EPL

Premier League predictions: As Man City title tilt set to roll on, can Chelsea frustrate Arsenal?

By Sports Desk April 28, 2023

If a statement win was what Manchester City were after against Arsenal on Wednesday, then they got it.

City thrashed the Premier League leaders 4-1 at the Etihad Stadium to close the gap to the Gunners to two points, and Pep Guardiola's side still have two games in hand.

The reigning champions play again on Sunday, with a trip to Fulham on the cards. Arsenal, meanwhile, are next in action on Tuesday, when they host struggling Chelsea, who have lost every game under interim boss Frank Lampard.

At the other end of the table, Leicester City face Everton in a relegation six-pointer. In the race for Europe, Tottenham travel to Liverpool.

Fulham v Manchester City

City have won their last 13 meetings with Fulham in all competitions, only winning more consecutively against Watford (15 – 2013-2022) and West Brom (14 – 2012-2018) in their history.

Erling Haaland has scored 33 Premier League goals for Manchester City this season, a record in a 38-game season. He is one away from equalling the overall record for a single season, set by Andrew Cole in 1993-94 and matched by Alan Shearer in 1994-95 (34 goals) in 42-game campaigns. This will be his 30th appearance in the competition, with his 33 goals already more than 21 teams managed in total in their first 30 Premier League games.

Pep Guardiola has won 25 of his 38 Premier League away games against London sides, the highest win rate of any visiting manager to take charge of at least 10 such games (66 per cent). All eight of his defeats in the capital have come against either Tottenham (five) or Chelsea (three).

Best bet – City to avoid defeat: Fulham are winless in their last 15 Premier League meetings with City (D3 L12) since a 3-1 away win in April 2009. They have lost the last 10 in a row by an aggregate score of 28-4.

Long shot – Fulham to keep a clean sheet: Fulham have kept just one clean sheet in their 29 Premier League games against City, a goalless draw in March 2004. 

Opta prediction: City, as expected, are made big favourites (64.8 per cent). The draw is rated at 21.9 per cent, while Fulham are given a 13.3 per cent chance of victory.

 

Liverpool v Tottenham

Liverpool have lost just one of their last 20 Premier League games against Spurs (W13 D6) and are unbeaten in 10 since a 4-1 loss at Wembley Stadium in October 2017.

Tottenham are winless in five Premier League away games, losing as many games in this run (three) as they had in their previous 16 on the road beforehand (W8 D5). It is their longest run without an away league win since a run of 12 between February and November 2019.

Liverpool have won their last three Premier League matches, despite conceding in each match. The last time they won four games in a row was in November and December earlier this season, also conceding in all four victories.

Best bet – Mohamed Salah to score or assist: Salah has been involved in 11 goals in his last eight home games in all competitions (eight goals, three assists), scoring at least once in each of his last six. Since he joined Liverpool in 2017, no player has scored more Premier League goals against Tottenham than the Egyptian (seven).

Long shot – Liverpool under 1.5 goals: Tottenham have conceded 31 away goals in the Premier League this season, already their most in a single campaign since 2008-09 (35). They have only kept two league clean sheets outside of London this season, doing so in victories at Nottingham Forest (2-0) and Brighton and Hove Albion (1-0).

Opta prediction: The supercomputer hands Liverpool a 55.2 per cent probability of winning this one, while Spurs are given just a 20.0 per cent shot. The draw has a 24.8 per cent likelihood.

Leicester City v Everton

Following their 2-0 win at Goodison Park in November, Leicester are looking to complete a Premier League double over Everton for just the second time, previously doing so in their 2015-16 title winning campaign.

Everton have won their last two Premier League away games against Leicester – they have never won on three consecutive visits to the Foxes in their league history.

Dean Smith has won four and lost none of his six Premier League meetings with Everton, winning three of his four at home against the Toffees. Only Antonio Conte (seven) has faced Everton more without ever losing to them as a manager in the competition.

Best bet – Leicester to concede: Despite Everton's woeful form in front of goal this season, they should be confident of getting on the scoresheet, given Leicester have conceded in each of their last 18 Premier League games, their joint-longest run without a clean sheet in the competition. 

Long shot – Everton to win: Everton are winless in their last 12 Premier League away games (D5 L7). Since beating Brighton 2-0 in August 2021, they have won just two of their last 33 away league games (D10 L21).

Opta prediction: Everton won this fixture last season, but Opta does not give them much chance of repeating that feat on Monday. Their chances of victory are rated at only 21.8 per cent, while the draw is 26.3 per cent, making Leicester (51.9 per cent) the clear favourites.

 

Arsenal v Chelsea

Arsenal have won four of their last five Premier League games against Chelsea (L1), as many as they had in their previous 23 against the Blues (D6 L13).

The Gunners are looking to win three consecutive Premier League games against Chelsea for the first time since February 2004. Indeed, they could achieve their second league double in three seasons against the Blues, having done so just once in the previous 20 campaigns beforehand (2003-04).

Chelsea have lost all five matches in all competitions since Lampard's return to the club, their worst losing run since a six-game run in October and November 1993. The Blues have lost 19 games in total this season, last losing 20 in a single campaign in 1987-88.

Best bet – Bukayo Saka 2+ shots on target: Saka has been directly involved in 16 goals in his 16 Premier League home games this season (nine goals, seven assists). He has both scored and assisted a goal in three different games at Emirates Stadium in the competition this term.

Long shot – Arsenal to fail to score: Only Southampton have kept fewer home clean sheets than Arsenal (three) in the Premier League this season. However, the Gunners have only failed to score in one of their 16 at the Emirates so far this term (0-0 vs Newcastle United in January).

Opta prediction: Arsenal have had a wobble that might prove costly in the title race but will be determined to bounce back. Opta makes them the favourites (43.5 per cent), with Chelsea at 28.2 per cent. The draw is rated at 28.3 per cent.

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