Garry Monk positive as Cambridge reign starts with draw against Northampton

By Sports Desk March 09, 2024

Garry Monk felt Cambridge showed signs of what they can be capable of in his first match as manager.

Cambridge looked on course to mark Monk’s first match with a victory but Northampton dominated territory in the second half and ensured the points were shared courtesy of Jon Guthrie’s late goal.

The Us moved a point further away from the relegation zone with the 1-1 draw, ending a run of four straight losses and sitting five points above the drop zone with 10 games remaining.

“The positive of it is that we’ve stopped that run of results,” said Monk, whose side had led through Elias Kachunga.

“As much as the aim is the three points, every point will count. So I’m pleased on that side of it from the players.

“Quite understandably in that second half, where you haven’t won for a while and you haven’t got points, that kind of protective mentality comes in where you’ve got the points and it feels close, and then you’re maybe a bit too protective and stop doing what we were doing with the ball and being that threat.

“It allowed Northampton to come much more into the game in that second half. That’s stuff to work on, for sure. I probably expected a little bit of that, but I can’t complain. The players were great.

“I’ve always said that if you can’t win a game then make sure you don’t lose it. They did everything to make sure they didn’t lose that game. We can be better but that first half’s a really good indication of what they can be capable of.”

Jon Brady spoke highly of his Northampton side as they collected a point following a 5-1 loss to Peterborough on Tuesday.

“It has to be a good point,” he said. “It’s a bit of a milestone to get to 50.

“Our remit was to maintain our League One status, then we can breathe a sigh of relief. To do what we’ve done so far, without patting ourselves on the back yet, is a fantastic achievement.

“We’ve had nine out in the last three weeks, one’s a goalkeeper and six are defenders so we’re shuffling the pack all over the place with no consistency.

“There’s some constraints to us and we’re still putting in that performance. I’m really proud of the character of the team.”

Speaking of his message at half-time, Brady spoke of the need for “a lot more purpose, move the ball quicker, a few tactical elements to get round the sides a bit quicker”.

He added: “I thought we did, and we dominated possession and they were hardly in our half.

“Tuesday night was so tough to take, to bounce back like this today even after going 1-0 down shows you huge character.”

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    However, if we compare City's attacking output to that from last season, it is clear they have endured a drop-off. In the WSL in 2023-24, City averaged 2.77 goals and 2.19 xG per game. Though they were eclipsed by Hayes' free-scoring Chelsea, they took more of their chances than anticipated based on the quality of opportunities they created.

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    While City have not matched Chelsea's ruthlessness this season, that does not apply to last season's Golden Boot winner, Khadija 'Bunny' Shaw.

    She has seven goals in as many games this season, overperforming her league-high xG figure of 4.83 xG, and also leads the competition for shots (28) and shots on target (12).

    Shaw has been presented with nine big chances and has converted five of them, which is the highest conversion rate (55.56%) of the 13 players to have had more than three such opportunities in the league this term.

    Of players to have had at least 10 shots in the WSL, she also has the joint-best shot conversion rate (25%) – level with Nikita Parris (three goals from 12 shots) and Johanna Rytting Kaneryd (three goals from 12 shots).

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    City were hoping their reliance on Shaw would be lessened when they swooped for the WSL's all-time leading scorer in Vivianne Miedema, but a recurring knee issue has left the former Arsenal star on the sidelines once more. Prior to her latest injury setback, Miedema had scored two goals in five games in all competitions for City.

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    Timing is Everything

    One theme of Chelsea's season has been their ability to come out of the blocks fast and bury opponents early on, such as when they netted twice in the first 16 minutes of their 2-1 win at Arsenal. The Blues have scored 11 first-half goals in the WSL this season, more than any other team. Their 7.28 first-half xG is also the highest in the league, beating City's 6.78.

    Given their overall tally of 23 goals, it is no surprise that Chelsea have also scored the most second-half goals (12), with City second with 10. City have, however, been notably stronger in the second periods of games – often requiring late goals to earn results – and have the highest second-half xG (9.8), with Chelsea's second-half xG down at 6.5.

    So, Chelsea are often faster starters, but must be aware of City's ability to pull results out of the fire. Saturday's visitors have gained the most points from losing positions in the WSL this term (seven). Chelsea have not gained any points from losing positions, though that is, of course, because they are yet to trail at any point.

    After Chelsea's magnificent start to the campaign, the Opta supercomputer still views them as hot favourites to retain their crown. The Blues are given a huge 79.3% chance of winning the title compared to City's 19.9%, with Taylor's team finishing second again in 66.8% of our 2024-25 season simulations.

     

    The significance of this game, though, means those figures could drastically change after Saturday. Bompastor's team are given a 53.7% chance of emerging victorious, while City's hope of victory are rated at 22.5%.

    City would surely be content with a draw on the road, which would halt Chelsea's winning streak and maintain their advantage at the summit, and 23.7% of the supercomputer's pre-match simulations finished all square. 

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