despite only starting three of their five league matches.
Marcus Rashford, who replaced him just after the hour mark, did not register a single effort at goal or a touch in the Palace area. Ten Hag's decision to drop Rashford for that match, just days after declaring the forward was getting back to his best, gave rise to rumours of a rift between the duo, which the Dutchman was forced to describe as "crazy".
Rashford appears likely to return to the lineup on Sunday, having scored six previous Premier League goals against Spurs – only against Leicester City (eight) has he netted more.
Since Postecoglou joined the club last year, only Newcastle United (53) and Brighton (47) have allowed opponents more fast breaks than Tottenham (44, level with United). In what could be an open, watchable affair, Rashford may have a major role to play.
Ange targets end to away-day struggles
Tottenham responded to back-to-back Premier League defeats with a much-needed 3-1 victory over Brentford last week, with Dominic Solanke, Brennan Johnson and James Maddison netting after Bryan Mbeumo opened the scoring within 23 seconds.
Since the start of last season, only Man City (31) have gained more points from losing positions in the Premier League than Spurs' 28. It is just as well that Postecoglou's men showed their powers of recovery in that game, with rumblings of discontent starting to emerge in the early weeks of the season.
Postecoglou's team needed another fightback to beat Coventry City in the EFL Cup just a few days earlier, after which he said there would be no "easy or quick fix" to make Spurs competitive at the top level.
The Australian is determined to make the "Spursy" tag a thing of the past, but their soft underbelly has continually cost them on the road since he took charge.
They took 14 points from their first six away Premier League games under Postecoglou (four wins, two draws), only to garner just 14 from their next 15 on the road (three wins, five draws, seven defeats).
Among ever-present Premier League teams across the last two seasons, no side has won fewer away games since the start of November 2023 than Spurs (three), with Bournemouth (24), Nottingham Forest (19) and Crystal Palace (15) among the clubs to better their 14 away points won in that span, a figure that puts them level with Everton.
If Tottenham are to contend for a top-four place or better, they simply must improve their away form, starting with Sunday's clash with a direct rival.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Manchester United – Bruno Fernandes
United captain Bruno Fernandes has had more shots without scoring than any other Premier League player this season (17). Meanwhile, only Southampton's Cameron Archer (2.3) and Bournemouth's Evanilson (2) have amassed a higher xG figure without finding the net so far than Fernandes (1.9).
The Portugal international has, however, been involved in at least nine more attacking sequences (30 – 17 shots, six chances created, seven build-ups to a shot) than any of his team-mates this term (Diogo Dalot is second with 21).
Tottenham – Son Heung-min
Son's involvement in this game has been called into question after appearing to suffer an injury against Qarabag, but Postecoglou was understandably quick to play it down.
The South Korean is likely to be key, having created more chances from open play than any other player in the Premier League this season (13).
Son has also had a hand in five goals in his last seven league appearances against Manchester United, scoring four and assisting one.
'I love him' - Arteta adamant title fight will not affect relationship with Guardiola
Mikel Arteta insists the title fight between Arsenal and Manchester City will not affect his relationship with Pep Guardiola.
The sides played out a dramatic 2-2 draw in the Premier League last Sunday, with City snatching a last-gasp equaliser after 10-man Arsenal had staunchly defended throughout the second half.
Leandro Trossard was dismissed at the end of the first half, receiving a second yellow card for kicking the ball away, and Arsenal were accused of using the "dark arts" in their attempts to come away with three points.
The Gunners spent a total of nine minutes and four seconds on their goal-kicks in Sunday's match – the most by any team in a Premier League game this season.
Meanwhile, the average delay at Arsenal restarts (goal-kicks, throw-ins and free-kicks) was 42.7 seconds, with only Aston Villa versus Wolves (47.3) taking longer this term.
Multiple City players have since criticised the tactics, with arguments also taking place on the pitch, but Arteta says his friendship with Guardiola would not suffer because of any on-pitch disagreements.
"I love him [Guardiola]. I respect him and admire him. I admire his team and everything he does," Arteta said.
"This is sport. One thing is our professional, another is my personal relationship. If that has to be damaged because we play against each other, then I wouldn't talk to him anymore!
"That's not the relationship I consider both of us have. Sport will never get in my way for a personal relationship, for sure."
Asked if the accusations aimed at Arsenal could affect it, Arteta added: "It depends. If it's true, but if it's not, and you show your integrity, do what you think is right, it doesn't have to.
"It's opinions. If you don't like them, you shouldn't be sitting where I am.
"It's simple, don't take it personally, make sure you handle the things you care about in the right way, and I really care about that relationship. It's the same as a lot of staff and players I've spent very important years of my life working with."
Arsenal are back in action against Leicester City in the Premier League on Saturday.
Postecoglou lauds 'under pressure' Ten Hag ahead of Old Trafford test
Ange Postecoglou believes Erik ten Hag has done a "fantastic job" at Manchester United ahead of Tottenham's visit to Old Trafford this Sunday.
Ten Hag, who has won the EFL Cup and FA Cup during his tenure with the Red Devils, has been the focus of criticism for a lack of identity in his time at the helm.
The Dutchman led United to their worst-ever Premier League finish last term, along with conceding 58 goals - the most they have let in during their time in the top flight.
But Postecoglou, along with his opposite number, has endured a difficult start to the campaign, with Spurs 10th in the early-season standings with seven points.
The Spurs head coach has come under fire for his team's slow start, having previously said that he "always win trophies in his second season."
And the Australian's upcoming assignment is no easy task against a side Tottenham have historically struggled against at Old Trafford.
United have won 24 Premier League home games against Spurs – only Arsenal have beaten a team more often at home in the competition’s history (25 vs Everton).
Postecoglou has also seen his side fail to perform away from home, despite having taken 14 points from his first six Premier League away games in charge.
Since, Spurs have managed to take 14 points from 15 games away from the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (three wins, five draws and seven defeats).
Among ever-present Premier League teams across the last two seasons, no side has won fewer away games since the start of November 2023 than Spurs' three.
Bournemouth (24), Nottingham Forest (19) and Crystal Palace (15) are among the clubs to better their 14 away points won in that span.
A result for either side could kickstart their respective seasons, but Postecoglou showered praise on Ten Hag ahead of kick-off this Sunday.
"There’s always some manager under pressure," Postecoglou said.
"There must be a spinning board with all our faces on and whichever it lands on cops it for a week or two.
"He’s done a great job. He keeps mentioning he’s won two trophies and that’s not insignificant.
"Everyone keeps saying that is all I need to do but then there is always something expected after. It is a difficult job.
"It is tough to go to Old Trafford. Irrespective of managers, it is still a rather compelling home record. It is one we will be ready for."
CF Montreal v San Jose Earthquakes: Confidence the key in reaching playoffs, says Pearce
CF Montreal full-back Tom Pearce believes his new side have all the capabilities of reaching the playoffs, preaching confidence within the group as key to their recent success.
After back-to-back defeats to New England Revolution and FC Cincinnati, conceding nine goals in those games, this weekend’s hosts have gone three unbeaten in the MLS.
Montreal currently sit 10th in the Eastern Conference, two points behind the Philadelphia Union in the final playoff place heading into the last four games of the regular season.
And Pearce, who joined the club from Wigan Athletic in July, has every confidence his team-mates can pull together to keep their campaign going.
“We’re in a good place after picking up seven points out of nine in one week. It’s a confidence booster and, not just the results, but the performances have been good,” Pearce said.
“After the two defeats we had, we got together as a group and just had an honest conversation about how we needed to get the confidence back to turn things around.
“I think since then we have done well in the games; training has been better, and we have that belief that if we keep playing our way, then fingers crossed, we will make the playoffs.”
San Jose, meanwhile, were unable to build on their draw with the Seattle Sounders after going down 2-1 against fellow Western Conference strugglers St. Louis City last time out.
The Earthquakes have won just one of their last five MLS fixtures, leaving them at the foot of the standings and 13 points behind the rest of the pack.
But with four games of the season remaining, interim head coach Ian Russell is hoping his players can leave it all out on the pitch and end a disappointing season on a high.
“As a coach, you try and motivate them by getting them prepared first of all,” Russell said.
“Knowing that as a professional player, it is your job to play and to play hard every game, even though we are out of the playoffs.
“They are battling for contracts, and you would hope that would be enough motivation for them. There has been good energy, but we have started poorly in the last few matches.”
PLAYERS TO WATCH:
Montreal – Caden Clark
Clark has now scored two goals in his last three MLS matches after finding the back of the net just once in his previous 60 regular season appearances dating back to June 2021.
San Jose – Jeremy Ebobisse
Ebobisse scored his 33rd career regular season goal for San Jose in their defeat on Saturday.
Only Chris Wondolowski (167) and Ronald Cerritos (61) have scored more goals for the Earthquakes in the club’s MLS history.
MATCH PREDICTION: MONTREAL WIN
Montreal have won four of their last six home matches in all competitions (L2), including each of the last two. Montreal have suffered only two defeats in their last 12 matches at home dating back to late May (W6 D4).
This will be the Earthquakes’ first visit to Montreal since July 2018, when the hosts recorded a 2-0 victory. In fact, Montreal have won all five of their home matches against San Jose by an aggregate score of 11-2.
San Jose’s 2-1 defeat to St. Louis last time out was their 22nd loss of the year, equalling the second-most defeats in a single season in the post-shootout era (since 2000). Only D.C. United in 2013 (24 losses) have suffered more defeats in a single season in the post-shootout era.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Montreal – 52.3%
Draw – 24.4%
San Jose – 23.4%
SportsMax is the Caribbean sports channel of choice, committed to providing sporting content of the highest quality to the Caribbean, delivered by a team of highly innovative, passionate and qualified professionals.
(876) 619-7629
digitalmedia@sportsmax.tv
