Everton's appeal against their 10-point deduction for financial breaches is unlikely to be overturned, according to football finance expert Dan Plumley.
The Toffees received the heaviest points deduction in Premier League history earlier this month, leaving them in the relegation zone after they were found to have broken the league's profit and sustainability rules, spending £19.5m over the allowed limit across four seasons between 2018 and 2022.
The club is appealing the ruling, looking to use mitigating factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the war between Ukraine and Russia, which led to the cut of financial ties with Alisher Usmanov, a commercial partner of the club.
However, Plumley believes even if Everton's appeal is successful, the deduction is more likely to be reduced than overturned, telling Stats Perform: "I think there's going to be mitigation and proportionality. Those are the things that Everton are focusing on.
"The best-case scenario of course is it gets overturned. But I get the feeling that we're probably not in that particular line of thought at the minute. You are looking at a reduction on appeal and a link to some of these mitigating circumstances.
"I get the sense that it will go down that road of an appeal and you’re probably looking to get this reduced in the first instance. I think to get it overturned is a bit of a stretch based on where we are with some of those other factors as we've said, but we've not seen the appeal yet."
Many Everton fans feel the club is being harshly set as an example, with the Premier League coming down especially hard on the Toffees because of the plans for an independent regulator to come in.
Plumley agrees that Everton's penalty is somewhat of a tipping point, explaining: "Because there's been that notion of perhaps there was never going to be a punishment for breaking these restrictions, it does feel like a watershed moment.
"We've never seen the Premier League deduct points for these profit and sustainability regulations, and that's part of the backstory here and some of the wider narrative that we need to be aware of. There is no precedent, there is no benchmark.
"This is the first points deduction link to these regulations. It is the only one of its kind. And I think that's interesting given the fact that we've had 10 years of these regulations within that league, and this is the first time that a sanction has been met."
The commission that dished out the ruling stated Everton did not breach the rules to gain a "sporting advantage", though that a sporting advantage had to be inferred by the fact that Everton had overspent.
They successfully staved off the drop last term, but sides such as Leeds United and Leicester City, who both went down at Everton's expense, are now reportedly set to sue the Toffees in response to the deduction.
Plumley believes this raises an important point, saying: "Of course, Everton didn't want to be in relegation battles in the last few years and probably wanted to be higher up in the table.
"But that notion of sporting advantage can have different connotations depending on the level and I think that's where the compensation challenges from the likes of Burnley, Leeds, Southampton and Leicester become interesting because then we're talking about a sporting advantage that is maybe the difference between staying up or not.
"We might not see that necessarily see that as a sporting success, but it might be termed as a sporting advantage over other clubs."
Everton fans protested the decision by holding up pink banners, bearing the Premier League emblem and the word "Corrupt", during Sunday's 3-0 loss to Manchester United at Goodison Park.
Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester and an Evertonian, has claimed there was an "abuse of process" during the case.
Burnham accused the Premier League of "regulatory malpractice" for attempting to introduce a sanctions policy specific to Everton's case during the disciplinary process.
Guardiola confident Man City can avoid fourth straight loss
Pep Guardiola is facing the prospect of losing four consecutive matches for the first time in his career but is confident Manchester City do not need extra reassurance.
All three of City's recent losses have come in different competitions, first falling to Tottenham in the EFL Cup round of 16 before following it up with defeats to Bournemouth in the Premier League and Sporting CP in the Champions League.
It is the first time the Citizens have been on such a run since doing so between May and August 2021, while in the same season, it is the first time since April 2018.
In the Premier League, Guardiola's men were on a 32-match unbeaten run before their defeat to Bournemouth, and they have only lost two consecutive top-flight matches three times under the Spaniard before.
The Spaniard has been vocal about his team's recent injury struggles, and will once again be without Jack Grealish, despite his recent England call-up, John Stones and Ruben Dias for the trip to Brighton on Saturday.
Bernardo Silva said the team were in a "dark place" after their game at Sporting on Tuesday, but Guardiola does not believe he needs to provide any extra motivation to help get his players back to winning ways.
"I don't think [the players need extra reassurance]. Of course, we are not used to losing three games in three different competitions, but it is football, and it has happened," Guardiola said.
"We know the reason why we struggle, but we are looking forward to this game and after the international break, and after that a few players will be back and recovered. All the little problems we have with players will be solved. I hope.
"There always is a first time [to lose four straight]. Hopefully, it is not the case.
"Twenty minutes against Fulham we were not good, against Bournemouth we were not good, but the rest of the games we were good. We are good. We will see what happens."
Khadija 'Bunny' Shaw's record-breaking hat-trick powers Manchester City to 4-0 victory Over Tottenham Hotspur Women
Reggae Girl Khadija "Bunny" Shaw delivered a historic performance on Friday, scoring a hat-trick that led Manchester City Women to a dominant 4-0 victory over Tottenham Hotspur Women in the Barclays Women's Super League (WSL). Shaw's incredible feat helped City extend their lead at the top of the table, reaching 19 points, four clear of Chelsea, who have played two games fewer.
Shaw, who has now scored seven goals in the league this season, wasted no time asserting her dominance, scoring just moments after kick-off. Bursting through on goal, she slotted the ball into the bottom corner, giving City an immediate 1-0 lead. In the 15th minute, Shaw struck again, towering over defenders to head home a looping cross from Lauren Hemp. Tottenham’s goalkeeper and fellow Jamaican, Rebecca Spencer, got a hand to it, but Shaw's powerful header proved unstoppable.
City continued to apply pressure, and in the 66th minute, Jill Roord added to the scoreline. After evading a challenge, Hemp found Roord in the box, who shifted the ball onto her left foot and fired it into the roof of the net, making it 3-0. Just a minute later, Shaw completed her hat-trick. Hemp, instrumental throughout, drove down the byline and delivered a precise cross into the box, where Shaw was perfectly positioned to knock it home.
Shaw's hat-trick set new records in the WSL. She became the first player to record three hat-tricks against the same team and broke her teammate Vivianne Miedema’s record with her sixth career hat-trick in the league.
Facing her fellow Reggae Girlz teammates Drew Spence and Rebecca Spencer, Shaw showed why she is one of the most prolific strikers in the league, continuing to propel Manchester City to the top of the WSL standings with her record-breaking performance.
Arsenal 5-0 Brighton: Five-star hosts run riot in statement win
Arsenal got back to winning ways in the Women's Super League, brushing aside high-flying Brighton with an emphatic 5-0 victory at the Emirates Stadium.
Three goals in 12 first-half minutes had put the Gunners out of sight to ensure Renee Slegers continued her unbeaten start as interim boss.
Beth Mead returned to the starting line-up and took just 13 minutes to get her name on the scoresheet, cutting inside from the right to bend a lovely shot into the far-bottom corner.
Brighton were picked apart down their left again shortly after, with Kim Little fizzing a dangerous low cross into the six-yard box, and Caitlin Foord was on hand to turn it in from close range.
Three minutes later, Frida Maanum got a stunning third, whipping a delightful finish into the top-right corner from the edge of the box, and Foord should have got their fourth on the stroke of half-time but fired against the post while off-balance.
Substitute Lina Hurting then rose high in the 76th minute to flick on a corner which neither Sophie Baggaley nor Guro Bergsvand could keep out despite their best efforts.
Stina Blackstenius was dragged down in the penalty area in stoppage time, and Alessia Russo confidently stepped up to bury the resulting spot-kick to send Arsenal fourth in the table.
Data Debrief: Off the mark at home
Slegers looks to have settled into life as Arsenal's interim boss seamlessly, and Arsenal avoided a slip-up against a tricky opponent to register their first home win of the season.
They have now won all 13 of their WSL meetings with Brighton by an aggregate score of 48-2, while it is the fifth clean sheet Arsenal have kept against them at home.
Mead also improved on her already impressive record against Brighton - against no side does she have more combined goals and assists than the Seagulls (13 - eight goals, five assists).
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