EPL

Barnes expects Liverpool top-three return but backs Man City for title

By Sports Desk July 24, 2023

John Barnes backed Liverpool for a top-three Premier League finish next season, although the Reds great believes the title race will be between Arsenal and Manchester City again.

Pep Guardiola's City overcame Arsenal in a two-horse title tussle last campaign, with Mikel Arteta's Gunners already strengthening for next term by signing Declan Rice, Kai Havertz and Jurrien Timber.

Jurgen Klopp's side were far from their best in the 2021-22 season but battled to a fifth-place finish to secure Europa League football for the upcoming campaign.

Liverpool have bolstered their midfield options by bringing in Alexis Mac Allister and Dominik Szoboszlai, with Barnes expecting the Reds to return to the top four this time round.

"As I've mentioned in the last year the injury situation really worked against us last season," Barnes, a two-time First Division winner with Liverpool, told Stats Perform.

"And of course, from that perspective, in terms of the age of the players we have to reduce the age and we did that in terms of the young players we had.

"So, it's a bit of a transitional period, not just in terms of the injuries and not having all the players available, but also in terms of having younger players coming into the squad.

"We have to give them time to develop and to grow to show their consistency. So, I have no doubt that we will be back, I'm not going to say we're going to win the league, but we'll be much closer to the top and I fully expect us to be in the top three next season."

Experienced midfielders Jordan Henderson and Fabinho, two staples of Liverpool's title-winning side under Klopp in the 2019-20 term, are expected to depart for Saudi Arabia.

The additions of Mac Allister and Szoboszlai will aid Klopp's cause but former England international Barnes believes Guardiola's City will again have too much quality to be overthrown at the top.

He added: "City are favourites, I think Arsenal have strengthened very well in terms of the players they've got with Declan Rice and Havertz, therefore they will be strong once again.

"There was a little bit of inconsistency towards the end of last season, but that will stand them in good stead. So I'll make those two, alongside ourselves, those two will be the main targets.

"Manchester United will also be stronger as well because of the harmony that they have within that squad and the lack of uncertainty in terms of the manager and the players and who's in charge.

"Chelsea will be interesting, to see how [Mauricio] Pochettino handles that situation. And Tottenham, with a new manager [Ange Postecoglou] from Australia, are they going to take that if all of a sudden they don't win matches?

"Are they then going to be negative because he's not a European? So yeah, I think that probably leaves ourselves, Arsenal and Manchester United [for the top four]."

Former Reds midfielder Lucas Leiva echoed Barnes' sentiment, suggesting Liverpool are strong enough to compete alongside the likes of City, Arsenal and United for the title.

"The top six, normally you expect all of them to challenge," the Brazilian said. "City is in a great moment, Arsenal are improving every year as well.

"I think Chelsea are playing only in the league this year. I think that could be better for them. I would say they could concentrate only on the league.

"And Liverpool like every season will be stronger. United as well. So the teams that we expect to challenge. City today are the team to beat but Liverpool are strong enough to compete for sure."

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    Liverpool’s Cody Gakpo expressed his pride in seeing compatriot Ryan Gravenberch show off his qualities ‘to the whole world’ after a fine start to the Premier League season.

    Though the Netherlands pair did not become teammates at Liverpool until late summer of 2023, Gakpo knew well Gravenberch’s talents from their respective Eredivisie spells with PSV Eindhoven and Ajax.

    Now in his second season at Anfield, Gravenberch has drawn widespread plaudits for his form in a new deeper-lying midfield role under new head coach Arne Slot, having largely been used as a substitute under Jurgen Klopp.

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    Southampton, meanwhile, welcome the Reds to St. Mary’s on the back of a 2-0 defeat to Wolves ahead of the international break, leaving them bottom of the table after 11 games of the season.

    The Saints are the lowest scorers in the Premier League this season (seven), while only Crystal Palace (5.1%) have a lower shot conversion rate than Russell Martin’s side (6.2%). Just 30.1% of Southampton’s shots have been on target this term (34/113), a league-low ratio.

    However, the Southampton head coach is relishing the opportunity of facing Liverpool, with his players performing well against the likes of Arsenal and Manchester City already this term.

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    "I think we showed the guys the Premier League table last season and how much it changed by the end and by the end of December. But it's honestly such an exciting month.

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    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    Southampton – Mateus Fernandes

    Fernandes has become a mainstay in the Southampton team, starting the last eight Premier League games in a row, and has been one of Martin’s standout performers in a lacklustre start to the campaign.

    In the Saints’ 2-0 defeat to Wolves last time out, the Portuguese contributed a team-high expected goals (xG) tally of 0.22 from his three shots, while only Yukinari Sugawara (10) and Flynn Downes (12) have created more chances in the top-flight than Fernandes (eight) this season.

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    He has also been directly involved in 67% of Liverpool’s Premier League goals this season (14/21 – eight goals, six assists), the highest ratio by a player for any side in the division in 2024-25. Indeed, only Matt Le Tissier for Southampton in 1993-94 (69% - 34/49) has scored or assisted a higher proportion of a side’s goals in a single season in the competition.

    MATCH PREDICTION: LIVERPOOL WIN

    Liverpool have won nine of their 11 Premier League games under new head coach Slot (D1 L1). A win over Southampton will see the Dutchman become the joint-fastest manager to reach 10 wins from the start of a Premier League career (12 games), alongside Guus Hiddink in May 2009 and Carlo Ancelotti in November 2009 (both with Chelsea).

    The Reds’ last Premier League game against the Saints was a 4-4 away draw in May 2023 – they conceded as many goals in that game as they had in their previous six visits to St Mary’s combined.

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    This will also be the first Premier League match between the side starting the day bottom of the table and the side starting the day top since April 2023, and Southampton’s 3-3 draw away to Arsenal. The league leaders are unbeaten in 14 such matches (W12 D2) since Wolves won 2-1 against Manchester United in February 2011.

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    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Southampton – 9.7%

    Draw – 12.6%

    Liverpool – 77.7%

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