Another new season, another new head coach at Stamford Bridge.
And Enzo Maresca could hardly have been handed a tougher assignment as he leads Chelsea in the Premier League for the first time, with champions Manchester City the visitors to SW6 on Sunday.
It has been another busy off-season for the Blues, with the Todd Boehly regime sanctioning a £161million outlay on nine signings, including Pedro Neto and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall.
City, on the other hand, have been largely quiet as Guardiola continues to put his faith in the group that delivered an unprecedented fourth straight league crown last season.
As two of English football's giants prepare to go head-to-head on the opening weekend of the Premier League season, we dive into the best Opta stats to preview Sunday's clash.
What's expected?
It will come as a surprise to nobody to learn City are overwhelming favourites to defend their title in 2024-25, the Opta supercomputer giving them an 83% chance of topping the pile.
The supercomputer is also firmly on their side ahead of matchday one, with simulations of Sunday's game resulting in City being assigned a 59.6% chance of victory.
City's last trip to Stamford Bridge resulted in what was surely the game of the 2023-24 season, as Cole Palmer scored a last-gasp penalty in a 4-4 draw last November.
The chances of the points being shared again on Sunday are rated at 20.8%, with Chelsea only triumphant in 19.6% of scenarios.
The Blues are winless in their last six Premier League meetings with City, recording two draws and four defeats since Thomas Tuchel led them to a 2-1 victory at the Etihad Stadium in May 2021.
That result was swiftly followed by another victory in the 2021 Champions League final, but City have since gone unbeaten through nine meetings with Chelsea in all competitions (seven wins, two draws), the joint-longest run without defeat against the Blues in their history (also nine between 1936 and 1949).
This will be the first time Chelsea have opened a top-flight campaign against the reigning champions since 1971-72, when they were beaten 3-0 by Arsenal at Highbury.
City, meanwhile, have made a habit of starting quickly in recent years, winning their opening match in 12 of the last 13 Premier League seasons, the only exception being a 1-0 loss at Tottenham in August 2021.
Maresca thrown in at the deep end
Maresca is set to become the fourth Chelsea boss to face the defending champions in his first Premier League game at the helm, with none of the previous three starting with a win.
Claudio Ranieri oversaw a 3-3 draw with Manchester United in September 2000, Avram Grant's tenure started with a 2-0 defeat to the Red Devils in September 2007, and Rafael Benitez's Blues held City to a goalless draw on his November 2012 bow.
Despite leading Leicester City to the Championship title with an impressive haul of 97 points last season, Maresca – who previously served as manager of City's Elite Development Squad in 2020-21 – was a somewhat left-field appointment by Boehly. Banking some early credit – something Mauricio Pochettino failed to do – could prove crucial.
As a coach straight out of the Guardiola school, Maresca is expected to instil a heavy pressing, possession-based style in West London. The question is how quickly his Chelsea players will take to it.
Pochettino's Chelsea only lost one of their final 15 Premier League games last season (nine wins, five draws), including winning their last five in a row, yet their players have found themselves on another tactical crash-course in pre-season, which included a 4-2 defeat to City in Columbus, Ohio.
Many members of Chelsea's bloated first-team squad should be suited to Maresca's demands, though. The Blues averaged 12.2 pressed sequences per game in the Premier League last season, compared to Leicester's 11.3 in the Championship under Maresca, also forcing 9.0 high turnovers per 90 minutes to the Foxes' 7.9.
Sunday's game may not offer a perfect representation of what is to come under the Italian, though, with City likely to dictate proceedings.
If Maresca is willing to tweak his approach, there could be joy to be had on the counter-attack, and new £51.4million winger Neto could relish coming up against City's high line.
The former Wolves man travelled 14.53 metres per carry in the Premier League last season, ranking third in the division behind Chiedozie Ogbene (15.13) and Anthony Elanga (14.54).
Only 12 players, meanwhile, managed more assist-ending carries than Neto's three, despite the jet-heeled winger being limited to just 1,518 Premier League minutes by injury. City will have to be on their toes if he makes his debut.
Will City be without Rodri?
City ended last season by winning nine straight league matches by two goals or more, the longest such run in their Premier League history, with their final three victories all coming against London clubs (4-0 versus Fulham, 2-0 against Tottenham, 3-1 versus West Ham).
While Phil Foden claimed the Premier League's Player of the Season prize after a series of talismanic performances in the run-in, Guardiola's side surely could not have done it without Rodri.
Rodri has taken his all-round game to a new level, scoring eight Premier League goals and adding nine assists last season – both career-high figures – before going on to claim Player of the Tournament honours as Spain won Euro 2024.
Since the start of the 2022-23 season, City have only lost six of the 102 matches they have played with Rodri in their starting lineup, suffering the same number of defeats in just 18 games without the Spaniard during this span.
In the Premier League last term, they boasted a record of 27 wins, seven draws and no defeats when Rodri appeared, but lost three of four games (one win) when he was absent.
City's ability to cope without the 28-year-old could be put to the test on Sunday, however. He did not return to training until Wednesday following his Euro 2024 heroics, making it unlikely – though not impossible – that he will play a full part at Stamford Bridge.
Guardiola's champions did show defensive frailties at times last season, conceding the joint-most goals from fast breaks in the Premier League (seven, alongside Crystal Palace and Brighton and Hove Albion) despite giving up the seventh-fewest fast breaks in total (26).
If Rodri misses out or sees his participation limited on Sunday, City's competitors will be interested to get a look at their midfield depth.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Chelsea – Cole Palmer
Palmer showed his old club what they were missing last season with his last-gasp penalty at Stamford Bridge, one of 33 Premier League goal involvements (22 goals, 11 assists) he recorded in 2023-24 – more than any other player.
Sixteen of his goals came in home games, the joint-most a Chelsea player has ever netted at Stamford Bridge in a single campaign, alongside Didier Drogba in 2006-07 and Frank Lampard in 2009-10.
With Palmer also making a sizeable impact for England at Euro 2024, including coming off the bench to net in their final defeat to Spain, another productive campaign is expected of him.
Manchester City – Erling Haaland
Palmer's fine debut season did not result in a Golden Boot win, though, with Haaland retaining the prize with 27 Premier League goals in 2023-24.
Haaland has 63 goals in 66 Premier League matches since arriving from Borussia Dortmund in 2022, and if his previous opening-day performances are anything to go by, Chelsea should be fearful.
The Norwegian has started both of his Premier League seasons with a matchday-one brace, scoring twice versus West Ham in 2022-23 and Burnley in 2023-24.
He could become the first player in Premier League history to achieve that feat in three different seasons, let alone three in a row.
Gravenberch ready to show off Liverpool form ‘to the world’, says Gakpo
Liverpool’s Cody Gakpo expressed his pride in seeing compatriot Ryan Gravenberch show off his qualities ‘to the whole world’ after a fine start to the Premier League season.
Though the Netherlands pair did not become teammates at Liverpool until late summer of 2023, Gakpo knew well Gravenberch’s talents from their respective Eredivisie spells with PSV Eindhoven and Ajax.
Now in his second season at Anfield, Gravenberch has drawn widespread plaudits for his form in a new deeper-lying midfield role under new head coach Arne Slot, having largely been used as a substitute under Jurgen Klopp.
Gravenberch is the only midfielder in Europe's big-five leagues to both make 30+ tackles (30) and 30+ interceptions (33) in all competitions this season, and Gakpo insisted that his Netherlands team-mate can continue to go from strength to strength, starting against Southampton this Sunday.
“We [the Dutchmen at Liverpool] knew Ryan already from the Eredivisie when he played at Ajax, and I think everybody knew already that he is this good,” Gakpo recently told Men in Blazers.
“After that, he made a move to Bayern Munich, and maybe he didn’t play that much over there, but still everybody in Holland knew how good he could be when he was playing.
“And I think maybe the manager [Slot] also knew this. At the beginning of the season, he put him in a slightly different position, but he gave him the confidence to play there.
“Ryan showed his quality in that position, grabbed his chance as well and turned out to be a good match. He is playing outstandingly for us this season.
“I’m very happy that we can see Ryan, as we Dutchmen already knew, but now he can show it to the whole world. I’m very proud of him.”
Southampton, meanwhile, welcome the Reds to St. Mary’s on the back of a 2-0 defeat to Wolves ahead of the international break, leaving them bottom of the table after 11 games of the season.
The Saints are the lowest scorers in the Premier League this season (seven), while only Crystal Palace (5.1%) have a lower shot conversion rate than Russell Martin’s side (6.2%). Just 30.1% of Southampton’s shots have been on target this term (34/113), a league-low ratio.
However, the Southampton head coach is relishing the opportunity of facing Liverpool, with his players performing well against the likes of Arsenal and Manchester City already this term.
"I'm really excited about Sunday. We're playing the best team in the country at the moment, on their current form and what they have been doing with their manager, built on an incredible foundation from the previous manager, so I'm really looking forward to it,” Martin said.
"I think we showed the guys the Premier League table last season and how much it changed by the end and by the end of December. But it's honestly such an exciting month.
"People talk about the difficulty of the game and every competition we face in the next four or five games, but it's what we all worked so hard for. We should be excited about the challenge.
“I think teams have shown in the last few weeks that you can pick up big results against big teams, good opposition, and we are going to have to. Our level of performance against teams at the top end of the table has been good on the whole."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Southampton – Mateus Fernandes
Fernandes has become a mainstay in the Southampton team, starting the last eight Premier League games in a row, and has been one of Martin’s standout performers in a lacklustre start to the campaign.
In the Saints’ 2-0 defeat to Wolves last time out, the Portuguese contributed a team-high expected goals (xG) tally of 0.22 from his three shots, while only Yukinari Sugawara (10) and Flynn Downes (12) have created more chances in the top-flight than Fernandes (eight) this season.
Liverpool – Mohamed Salah
Salah has both scored and assisted in the same match 35 times in the Premier League (including four already this term), just one shy of Wayne Rooney’s record of 36 games with both a goal and an assist in the competition. The Egyptian has been directly involved in 11 goals (seven goals, four assists) in 11 Premier League appearances against Southampton.
He has also been directly involved in 67% of Liverpool’s Premier League goals this season (14/21 – eight goals, six assists), the highest ratio by a player for any side in the division in 2024-25. Indeed, only Matt Le Tissier for Southampton in 1993-94 (69% - 34/49) has scored or assisted a higher proportion of a side’s goals in a single season in the competition.
MATCH PREDICTION: LIVERPOOL WIN
Liverpool have won nine of their 11 Premier League games under new head coach Slot (D1 L1). A win over Southampton will see the Dutchman become the joint-fastest manager to reach 10 wins from the start of a Premier League career (12 games), alongside Guus Hiddink in May 2009 and Carlo Ancelotti in November 2009 (both with Chelsea).
The Reds’ last Premier League game against the Saints was a 4-4 away draw in May 2023 – they conceded as many goals in that game as they had in their previous six visits to St Mary’s combined.
Southampton have won just one of their last 14 Premier League games against Liverpool (D3 L10), a 1-0 home victory in January 2021.
This will also be the first Premier League match between the side starting the day bottom of the table and the side starting the day top since April 2023, and Southampton’s 3-3 draw away to Arsenal. The league leaders are unbeaten in 14 such matches (W12 D2) since Wolves won 2-1 against Manchester United in February 2011.
However, Southampton have only lost one of their last eight Premier League home games against sides starting the day at the summit (W2 D5) and are unbeaten in their last four (W2 D2 – including a 1-0 win over Liverpool in January 2021) since a 0-1 defeat to Man City in May 2018.
But Martin’s side have lost nine of their 11 Premier League games this season (W1 D1). Only seven sides in English top-flight history have reached 10 defeats in 12 or fewer matches from the start of a campaign, with all seven going on to be relegated.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Southampton – 9.7%
Draw – 12.6%
Liverpool – 77.7%
Taylor proud of 'gritty' Man City display in Hammarby victory
Gareth Taylor was pleased with how his Manchester City players handled the atmosphere against Hammarby to secure their passage into the Champions League quarter-finals.
Khadija Shaw opened the scoring in the 31st minute before Ellen Wangerheim restored parity shortly after the interval with a finish from close range.
But Shaw continued her fine start to the campaign, scoring the winner to become City's all-time top scorer in the competition, surpassing Georgia Stanway and Janine Beckie (both six).
The result saw City make it to the last eight of the competition for the first time since 2021, though the encounter was far from comfortable at the Tele2 Arena on Thursday.
Hammarby ended the contest with an expected goals (xG) total of 2.15 compared to the visitors' 1.07, despite both sides having 14 shots throughout the match.
However, City maintained their unbeaten record against Swedish sides in the competitor (W6), and Taylor was proud of his side's "gritty" display in Stockholm.
“I’m really pleased. It was about qualification for us tonight," Taylor said.
"There were a couple of ways we could do it. Obviously, we knew a point was enough, but I don’t think the players were thinking that way.
“It was a really gritty performance on a really difficult on this pitch. It probably doesn’t look like that for the viewers at home watching it.
"But it was a really lively surface and we worked so hard.
“I felt there were some areas we could control the play better. I have to give credit to Hammarby, they were really aggressive.
"The referee was on our side a little bit in the first half and maybe not in the second.
“I’m really pleased and proud of the players, they really dug in tonight. You come away from a hostile environment with a win.”
Hurtig the hero after late goal sends Arsenal into Champions League quarters
Lina Hurtig's 89th minute winner ensured Arsenal progressed to the quarter-finals of the Women's Champions League after edging Juventus 1-0 on Thursday.
After being frustrated for large parts of the encounter, Hurtig bundled home from close range after Martina Lenzini's poor clearance to book the Gunners' place in the last eight.
Despite Arsenal dominating the early exchanges, it was Juventus who had the first sight of goal, though Eva Schatzer's effort was easy for Daphne van Domselaar to gather.
In a first half that saw just two shots on target, both coming from the visitors, Renee Slegers' substitutes proved to be the difference for Arsenal.
Slegers introduced Beth Mead, Stina Blackstenius and Hurtig late on, with the latter somehow putting Kim Little's cross over the bar from five yards out.
However, the Swede would atone for her earlier error, combining with fellow substitute Blackstenius to net against her former club and send them out of the competition with two group games remaining.
Meanwhile, in Group D, Barcelona edged closer to the quarter-finals of the competition with a convincing 4-1 victory over St. Polten at the Generali Arena.
The reigning champions are still three points behind Manchester City following their 2-1 win over Hammarby, and know a win against the Swedes next month will see them progress.
Kika Nazareth opened the scoring in the 20th minute after capitalising on a mistake by Kamila Dubcova, notching her second nine minutes later from close range.
Barca found themselves three goals up at the break when Vicky Lopez netted her first goal in the competition to put the result beyond doubt.
There was also a landmark moment for Alexia Putellas, who netted her 200th goal for the club with a well-taken effort into the far corner.
Valentina Madl took some of the shine off an otherwise impressive display from the visitors, who have now taken their tally to 20 goals from their four matches in the competition.
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