EPL

The Numbers Game: Under-fire Ten Hag and Postecoglou face off

By Sports Desk September 27, 2024

Having fallen short last term, both Manchester United and Tottenham started the 2024-25 season with Champions League qualification their primary aim.

However, five games into the new campaign, neither side has exactly marked themselves out as the team to beat in the race for a top-four finish.

With just seven points apiece, United and Spurs sit 11th and 10th, respectively, in the early-season standings ahead of their headline clash at Old Trafford on Sunday.

United's woes deepened as they were held to a Europa League draw by Twente on Wednesday, while Spurs eased the pressure somewhat by beating Qarabag on Thursday.

Both Erik ten Hag and Ange Postecoglou have come under pressure already this season, and should either taste defeat on their return to league action on matchday six, the criticism will only be amplified.

But what should we expect at the Theatre of Dreams, and what does the data say about both teams? Here's our Opta-powered match preview.

What's expected?

United have won 24 Premier League home games against Tottenham – only Arsenal have beaten an opponent more often at home in the competition's history (25 versus Everton).

With that in mind, it is perhaps not a surprise to see the Opta supercomputer make the Red Devils favourites, albeit not comprehensively.

Across 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the supercomputer, United were victorious in 41.1%, with Spurs winning 34.6% and the other 24.3% finishing level.

Tottenham are unbeaten in their last three Premier League games against the Red Devils, however, winning one and drawing two after losing four straight against them between 2021 and 2022.

Postecoglou's team twice fought back to recover a 2-2 draw when they last visited Old Trafford in January, Rodrigo Bentancur and Richarlison cancelling out goals from Rasmus Hojlund and Marcus Rashford.

United have not lost at home to Spurs since Ole Gunnar Solskjaer oversaw a dismal 6-1 defeat in October 2020, winning two and drawing one of their three home matches against them under Ten Hag.

Lack of firepower costing United

United's season to date has been defined by an inability to make the most of their chances in front of goal, and it was the same old story at Crystal Palace last week.

Ten Hag's side dominated for long periods at Selhurst Park but could not make the breakthrough, failing to take any of their five big chances and seeing their former goalkeeper Dean Henderson make seven saves for Palace in a goalless draw.

With a hamstring injury preventing Hojlund from featuring this season and Bruno Fernandes yet to open his account for 2024-25, United have too often looked toothless.

Their total expected goals (xG) figure of 9.6 for the season is the third-highest in the Premier League, behind only title contenders Manchester City (11.46) and Liverpool (10.1). However, United have only hit the net five times, giving them an xG underperformance of 4.6. 

Only Southampton (two goals from 7.1 xG) have posted a larger negative differential in the competition this term, though United have also been unfortunate to face some in-form goalkeepers, with their expected goals on target (xGoT) figure only slightly lower than their xG at 9.08.

How, then, can Ten Hag get his team firing? New arrival Joshua Zirkzee led the line last week but struggled, only attempting one shot and managing three touches in the box. Zirkzee has amassed more xG (2.19) than any other United player this season, despite only starting three of their five league matches. 

Marcus Rashford, who replaced him just after the hour mark, did not register a single effort at goal or a touch in the Palace area. Ten Hag's decision to drop Rashford for that match, just days after declaring the forward was getting back to his best, gave rise to rumours of a rift between the duo, which the Dutchman was forced to describe as "crazy".

Rashford appears likely to return to the lineup on Sunday, having scored six previous Premier League goals against Spurs – only against Leicester City (eight) has he netted more. 

Since Postecoglou joined the club last year, only Newcastle United (53) and Brighton (47) have allowed opponents more fast breaks than Tottenham (44, level with United). In what could be an open, watchable affair, Rashford may have a major role to play.

Ange targets end to away-day struggles

Tottenham responded to back-to-back Premier League defeats with a much-needed 3-1 victory over Brentford last week, with Dominic Solanke, Brennan Johnson and James Maddison netting after Bryan Mbeumo opened the scoring within 23 seconds.

Since the start of last season, only Man City (31) have gained more points from losing positions in the Premier League than Spurs' 28. It is just as well that Postecoglou's men showed their powers of recovery in that game, with rumblings of discontent starting to emerge in the early weeks of the season.

Postecoglou's team needed another fightback to beat Coventry City in the EFL Cup just a few days earlier, after which he said there would be no "easy or quick fix" to make Spurs competitive at the top level.

The Australian is determined to make the "Spursy" tag a thing of the past, but their soft underbelly has continually cost them on the road since he took charge. 

They took 14 points from their first six away Premier League games under Postecoglou (four wins, two draws), only to garner just 14 from their next 15 on the road (three wins, five draws, seven defeats). 

Among ever-present Premier League teams across the last two seasons, no side has won fewer away games since the start of November 2023 than Spurs (three), with Bournemouth (24), Nottingham Forest (19) and Crystal Palace (15) among the clubs to better their 14 away points won in that span, a figure that puts them level with Everton.

If Tottenham are to contend for a top-four place or better, they simply must improve their away form, starting with Sunday's clash with a direct rival.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Manchester United – Bruno Fernandes

United captain Bruno Fernandes has had more shots without scoring than any other Premier League player this season (17). Meanwhile, only Southampton's Cameron Archer (2.3) and Bournemouth's Evanilson (2) have amassed a higher xG figure without finding the net so far than Fernandes (1.9).

The Portugal international has, however, been involved in at least nine more attacking sequences (30 – 17 shots, six chances created, seven build-ups to a shot) than any of his team-mates this term (Diogo Dalot is second with 21).

Tottenham – Son Heung-min

Son's involvement in this game has been called into question after appearing to suffer an injury against Qarabag, but Postecoglou was understandably quick to play it down.

The South Korean is likely to be key, having created more chances from open play than any other player in the Premier League this season (13). 

Son has also had a hand in five goals in his last seven league appearances against Manchester United, scoring four and assisting one.

Related items

  • Girlz coach Busby eyes improved performance as 'Bunny' Shaw returns for South Africa friendlies Girlz coach Busby eyes improved performance as 'Bunny' Shaw returns for South Africa friendlies

    With Jamaica’s senior Reggae Girlz failing to register a win since beating Panama at last year’s Fifa Women’s World Cup, Head coach Hubert Busby says the two highly anticipated home friendlies against South Africa represent an opportunity to turnaround their poor run of form.

    Though focused on more than just immediate results, Busby pointed out that victory in upcoming matches is part of a larger vision—a journey toward a third-consecutive World Cup appearance in 2027 and the continued development of a sustainable, competitive program for Jamaica’s women’s football.

    The Girlz will take on South Africa at the Montego Bay Sports Complex on November 29 and December 2, in what will be their first matches on home soil since November 2022. It will also be the first game in Jamaica for the core group of the 2023 World Cup squad since last September’s Olympic qualifying playoff against Canada.

    “It’s special to have the girls back playing in front of our fans. This is an opportunity to connect with the home crowd again, but it’s also a critical step in our preparation for what’s ahead,” Busby shared as he unveiled his 23-member squad.

    “We're looking to have a good performance, then that leads to, obviously, a good result to end the year, but really it is also about us continuing to evaluate and to make the proper assessment of the players who continue to kind of move forward into World Cup qualifiers. I mean, that's really the bigger picture. So short term, let's get two good performances this week...two good results and take that into the February window,” he added.

    Khadija 'Bunny' Shaw has been in good form for Manchester City.

    Busby’s approach reflects his determination to build on recent experiences, including lessons learned from challenging matches against top-tier opponents like Brazil and more recently, France.

    Despite a compressed six-day camp prior to that encounter, in which they lost 0-3, he noted the progress made in refining their style of play, particularly in maintaining possession and executing defensive transitions.

    “We didn’t get the result we wanted against France, but there were positives, especially in how we’re evolving our style of play—keeping possession and building from the back. But we need to cut down on individual mistakes and improve decision-making in critical moments. Football is a game of moments, and minimizing mistakes during crucial periods is a key focus for us,” he noted.

    With the 2027 FIFA Women’s World Cup in Brazil as the ultimate target, Busby has been focused on establishing a winning culture while integrating new talent into the team.

    For the last camp, he invited Taylor Hinds, Lulu Jarvis, Reanna Blades, and Natasha Thomas in to see how they fit into the programme, but none of those players are listed for the upcoming camp, in which national youth representative Destiny Powell and Naya Cardoza will be the only new players among the core group.

    The coach stressed that his job is not just to guide the team to their third consecutive World Cup but to lay the groundwork for Jamaica’s participation in every World Cup thereafter, hence the consistent inclusion of young talent.

    “It’s not just about Brazil in 2027. It’s about creating a sustainable pipeline of talent so we’re always competitive because their growth today will fuel our success tomorrow. So it's really important to get these young players in,” Busby shared.

    “My responsibility is to get this team to the 2027 World Cup, but with that said, you know, we want to ensure that we're going to every single World Cup afterwards. Integrating young, talented players into the group to see where they are keeps the group fresh and challenges the group to keep it competitive. The success that we've had in the past, the average age, I believe was about 26 years of age, so they'll probably be about 28 going forward,” he explained.

    One of the most exciting elements of the upcoming friendlies is the return of Khadija “Bunny” Shaw, who has been in rich form for Manchester City.

    Busby, while highlighting her influence, both as a leader and a prolific scorer, as key to the team’s offensive strategy, also emphasized that the team’s success needs to be rooted in defence as former captain Konya Plummer, left full-back/winger Siobhan Wilson, and defensive midfielder Peyton McNamara also make a return to the fold. Wilson recently recovered from an ACL injury.

    Siobhan Wilson makes a long-awaited return after an ACL injury kept her out of action for nine months.

    “One of our objectives is to keep a clean sheet. Being good defensively has been the basis of our foundation of success without a doubt, but the biggest inclusion in this group is leader ‘Bunny’ Shaw. She's been in great form, as we all know, so it gives us another option up front to go around with all the as to go along with the other attacking options we have. But having her back in the group helps tremendously,” the tactician declared.

    Like the Reggae Girlz, South Africa are also fresh off their participation in the 2023 World Cup, and Busby expects the games to be another tough challenge for his side, much like it was in their last meeting in 2019 when they played out a 1-1 stalemate in Durban.

    “Going into these two games against a great-quality opponent in South Africa still gives us a really good litmus test in terms of where we are and, more importantly, where we need to go. So that is the objective. We want to get the wins. We want to improve performance. And we're hoping that these next two games will see a much more improved performance than we have before, that's for sure,” Busby ended. 

    Squad: Rebecca spencer, Liya Brooks, Allyson Swaby, Konya Plummer, Naya Cardoza, Vyan Sampson, Chantelle Swaby, Deneisha Blackwood, Siobhan Wilson, Atlanta Primus, Destiny Powell, Peyton McNamara, Jade Bailey Drew Spence, Paige Bailey-Gayle, Olufolasade Adamolekun, Khadija Shaw, Kayla McKenna, Davia Richards, Jody Brown, Shania Hayles, Shaniel Buckley, Tiffany Cameron

     

  • Longstaff keen to repay Howe's faith for Newcastle Longstaff keen to repay Howe's faith for Newcastle

    Sean Longstaff says Eddie Howe's trust is allowing him to play his best football as Newcastle United go in search of a third straight Premier League win against West Ham on Monday.

    After a difficult period, Newcastle bounced back by beating Arsenal (1-0) and Nottingham Forest (3-1) to enter the international break eighth in the table, one point adrift of third-placed Chelsea.

    Longstaff returned to Newcastle's starting lineup for those matches after temporarily losing his place in their midfield, with Joelinton being pushed into the frontline.

    "The midfield group is really strong," Longstaff told BBC Radio Newcastle. "When you look around it's all internationals. It's just about trying to bring my strengths to the team.

    "I know the manager trusts me which is the biggest thing. No matter what anyone ever says, the fact he trusts me gives me the most confidence."

    Longstaff then continued: "The season we qualified for the Champions League, I tried to enjoy it as much as possible.

    "Then, last year there was games every three days and with lads being injured, I think the burden of trying to win every game can mean the enjoyment leaves a little bit. I'm just trying to enjoy the games as much as I can and hopefully being a bit freer will help."

    Opponents West Ham, meanwhile, are just five points clear of the relegation zone after signing off for the international break with a goalless draw against Everton, a result that followed on from a crushing 3-0 defeat at Forest.

    The Hammers' underwhelming start to the campaign has seen Julen Lopetegui's position questioned mere months after he took the reins, and he is demanding a complete performance next time out.

    Speaking to BBC Sport after the Everton game, Lopetegui said: "We had more chances than them. In the second half, we had more clear chances to win the game.

    "The first half was a gift for them. We lost 45 minutes. In the second half we did better, we were aggressive and had chances to win.

    "The matches aren't about 45 minutes. They are 90 minutes and stoppage time. That's why I'm not happy, for sure. I think we can, and have to, do better."

    PLAYERS TO WATCH 

    Newcastle United – Harvey Barnes

    Only against Aston Villa (nine) has Barnes been directly involved in more Premier League goals than he has against West Ham (eight – six goals, two assists). 

    He has either scored or assisted in each of his last four against the Hammers (four goals, one assist), finding the net in each of the last three.

    West Ham – Michail Antonio 

    Only Wolves frontman Jorgen Strand Larsen (16) has made more hold-ups while retaining possession in the Premier League this season than West Ham striker Antonio (15). 

    Antonio is retaining possession with 71% of his hold-ups in the competition this term (15/21), the highest ratio of any player to attempt 10 or more. Lopetegui's side are likely to spend plenty of time under pressure on Monday, but he could provide them with an outlet.

    MATCH PREDICTION – NEWCASTLE UNITED WIN

    Newcastle have won their last two Premier League games and are looking to win three in a row for the first time since September 2023 – this is the sixth occasion since then that they have won twice in a row in the league.

    They have lost just one of their last 10 Premier League games against West Ham (five wins, four draws) and are unbeaten in all five against the Hammers under Howe (two wins, three draws). They triumphed 4-3 when the sides last met at St James' Park in March.

    West Ham, meanwhile, have kept just two clean sheets in their last 28 Premier League away games, conceding 66 goals (2.4 per game). 

    Indeed, in 2024, they have conceded more away goals in the top-flight (35) than any side.

    Lopetegui's men have also failed to score in their last two league games, as many as in their previous 14 beforehand. Only five teams have a worse difference between their expected goals (xG) and expected goals against (xGA) figures than West Ham (-2.97) this term.

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Newcastle United – 58.9%

    West Ham – 19.7%

    Draw – 21.4%

  • Maresca confirms James will miss Leicester clash with hamstring injury Maresca confirms James will miss Leicester clash with hamstring injury

    Enzo Maresca confirmed that Reece James has suffered another hamstring injury and will miss Chelsea's Premier League fixture against Leicester City on Saturday. 

    James made 11 appearances in all competitions last season before undergoing hamstring surgery, which was designed to help him overcome his series of injuries.

    He returned to action in Chelsea's 2-1 defeat to Liverpool last month, completing his first 90 minutes in 569 days a week later against Newcastle United. 

    Though his latest injury setback is his eighth hamstring problem in four years, while also picking up thigh, ankle and muscle issues along the way. 

    Maresca played down concerns about a long-term lay-off but confirmed James will miss Saturday's match at the King Power Stadium. 

    "We have just one injured player and that's Reece, who unfortunately felt something small in training two days ago, and we don't want to take a risk for the weekend," he said.

    "It's a hamstring, muscular problem. We will see, we don't know for how long, for sure [we want him fit for longer]. At the moment it is not happening, but we hope it will happen soon.

    "He is out this weekend, but hopefully he can be back soon. It's probably difficult that he can be available for the Conference League [next Thursday], but hopefully soon."

    Since his debut season in 2019-20, James' most appearances came in the 2020-21 campaign, featuring 47 times in Chelsea's Champions League winning season. 

    His best run of matches during that time is six in May 2021, but he managed just 482 minutes under Mauricio Pochettino in all competitions last season. 

    James has, however, managed more minutes (6138) in the Premier League since the 2020-21 season than any other player in the current Chelsea squad, though Enzo Fernandez (4375) is second, despite only joining the club in January 2023.

© 2024 SportsMaxTV All Rights Reserved.