EPL

Leeds United v Leicester City: Preview and prediction

By Sports Desk April 24, 2023

Leeds United are not putting all their eggs in one basket ahead of facing Leicester City on Tuesday, even if this is "a crucial game".

The two teams directly above the Premier League relegation zone meet at Elland Road following contrasting weekend results.

As Leicester came from behind to beat Wolves, Leeds lost again against Fulham, leaving them only a point outside the bottom three.

Leicester are still below Javi Gracia's side, though, meaning their next match presents a rare opportunity to get three points – even if Gracia is not prioritising one game over another.

"It's a very important game, a crucial game," Gracia said. "We give the value of the game, and we are really focused on it.

"There are six games left and all the remaining games are important. You never know where you can get points.

"Playing at home is the next game, and we have to be focused. Leicester come from a win, and it will be demanding for us."

Although Leicester are 17th, ahead of the drop zone only on goal difference, they have a little momentum while remaining wary of a Leeds response.

"They've had a bit of a struggle," Dean Smith said of Leeds.

"They've been on the back of heavy defeats at home, but they will see this one as a big one to try to pull away from where they are, just like us.

"We can't give them any reason to get lifted. We can't give cheap free-kicks away and cheap goals. We have to keep them quiet for as long as we can."

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Leeds United – Brenden Aaronson

Aaronson finding some form would go a long way to helping Leeds' cause. He has endured a miserable barren run, going 35 shots without scoring since his first and only Premier League goal to date. Thirteen Leeds players have scored in the competition since then.

Leicester City – Harvey Barnes

Leicester are set to welcome Barnes back from injury, and that spells bad news for Leeds. The winger has scored in all five of his Premier League appearances against Leeds, with only two players in the competition's history ever netting in their first six matches against a side – Raheem Sterling and Mohamed Salah, both against Bournemouth.

MATCH PREDICTION – LEICESTER WIN

Leeds have won just one of their past eight league games against Leicester, and even that was away from home in January 2021.

Leicester have won four of those matches, although this presents a big opportunity to do a league double over Leeds for the first time since 1997-98.

There should be goals regardless, with Leeds conceding 2.6 goals per game under Gracia in the Premier League – a club high – while Leicester are the only side in Europe's top five leagues without a clean sheet since the World Cup.

OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

Leeds United – 29.1 per cent

Leicester City – 43.9 per cent

Draw – 27.0 per cent

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    Though the Netherlands pair did not become teammates at Liverpool until late summer of 2023, Gakpo knew well Gravenberch’s talents from their respective Eredivisie spells with PSV Eindhoven and Ajax.

    Now in his second season at Anfield, Gravenberch has drawn widespread plaudits for his form in a new deeper-lying midfield role under new head coach Arne Slot, having largely been used as a substitute under Jurgen Klopp.

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    Southampton, meanwhile, welcome the Reds to St. Mary’s on the back of a 2-0 defeat to Wolves ahead of the international break, leaving them bottom of the table after 11 games of the season.

    The Saints are the lowest scorers in the Premier League this season (seven), while only Crystal Palace (5.1%) have a lower shot conversion rate than Russell Martin’s side (6.2%). Just 30.1% of Southampton’s shots have been on target this term (34/113), a league-low ratio.

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    "I'm really excited about Sunday. We're playing the best team in the country at the moment, on their current form and what they have been doing with their manager, built on an incredible foundation from the previous manager, so I'm really looking forward to it,” Martin said.

    "I think we showed the guys the Premier League table last season and how much it changed by the end and by the end of December. But it's honestly such an exciting month.

    "People talk about the difficulty of the game and every competition we face in the next four or five games, but it's what we all worked so hard for. We should be excited about the challenge.  

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    PLAYERS TO WATCH

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    Liverpool – Mohamed Salah

    Salah has both scored and assisted in the same match 35 times in the Premier League (including four already this term), just one shy of Wayne Rooney’s record of 36 games with both a goal and an assist in the competition. The Egyptian has been directly involved in 11 goals (seven goals, four assists) in 11 Premier League appearances against Southampton.

    He has also been directly involved in 67% of Liverpool’s Premier League goals this season (14/21 – eight goals, six assists), the highest ratio by a player for any side in the division in 2024-25. Indeed, only Matt Le Tissier for Southampton in 1993-94 (69% - 34/49) has scored or assisted a higher proportion of a side’s goals in a single season in the competition.

    MATCH PREDICTION: LIVERPOOL WIN

    Liverpool have won nine of their 11 Premier League games under new head coach Slot (D1 L1). A win over Southampton will see the Dutchman become the joint-fastest manager to reach 10 wins from the start of a Premier League career (12 games), alongside Guus Hiddink in May 2009 and Carlo Ancelotti in November 2009 (both with Chelsea).

    The Reds’ last Premier League game against the Saints was a 4-4 away draw in May 2023 – they conceded as many goals in that game as they had in their previous six visits to St Mary’s combined.

    Southampton have won just one of their last 14 Premier League games against Liverpool (D3 L10), a 1-0 home victory in January 2021.

    This will also be the first Premier League match between the side starting the day bottom of the table and the side starting the day top since April 2023, and Southampton’s 3-3 draw away to Arsenal. The league leaders are unbeaten in 14 such matches (W12 D2) since Wolves won 2-1 against Manchester United in February 2011.

    However, Southampton have only lost one of their last eight Premier League home games against sides starting the day at the summit (W2 D5) and are unbeaten in their last four (W2 D2 – including a 1-0 win over Liverpool in January 2021) since a 0-1 defeat to Man City in May 2018.

    But Martin’s side have lost nine of their 11 Premier League games this season (W1 D1). Only seven sides in English top-flight history have reached 10 defeats in 12 or fewer matches from the start of a campaign, with all seven going on to be relegated.

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Southampton – 9.7%

    Draw – 12.6%

    Liverpool – 77.7%

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