EPL

The Numbers Game: Can Arsenal handle Rice absence in derby clash with Tottenham?

By Sports Desk September 12, 2024

The Premier League is back following the first international break of the season, and Sunday's headline fixture looks to be worth the wait as Tottenham host Arsenal.

The first North London Derby of the campaign comes after disappointing results for both sides on matchday three, with Arsenal losing early ground on Manchester City and Liverpool as they were held to a 1-1 draw by Brighton.

Ange Postecoglou's Spurs, meanwhile, were beaten 2-1 at Newcastle United, leaving them three points behind their rivals in the early-season standings.

What can we expect as these North London heavyweights go head-to-head for local bragging rights at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium?

By diving into the Opta data, we can bring you all the best pre-match facts, figures and storylines.

What's expected?

Arsenal have had the upper hand in the North London Derbies of late, and the Opta supercomputer makes them slight favourites despite the absence of home advantage.

They were victorious in 40% of the supercomputer's 10,000 pre-match simulations, with Tottenham triumphing in 34.1% and the remaining 26% finishing all square. 

Arsenal have won their last two Premier League away games against Tottenham, as many as in their previous 17 such visits (six draws and nine defeats). They last won three consecutive away North London Derbies between January 1987 and September 1988.

Draws have been a rarity at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, which has seen the lowest percentage of draws (9%, 9/101) of any ground in Premier League history, so perhaps we should not expect the spoils to be shared. 

When will Tottenham stop being Spursy?

The adjective 'Spursy' is not one any team wishes to be tagged with, coming to denote a side that flatters to deceive and ultimately falls short of expectations.

Postecoglou has made no secret of his desire to cast that perception aside and make Tottenham true contenders, but their start to 2024-25 has thrown up several familiar themes.

Spurs were utterly dominant on matchday one but could not hold onto a 1-0 lead at newly promoted Leicester City, starting their second straight season under Postecoglou with an underwhelming draw.

After routing hapless Everton, they were then beaten 2-1 at Newcastle despite firing off 20 shots to the hosts' nine, also enjoying 65.7% possession and playing almost as many passes in the final third (235) as Newcastle did overall (261). 'Spursy' indeed.

 

The North London Derby is a fixture in which Tottenham have struggled lately, losing five of their last seven Premier League meetings with Arsenal (one win and one draw).

That is more defeats than they suffered in their previous 16 against their rivals (six wins, six draws and four defeats).

These fixtures have so often been an acid test of Spurs' resilience, and they must improve their defending for a matchup that has not featured many clean sheets lately. 

Arsenal versus Tottenham has seen both teams score more often than any other fixture in Premier League history (43 times), while it is also the fixture to see the team who scored first fail to win more often than any other (29 times, 19 draws and 10 losses).

Can Gunners replace Rice?

There was much for Mikel Arteta to be frustrated about as Arsenal dropped their first points of the campaign last time out, squandering a 1-0 lead in a 1-1 draw with Brighton.

But it could be that the sending-off of Rice, who received a second yellow card for kicking the ball away early in the second half, proves more of an inconvenience than the result.

The first red card of Rice's Premier League career – coming on his 245th appearance in the competition – has handed Arteta a major selection dilemma in the engine room.

 

Rice started 37 of the Gunners' 38 Premier League games last season, appearing as a substitute in the other. It is often said that availability is the best ability, and Rice's 3,230 Premier League minutes in 2023-24 were only bettered by eight other outfielders – team-mate William Saliba (with a full 3,420) among them.

With Rice patrolling the midfield, Arsenal were a picture of control last season, giving up the joint-fourth fewest fast breaks in the Premier League (23) and the joint-fifth fewest shots from fast breaks (20).

Thomas Partey and Jorginho, the men likely to be tasked with holding the fort, will come up against a Spurs side with plenty of pace in transition, and the likes of Son Heung-min, Wilson Odobert and Brennan Johnson will be desperate to exploit his absence.

Tottenham scored three goals from 25 fast breaks in Premier League action last term, finding the net every 8.3 fast breaks on average – only eight teams netted from such situations at a greater frequency.

Rice did much to help Arsenal build the Premier League's most fearsome defence last term, and they approach Sunday's game with eight shutout victories in their last 10 away league games (nine wins, one draw).

Elsewhere, captain Martin Odegaard is a doubt after sustaining an injury on international duty with Norway, with their absences potentially handing Spurs a golden opportunity.

PLAYERS TO WATCH 

Tottenham – Son Heung-min

Tottenham skipper Son has scored eight goals against Arsenal in all competitions. In the history of the fixture, only Harry Kane (14), Emmanuel Adebayor (10) and Bobby Smith (10) have netted more North London Derby goals than the South Korean.

Seven of Son's North London Derby goals have come in the Premier League, with no other current Spurs player boasting more than two strikes against the Gunners in the competition.

Arsenal – Bukayo Saka

Saka scored home and away goals against Tottenham in the Premier League last season. The only previous Arsenal players to score in three or more consecutive North London Derby appearances in the competition are Emmanuel Adebayor (five between 2006 and 2008) and Robert Pires (four between 2002 and 2004).

Saka has also been involved in more attacking sequences than any other Arsenal player in the Premier League this term (22 – 10 shots, seven chances created and five build-up involvements), scoring once against Wolves on matchday one.

 

Related items

  • St. Benedict’s College defeats Fatima College 3-1 in SSFL top-of-the-table clash St. Benedict’s College defeats Fatima College 3-1 in SSFL top-of-the-table clash

    St. Benedict’s College secured a 3-1 win over Fatima College in a top-of-the-table clash in Secondary Schools Football League (SSFL) Premiership action at the Mahaica Sporting Complex.

    Goals from Captain Derrel Garcia in the 42nd and 59th minutes and a third from Ethan Trotman in the 80th secured the win and allowed them to move to 19 points from seven matches, three ahead of Fatima who have a game in hand.

    Micaiah Leach gave Fatima the lead in the 30th minute.

    Elsewhere, Arima North Secondary defeated San Juan North 2-1 at Bourg Mulatrasse. Micha’el John gave Arima the lead in the 42nd minute before Lindell Sween got the equalizer for San Juan North just a minute later.

    Jahmarley Caleb got the winner for Arima North ten minutes from full time. The win moved Arima North up to fourth in the table with 14 points from eight games while San Juan remain in ninth with nine points from their eight outings.

    A Kristian James 66th minute goal gave St. Mary’s College a 1-0 win over East Mucurapo Secondary at Mucurapo Road.

    Presentation College got the biggest win of the day, a 5-0 victory over Speyside High at Mannie Ramjohn Stadium.

    Thanks to goals from Vaughn Clement, Cody Cooper, Isaiah Jacob, Caleb Boyce and Duhrell Young, Presentation are now third in the table with 16 points from seven games. Speyside have four points from just five games to lie second from bottom at 15th.

    Hosts Signal Hill Secondary suffered a 1-2 defeat at the hands of Queen’s Royal College. Kyle James got the goal for Signal Hill while the QRC goals came from Teshaun Franklin and an own goal from Raevion Marshall.

    QRC are fifth in the standings with 13 points from eight games while Signal Hill are 11th with eight points from seven games.

    In the day’s other games, St. Anthony College beat Miracle Ministries Pentecostal High School 3-1 at Westmoorings while a 12th minute Sumba Cudjoe strike gave St. Augustine Secondary a 1-0 win over Trinity College East at Trincity.

  • Calabar edge STATHS 1-0 to assume pole position in Zone D of Manning Cup; reigning champions Clarendon College among winners in dCup Calabar edge STATHS 1-0 to assume pole position in Zone D of Manning Cup; reigning champions Clarendon College among winners in dCup

    Calabar High School regained pole position in Zone D of the Inter-secondary Schools Sports Association (ISSA)/Digicel Manning Cup following a 1-0 win over St Andrew Technical (STATHS) in a top-of-the-table clash at their Red Hills Road base on Saturday.

    Jaheim Rankine got the all-important strike in the 34th minute to extend their unbeaten run across five matches and push Calabar up to 16 points, same as STATHS, who were relegated to second with a slightly inferior goal difference. Haile Selassie (nine points), Camperdown (seven points), Vauxhall (six points) and Kingston Technical (zero point) complete the standings.

    Winning coach Andrew Price welcomed the character shown by his team on this occasion to overturn their first leg loss, as players occupied unfamiliar position.

    “The players are resilient; we played today without two of frontline central defenders so we had to patch up the team today and people played in positions that they don’t normally play in. But we have a system that we have been playing for the entire season and once people fit into the system, then the team will play well and they showed some depth and character today to get the three points against a very good STATHS team,” Price said.

    “I think we needed to be a bit more clinical in front of goal, but our strength is our defensive structure; we have only conceded two goals so far in the entire Manning Cup, which shows that we are very sound defensively, and we want to keep it that way. We are developing a football culture here at the school and we are going to continue to work diligently to ensure that we get some success along the line,” he added.

    STATHS started more purposefully and created a few half chances in the early exchanges as the teams battled heavy underfoot conditions due to afternoon showers.

    The Bumper Hall-based team should have broken the deadlock approaching the 20th minute mark but Ajetai Marshall muffed his effort from close range.

    Calabar got into their rhythm and went close to finding the lead at the half-hour mark, but Rankin’s left-footed shot from a distance was parried by Jaheem Williams in goal for STATHS.

    It is often said if you fail to succeed try again, and Rankine did just that to put Calabar in front as he released an even more delightful strike from about 30 yards out that had Williams beaten all ends up.

    Calabar went close to doubling their advantage in 41st, but Williams got down well to his right on this occasion to steer Jayden Perry’s left-footed shot from outside the 18-yard box wide.

    With the score unchanged at the break, STATHS made a push for the equaliser but failed to create any meaningful chances, and frustration inevitably set in, resulting in Alexavier Gooden being sent off for a second yellow in the 54th.

    The numerical advantage created a few openings for Calabar, the best of which came in the 61st Rankine, who rounded the goalkeeper but selfishly went for shot from a tight angle instead of floating a cross in for Perry.

    As the game approached its end, substitute Christiano Brown thought he stole a point for STATHS when she slid one through the goalkeeper’s legs, but the goal was belatedly flagged for an offside.

    That left Head coach Phillip Williams disgusted as he called out the officiating as the worst part of the encounter.

    “It is unfortunate that ISSA has invested so much and the schools have invested so much and the poor officiating just takes away from the game. I think that was the worst thing today; both teams played some decent football but the officiating needs to be better.

    “I think what we didn’t do today was score, we have a style of football that we play and we played that today even when we went down a man but referees need to be better in Jamaica, they are very poor,” a disappointed Williams said.

    Saturday’s Manning Cup Results

    Calabar 1, STATHS 0

    Dunoon Park 0, Eltham 0

    Ardenne High 0, Hydel High 8

    Ascot High 0, Jamaica College 5

    Excelsior High 15, Pembroke Hall 0

    Holy Trinity 0, St George’s College 5

    Camperdown 0, Vauxhall 0

    Saturday’s daCosta Cup Results

    Munro 0, Maggotty 0

    Manchester 1, Belair 0

    Glenmuir 4, Old Harbour 0

    Ocho Rios 8, Ferncourt 1

    Anchovy 1, Green Island 2

    McGrath 0, Dinthill 0

    Maldon High 4, St James 1

    Irwin High 1, Cornwall College 4

    Green Pond 5, Herbert Morrison 2

    Grange Hill 0, Godfrey Stewart 1

    Mannings 6, Little London 0

    Muschett 0, Cedric Titus 13

    Spot Valley 0, William Knibb 0

    Happy Grove 2, Morant Bay 0

    Tacius Golding 0, Charlemont 3

    Cross Keys 1, DeCarteret College 5

    Newell 0, Lacovia 1

    B.B Coke 1, STETHS 3

    Claude McKay 0, Clarendon College 7

    Central 2, Edwin Allen 1

    Knockalva 0, Frome Tech 8

    Cambridge 1, Rusea’s High 3

  • Toronto FC 0-1 Inter Miami: Campana's stoppage-time strike keeps visitors on track for MLS record Toronto FC 0-1 Inter Miami: Campana's stoppage-time strike keeps visitors on track for MLS record

    Leonardo Campana scored the winner in stoppage time to keep Inter Miami on course to beat the regular-season points record in MLS as they defeated Toronto 1-0.

    With Miami having secured the Supporters' Shield by beating the Columbus Crew in midweek, Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez were benched for Saturday's trip north of the border.

    But the duo came on to help Gerardo Martino's team to a victory that moved them up to 71 points with one game remaining. 

    The points record of 73 was set by the New England Revolution in 2021, and it is the Revs who visit Miami in the final regular-season game later in October.

    Toronto got off to the better start as Kobe Franklin latched onto the end of Jonathan Osario's cross to shoot from a tight angle but saw his effort saved.

    Despite further chances for Richie Laryea and Prince Osei Owusu, Toronto struggled to find a breakthrough, and substitute Suarez proved decisive as he delivered a first-time cross into the centre of the box, which Campana controlled and duly fired home a 93rd-minute winner.

    The defeat dealt Toronto a blow to their ambitions of obtaining a playoff spot this season, opening the door for the Philadelphia Union, D.C. United and Nashville SC behind them in the Eastern Conference.

    Data Debrief: Miami's stopping power

    For Miami, the focus on adding an MLS record to their first Supporters' Shield triumph has seemingly helped keep them going this term. They have scored 15 goals in the last 15 minutes of the second half this season; only the Colorado Rapids and Portland Timbers have scored more such goals in the league in 2024.

    On the other hand, Toronto have conceded 23 goals in the last 15 minutes of the second half - no team has conceded more in MLS this term.

    Toronto have taken just one point from the last 15 on offer, and their slump has come at the worst possible time.

© 2024 SportsMaxTV All Rights Reserved.