EPL

Premier League predictions: As Man City title tilt set to roll on, can Chelsea frustrate Arsenal?

By Sports Desk April 28, 2023

If a statement win was what Manchester City were after against Arsenal on Wednesday, then they got it.

City thrashed the Premier League leaders 4-1 at the Etihad Stadium to close the gap to the Gunners to two points, and Pep Guardiola's side still have two games in hand.

The reigning champions play again on Sunday, with a trip to Fulham on the cards. Arsenal, meanwhile, are next in action on Tuesday, when they host struggling Chelsea, who have lost every game under interim boss Frank Lampard.

At the other end of the table, Leicester City face Everton in a relegation six-pointer. In the race for Europe, Tottenham travel to Liverpool.

Fulham v Manchester City

City have won their last 13 meetings with Fulham in all competitions, only winning more consecutively against Watford (15 – 2013-2022) and West Brom (14 – 2012-2018) in their history.

Erling Haaland has scored 33 Premier League goals for Manchester City this season, a record in a 38-game season. He is one away from equalling the overall record for a single season, set by Andrew Cole in 1993-94 and matched by Alan Shearer in 1994-95 (34 goals) in 42-game campaigns. This will be his 30th appearance in the competition, with his 33 goals already more than 21 teams managed in total in their first 30 Premier League games.

Pep Guardiola has won 25 of his 38 Premier League away games against London sides, the highest win rate of any visiting manager to take charge of at least 10 such games (66 per cent). All eight of his defeats in the capital have come against either Tottenham (five) or Chelsea (three).

Best bet – City to avoid defeat: Fulham are winless in their last 15 Premier League meetings with City (D3 L12) since a 3-1 away win in April 2009. They have lost the last 10 in a row by an aggregate score of 28-4.

Long shot – Fulham to keep a clean sheet: Fulham have kept just one clean sheet in their 29 Premier League games against City, a goalless draw in March 2004. 

Opta prediction: City, as expected, are made big favourites (64.8 per cent). The draw is rated at 21.9 per cent, while Fulham are given a 13.3 per cent chance of victory.

 

Liverpool v Tottenham

Liverpool have lost just one of their last 20 Premier League games against Spurs (W13 D6) and are unbeaten in 10 since a 4-1 loss at Wembley Stadium in October 2017.

Tottenham are winless in five Premier League away games, losing as many games in this run (three) as they had in their previous 16 on the road beforehand (W8 D5). It is their longest run without an away league win since a run of 12 between February and November 2019.

Liverpool have won their last three Premier League matches, despite conceding in each match. The last time they won four games in a row was in November and December earlier this season, also conceding in all four victories.

Best bet – Mohamed Salah to score or assist: Salah has been involved in 11 goals in his last eight home games in all competitions (eight goals, three assists), scoring at least once in each of his last six. Since he joined Liverpool in 2017, no player has scored more Premier League goals against Tottenham than the Egyptian (seven).

Long shot – Liverpool under 1.5 goals: Tottenham have conceded 31 away goals in the Premier League this season, already their most in a single campaign since 2008-09 (35). They have only kept two league clean sheets outside of London this season, doing so in victories at Nottingham Forest (2-0) and Brighton and Hove Albion (1-0).

Opta prediction: The supercomputer hands Liverpool a 55.2 per cent probability of winning this one, while Spurs are given just a 20.0 per cent shot. The draw has a 24.8 per cent likelihood.

Leicester City v Everton

Following their 2-0 win at Goodison Park in November, Leicester are looking to complete a Premier League double over Everton for just the second time, previously doing so in their 2015-16 title winning campaign.

Everton have won their last two Premier League away games against Leicester – they have never won on three consecutive visits to the Foxes in their league history.

Dean Smith has won four and lost none of his six Premier League meetings with Everton, winning three of his four at home against the Toffees. Only Antonio Conte (seven) has faced Everton more without ever losing to them as a manager in the competition.

Best bet – Leicester to concede: Despite Everton's woeful form in front of goal this season, they should be confident of getting on the scoresheet, given Leicester have conceded in each of their last 18 Premier League games, their joint-longest run without a clean sheet in the competition. 

Long shot – Everton to win: Everton are winless in their last 12 Premier League away games (D5 L7). Since beating Brighton 2-0 in August 2021, they have won just two of their last 33 away league games (D10 L21).

Opta prediction: Everton won this fixture last season, but Opta does not give them much chance of repeating that feat on Monday. Their chances of victory are rated at only 21.8 per cent, while the draw is 26.3 per cent, making Leicester (51.9 per cent) the clear favourites.

 

Arsenal v Chelsea

Arsenal have won four of their last five Premier League games against Chelsea (L1), as many as they had in their previous 23 against the Blues (D6 L13).

The Gunners are looking to win three consecutive Premier League games against Chelsea for the first time since February 2004. Indeed, they could achieve their second league double in three seasons against the Blues, having done so just once in the previous 20 campaigns beforehand (2003-04).

Chelsea have lost all five matches in all competitions since Lampard's return to the club, their worst losing run since a six-game run in October and November 1993. The Blues have lost 19 games in total this season, last losing 20 in a single campaign in 1987-88.

Best bet – Bukayo Saka 2+ shots on target: Saka has been directly involved in 16 goals in his 16 Premier League home games this season (nine goals, seven assists). He has both scored and assisted a goal in three different games at Emirates Stadium in the competition this term.

Long shot – Arsenal to fail to score: Only Southampton have kept fewer home clean sheets than Arsenal (three) in the Premier League this season. However, the Gunners have only failed to score in one of their 16 at the Emirates so far this term (0-0 vs Newcastle United in January).

Opta prediction: Arsenal have had a wobble that might prove costly in the title race but will be determined to bounce back. Opta makes them the favourites (43.5 per cent), with Chelsea at 28.2 per cent. The draw is rated at 28.3 per cent.

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    Ryan Sessegnon has resigned for Fulham on a free transfer, five years after leaving the club.

    The 24-year-old signed a two-year contract with the Cottagers with the option to extend for a further year following his departure from Tottenham last month.

    In his first spell at the club, Sessegnon worked his way through the academy over 11 years, scoring 25 goals in 120 first-team appearances.

    He then moved to Spurs in a £25million deal in 2019, though struggled to nail down a place in North London, making just 57 appearances in all competitions, and scoring three goals.

    "It's amazing to be back. Emotional, as well," he told FFCtv. "It's where it started for me, where everything began, and it's amazing to be back.

    "It will always be home for me. I think it had the feeling that it was meant to be, coming back here, so I'm delighted to get it done."

    Sessegnon is Fulham's first signing of the transfer window, though they have seen plenty of first-team departures already, with Joao Palhinha, Tosin Adarabioyo and Bobby De Cordova-Reid all leaving the club.

  • Dewsbury-Hall: Maresca will surprise people at Chelsea Dewsbury-Hall: Maresca will surprise people at Chelsea

    Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall believes new Chelsea manager Enzo Maresca will "surprise a lot of people" when they watch the Blues this season.

    The Italian led Leicester City straight back to the Premier League as Championship winners in his only season in charge and succeeds Mauricio Pochettino at Stamford Bridge.

    The Foxes topped the second division table with 98 points, with Dewsbury-Hall a key figure in his squad as he netted 12 goals and provided 14 assists last season – his best tally in a single campaign.

    Dewsbury-Hall was also named Leicester's Player and Players' Player of the Year.

    The midfielder made the switch to West London earlier this month for £30million and is confident that Maresca will have Chelsea challenging for trophies in no time.

    "The manager was a big catalyst in wanting me to come," Dewsbury-Hall told BBC Sport.

    "I knew from Leicester, a club that went down and had a lot of problems, how he managed to galvanise that if everyone manages to buy into the system.

    "I genuinely think in a short space of time we can be pushing for minimum top four - but more than that.

    "He may be unknown for a lot of people, but he is top, top level. He will surprise a lot of people."

    Chelsea's pre-season got off to a frustrating start as they were held to a 2-2 draw by League One side Wrexham in Maresca's first game in charge on Wednesday.

    Dewsbury-Hall did not play in that match but is training with the squad in the United States and could feature in their next outing against Celtic on Saturday.

    The 25-year-old is confident the manager's tactics will come across soon, with the players buying into his style.

    "We've only been doing it for two or three weeks, but the combination plays are really quick and tidy," he added.

    "That's after two weeks. I remember he said to us at Leicester after six months or a year, there might be teething problems at the start, but it will improve.

    "Within the first week at Leicester, I was convinced this was top, top level. I felt a bit stupid; I thought I knew a lot about football, but he was teaching me things on a daily basis that I didn't really know before. He has an aura, he can be strict, or gentle and soft - he has both sides.

    "I am getting the same feedback here with the lads. They've bought into it here from minute one which is exciting. With a system and philosophy, you need everyone to buy in because, if they do, you can really achieve something."

  • Ederson slams reports of rift with Man City backup Ortega Ederson slams reports of rift with Man City backup Ortega

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    The Brazilian was substituted after suffering a fractured eye socket in City's penultimate game of the Premier League season, a vital 1-0 win over Tottenham. 

    Ortega replaced him and made a brilliant save to deny Son Heung-min as City maintained their slender lead over Arsenal at the top of the table, sealing an unprecedented fourth straight title by beating West Ham five days later. 

    Ortega was widely lauded for his role in that triumph, and an article published by The Athletic this week suggested Ederson took issue with that praise.

    However, the goalkeeper – who missed the Copa America as a result of his injury – has now moved to shut down those suggestions with a post to his Instagram story.

    "I would like to clarify that the note published by The Athletic yesterday, referring to my alleged dissatisfaction with a co-worker, is completely false," he wrote. 

    "The alleged day reported was, without a doubt, one of the most difficult days of my career, when I suffered a fracture that prevented me from playing in the final stretch of the season and, consequently, from representing my country in the Copa America.

    "At the time of the injury, my only thought was to continue in the match, defending City in the fight for the title. 

    "But the emotion of the match would be greater than the reality and, inevitably, I would not be able to continue as I would have liked due to the damage it caused, completely blocking my field of vision. I remain focused on preparing for the season."

    Ederson has been linked with a transfer in recent days, reportedly attracting interest from Saudi Pro League clubs.

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