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• The Numbers Game: Under-fire Ten Hag and Postecoglou face off

  Having fallen short last term, both Manchester United and Tottenham started the 2024-25 season with Champions League qualification their primary aim.

  However, five games into the new campaign, neither side has exactly marked themselves out as the team to beat in the race for a top-four finish.

  With just seven points apiece, United and Spurs sit 11th and 10th, respectively, in the early-season standings ahead of their headline clash at Old Trafford on Sunday.

  United's woes deepened as they were held to a Europa League draw by Twente on Wednesday, while Spurs eased the pressure somewhat by beating Qarabag on Thursday.

  Both Erik ten Hag and Ange Postecoglou have come under pressure already this season, and should either taste defeat on their return to league action on matchday six, the criticism will only be amplified.

  But what should we expect at the Theatre of Dreams, and what does the data say about both teams? Here's our Opta-powered match preview.

  What's expected?

  United have won 24 Premier League home games against Tottenham – only Arsenal have beaten an opponent more often at home in the competition's history (25 versus Everton).

  With that in mind, it is perhaps not a surprise to see the Opta supercomputer make the Red Devils favourites, albeit not comprehensively.

  Across 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the supercomputer, United were victorious in 41.1%, with Spurs winning 34.6% and the other 24.3% finishing level.

  Tottenham are unbeaten in their last three Premier League games against the Red Devils, however, winning one and drawing two after losing four straight against them between 2021 and 2022.

  Postecoglou's team twice fought back to recover a 2-2 draw when they last visited Old Trafford in January, Rodrigo Bentancur and Richarlison cancelling out goals from Rasmus Hojlund and Marcus Rashford.

  United have not lost at home to Spurs since Ole Gunnar Solskjaer oversaw a dismal 6-1 defeat in October 2020, winning two and drawing one of their three home matches against them under Ten Hag.

  Lack of firepower costing United

  United's season to date has been defined by an inability to make the most of their chances in front of goal, and it was the same old story at Crystal Palace last week.

  Ten Hag's side dominated for long periods at Selhurst Park but could not make the breakthrough, failing to take any of their five big chances and seeing their former goalkeeper Dean Henderson make seven saves for Palace in a goalless draw.

  With a hamstring injury preventing Hojlund from featuring this season and Bruno Fernandes yet to open his account for 2024-25, United have too often looked toothless.

  Their total expected goals (xG) figure of 9.6 for the season is the third-highest in the Premier League, behind only title contenders Manchester City (11.46) and Liverpool (10.1). However, United have only hit the net five times, giving them an xG underperformance of 4.6. 

  Only Southampton (two goals from 7.1 xG) have posted a larger negative differential in the competition this term, though United have also been unfortunate to face some in-form goalkeepers, with their expected goals on target (xGoT) figure only slightly lower than their xG at 9.08.

  How, then, can Ten Hag get his team firing? New arrival Joshua Zirkzee led the line last week but struggled, only attempting one shot and managing three touches in the box. Zirkzee has amassed more xG (2.19) than any other United player this season, despite only starting three of their five league matches. 

  Marcus Rashford, who replaced him just after the hour mark, did not register a single effort at goal or a touch in the Palace area. Ten Hag's decision to drop Rashford for that match, just days after declaring the forward was getting back to his best, gave rise to rumours of a rift between the duo, which the Dutchman was forced to describe as "crazy".

  Rashford appears likely to return to the lineup on Sunday, having scored six previous Premier League goals against Spurs – only against Leicester City (eight) has he netted more. 

  Since Postecoglou joined the club last year, only Newcastle United (53) and Brighton (47) have allowed opponents more fast breaks than Tottenham (44, level with United). In what could be an open, watchable affair, Rashford may have a major role to play.

  Ange targets end to away-day struggles

  Tottenham responded to back-to-back Premier League defeats with a much-needed 3-1 victory over Brentford last week, with Dominic Solanke, Brennan Johnson and James Maddison netting after Bryan Mbeumo opened the scoring within 23 seconds.

  Since the start of last season, only Man City (31) have gained more points from losing positions in the Premier League than Spurs' 28. It is just as well that Postecoglou's men showed their powers of recovery in that game, with rumblings of discontent starting to emerge in the early weeks of the season.

  Postecoglou's team needed another fightback to beat Coventry City in the EFL Cup just a few days earlier, after which he said there would be no "easy or quick fix" to make Spurs competitive at the top level.

  The Australian is determined to make the "Spursy" tag a thing of the past, but their soft underbelly has continually cost them on the road since he took charge. 

  They took 14 points from their first six away Premier League games under Postecoglou (four wins, two draws), only to garner just 14 from their next 15 on the road (three wins, five draws, seven defeats). 

  Among ever-present Premier League teams across the last two seasons, no side has won fewer away games since the start of November 2023 than Spurs (three), with Bournemouth (24), Nottingham Forest (19) and Crystal Palace (15) among the clubs to better their 14 away points won in that span, a figure that puts them level with Everton.

  If Tottenham are to contend for a top-four place or better, they simply must improve their away form, starting with Sunday's clash with a direct rival.

  PLAYERS TO WATCH

  Manchester United – Bruno Fernandes

  United captain Bruno Fernandes has had more shots without scoring than any other Premier League player this season (17). Meanwhile, only Southampton's Cameron Archer (2.3) and Bournemouth's Evanilson (2) have amassed a higher xG figure without finding the net so far than Fernandes (1.9).

  The Portugal international has, however, been involved in at least nine more attacking sequences (30 – 17 shots, six chances created, seven build-ups to a shot) than any of his team-mates this term (Diogo Dalot is second with 21).

  Tottenham – Son Heung-min

  Son's involvement in this game has been called into question after appearing to suffer an injury against Qarabag, but Postecoglou was understandably quick to play it down.

  The South Korean is likely to be key, having created more chances from open play than any other player in the Premier League this season (13). 

  Son has also had a hand in five goals in his last seven league appearances against Manchester United, scoring four and assisting one.

• Simeone praises Atleti defence but wants more firepower

  Atletico Madrid coach Diego Simeone was pleased with his team's defensive performance as they beat Celta Vigo in LaLiga on Thursday, but he knows they must create more chances.

  Atletico managed to keep another clean sheet to consolidate their status as the best defensive side in the competition, conceding only three goals in seven games this season.

  At the other end, Simeone's men only managed two shots on target and generated just 0.62 expected goals (xG) to the hosts' 1.53 xG, but Julian Alvarez's late goal inflicted Celta's first home defeat in seven months.

  "Today we took the three points with great defensive patience against opponents who haven't lost since February," Simeone told reporters.

  "We've been working well, but we need to improve our attacking. In the first half we performed well in defence but we didn't create opportunities to put our players in front of goal.

  "There's a defensive performance that is much better, we still haven't found that area where we can play better offensively."

   

  The Argentine was, however, delighted with the performances of Alvarez, Angel Correa and midfielder Rodrigo Riquelme, all of whom made an impact off the bench.

  "In the second half the substitutions made us better, Rodrigo Riquelme, Julian, Correa... they were feeding us more in a game where both sides looked like they were going to have chances," Simeone said.

  "Luckily, in the end [Antoine] Griezmann and Julian found each other."

  Atletico host city rivals Real Madrid in LaLiga on Sunday, having taken 15 points from seven matches to trail Los Blancos by two points and leaders Barcelona by six.

• Gilbert eyes strong JPL run after goalless stalemate with Real Hope confirms Caribbean Cup exit

  Arnett Gardens Head Coach Xavier Gilbert was left with a mixed bag of emotions following his team’s goalless draw against Haitian club Real Hope in their Group A Concacaf Caribbean Cup encounter.

  While pleased with their usual attacking intent and defensive resilience, which earned them their first point of the tournament, Gilbert admitted that he would have liked to secure all three points in the heated affair at the National Stadium on Wednesday to keep their semi-final hopes alive.

  The “Junglists” were more threatening in open play and felt they should have won the contest as they had a goal ruled out for offside, while a penalty call, which should have gone their way, was not given.

  As such, the result left them rooted at the bottom of the group on a point, as Cavalier (six points), Real Hope (five points), Police FC (four points), and Mount Pleasant FA (three points) remain in contention for the top two spots to the semis.

  With one game to come against Mount Pleasant on October 3, Gilbert is hoping they can secure a win to cap off what he described as a valuable experience for the team in the regional competition.

  “Honestly, it’s a bit of a bittersweet feeling; I think it was a tough encounter, but I can fault the guys for trying. I’m happy that the team showed great effort and fight, but decision-making in the final third could have been better,” Gilbert told Sportsmax.TV.

  

   

  “On the other hand, I thought we were just unlucky to not get the full points last night, especially in the way some calls went against us, but that's the way it is, sometimes we get them and sometimes we don't. We came into this game hoping to get the victory, but we were just a bit short in the final third,” he added.

  Despite the shortfall, Gilbert highlighted the positives of the Caribbean Cup campaign and believes the team has gained crucial exposure and experience testing themselves against regional opponents. This, he said, will serve them well for the remainder of the Jamaica Premier League (JPL) season.

  “We fight on nonetheless; we are happy for the exposure that we got at this level, and hopefully we can use this as a catalyst to do well in the local league and make it back here next season because these are the types of tournaments we need to be involved in more often,” he explained.

  “Playing teams from across the Caribbean pushes us to raise our level and exposes the areas we need to improve. The intensity and quality are slightly different from what we face locally, and the players have to adapt quickly. It’s an experience we’ll definitely build on going forward,” he noted.

  

  With the JPL season already in full swing and Arnett Gardens, Gilbert has already shifting his focus to ensuring that his team come out stronger for their next encounter against promoted Racing United on Sunday.

  The CFU Club Shield winning coach believes the lessons learned in the Caribbean Cup can propel the team to a successful domestic season, which would, in turn, put them back in contention for another crack at the regional tournament next year.

  Arnett Gardens currently sit second on the JPL standings on three points from their opening 3-0 win over Dunbeholden FC.

  “We have to take what we’ve learned here (in the Caribbean Cup) and channel it into our JPL campaign. The goal now is to be consistent, play good football, and secure one of those top spots to qualify for the Caribbean Cup again. This tournament has given us a taste of what’s possible, and I’m confident we’ll be better equipped next time around.” Gilbert stated confidently.

  

  The tactician is counting on his team’s mix of experienced campaigners and emerging talents to continue growing and improving as they look to reclaim domestic glory. He also expressed gratitude to the club’s fans for their unwavering support throughout the tournament and promised that they would see a revitalized Arnett Gardens as the JPL season progresses.

  “We’re going back to the drawing board with a renewed focus and determination,” he said.

  “The fans deserve nothing but our best effort, and we’re committed to making sure we’re back in the Caribbean Cup next year and, more importantly, compete for titles,” Gilbert ended.