Mikel Arteta is looking to prove the Opta supercomputer wrong as Arsenal prepare for perhaps the biggest test of their Premier League title credentials, in Sunday's North London derby at Tottenham.
Arsenal began the weekend one point clear of Manchester City at the top of the table, though Pep Guardiola's men have a game in hand and have been in ominous form lately, winning their last four league matches.
Five wins for City will ensure they retain their crown, and according to the Opta supercomputer, the champions started the weekend with a 71.7% chance of topping the pile, compared to 26.6% for Arsenal and just 1.7% for Liverpool.
Arteta hopes to see Arsenal's figure boosted by a derby win, saying: "I don't know what to say, hopefully we can trick that computer and make it a bit higher!
"Maybe it needs to update the software, we need to help it or give it more tools. Hopefully we can change that!
"We are there. We have to look at ourselves and try to perform in the best possible way to win our matches and I can't wait to see what happens.
"We had a big win in the last London derby against Chelsea and now we have another big one. I'm sure if we're going to win the league, we're going to have to beat Spurs as well."
Tottenham, meanwhile, need points if they are to overhaul Aston Villa in the battle for Champions League qualification, with fifth place now extremely unlikely to be enough.
Ange Postecoglou, though, is more interested in seeing how Spurs measure up to a side they hope to challenge in the future.
"We understand the importance of the game but ultimately, it's still about us measuring ourselves against the teams we want to be challenging on a more consistent basis," Postecoglou said.
"It's a great opportunity to do that on Sunday."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Tottenham – Son Heung-min
Son scored twice for Spurs in the reverse fixture against Arsenal in September – a 2-2 draw at the Emirates Stadium. In all competitions, only five players have scored more goals in the fixture's history than Son's seven.
The only player to score multiple goals in both north London derby matches in a league season was Arsenal's Ted Drake, who did so back in 1934-35.
Arsenal – Martin Odegaard
Odegaard has been involved in six goals in his last six away appearances in the Premier League, scoring three and assisting three.
The Gunners captain was in mesmerising form in Tuesday's 5-0 win over Chelsea, leading all players on the pitch for assists (two), chances created (eight), passes into the final third (34) and duels won (eight). A repeat performance would be huge for the visitors' title hopes.
MATCH PREDICTION – ARSENAL WIN
Tottenham have won just one of their last six Premier League games against Arsenal (one draw, four defeats), with their four losses in this span as many as they had suffered in their previous 16 against the Gunners (six wins, six draws).
They also lost this exact fixture 2-0 last season, meaning the Gunners could win on back-to-back league trips to Tottenham for the first time since enjoying a run of three victories there between 1987 and 1988.
Arteta's men know there is no margin for error with the title race in City's hands.
Even a draw could prove fatal to their hopes – at the end of the 2015-16 season, the North London derby was the most drawn fixture in Premier League history, with 20 of 48 meetings finishing level (42 per cent). Since then, only four matches between these rivals have seen the points shared (27 per cent).
Arsenal have kept six straight clean sheets on their travels in the Premier League, with only two teams ever keeping seven in a row – Chelsea from September to December 2008 and Manchester United from November to February in 2008-09. The Gunners should have enough to grind out a huge win.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Tottenham – 31%
Arsenal – 41.3%
Draw – 27.7%
St. Louis City v Chicago Fire: Carnell warns against complacency amid unbeaten run
Bradley Carnell has warned his St. Louis City side they can't get comfortable despite a four-game unbeaten run.
Carnell's men last lost in March, since winning one and drawing three to leave St. Louis ninth in the Western Conference, just three points behind sixth-placed Austin FC.
As his team prepares to host the Chicago Fire this weekend, Carnell has cautioned his players not to become complacent.
"We can speak so many nice positives, especially with our three clean sheets in four and there are so many good moments," Carnell said.
"But I also don't want to get comfortable with that. I don't want to be used to getting draws. I don't want to hype up getting ties."
Carnell's side will look to extend their unbeaten run against a Fire team winless in four, currently 13th in the East after a poor start.
Chicago head coach Frank Klopas hopes his team don't lose faith, telling reporters: "Our focus is to continue to stay positive with the group.
"It's a process of evaluating and looking at how we can improve as a team, and then making sure once we analyse the games we look at certain things we did well and our mistakes to look to improve.
"It's a long season. I feel the team has been playing well, but we have to find a way to get points."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
St. Louis City – Joao Klauss
No St. Louis player has managed more MLS goal contributions than Klauss so far this term, scoring three and adding an assist. He will likely lead the line on Saturday and will hope to score the goals that start turning draws into wins.
Chicago Fire – Brian Gutierrez
Despite his team's poor collective start, 20-year-old midfielder Gutierrez has performed well and leads his team with three MLS goals so far this season, while also registering an assist. He will look to build on that and try to turn his side's fortunes around, starting this Saturday.
MATCH PREDICTION – ST. LOUIS WIN
St. Louis have kept clean sheets in three of their last four matches, including in the scoreless draw with the Houston Dynamo last time out. St. Louis had managed just two clean sheets in their previous 23 matches in all competitions dating back to last July.
The Fire, meanwhile, have failed to score in four straight matches. This is the fifth time Chicago have gone four or more consecutive league matches without scoring since the start of the 2021 season.
Six of St. Louis City's last eight matches have ended in draws, but home advantage should be enough to see off a struggling Chicago team on Saturday.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
St. Louis: 55.5%
Chicago: 19%
Draw: 25.5%
LA Galaxy v Real Salt Lake: Vanney encouraged ahead of top-of-the-table tussle
Greg Vanney believes the LA Galaxy are in a good spot both physically and mentally ahead of Saturday's clash with fellow Western Conference high-fliers Real Salt Lake.
The Galaxy sit third in the West through 11 matches of the season, though they have failed to win back-to-back road games against Austin FC (0-2) and the Seattle Sounders (0-0).
They are, however, unbeaten in all four of their home league games this term (two wins, two draws), and Vanney is looking forward to returning to Dignity Health Sports Park next time out.
"Physically, first and foremost, we're in a pretty good spot. We have a few guys coming back from issues that were pretty minor," Vanney said.
"It's good. We've been able to stay in that space for a while and now we're going into a busy part of the schedule we can make some choices about how we want to attack the week.
"Where are we mentally? We're good. It's nice to be home, it's a challenge to play a lot of games on the road early doors.
"We like the spot we're in and we want to keep building, but we've got to get through this tough stretch of games."
Real Salt Lake are top of the Western standings with 21 points, only losing twice in 11 league games this year.
However, they were dumped out of the U.S. Open Cup by New Mexico United on Wednesday, Pablo Mastroeni shuffling his pack for a 4-2 road loss.
"We completely tuned out," Mastroeni said after watching his team go 2-0 down within 20 minutes.
"The emotion is like, 'poor me,' and when you operate from that space, you can never think reasonably."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
LA Galaxy – Gabriel Pec
The Galaxy (12 shots) and Seattle (19) combined for 31 shots in their scoreless draw last time out.
Pec – who has two goals in 10 league appearances since joining the Galaxy in the offseason – recorded six of his team's attempts, but only hit the target once. He will be targeting an improvement here.
Real Salt Lake – Cristian Arango
Arango is the first Real Salt Lake player to contribute to at least one goal in five straight regular-season away matches, recording four goals and five assists during his streak.
He is just the second player since the start of last season to record a goal contribution in five straight MLS away matches, after the Columbus Crew's Cucho Hernandez.
MATCH PREDICTION – LA GALAXY WIN
The Galaxy have lost only one of their last 13 home matches against Real Salt Lake (nine wins, three draws) including going unbeaten through the last seven in a row.
The last two meetings in Carson have both ended level, though, after the Galaxy won nine of the previous 11 (one draw, one defeat).
However, Vanney's team have only lost one of their last 14 regular-season home matches dating back to last June, winning six and drawing six while averaging 2.2 goals per game throughout this run.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
LA Galaxy – 44.8%
Real Salt Lake – 27.8%
Draw – 27.4%
Leverkusen reach Europa League final and stretch unbeaten run with late show
Bayer Leverkusen reached the Europa League final and stretched their remarkable unbeaten run to 49 games on Thursday, Josip Stanisic scoring seven minutes into stoppage time in a dramatic 2-2 draw with Roma.
Having won last week's first leg 2-0 in Italy, Leverkusen were strong favourites to advance to this month's final in Dublin, though two Leandro Paredes penalties left them facing up to the prospect of extra time.
Paredes halved Leverkusen's aggregate lead on the stroke of half-time after Jonathan Tah fouled Sardar Azmoun, then repeated the trick following a bizarre handball from Adam Hlozek shortly after the hour mark.
However, Roma's hearts were broken as goalkeeper Mile Svilar – who was otherwise outstanding – failed to claim a routine corner and it bounced in off the unfortunate Gianluca Mancini with eight minutes of the 90 remaining.
Rather than sitting back at 2-1 up in the tie, Leverkusen chased a leveller in order to preserve their unbeaten record across all competitions this season.
It was yet another last-gasp effort that kept that record intact, with Stanisic firing into the bottom-left corner after being played through by Granit Xhaka.
Xabi Alonso's team are now unbeaten in 49 games in all competitions, breaking Benfica's previous European top-tier record of 48 matches, set between 1963 and 1965.
Leverkusen will face another Italian side in the showpiece game, after Atalanta crushed Marseille 3-0 in Bergamo to seal a 4-1 aggregate win in the other semi-final.
In-form striker Gianluca Scamacca had already rattled the crossbar when La Dea took the lead, with Ademola Lookman's strike deflecting in off the unfortunate Samuel Gigot.
Lookman then turned provider as Atalanta stretched their advantage seven minutes after the break, teeing up Matteo Ruggeri for a rasping finish into the top-right corner.
Gian Piero Gasperini's men were able to add some gloss to the scoreline at the death, with El Bilal Toure's pinpoint finish giving Pau Lopez no chance to round off a dominant win.
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