Arsenal made a solid start to their latest Premier League title challenge last week, beating Wolves 2-0 at the Emirates Stadium with goals from Kai Havertz and Bukayo Saka.
Matchday two, however, promises to present a far tougher challenge for Mikel Arteta's team as they face the team that could be considered responsible for their failure to finish as champions in 2023-24.
Aston Villa – under former Arsenal boss Unai Emery – beat the Gunners home and away last term, with April's 2-0 win at the Emirates allowing Manchester City to inch ahead at the top of the table and claim a fourth straight title.
Villa also started with a win last week, with Jhon Duran stepping off the bench to fire them to a 2-1 victory at West Ham.
Ahead of Saturday's headline clash at Villa Park, we run through all the best Opta facts and stats around the game.
What's expected?
The Opta supercomputer makes Arsenal favourites for victory on matchday two, though not overwhelmingly.
Across 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the supercomputer, Arsenal were victorious in 51.1% of cases. Villa repeated last season's heroics against the Gunners in 24.7% of scenarios, while 24.2% saw the points shared.
Villa's double over the Gunners last term accounted for 40% of the Premier League defeats suffered by Arteta's team (2/5). They have recorded three straight Premier League wins against them on two previous occasions, in November 1993 and February 2021.
In fact, Villa have won five of their last nine Premier League meetings with Arsenal (four defeats), keeping a clean sheet in every victory.
That is as many wins as they had managed in their previous 46 league matches against the Gunners (14 draws, 27 defeats).
Arsenal, though, have won 14 away Premier League games against the Villans, their joint-most wins at a single away venue in the competition, having also triumphed 14 times at Crystal Palace's Selhurst Park.
The Gunners have also scored 98 Premier League goals against Villa in total, only netting more against Everton (124), West Ham (109) and Tottenham (105). Liverpool and Manchester United (five opponents each) are the only teams to have netted 100 or more Premier League goals against more different clubs.
Watkins to cause more Arsenal woe?
Villa may have made a winning start to their campaign, spoiling Julen Lopetegui's West Ham debut with an entertaining win at the London Stadium, but Emery will be looking for a more convincing performance this time out.
Only Liverpool (2.65 versus Ipswich Town) created a higher expected goals (xG) figure than West Ham's 2.46 on matchday one of the Premier League season, albeit 0.78 of that figure came from a Lucas Paqueta penalty – perhaps harshly awarded against Matty Cash.
Of the 11 teams to give up the most expected goals against (xGA) in the division last weekend, Villa were the only one to taste victory – Brentford were the next-most porous victors, allowing Crystal Palace 1.17 xG in a 2-1 win on Sunday.
Villa will need a far better defensive display if they are to stifle Arsenal on Saturday, while they will also be desperate to get more service to Ollie Watkins, who did not attempt a single shot before his 62nd-minute withdrawal versus the Hammers.
Watkins only registered two touches in the West Ham area, one fewer than his replacement Duran, also recording the fewest touches (15), passes attempted (five) and completed (four) of all 22 starters.
Facing an Arsenal side likely to press high and leave space in behind could suit Watkins, though, as he plays his way back into peak condition after helping England reach the Euro 2024 final.
Watkins capped April's 2-0 win at the Emirates with a delightfully dinked finish that put Arsenal on the back foot in the title race, his fifth goal in eight Premier League meetings with the Gunners.
He has been on the winning side in four of those eight games (four losses), and only against Brighton and Hove Albion (six) has he scored more top-flight goals than he has versus Arsenal. The visiting defence must be wary.
Solid spine key for the Gunners?
Villa are the only team to beat Arsenal in the Premier League in 2024, with Arteta's team winning 17 of their 19 games this calendar year (one draw, one loss). In English Football League history, the most wins ever recorded by a team through their first 20 matches in a year is 18, by Liverpool in 1982 and Man City in 2019 and 2021.
The Gunners have been particularly impressive on the road, winning on eight of nine Premier League road trips (one draw) in 2024, scoring 28 goals, conceding three and keeping seven clean sheets in that time.
Arsenal only allowed opponents to create a total of 5.89 xG in those matches, an average of 0.65 per game. The league's next-best ever-present defensive team this year, Man City, have given up 12.39 xGA in 10 road trips.
In the last two seasons, the Gunners have kept 21 away clean sheets (10 in 2022-23, 11 in 2023-24), more than they managed in their previous four campaigns combined (20).
If they can maintain similar levels of solidity in 2024-25 – particularly on their travels – then another title tilt appears a realistic goal.
Arsenal did endure some shaky spells against Wolves last time out, with Jorgen Strand Larsen and Matheus Cunha guilty of passing up huge chances to level when Gary O'Neil's team built up a head of steam, but the Gunners gave up just 0.47 xGA – the fifth-lowest figure of any team on matchday one.
Jurrien Timber came on to steady the ship for the Gunners late on after missing the majority of 2023-24 through injury, while new signing Riccardo Calafiori was an unused substitute.
It remains to be seen whether Arteta will introduce either player to his lineup at Villa Park, where Arsenal must be wary of the direct running of Watkins, Leon Bailey and company.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Aston Villa – Jhon Duran
Duran came on to score the winner against West Ham last week, having been linked with the Irons throughout the transfer window.
Among all players to score at least five Premier League goals, Duran has the second-best minutes-per-goal ratio (six goals, one every 103 minutes), behind only Erling Haaland (one every 85 minutes).
Five of his six strikes, meanwhile, have come as a substitute (83%). That is the second-highest ratio by any player to ever score at least five Premier League goals, behind Matt Derbyshire, who scored nine of his 10 goals from the bench.
Arsenal – Bukayo Saka
Saka registered a goal and an assist in Arsenal's victory over Wolves last week, also creating the joint-most chances (three) of any player on the pitch. He has now been on the winning side in 99 of his 171 Premier League matches with Arsenal.
Another victory would make him the fourth player to reach 100 wins in the competition before turning 23, after Wayne Rooney, Cesc Fabregas and Phil Foden.
The England winger was involved in 11 attacking sequences against Wolves on matchday one, more than any other player on the pitch, ahead of Havertz and Thomas Partey (eight apiece).
St. Louis City v LA Galaxy: Reus sets sights on silverware after dream start
Marco Reus is desperate to bring silverware to the LA Galaxy after making a flying start to his time in MLS, with St. Louis City the destination for his first road game on Sunday.
Reus registered a goal and an assist on debut last week as the Galaxy beat Atlanta United 2-0, maintaining their grip on top spot in the Western Conference.
The Galaxy are five points clear of local rivals Los Angeles FC at the top of the standings ahead of Sunday's trip to St. Louis, who are 13th and 10 points adrift of the playoff picture.
Reus' arrival in Los Angeles has caused plenty of fanfare, but he is focused solely on the team's collective aims.
"It's not about me, it's about the team," he said. "We want to be champions. So we take it game by game.
"Besides the traffic, it's really amazing. The people are so friendly. The weather, it's really nice. When you wake up in the morning and the sun is shining, you start the day differently.
"So I'm really, really happy every morning I come into the dressing room. I'm just happy and excited."
St. Louis played out a thrilling 4-4 draw with the Portland Timbers last week, twice throwing away a two-goal lead to leave interim coach John Hackworth bewildered.
"Really don't know what to say," Hackworth said. "It's hard to imagine coming to a place like this and scoring four goals, being up, and then just losing one-versus-one defensive battles.
"Sometimes, the number of goals you give up, or the number of goals you score, can hide a lot of the transition moments.
"An easy way to prevent some of these defensive miscues from happening is to just be better with the ball."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
St. Louis City – Eduard Lowen
Lowen scored his fourth goal of the MLS season last time out, converting from the penalty spot as St. Louis drew 4-4 with the Timbers.
Only Joao Klauss, with five goals, has outscored him for St. Louis this term.
LA Galaxy – Marco Reus
Reus is one of 20 players in MLS history to record a goal and an assist on his regular-season debut.
He is also the fifth Galaxy player to do so, after Steven Gerrard, Andreas Herzog, Giovani dos Santos and Sasha Victorine. No other team have had more than two players achieve the feat.
MATCH PREDICTION – DRAW
The Galaxy have won 10 of their last 13 regular-season matches, the first time they have done so in a single season since 2011. LA have not recorded 11 wins in a span of 14 matches within a single regular season in the post-shootout era (since 2000).
It would be no surprise to see the points shared in this one, though. All three meetings between St. Louis and the Galaxy have ended level, all with different scorelines (1-1, 2-2, 3-3).
St. Louis have only won one of the last six matches in which they have held the lead in regular-season play dating back to the beginning of June (four draws, one defeat).
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
St. Louis City – 35.8%
LA Galaxy – 38.1%
Draw – 26.1%
Raphinha hails Barcelona after statement win over Valladolid
Barcelona forward Raphinha believes the team have laid down a statement of their intent by starting the season with four straight wins in LaLiga.
Raphinha scored the first hat-trick of his career and also delivered two assists on Saturday, as Barca crushed Real Valladolid 7-0 at Camp Nou.
Hansi Flick's side already possess a four-point cushion at the top of the table after also recording victories over Valencia, Athletic Bilbao and Rayo Vallecano.
Raphinha believes their results have demonstrated the club got things right in the transfer market, telling Movistar: "Today's game has shown that there is no need for anyone else to come. We are very happy because of that.
"We are in very good shape. The team is working hard. Today's result shows what we are working for.
"We saw that the coach was on the sidelines asking for more goals and that's our mentality.
"We are hungry and want to score as many goals as we can. When we are dominant like we have been, the best way to respect our rivals is not taking the foot off the gas."
Raphinha was one of the players who faced criticism during Barca's trophyless 2023-24 campaign and was rumoured to be on his way out ahead of the new season.
The Blaugrana again battled financial restrictions throughout the window, allowing Ilkay Gundogan to leave in order to secure the registration of new arrival Dani Olmo.
With his future now certain, Raphinha is keen to nail down a starting spot and contribute on a regular basis.
"I don't know if today's was my best game, but it's certainly among my best. I will try to play even better and as much as I can," the Brazilian said.
"I'm very happy to be able to help the team. I feel good. I knew that this season would be very important for me. I'm looking for my best version to help my team-mates and be more confident."
Lazio 2-2 Milan: Leao salvages draw but Rossoneri still winless
Rafael Leao came off the bench to earn Milan a 2-2 draw with Lazio at the Stadio Olimpico on Saturday, but Paulo Fonseca's side are still without a Serie A win this season.
Milan were in front at the break through Strahinja Pavlovic's eighth-minute goal, the Serbian rising highest to power home a header from Christian Pulisic's corner.
However, Lazio hit back in the second half with Valentin Castellanos and Boulaye Dia scoring in quick succession.
Nuno Tavares' first-time ball into the centre was met by the unmarked Castellanos to level in the 62nd minute, then Dia tapped another Tavares cutback home to put the Biancocelesti ahead four minutes later.
Fonseca reacted by sending on four substitutes, and those changes had a swift impact as three of them combined for the leveller.
Theo Hernandez – who joined Leao in being dropped from the start – picked out Tammy Abraham, and his lay-off allowed Leao to escape Tavares to fire past Ivan Provedel.
The game was preceded by an emotional tribute to the man who led Lazio to their last league title, Sven-Goran Eriksson, who died at the age of 76 on Monday.
A Lazio shirt bearing the Swede's name was displayed on the home bench, while a banner held up by the home fans read: "You brought us to the top of the world... Have a good trip Mr. Sven."
Data Debrief: Milan's slow start continues
New Milan boss Fonseca is already under pressure after overseeing a return of two points from his first three league games at the helm.
It is the first time the Rossoneri have drawn two of their opening three matches in a Serie A season since 2011-12, when they also drew two and lost one,
They went on to finish second that season, just four points adrift of champions Juventus. If a title challenge is to take place this term, rapid improvements are needed.
SportsMax is the Caribbean sports channel of choice, committed to providing sporting content of the highest quality to the Caribbean, delivered by a team of highly innovative, passionate and qualified professionals.
(876) 619-7629
digitalmedia@sportsmax.tv
