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• France 'surprised' by Griezmann struggles at Euro 2024, admits Rabiot

  France midfielder Adrien Rabiot admits everyone connected with the team has been "surprised" by Antoine Griezmann's struggles at Euro 2024.

  France will face Spain in a huge semi-final clash in Munich on Tuesday, as they bid to reach their fourth major tournament final under Didier Deschamps.

  However, Les Bleus have been strongly criticised for their failings in front of goal at the tournament, netting just three times from chances worth 8.07 expected goals (xG).

  Their three goals have been two own goals and a Kylian Mbappe penalty, and they are the only team in European Championship history to attempt 50 or more non-penalty shots at a single edition without scoring with any (86).

  Griezmann, one of France's star performers in their run to the 2022 World Cup final and the joint-third highest scorer in Euros history with seven goals at the competition, is among the Bleus forwards to have struggled.

  He has failed to score from 11 shots worth 1.94 xG, missing all three of the big chances – as defined by Opta – to fall his way, leaving Rabiot lost for an explanation.

   

  "We are all surprised when we know Antoine's qualities and what he did at the World Cup, where he was undoubtedly one of the best players," Rabiot said on Monday.

  "I don't know how to explain it, maybe he's not as well physically. We expect a lot more from Antoine because he is capable of doing much more. 

  "We can win without Antoine, we have a high-level team, but obviously it would be easier if he was at the top of his game."

  Mbappe has also struggled thus far, his one goal coming from 20 shots amounting to 2.74 xG, and he recently suggested Paul Pogba's absence from the France midfield had forced him to change his game.

  Rabiot sees no reason why he or his fellow midfielders should feel insulted by those comments, saying: "Why would I feel targeted? 

  "Paul has these characteristics, you have to adapt. As a midfielder, we also adapt to different strikers. It's a question of adaptation."

   

• The Numbers Game: Netherlands stand between England and back-to-back Euros finals

  England have staggered and stuttered their way through Euro 2024, but they are nevertheless in another semi-final.

  For the third time at a major tournament under Gareth Southgate, the Three Lions are in the last four – the only competition in which they have failed to reach that stage since the start of the 2018 World Cup was in Qatar in 2022.

  Standing between them and successive European Championship finals are the Netherlands.

  Ronald Koeman's team were unconvincing in the group stage but, unlike their opponents in Dortmund on Wednesday, have clicked into gear in the knockouts.

  Whereas England required extra time – and a Jude Bellingham stunner – to break Slovakian hearts, and then stayed perfect from the spot and relied on a save from Jordan Pickford to beat Switzerland on penalties, the Oranje overcame Romania 3-0 and Turkiye 2-1, both inside 90 minutes.

   

  But what does the data suggest ahead of the second Euros semi-final, with a place in the Berlin showpiece, against either France or Spain, on the line?

  What's expected?

  England have been clear favourites, according to the Opta supercomputer, for every match they have played at Euro 2024 so far. But that is not the case for this tie.

  The model gives England a 37.8% chance of victory, just marginally more than the Netherlands' 31.6%; the draw threat (so, the likelihood of extra time and a penalty shoot-out) is coming in at a relatively large 30.6%.

  That's not particularly surprising considering England have gone to extra time in both of their knockout ties so far.

  Only Portugal at Euro 2016, Spain at Euro 2020, and Italy at Euro 2020 have ever gone to extra time three times in a single edition of the finals.

  This is the fourth meeting between England and the Netherlands at a major tournament; the Oranje won 3-1 at Euro 1988 (thanks to a Marco van Basten hat-trick), followed by a goalless draw at the 1990 World Cup, and a 4-1 England win at Euro 1996.

  Of all the nations England have faced 20+ times in their history, only against Brazil (15%) do they have a lower win rate than they do against the Netherlands (27% – six wins, nine draws, seven defeats).

  In fact, England have won just one of their last nine meetings with the Netherlands in all competitions (four draws, four losses), winning a friendly 1-0 in Amsterdam in March 2018.

  Back-to-back?

  While Southgate has come under criticism for the level of performances in Germany, his major tournament record is hard to argue with.

  England went 22 years between 1996 and 2018 without reaching a semi-final. Since the start of that tournament in Russia, England have reached the stage three times.

  Indeed, having gone 65 years without reaching a final, England are now on the brink of back-to-back appearances in a major tournament's biggest event.

  This is England's fourth appearance in the semi-final of the European Championships; having been eliminated in the first two in 1968 (vs Yugoslavia) and 1996 (vs Germany), the Three Lions reached the final of Euro 2020 after beating Denmark 2-1, only to lose on penalties to Italy at Wembley.

  Bukayo Saka cast aside the demons of that final shoot-out with his composed effort from 12 yards against the Swiss, and it was his superb strike that forced extra time in the first place.

  There have been five occasions of a team reaching the final of consecutive editions of the Euros; USSR (1960/1964), Germany (three times, 1972/1976, 1976/1980, 1992/1996) and Spain (2008/2012).

  Change the record

  For the Dutch, it will be a sixth semi-final at the Euros. They have lost their last four, with the one they won coming in 1988 – they went on to win that tournament, with Van Basten scoring one of the most famous goals in the competition's history in the final, which took place in Munich.

  This is the Netherlands' first Euros semi-final since 2004. On that occasion, they lost 2-1 to host nation Portugal.

  The Netherlands have won two different matches having conceded the first goal at Euro 2024, beating Poland 2-1 in the group stage and Turkiye by the same scoreline in the quarter-final.

  Only Czechia, at Euro 2004, have ever won three games having conceded first at a single edition of the tournament, but it does show England – who have proved comeback specialists themselves in the knockouts – must be wary.

  The Netherlands have scored nine goals across their five games at Euro 2024, while their 8.12 expected goals (xG) ranks them fourth in the competition.

  England, on the other hand, have mustered just 4.36 xG, scoring five times. The Oranje also average more touches in the opposition box than the Three Lions (29.8 per game compared to 25.6).

  Defensively, both of these teams have been tight, conceding just seven goals between them, but if the Dutch are to change the record when it comes to their Euros runs in the modern era, this is as good a chance as any.

  PLAYERS TO WATCH

  Netherlands – Memphis Depay

  In Depay (17 shots, 10 chances created) and Cody Gakpo (13 shots, 11 chances created), the Netherlands are the only side with more than one player to have both 10+ shots and 10+ chances created at Euro 2024.

  Indeed, one or both of Depay and/or Gakpo have been directly involved in 47 of the Netherlands' 74 shots at these Euros (63.5%), and six of their nine goals (66.7%).

  While Gakpo has been their primary goalscorer, and has a shot at the Golden Boot, Depay has that magical touch when he's on his best form, and displayed his quality with an excellent delivery for Stefan de Vrij's equaliser against Turkiye.

  England – Harry Kane 

  Coming into the semi-finals, no player has scored more knockout stage goals in the competition’s history than Harry Kane (five, level with Antoine Griezmann).

   

  Kane scored in the semi-final of Euro 2020 against Denmark; only two players have ever scored at this stage of consecutive European Championships – Viktor Ponedelnik and Valentin Ivanov, both for USSR in 1960/1964.

  That being said, despite scoring twice in Germany so far, Kane has largely cut a frustrated figure, and has managed just 23 touches in the opponent's box throughout the tournament.

• 'If you're bored, watch something else' – Deschamps unmoved by France criticism

  Didier Deschamps is unperturbed by criticism of France's style of play at Euro 2024, telling the team's critics not to bother watching Les Bleus if they are bored.

  France are preparing for their fourth semi-final in six tournaments under Deschamps, with Spain standing between them and a place in Sunday's final in Berlin.

  Despite Les Bleus finding themselves in contention at the business end of yet another tournament, they have been fiercely criticised after failing to hit top form in attack.

  Four goals have been scored in their five matches at the tournament (three for, one against), with all of them either being own goals (two) or penalties (two).

  France are the only team on record at a European Championship (since 1980) to have 50 or more non-penalty shots and fail to score any of them (86), with Kylian Mbappe's spot-kick versus Poland in the group stage the only goal scored by a Bleus player thus far.

  Ahead of Tuesday's meeting with a Spain team regarded as the most enterprising at the tournament, Deschamps was asked by a Swedish reporter what he made of the criticism France have faced.

  "If you're bored, watch something else! You don't have to watch us," Deschamps replied. 

   

  "It's a special Euros, where it has been very difficult for everyone. The number of goals is much lower than it has been in the past. 

  "We have the ability to share emotions, to make the French people happy with the results we have been able to achieve, in a complicated period in France. 

  "If the Swedes are bored, it doesn't matter too much to me."

  Euro 2024 has seen an average of 2.25 goals per game ahead of the semi-finals (108 in 48 matches), the sixth-lowest figure in history after the 1968 (1.4), 1980 (1.93), 1996 (2.06), 2016 (2.18) and 1992 (2.13) editions.

  France's struggles in attack can be at least partly attributed to Mbappe's disrupted tournament. He missed Les Bleus' second group game after suffering a broken nose in their opener and has struggled for form since returning to the team.

  At Euro 2020 and Euro 2024 combined, he has scored just one goal from 34 attempts with a 3% conversion rate. At the 2018 and 2022 World Cups, he netted 12 times from 39 shots (31%).

  Deschamps feels Mbappe is getting stronger as the tournament progresses, though.

  "We did everything we could to make sure he recovered, I'm convinced that he's been at his best level possible since the start," he said of the Real Madrid forward. 

  "It's not just related to the last game, everything he had before, with the end of the season, a back problem, the trauma he had. The tournament could have ended for him. 

  "He has a new situation, wearing a mask leads to having modified vision. It was a big shock, we had to digest it. He will do everything to be at the maximum."