Everton's appeal against their 10-point deduction for financial breaches is unlikely to be overturned, according to football finance expert Dan Plumley.
The Toffees received the heaviest points deduction in Premier League history earlier this month, leaving them in the relegation zone after they were found to have broken the league's profit and sustainability rules, spending £19.5m over the allowed limit across four seasons between 2018 and 2022.
The club is appealing the ruling, looking to use mitigating factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the war between Ukraine and Russia, which led to the cut of financial ties with Alisher Usmanov, a commercial partner of the club.
However, Plumley believes even if Everton's appeal is successful, the deduction is more likely to be reduced than overturned, telling Stats Perform: "I think there's going to be mitigation and proportionality. Those are the things that Everton are focusing on.
"The best-case scenario of course is it gets overturned. But I get the feeling that we're probably not in that particular line of thought at the minute. You are looking at a reduction on appeal and a link to some of these mitigating circumstances.
"I get the sense that it will go down that road of an appeal and you’re probably looking to get this reduced in the first instance. I think to get it overturned is a bit of a stretch based on where we are with some of those other factors as we've said, but we've not seen the appeal yet."
Many Everton fans feel the club is being harshly set as an example, with the Premier League coming down especially hard on the Toffees because of the plans for an independent regulator to come in.
Plumley agrees that Everton's penalty is somewhat of a tipping point, explaining: "Because there's been that notion of perhaps there was never going to be a punishment for breaking these restrictions, it does feel like a watershed moment.
"We've never seen the Premier League deduct points for these profit and sustainability regulations, and that's part of the backstory here and some of the wider narrative that we need to be aware of. There is no precedent, there is no benchmark.
"This is the first points deduction link to these regulations. It is the only one of its kind. And I think that's interesting given the fact that we've had 10 years of these regulations within that league, and this is the first time that a sanction has been met."
The commission that dished out the ruling stated Everton did not breach the rules to gain a "sporting advantage", though that a sporting advantage had to be inferred by the fact that Everton had overspent.
They successfully staved off the drop last term, but sides such as Leeds United and Leicester City, who both went down at Everton's expense, are now reportedly set to sue the Toffees in response to the deduction.
Plumley believes this raises an important point, saying: "Of course, Everton didn't want to be in relegation battles in the last few years and probably wanted to be higher up in the table.
"But that notion of sporting advantage can have different connotations depending on the level and I think that's where the compensation challenges from the likes of Burnley, Leeds, Southampton and Leicester become interesting because then we're talking about a sporting advantage that is maybe the difference between staying up or not.
"We might not see that necessarily see that as a sporting success, but it might be termed as a sporting advantage over other clubs."
Everton fans protested the decision by holding up pink banners, bearing the Premier League emblem and the word "Corrupt", during Sunday's 3-0 loss to Manchester United at Goodison Park.
Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester and an Evertonian, has claimed there was an "abuse of process" during the case.
Burnham accused the Premier League of "regulatory malpractice" for attempting to introduce a sanctions policy specific to Everton's case during the disciplinary process.
Champions League success does not define Bayern move, says Kane
Harry Kane refuted suggestions Champions League glory this season will decide the success of his Bayern Munich move, after Tuesday's 2-2 draw with Real Madrid in the semi-final first leg.
Kane scored from the penalty spot to make it 2-1 to Bayern early in the second half, just four minutes after Leroy Sane had levelled with a thunderous finish at Allianz Arena.
Having finished with his usual ease from 12 yards, Kane became the first English player to be directly involved in 11 goals in a single Champions League campaign.
Kane is the joint-top scorer across Europe's big five leagues in all competitions this season (43 – level with Kylian Mbappe), while the England captain now has the most combined goals and assists of any player (54 – 43 goals and 11 assists).
Regardless of whether Bayern can overcome Madrid in the second leg next week and go all the way in the final, Kane insists his move to Germany is a long-term mission, rather than a one-year aim for success.
When asked on TNT Sports if winning the Champions League would define his Bayern move as a success, Kane responded: "I don't think so.
"I'm here for many years, it's not just a one-off year that I've come for. Of course, the expectation at the start of the year was to win trophies and it hasn't gone our way in the Bundesliga or the cup, but the Champions League is the biggest one of them all.
"If we can somehow get our hands on that one, it'll be an amazing season, but there is a long way to go.
"These are the big games under the lights [that I'm here for]. The atmosphere was incredible. I'm sure at the Bernabeu it'll be the same. It's exactly why I’ve come, I wanted to play in these big games, these big moments, and it's no bigger than next week.
"It'll be tough, we know their history in the competition, but we can take a lot of positives from today. There's a couple of small details that we need to get right because we can get punished in a couple of quick moments, but we can take a lot from this game."
Kane now has 401 goals for club and country, having moved past the quadruple-century mark with his double against Eintracht Frankfurt on Saturday.
Including his well-taken penalty against Madrid, the former Tottenham striker now has a personal-best 43 goals in all competitions this season as well.
Yet his focus remains solely on the next game, with Stuttgart to come on Saturday before the return visit to Madrid.
"It's been a good season [personally] so far, but it's always about the next game, the next big game, and it's next week, away from home against Real Madrid," he added.
"Everything we're fighting for this year is in this competition, so we've got to find a way to get it done. It's going to be tough, the Bernabeu, Real Madrid in the Champions League, but we go there with full belief, it's 0-0 and we go there for the win."
Kane's second-half strike on Tuesday came after Sane had cancelled out an opener from Vinicius Junior, whose late penalty then ensured the shares were spoiled at Allianz Arena.
With the pressure on Bayern's spot-kick, Madrid's Jude Bellingham appeared to offer Kane a few words of advice – though the Bayern striker was in his own space preparing to face Andriy Lunin.
"I don't know what he was saying," Kane added on his England team-mate's quiet word. "I saw him there, mumbling something, but I'll have to ask him what he said.
"Once I'm in that zone I'm just trying to block everything out – I'm sure he was saying something to try and put me off. Thankfully it didn't do anything."
Waterhouse peaking at the right time; take seven-match unbeaten run into semis after blanking Tivoli Gardens
It is often said that it is not how you start, but how you finish that counts. Waterhouse, by virtue of their current vein of form in the Wray and Nephew Jamaica Premier League, has embodied that saying.
In fact, to say that the Drewsland-based team is rising to the occasion when it matters most would be an understatement, as they recovered from an inconsistent run in the preliminary stage, where they placed sixth, and are now in the semi-final.
Waterhouse confirmed their spot in the final four on Monday after they downed Tivoli Gardens 2-0 in second leg quarterfinal action, for a 3-1 aggregate scoreline, at Sabina Park.
Javane Bryan (14th) and Andre Fletcher (45+6) were on target for Waterhouse, who has booked a semi-final date with reigning champions Mount Pleasant FA. First leg action is scheduled for Sunday at the same venue.
With his side taking a seven-match unbeaten run into that contest, Waterhouse’s assistant coach Damion Gordon is confident, but aware that they will be up against a Mount Pleasant team with great attributes, quality and real individual talent. Waterhouse last made a deep run in the league in the truncated 2021 season, when they lost the final to Cavalier in a penalty shootout.
“I think our chances of winning are just like any other team before the game is played. So, we just have to prepare as best as we can for Mount Pleasant, which is a very difficult team, but again, at this stage of the tournament, you just have to bring your A game and come Sunday I think the better team will win,” Gordon said.
Reflecting on the performance, he lauded the team for character and fight shown on the day.
“We are grateful, we always take a hungry step towards everything and tonight (Monday) we did that. I think we started very well; I still think that we had some more chances that we should have capitalised on, but we are grateful for the win nonetheless. Hats off to Tivoli, I think they really pressed us, and I think they forced us in terms of testing our defensive shape and fortitude which came to the fore,” Gordon noted.
The contest started in a sombre manner, as Tivoli Gardens lost young starlet Nickalia Fuller with what appeared to be a broken right leg, after he went into a tough challenge with Waterhouse’s Shamarie Dallas. The physical and psychological impact of that challenge later took effect on Dallas, who wept openly as he also left the field soon after.
Still, Waterhouse maintained their composure, and later found the lead when Bryan fired home his 16th goal of the season from close range, after sloppy play by Tivoli Gardens captain Odean Pennycooke allowed Revaldo Mitchell through on goal to get off the initial effort that was blocked.
Tivoli Gardens came into their own and tried to play their game, but were unable to make their half chances count, as Alton Lewis fired wide from inside the 18-yard box, in the 28th minute.
Nine minutes later, substitute Lennox Russell, who entered the contest for Fuller, had Tivoli’s best chance of the half, as his well-struck right-footer from an angle, was kept out by Kemar Foster at his near post.
Waterhouse regained their attacking fire at the backend of the half, and found a second in time added, when Leonardo Jibbison’s cross found an unmarked Fletcher, who made no mistakes with a well-taken left-footed finish for his 12th of the season, which put the two-time champions 2-0 up at the break.
Needing a goal to stay in the contest, Tivoli Gardens went straight to work on the resumption and almost pulled one back a minute in, but Russell’s strike was again kept out by Foster.
Waterhouse went close to a third in the 63rd minute, but Denardo Thomas’s powerfully struck effort from inside the 18-yrd box, just went over the crossbar.
From there, it was all Tivoli Gardens, as the West Kingston team launched a series of marauding attacks in a sustained spell of pressure, but they found Waterhouse defence in a defiant mood, as they braved the incursion.
Besides Waterhouse’s resolute defending, Tivoli Gardens were left down by a lack of composure in the final third at times, as Justin Dunn hit the upright in the 70th minute, while Rodico Wellington’s freekick in the 85th minute was again blocked by Foster.
Tivoli Gardens Head coach Jerome Waite cursed his team’s luck on the day, but in the same breath, expressed delight with how the season went.
“The youngster’s leg is broken, which is really sad, and I am not one to bash referees, but we all saw what happened. Besides that, we created chances throughout the second half, but faulty execution resulted in us not scoring, and we also have to give Waterhouse’s goalkeeper credit as well,” he said.
“In the end, Tivoli Gardens had an extremely outstanding season. This is not something that anybody looked forward to, so I have to give the guys credit,” Waite added.
Coventry City 1-2 Ipswich Town: Burgess puts Tractor Boys on brink of promotion
Ipswich Town took a huge step to Premier League promotion after Cameron Burgess snatched a second-half winner in Tuesday's 2-1 victory over Coventry City.
Kieran McKenna's side require just one point from their final Championship game against League One-bound Huddersfield Town to go up, after a decisive victory at the Coventry Building Society Arena.
Kieffer Moore blasted in an eighth-minute opener for the visitors after Wes Burns' crafty cutback pass, easing the pressure on Ipswich and dampening the top-two hopes of third-placed Leeds United.
Haji Wright levelled in the second half, only for Burgess to squeeze a winning goal past Bradley Collins five minutes later, putting Ipswich on the brink of top-flight football for the first time since their relegation in 2002.
A draw against Huddersfield, who are 23rd and three points adrift of safety, would secure promotion at Portman Road, marking just the fourth instance of back-to-back promotions in the Premier League era.
Having managed to climb out of League One, McKenna's entertaining side would join Watford, rivals Norwich City and Southampton as the only sides to achieve the feat.
Data Debrief: Ipswich end winless run at perfect time
Prior to this game, only five teams had won fewer points in the Championship than Ipswich's six since the beginning of April (W1 D3 L1).
Yet McKenna's men refused to let their top-flight push derail as the Tractor Boys ended a four-game winless run to move within touching distance of history.
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