EPL

Ruben Neves: It would need a catastrophe for Wolves to go down now

By Sports Desk May 07, 2023

Wolves captain Ruben Neves admits only a catastrophe can send them down now.

Toti Gomes’ early header earned a 1-0 win over Aston Villa on Saturday – a fourth straight home victory – and moved Julen Lopetegui’s men onto 40 points.

They are 13th, 10 points clear of the Premier League’s bottom three, and depending on other results could be mathematically safe by Monday night.

It comes after Wolves were bottom at Christmas and Neves knows their job is virtually done.

He told the club’s official site: “It’s not a secret for anyone, with 40 points we are pretty much there. A catastrophe needs to happen. It was really important for us and we can breathe a bit better now.

“It’s a big relief to come out of this fight and to enjoy the three games left in the league. We knew if we won this game, we’d be really close to our goal. It’s really hard to go down on 40 points.

“We had a bad start and changed coach, then the World Cup and we changed coach again.

“A lot of injuries, a lot of players out, but we wanted to achieve our main goal.”

Villa’s European hopes took a hit to keep them eighth and a point behind Brighton, having played three more games.

They host the Seagulls on the final day of the season and also face Tottenham and Liverpool, the other two sides immediately above them before the end of the campaign.

Successive 1-0 defeats could prove fatal in their quest to return to Europe for the first time since 2010-11 and midfielder John McGinn revealed his frustrations.

“We lost a goal from a set-piece, which is never nice, and you give yourselves a tougher task. We created a lot of chances to go and equalise and get more from the game,” he told the club’s official site.

“It’s definitely frustrating. There are a lot of things we could have done better, but overall, we controlled a lot of it.

“We’ve got to be a lot smarter in the final areas with our decision-making like we have been over the last few months.

“As much as when we were winning we weren’t getting carried away, it’s important we don’t let two defeats hamper what could be an exciting end to the season.

“We’ve made it extremely difficult for ourselves now but the challenge is still there for us. We’ll be aiming for three wins in the last three games.”

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    The Saints are the lowest scorers in the Premier League this season (seven), while only Crystal Palace (5.1%) have a lower shot conversion rate than Russell Martin’s side (6.2%). Just 30.1% of Southampton’s shots have been on target this term (34/113), a league-low ratio.

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    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    Southampton – Mateus Fernandes

    Fernandes has become a mainstay in the Southampton team, starting the last eight Premier League games in a row, and has been one of Martin’s standout performers in a lacklustre start to the campaign.

    In the Saints’ 2-0 defeat to Wolves last time out, the Portuguese contributed a team-high expected goals (xG) tally of 0.22 from his three shots, while only Yukinari Sugawara (10) and Flynn Downes (12) have created more chances in the top-flight than Fernandes (eight) this season.

    Liverpool – Mohamed Salah

    Salah has both scored and assisted in the same match 35 times in the Premier League (including four already this term), just one shy of Wayne Rooney’s record of 36 games with both a goal and an assist in the competition. The Egyptian has been directly involved in 11 goals (seven goals, four assists) in 11 Premier League appearances against Southampton.

    He has also been directly involved in 67% of Liverpool’s Premier League goals this season (14/21 – eight goals, six assists), the highest ratio by a player for any side in the division in 2024-25. Indeed, only Matt Le Tissier for Southampton in 1993-94 (69% - 34/49) has scored or assisted a higher proportion of a side’s goals in a single season in the competition.

    MATCH PREDICTION: LIVERPOOL WIN

    Liverpool have won nine of their 11 Premier League games under new head coach Slot (D1 L1). A win over Southampton will see the Dutchman become the joint-fastest manager to reach 10 wins from the start of a Premier League career (12 games), alongside Guus Hiddink in May 2009 and Carlo Ancelotti in November 2009 (both with Chelsea).

    The Reds’ last Premier League game against the Saints was a 4-4 away draw in May 2023 – they conceded as many goals in that game as they had in their previous six visits to St Mary’s combined.

    Southampton have won just one of their last 14 Premier League games against Liverpool (D3 L10), a 1-0 home victory in January 2021.

    This will also be the first Premier League match between the side starting the day bottom of the table and the side starting the day top since April 2023, and Southampton’s 3-3 draw away to Arsenal. The league leaders are unbeaten in 14 such matches (W12 D2) since Wolves won 2-1 against Manchester United in February 2011.

    However, Southampton have only lost one of their last eight Premier League home games against sides starting the day at the summit (W2 D5) and are unbeaten in their last four (W2 D2 – including a 1-0 win over Liverpool in January 2021) since a 0-1 defeat to Man City in May 2018.

    But Martin’s side have lost nine of their 11 Premier League games this season (W1 D1). Only seven sides in English top-flight history have reached 10 defeats in 12 or fewer matches from the start of a campaign, with all seven going on to be relegated.

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Southampton – 9.7%

    Draw – 12.6%

    Liverpool – 77.7%

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