The Numbers Game: Man City set on double repeat with Ten Hag on the brink

By Sports Desk May 24, 2024

The Premier League season is over, Euro 2024 is approaching, and now it is time for the FA Cup final to round off the English domestic season.

Manchester City and Manchester United, as they did last season, will face off at Wembley Stadium on Saturday.

City won 2-1 in June 2023, with Ilkay Gundogan's stunning volley after just 12 seconds setting the tone for a dominant performance from Pep Guardiola's side, who were en route to winning a treble.

There's no treble on the cards for City this season, though after clinching an unprecedented fourth straight Premier League title, another double is in their reach.

"We play FA Cup [and] we can do back-to-back doubles, we have [a] chance to do this," Guardiola said on Friday. "The FA Cup for itself is FA Cup, Wembley, all our fans going to London. It's the last game of season, last effort. 

"I'm impressed how well we have trained after a few days off, so focused, everyone wants to be involved, we will do our best for sure."  

United boss Erik ten Hag, meanwhile, looks set to take charge of his final game at the club, with the Red Devils reportedly having made the decision to sack him regardless of Saturday's result.

Using Opta data, here's all you need to know...

What's expected?

Unsurprisingly, Opta's model makes Man City the favourites, with a 68 per cent win likelihood. United's chances are rated at just 14.4 per cent, with a 17.7 per cent chance it finishes level after 120 minutes, meaning penalties would be needed.

City are unbeaten in their last 35 matches in all competitions (W29 D6) – it’s the second-longest run by a top-flight club in English football history, after Nottingham Forest’s run of 40 in 1978.

There has been a gulf between the rivals this season. City won both of their league meetings against United by an aggregate of 6-1. The last time they beat their neighbours three times in the same campaign was in 1969-70.

City fare well in some significant data points. They have the biggest positive difference (+83) between total shots (127) and shots faced (44) in the Premier League this season, and the biggest positive difference (+9.6) between their expected goals (xG) of 14.8 and expected goals against (xGA) of 5.2.

With City topping the Premier League and United way down in eighth, 31 points separated the rivals.

City scored the most goals in the Premier League, with 96, 29 more than United (57), whose xG was also 57.

United's defensive issues have been well-documented. Their xGA stood at a whopping 70 across their 38 league matches, with only the three relegated sides and West Ham having a worse figure, while only Sheffield United (678) allowed more shots than the Red Devils (667).

Ten Hag on the brink

United are looking to win the FA Cup for the 13th time, something only Arsenal (14) have ever done more. However, the Red Devils have failed to win the trophy in four of their last five final appearances, with the exception coming in 2016 against Crystal Palace under Louis van Gaal (2-1).

There have been six previous occasions of a side finishing 8th or lower facing that season’s champions in the showpiece – Aston Villa (10th) beat Manchester United 2-1 in 1957, but since then such sides have lost all five finals by an aggregate score of 15-0.

United have won five of their last seven FA Cup games against City. However, both defeats in that run have come in games at Wembley (2011 semi-final, 2023 final).

The Red Devils have lost six of their last seven meetings with City in all competitions (W1), including each of the last three in a row. They last lost four consecutively against them between 2013 and 2014.

United have lost 19 games and conceded 84 goals in all competitions this season. They last lost 20 in a campaign in 1973-74 (22) and last conceded more than 84 in 1963-64 (89).

This is only the second time in FA Cup history the same fixture has been played in the final in consecutive years, after Blackburn Rovers v Queen's Park Rangers in 1884 and 1885, and the sensible money would be on City repeating their victory from last year.

Serial winners

Much has been said of City's dominance in the Premier League, but Guardiola's team just have to be lauded for their incredible hunger to keep winning.

City could complete the league title and FA Cup double for the third time, something only previously achieved by Manchester United (1993-94, 1995-96 and 1998-99) and Arsenal (1970-71, 1997-98 and 2001-02). The Citizens did so in 2018-19 and 2022-23 and thus could become the first team to do so in consecutive campaigns.

They are aiming to win the FA Cup for the eighth time and for the first time ever in consecutive years.

Guardiola's side have won each of their last 11 matches in the FA Cup; excluding byes and void games, there have only been two longer winning runs in the competition’s history – Blackburn Rovers (20 between 1883 and 1886) and Chelsea (13 between 2009 and 2011).

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Man City: Erling Haaland

Phil Foden is the Premier League Player of the Year, while he has been involved in 10 goals in his last nine appearances in all competitions, scoring nine and assisting one. He has also netted six goals in his last five games against United, while only against Brighton (eight) has he scored more career goals than his six against the Red Devils.

Yet it is Haaland who United's ramshackle defence will be most fearful of.

Haaland is the top-scoring Premier League player in all competitions this season with 38 goals. He netted 52 times last season and could become the first Premier League player to score 40+ in consecutive campaigns.

He has also been involved in nine goals in five appearances against United in all competitions (six goals, three assists), more than he has against any other side as a City player.

Man Utd: Bruno Fernandes 

Fernandes scored from the penalty spot for United in last season's FA Cup final.

He could become the fifth United player to score in the showpiece in two different years, after Bryan Robson (1983 and 1990), Norman Whiteside (1983 and 1985), Mark Hughes (1990 and 1994) and Eric Cantona (1994 and 1996).

Marcus Rashford, having been left out of the England squad for Euro 2024, will be looking to offer a reminder of his qualities, too.

Related items

  • Euro 2024 data dive: Ronaldo breaks assist record, Group E set for historic finish Euro 2024 data dive: Ronaldo breaks assist record, Group E set for historic finish

    The action continued at Euro 2024 on Saturday, with Portugal becoming the second side to clinch their place as group winners, after Spain.

    It was a memorable day for Cristiano Ronaldo, and not only because a total of six pitch invaders attempted to get a picture with the legendary forward.

    He laid on a record-breaking seventh goal at the European Championships as the Selecao crushed Turkiye 3-0, while there was nothing to separate Georgia and Czechia in a 1-1 draw elsewhere in Group F.

    In Group E, meanwhile, it's all to play for with all four teams on three points after two games, following Belgium's 2-0 victory over Romania.

    Here, we run through all the best Opta stats to emerge from the day's matches.

    Georgia 1-1 Czechia: Mikautadze replicates Shevchenko feat

    The first game of the day served up yet another entertaining encounter as Georgia claimed their first point at a major tournament against Czechia in Hamburg. 

    Georges Mikautadze gave Georgia the lead after Robin Hranac was adjudged to have handled the ball inside the area, scoring from the penalty spot to become the sixth player to net both of his nation's first two goals at the European Championships, and the first since Andriy Shevchenko in 2012 for Ukraine.

    Giorgi Mamardashvili made eight saves in the first half, equalling the most of any goalkeeper in an entire game at Euro 2024, as Georgia held their advantage until the break.

    Despite his heroics, Georgia's lead was gone 14 minutes into the second half as Patrik Schick moved ahead of Milan Baros as Czechia's top scorer at the Euros, putting the ball in off his chest from close range for his sixth goal at the competition (five in 2020).

    Czechia continued to dominate proceedings, but their lack of clinical edge in front of goal proved costly. They recorded 12 shots on target against Georgia; the most by a team who failed to win a match at the European Championships on record (since 1980). 

    But a lot of that was down to the inspired performance of Mamardashvili. The Georgia goalkeeper made three saves in the second half, taking his tally to 11 for the match, with only Latvia's Alexanders Kolinko (12) making more in a game at the Euros on record (since 1980), against the Netherlands in 2004. 

    However, Georgia had a golden opportunity to earn their maiden win at a major tournament when they found themselves three-on-one with the clock ticking down, but Saba Lobjanidze could only fire the ball over the bar. 

    Georgia now know they must beat Portugal in their final group game in Gelsenkirchen next Wednesday, but they can take confidence from their recent form. 

    Since losing three in a row between June and September 2023, Georgia have only lost two of their last nine games in all competitions (four wins, three draws).

    Turkiye 0-3 Portugal: Ronaldo breaks all-time assist record

    259 miles west of Dortmund, Portugal became the latest team to confirm their place in the last 16 of Euro 2024 with a comfortable triumph over Turkiye, recording their joint-biggest victory in a match at the Euros in the process. 

    Roberto Martinez's side were aided by a defensive disasterclass from their opponents, having taken the lead through Bernardo Silva's first international goal at a major tournament.

    Samet Akaydin's calamitous own goal doubled their advantage, the defender's misplaced back pass rolling in for only the second own goal from outside the box in European Championship history, after Pedri achieved the unwanted feat for Spain against Croatia at Euro 2020. 

    Portugal will, however, be without Rafael Leao for their final group game against Georgia, having picked up his second yellow card of Euro 2024, both for diving, becoming the only player on record (since 1980) to have multiple cards for simulation at the tournament.

    Bruno Fernandes made sure of the victory 10 minutes into the second half, with more defensive blunders allowing Ronaldo to lay the ball on a plate to secure his seventh assist at the European Championships – the most on record (since 1968) of any player in the competition’s history.

    Manchester United midfielder Fernandes continued his stellar spell for his national side, and he has now been involved in 28 goals in his last 23 appearances for Portugal in all competitions, scoring 15 and assisting 13.

    Martinez's side have now won both of their group-stage games so far in Euro 2024, more than they did in the 2016 and 2020 editions combined (one win, four draws, one defeat). It’s the third time they’ve won their opening two games at a single edition of the competition, after Euro 2000 and Euro 2008.

    After an impressive opening display against Georgia, Turkiye suffered their 11th defeat in the group stages of the Euros, with only Denmark (13) having more such defeats in the history of the competition.

    Belgium 2-0 Romania: De Bruyne the star as Red Devils bounce back

    Following their surprise 1-0 defeat to Slovakia on matchday one, Belgium bounced back with a 2-0 victory over Romania in Cologne, ensuring they continued their run of winning at least one game on all seven of their appearances at the European Championships.

    They wasted little time in getting their noses in front, with Aston Villa's Youri Tielemans lashing home from the edge of the box after just 73 seconds.

    That was Belgium's fastest ever goal at a major tournament (World Cup/Euros) and the third-fastest strike in Euros history, after Russia's Dmitry Kirichenko (76 seconds) against Greece in 2004 and Albania's Nedim Bajrami (23 seconds) versus Italy this year.

    It was Tielemans' first goal at a major international tournament on his 13th such appearance, with five of his eight strikes for his country coming from outside the area. 

    Domenico Tedesco's team continued to dominate as they sought a two-goal cushion, with Romelu Lukaku penalised for offside in the second half following a VAR review, having a third goal chalked off at this tournament – more than any player has scored thus far.

    Fortunately for Belgium, Kevin De Bruyne stepped up to make the points safe 11 minutes from time, prodding past Florin Nita when one-on-one. 

    Since the start of the 2014 World Cup (his first major tournament), no Belgian has been involved in more Euro or World Cup goals than the Manchester City star, whose 13 goal contributions (four goals, nine assists) put him level with Lukaku and Eden Hazard.

    De Bruyne's five shots against Romania were his most in a Euros match since 2016 (seven versus Hungary). No player on the pitch had more shots, shots on target (three), made more tackles (four) or won more fouls (four) than the Belgium skipper.

    The result means all four teams in Group E have three points with one game remaining, setting up a tense finale for next Wednesday.

    This is the first time that a European Championship group has featured four teams level on points ahead of the final set of fixtures.

  • Belgium 2-0 Romania: Tielemans and De Bruyne hand Red Devils much-needed win Belgium 2-0 Romania: Tielemans and De Bruyne hand Red Devils much-needed win

    Belgium bounced back from their opening defeat at Euro 2024 with a much-needed 2-0 win over Romania, Youri Tielemans and Kevin De Bruyne scoring as they got off the mark in Group E.

    Following their surprise 1-0 defeat to Slovakia on matchday one, Domenico Tedesco's men knew another defeat would leave them unable to secure a top-two finish.

    They came flying out of the traps and needed just 73 seconds to open the scoring, Tielemans firing home from the edge of the area following good hold-up play from Romelu Lukaku to score the Red Devils' fastest ever goal at a major tournament.

    They continued to press throughout the first half but were unable to find a second goal, Lukaku going close when he saw his shot on the turn blocked by Nicusor Bancu.

    De Bruyne flashed a curling effort narrowly wide of the far corner shortly after the break, then it appeared he had assisted Belgium's second when he released Lukaku to finish into the bottom-left corner, only for the striker to be ruled offside following a VAR check.

    Koen Casteels made a crucial stop from Dennis Man to keep Belgium's lead intact, and they made that reprieve count with 11 minutes to play, De Bruyne latching onto Lukaku's flick-on before prodding his finish past Florin Nita when one-on-one.

    Belgium failed to add a third despite chances for Lukaku and Leandro Trossard late on, but their win tees up an intriguing finale in Group E with all four teams on three points ahead of Wednesday's final set of games.

    Data Debrief: Lukaku's rotten luck continues

    Belgium may have gotten over the line on Saturday, but Lukaku continued to endure some rotten luck up top, his disallowed goal in the second half being the third strike he has seen chalked off at Euro 2024. That is more goals than any player has scored. 

    Not including those strikes, he has now failed to score from eight shots worth a total of 1.27 expected goals (xG) at this tournament.

    He will be desperately hoping it is a different story in next Wednesday's decider against Ukraine.

  • Ronaldo's record-breaking assist 'should be shown in every academy', says Martinez Ronaldo's record-breaking assist 'should be shown in every academy', says Martinez

    Cristiano Ronaldo's record-breaking seventh assist at the European Championships should be shown to all young players across the world, says Portugal boss Roberto Martinez.

    Portugal sealed their place in the last 16 of Euro 2024 as Group F winners with a game to spare on Saturday, thrashing Turkiye 3-0 in Dortmund.

    Bernardo Silva and Bruno Fernandes scored either side of a comical own goal from Samet Akaydin, as the Selecao produced a far more complete performance than they managed in their last-gasp 2-1 win over Czechia on matchday one.

    Fernandes' clinching goal came when Ronaldo sprang the Turkiye offside trap before unselfishly squaring for his former Manchester United team-mate when they were two-on-one versus goalkeeper Altay Bayindir.

    Ronaldo's assist was his seventh at the European Championships overall, the most on record (since 1968) of any player in the competition's history.

    Martinez believes that incident proved Ronaldo will always put the team first and should serve as inspiration for young players everywhere.

    Speaking at his post-match press conference, Martinez said: "We saw something extraordinary, in front of the goalkeeper, he gave it to Bruno Fernandes.

    "He is an example that should be shown in every academy in Portugal and throughout the world of football, he showed the team is the most important thing."

    Ronaldo also holds the all-time goalscoring record at the tournament, with 14, while Saturday's victory was his 23rd at major international tournaments (World Cup/Euros).

    Only Bastian Schweinsteiger and Miroslav Klose (25 each for Germany) have recorded more such wins among European players.

    Portugal's victory was overshadowed, however, by a total of six pitch invaders making it onto the playing surface, seemingly emboldened by Ronaldo posing for a photograph with the first to reach the pitch – a young boy.

    Asked about those incidents, Martinez said: "It's a concern because today we were lucky that the intentions of the fans were good.

    "I think we all love a fan that recognises the big stars and the big icons, but you can understand it would be a very, very difficult moment if those intentions are wrong."

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