EPL

Home advantage big help for Newcastle - Howe

By Sports Desk May 10, 2024

Eddie Howe has highlighted Newcastle’s home form as a high point this season as they prepare to welcome Brighton to St James’ Park.

The Magpies moved to sixth in the table after a thumping 4-1 win over Burnley last weekend and have now lost just one of their last seven matches.

At home, Newcastle are unbeaten in their last seven outings, scoring four or more goals in four of those matches.

Asked how he was feeling ahead of their final home match of the season, Howe was full of praise for his team.

He said: "We have loved playing at home this season. I have been really pleased with how we have performed at home.

"We have a good feel, a good energy, and we've been very aggressive in our play. We are thankful for the support we have received from the fans - the crowd have embraced our style. It's been a good partnership between the crowd and the players."

Brighton ended a run of six without a win with their 1-0 win over Aston Villa last Sunday, though that dip in form cost them a place in Europe next season.

While disappointed by that outcome, Roberto De Zerbi wants to use that as motivation for his team to finish the season strongly.

"I think we have to be happy or sad depending on the attitude we showed. I think we have worked well, and we give our best, and then we have to accept the result," De Zerbi said.

"When the new season starts you might have new and different players. You close the last season and start another season. For sure, we start the motivation [now]."

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Newcastle United – Anthony Gordon

Gordon has been involved in more home goals than any other Newcastle player in the Premier League this season (16 – nine goals, seven assists). It’s the most by a player at St James’ Park in a single top-flight campaign since Alan Shearer in 2003-04 (18 – 15 goals, three assists).

Brighton – Simon Adingra

With top-scorer Joao Pedro out through injury, Brighton will be looking to Adingra to make something happen. Despite not getting on the scoresheet against Aston Villa last time out, the winger had the joint-most shots (four, all on target), while having the most touches in the opposition box.

MATCH PREDICTION: NEWCASTLE UNITED WIN

Having failed to either win or score in their first four Premier League home games against Brighton (D2 L2), Newcastle have won 2-1 and 4-1 respectively in their last two against the Seagulls at St James’ Park.

Newcastle have scored in all 18 of their Premier League home games so far this season. They last scored in 100 per cent of their home league games in a single campaign in 1982-83, while they last did so in the top-flight in 1958-59.

However, Brighton are looking to complete the league double over Newcastle for the third time, previously doing so in 2020-21 (Premier League) and 1978-79 (second tier).

The Seagulls won 1-0 against Aston Villa last time out, ending a six-game winless run in the Premier League. However, they’ve not won back-to-back league games since a run of three in September.

Newcastle have scored at least four goals in nine different Premier League games this season – only in 1895-96 in the second tier (10) have they done so in more league games in a single campaign.

OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

Newcastle United – 45.1%

Draw – 27.6%

Brighton – 27.3%

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    It took 28 years, but Argentina finally ended a long wait for a major international trophy when they triumphed at the 2021 Copa America.

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    THE HOSTS

    USA

    This year's Copa will be held in the United States, which was also the host nation for the 2016 edition, which was won by Chile.

    Like in 2016, 16 teams will feature at the tournament this year, with the USA one of six CONCACAF nations involved.

    Gregg Berhalter left his role after the 2022 World Cup, but was then reappointed. While he has a talented group at his disposal, it does feel as though he cannot quite get the required level of consistency out of them.

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    Folarin Balogun has netted three times for the Stars and Stripes since switching allegiance from England, while Antonee Robinson, Tyler Adams, Weston McKennie and Yunus Musah have plenty of top-level experience. But Berhalter has to find a way to put it all together.

    THE FAVOURITES

    Argentina

    It is easy to see why La Albiceleste are the big favourites. They are the best team in the world, according to the FIFA rankings, and in Messi, they still have a player who is arguably the best in the world, even heading into his late thirties.

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    As soon as he features for Argentina at this tournament, Messi will become the Copa America’s all-time record holder for appearances – he is tied with Chile great Sergio Livingstone on 34, as it stands.

    Messi has scored 13 Copa America goals, which puts him joint-seventh on the all-time list, alongside fellow Argentina great Gabriel Batistuta. If he is able to replicate his four goals from the 2021 edition, then Messi could join Norberto Mendez and Zizinho at the top of the all-time charts – that is unless Peru's Paolo Guerrero and/or Chile's Eduardo Vargas were to net at least four times each to set a new record.

    Since the start of the 2011 Copa, Messi has had 102 shots – more than any other player. Surprisingly, his conversion rate stands at just 10.78 per cent, which is the second-lowest out of any player to have netted at least five goals in the competition in that time.

    With 15 titles to their name, Argentina are the joint-record winners of the Copa America, alongside Uruguay. They have played more Copa matches (201) and scored more goals in the tournament (474) than any other team, too.

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    Brazil

    This Brazil is not exactly the vintage of the 1990s or 2000s. With no Neymar, there's less flair, and more streetfighter grit, in Dorival Junior's squad.

    Vinicius Junior does provide a flavour of the archetypal Brazilian international, though, and he is set to be the Selecao's talisman at this Copa.

    He comes into the tournament on the back of an exceptional season with Real Madrid, having scored 24 goals across all competitions.

    Vinicius outperformed his 20.96 xG, while also providing nine assists and creating 56 chances for his team-mates.

    The forward spent much of the domestic campaign playing down the middle for Carlo Ancelotti's team, whereas for his country, he is likely to play wide left.

    Who occupies that centre-forward spot is perhaps up for debate. Endrick is a superstar in the making, though will Brazil's coach trust the youngster to lead the line from the off?

    Gabriel Martinelli is better on the flanks, though could do a job if required. However, with no Richarlison or Gabriel Jesus, that striker position does seem a possible weakness.

    There's no Casemiro, following his poor performances for Manchester United, but Douglas Luiz, Bruno Guimaraes and Lucas Paqueta form a steely midfield trio with genuine quality.

    With Ederson injured, Alisson is the clear number one, with Eder Militao and Marquinhos seemingly set to pair up at the back, with Gabriel Magalhaes and Bremer quality options in reserve, too.

    They face Colombia, Paraguay and Costa Rica in their group, and despite their struggles in World Cup qualifying, they are still the favourites to top that pool.

    Uruguay

    Now under the guidance of the enigmatic Marcelo Bielsa, Uruguay are being tipped by many to emerge as serious challengers in the United States. 

    A hat-trick from Liverpool's Darwin Nunez helped them thrash Mexico 4-0 in a pre-tournament friendly last week, while they also sit second in the CONMEBOL 2026 World Cup qualification standings, having beaten Brazil and Argentina last year.

    That latter victory makes them the only team to defeat La Albiceleste since they won the World Cup in Qatar. Messi and company have won the other 13 of their 14 matches as world champions.

    Nunez, who ranked joint-fifth in the Premier League for total shots (108) and eighth for xG (16.39) in 2023-24, is an ideal fit for the all-action attacking approach favoured by Bielsa, while tireless midfielder Federico Valverde brings balance alongside enforcer Manuel Ugarte and the cultured Rodrigo Bentancur.

    Luis Suarez, meanwhile, has received a surprise call-up despite not featuring in Uruguay's pre-tournament friendlies, having scored 12 goals and assisted five in 16 MLS appearances for Inter Miami this term.

    Neutrals should expect entertainment from a side that leads all teams in South American World Cup qualifying for xG (9.05), but as is so often the case with Bielsa's teams, there are questions at the other end. 

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    Colombia

    Colombia are the form team heading into the Copa America.

    They are unbeaten in 23 games, winning the last eight of those, including hammerings of the USA and Bolivia in pre-tournament friendlies.

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    Having been left out of Colombia's squad for the 2021 edition, James will be eager to make up for lost time.

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    THE BREAKOUT STARS

    Endrick is the obvious pick here. The teenager looks set for stardom, and he'll be linking up with Vinicius, Jude Bellingham and Kylian Mbappe at Real Madrid next season. He has scored three goals in his last four outings for Brazil, including a late winner against Mexico earlier in June.

    Alejandro Garnacho is now an established Premier League player, but he is only just finding his way for Argentina. He is yet to score for his country, but has stepped up in big moments for Manchester United this season, none more so than in the FA Cup final, in which he scored the opening goal in a 2-1 win over Manchester City.

    Colombia forward Jhon Duran  is reportedly of interest to Chelsea, and the Aston Villa attacker could be something of a wildcard for Lorenzo off the bench. His five Premier League goals in 2023-24 came from just 2.0 xG.

    THE OPTA SUPERCOMPUTER SAYS...

    As mentioned, Argentina are the clear favourites, with Opta's model handing them a 31 per cent chance of winning their 16th Copa crown.

    Brazil, as would be expected, rank second - their win likelihood is 23 per cent .

    Uruguay come in with a 13 per cent chance, ahead of the USA ( seven per cent ), Colombia ( six per cent ) and Mexico ( six per cent ).

    Two teams - Jamaica and Bolivia, who are the worst-ranked side in this year's edition of the tournament - are given a zero per cent chance of winning the trophy.

    Panama, who reached the CONCACAF Gold Cup final last year, can perhaps consider themselves hard done by to be given just a one per cent chance, however.

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