Numbers Game: Ex-Irish international Carsley out to prove England credentials in Dublin

By Sports Desk September 06, 2024

England will play their first match without Gareth Southgate in the dugout when they take on the Republic of Ireland.

Southgate quit his post in the wake of England's 2-1 defeat to Spain in the final of Euro 2024 in July.

That ended a hugely successful eight-year stint for Southgate when it came to turning around the fortunes of the Three Lions, and restoring England's pride in the national team.

Yet for all the promise and potential, England could not get over the line when it truly mattered, falling short in two Euros finals, and a World Cup semi-final.

England had endured a miserable Nations League campaign before their exploits in Germany, and in hindsight, it showed that perhaps Southgate's magic was wearing off.

Now in League B, having been relegated from League A, England's first match after Southgate sees them face an old rival, as former Ireland international Lee Carsley aims to prove his credentials to the Football Association (FA).

Having won last year's Under-21 Euros, Carsley will surely be hoping he can follow in Southgate's footsteps in transferring from the youth set up to the senior side.

Here, using Opta data, we delve into the key talking points ahead of Saturday's clash in Dublin.

What's expected?

It's always hard to fully gauge what a team will look like under a new manager, especially in international football. 

That being said, while we do not quite know what Carsley's England will look like, we can be sure that they are the favourites for this one, with Opta's supercomputer handing them a 70.4% win probability.

Ireland, on the other hand, have been given just a 13.2% win likelihood, while the threat of a draw is 16.5%.

This is England's first game without Southgate in charge since a 1-0 win over Slovakia in September 2016 in Sam Allardyce's one and only game.

Including caretakers, only four managers have lost their first game in charge of the Three Lions: Alf Ramsey (2-5 vs France in 1963), Howard Wilkinson (0-2 vs France in 1999), Peter Taylor (0-1 vs Italy in 2000) and Stuart Pearce (2-3 vs Netherlands at the 2012 Olympics when coaching Team GB).

It is fair to say Carsley, who played 40 times for Ireland between 1997 and 2008, has history on his side. Will he continue those strong records?

New blood

Carsley, as expected, freshened up his squad with some new faces. Angel Gomes, Morgan Gibbs-White, Tino Livramento and Noni Madueke all made the cut.

Gomes, Gibbs-White and Madueke made 50 appearances combined for Carsley in the U21s, so it is not a huge surprise to see the trio given a shot, while Livramento has usurped Kieran Trippier, who has now retired from international football, at Newcastle United this season.

At last year's U21 Euros, Carsley's team scored 11 goals in six games, outperforming their 8.5 expected goals (xG) and, despite not dominating possession, averaging 56.4%, they scored the most build-up goals at the tournament (seven) - a build-up goal is an open play sequence that features 10+ passes and ends in a goal.

Given England performed so poorly, relative to the quality at their disposal, in attack at Euro 2024, perhaps Carsley's approach can help get the best out of that star-studded frontline, albeit Phil Foden, Ollie Watkins and Cole Palmer have all withdrawn from the squad.

Indeed, England have scored just 13 goals in 11 games in 2024, having netted 26 in 10 games in 2023. Their 2024 average of 1.2 goals per game is their lowest in a year since 2000 (exactly one per game, 11 goals in 11 games), so Carsley has a relatively low bar to improve on.

What about the defence, though? Southgate was a pragmatic manager, and in fairness, England only allowed 7.3 xG against through their seven matches at Euro 2024.

However, they have shipped the opening goal in each of their last four matches, all in the knockout stages in Germany (W2 D1 L1). The Three Lions have not conceded the opener in five games in a row since between November 1953 and June 1954.

And going back to that U21 Euros, Carsley's side did not concede a single goal, albeit the xGA metric suggests they should have conceded at least seven.

While the fresh faces in England's squad will be looking to stake a claim, Jack Grealish has been handed a reprieve after missing out on Euro 2024. And, right at the top of the pitch, there is the experience and world-class finishing ability of Harry Kane, who is closing in on his 100th cap - should he play in Dublin, that will be appearance number 99 for his country.

 

Ireland's new era

It is not just Carsley that is making his bow in the dugout on Saturday. Heimir Hallgrimsson is Ireland's new boss, with the former Jamaica and Iceland coach having been appointed earlier in the summer.

Hallgrimsson has previous with England, of course. He was in joint charge of Iceland when they knocked Roy Hodgson's Three Lions out of Euro 2016.

The only manager to defeat England with two different nations is Bora Milutinovic, in 1985 with Mexico and in 1993 with the United States.

And what better way to start a new era than a big win over a big rival?

This is the first time Ireland will host England since a goalless draw in a friendly in June 2015. In a competitive match, it is the first time since a November 1990 European Championship qualifier, drawn 1-1 with Tony Cascarino cancelling out David Platt's opener for the Three Lions.

England also won their last meeting with Ireland in November 2020 – they have not won consecutive games against them since doing so with wins in 1980 and 1985.

Ireland last beat England in 1995, though the sides have only met each other three times since, with two draws and one win for England: that 3-0 triumph in 2020.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Republic of Ireland - Evan Ferguson

Ferguson could not quite get going last season after a bright start for Brighton, but he is still one of the Premier League's most exciting youngsters.

The striker is Ireland's big hope going forward and will be out to make his mark against one of the best teams in the world.

 

England - Harry Kane

Kane ranks 10th on the all-time list of England caps and has made 85 starts, playing 7,616 minutes, directly contributing to 83 goals (66 goals – an England record – and 17 assists). He averages 0.78 goals per 90, and 0.98 goal contributions per 90.

Indeed, Kane averages a goal every 115 minutes for his country, and he will surely be the key man for Carsley as the interim manager looks to capitalise on this audition.

Related items

  • Deschamps ready for criticism after 'light went out' in Italy defeat Deschamps ready for criticism after 'light went out' in Italy defeat

    Didier Deschamps is prepared to face the critics after France kickstarted their Nations League campaign with a 3-1 defeat to Italy on Friday. 

    Bradley Barcola handed the hosts a lead with just 12 seconds on the clock, only for the Azzurri to respond to secure their first victory over France at the Parc des Princes.

    After scoring just once from open play at Euro 2024, Les Bleus failed to trouble Gianluigi Donnarumma, with only three of their 12 shots in the encounter on target, all of which came in the first 45 minutes.

    France registered an expected goals (xG) total of 0.86 compared to Italy's 1.71, with Kylian Mbappe enduring another difficult night in front of goal. 

    Despite winning both the World Cup and the Nations League during his time in charge, Deschamps is ready for criticism, having previously come under fire in Germany.

    “I am accustomed to criticism, even if I won more than lost in my career," Deschamps said.

    "I knew our fitness levels were not at the best, but it is a young squad with Olise and Manu Kone getting their senior debuts. These are the necessary steps to grow.

    “I have always been clear-eyed on what we were doing. Unfortunately, in terms of intensity and physicality, Italy did more than us.

    “It irritates me that our first 20 minutes were so good and then the light went out.”

    Despite starting well, France failed to find that attacking spark that many have feared on the international stage in recent years. 

    With the likes of Mbappe, Antoine Griezmann and Marcus Thuram all experienced in the senior side, it was Barcola, on his sixth start for his country, who shone. 

    He contributed an expected goals (xG) total of 0.45 to France's total, registering more shots (three) than anyone for Les Bleus.

    But speaking after the game, Deschamps praised Italy's stern defensive showing, acknowledging his side's quick start was difficult to maintain.

    “We had started so well, scoring the goal and putting good pressure on Italy," Deschamps told RAI Sport.

    "It’s tough to keep that high press and intensity up, even before half-time I saw a physical dip. We made mistakes, which allowed Italy to equalise.

    “In trying that high press, we opened up spaces and Italy hurt us with attacking players who pushed up. Without a solid block, it became very difficult for us.

    "Italy defend very well and we have great attacking players, but you have to be wary leaving those spaces or they’ll hurt you in return.”

  • The best is yet to come from Wales, says Bellamy after Turkiye stalemate The best is yet to come from Wales, says Bellamy after Turkiye stalemate

    Craig Bellamy insisted that there is more to come from his Wales side as his maiden outing as their new head coach ended in a goalless draw against Turkiye. 

    Having seen Aaron Ramsey and Joe Rodon squander golden opportunities early on, Bellamy thought his side had netted the first goal of his tenure in the 37th minute.

    Ramsey's searching ball picked out Sorba Thomas behind the Turkiye defence before lobbing the ball over Mert Gunok, only for the offside flag to be raised.

    The hosts played for just under half an hour with a man advantage after Baris Alper Yilmaz was shown a second yellow card for a foul on Neco Williams.

    But Wales were unable to find a breakthrough, and they have now failed to score in four consecutive international matches for the first time since a run of four between February and September 2012. 

    However, Bellamy praised his side's display on home soil, saying: "[The players were] outstanding. We have had a lot of work this week.

    "There have been a lot of meetings and I am always conscious of a lot of information going in at the same time.

    "But they were great this week and that gives you confidence.

    "Believe me, this is the worst we are going to be. The more we learn, the more we spend together, the finer details.

    "It's such a good start but there's much more to come from this team.

    "I am not a master at this after one game, trust me. But I enjoyed it. It was a great country to play against in your first game and I am really happy."

    Wales gave an exciting glimpse of what the future may hold under their new head coach, starting immediatley on the front foot with high-octane new style.

    Having failed to qualify for Euro 2024 under Robert Page, Bellamy's appointment has seemingly galvanised Welsh football once again. 

    His methods faced a stern test against Turkiye, who were one of the standout sides at the European Championships under Vincenzo Montella earlier this year.

    Wales were a threat from set-pieces, with Ramsey going close with a flicked header, while a well worked corner routine was fired over by Rodon. 

    Turkiye did provide a couple of anxious moments, however, with Yilmaz's appeals for a penalty waved away after tussling with Rodon inside the penalty area.

    Having seen his goal ruled out in the first half, Thomas again went close after the break, with Harry Wilson's curling effort narrowly evading the far post. 

    While there was to be no winning start for Bellamy, there was also a nod to the future. 

    18-year-old Lewis Koumas made his home international debut, coming 15 years and 162 days since his father, Jason Koumas, made his last home appearance for Wales in a 2-0 defeat against Finland in March 2009.

  • Belgium 3-1 Israel: De Bruyne double hands Red Devils winning start Belgium 3-1 Israel: De Bruyne double hands Red Devils winning start

    Kevin De Bruyne scored twice either side of half-time to hand Belgium a winning start to their Nations League campaign, beating Israel 3-1 at the Nagyerdei Stadion.

    De Bruyne got the ball rolling with a fine finish early on, only for Timothy Castagne's own goal to level things up on neutral ground in Hungary.

    But the Red Devils rallied after the break, with Belgium's captain scoring from the spot shortly after Youri Tielemans had restored their advantage.

    Belgium took the lead in the 21st minute as Manchester City's Jeremy Doku skipped to the byline before finding his club team-mate De Bruyne, who finished emphatically.

    Despite their dominance, Belgium were pegged back nine minutes before half-time as Anan Khalaili's goal-bound header deflected off Castagne and beyond Koen Casteels. 

    But Tielemans restored their advantage three minutes after the restart, firing into the bottom corner after Lois Openda's neat touch. 

    De Bruyne grabbed his second of the game four minutes later after Openda was fouled by Raz Shlomo inside the box, finishing confidently from 12 yards.

    Belgium were awarded another penalty soon after, with Openda again involved, only for the RB Leipzig striker to step up and see his spot-kick saved by Yoav Gerafi.

    The Red Devils travel to Lyon on Monday to face France, who were beaten 3-1 by Italy in their opening fixture in Group A2.

    Data Debrief: De Bruyne at the double

    While many of Belgium's 'golden generation' have come and gone, De Bruyne proved once again he is still the jewel in the Red Devils' crown.

    The City midfielder contributed an expected goals (xG) tally of 1.64 to Belgium's 3.53 total, also playing more passes in the final third (34) than any other player on the pitch. 

    He also created two big chances for his team-mates, with his 10 touches in the opposition box a total only bettered by Doku (11) for the hosts.

© 2024 SportsMaxTV All Rights Reserved.