EPL

Premier League predictions: Arsenal to get back on track as strugglers aim to scrape wins

By Sports Desk April 21, 2023

Premier League leaders Arsenal will aim to get back on track when they host lowly Southampton on Friday.

The Gunners' lead at the top has been cut to just four points after successive 2-2 draws against Liverpool and West Ham, throwing away two-goal leads in each of those matches.

But with Manchester City in FA Cup action, Arsenal have a great chance to move seven points clear of Pep Guardiola's side ahead of next week's huge clash between the title rivals at the Etihad Stadium.

Leicester City, Everton and Leeds United will all be hoping Arsenal do the business, with Southampton's relegation rivals all in action on Saturday.

 

Arsenal v Southampton

Southampton are one of three sides Arsenal have failed to beat in the Premier League this season, along with Newcastle United and City, following their 1-1 draw at St Mary's Stadium in October. The last time Saints avoided defeat in both Premier League meetings with the Gunners was in the 2015-16 season.

This is the first Premier League meeting between Arsenal and Southampton on a Friday, with the Gunners defeating Southampton on each of the other six days of the week in the competition. They have never won a Premier League match against an opponent on all seven days of the week.

James Ward-Prowse has scored nine goals in all competitions for Southampton this season and could reach double figures for the second time in his career following his 11 last term. Six of his nine goals this season have come away from home, with four of those strikes coming in London.

Best bet – Arsenal to win: Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 27 home league games against Southampton (W19 D8) – in their league history, only against Fulham (current run of 30) have they had a longer unbeaten home run. They have never lost in 23 Premier League home games against Southampton (W16 D7), the most one side has hosted another without ever losing in the competition.

Long shot – Southampton to keep a clean sheet: The side bottom of the table has won just four of their 38 Premier League meetings with the league leaders (D6 L28), losing 14 of their 15 such games away from home (D1). Southampton kept a clean sheet in three of their first four under Ruben Selles but have kept none in their last five, while conceding 12 goals.

Opta prediction: The supercomputer has Arsenal winning this one, with their chances of victory rated at 67.3 per cent. The draw is at 20.7 per cent, while Southampton's hopes of a win are slim at 12 per cent.

Fulham v Leeds United

Given they have conceded 11 goals across their last two home games, Leeds will surely be thrilled to be back on the road. That being said, they have lost all five of their Premier League games in London this season, conceding 16 goals in the process. 

Fulham have already beaten Leeds twice this season, winning 3-2 in the league and 2-0 in the FA Cup. As a top-flight side, the Cottagers have beaten a team three times in one season on three previous occasions.

Leeds striker Patrick Bamford has been directly involved in six goals in his past four league starts against Fulham, scoring four and assisting two. He has both scored and assisted a goal in both of his Premier League starts against the Cottagers.

Best bet – Both teams to score: Leeds have conceded 16 goals in four Premier League games this month, letting in at least four goals in three of those matches. Fulham, meanwhile, have not kept a clean sheet since beating Leeds 2-0 in the FA Cup on February 28.

Long shot – Harry Wilson to score: In Fulham's 3-1 win against Everton last time out, Wilson scored his first league goal since March 2022, and first Premier League goal since January 2020 while at Bournemouth. He last scored in consecutive league games in September 2021, and last did so in the Premier League in August 2019.

Opta prediction: Only three teams have conceded more away goals than Leeds (30) in the Premier League this season, with no side keeping fewer clean sheets on the road than the Whites (one). Combined with their dismal record in London, it is no surprise to see Leeds have just a 28.5 per cent chance of success. Fulham are the favourites (42.8 per cent).

 

Crystal Palace v Everton

Palace have won just one of their past 16 Premier League games against Everton (D7 L8), though it did come in this fixture last season (3-1). The Toffees, though, won the reverse match 3-0 in October.

Dwight McNeil has scored two goals in his past five Premier League games, as many as he had in his previous 71 appearances. He is one of just two players to score more than once for Everton under Sean Dyche, along with Abdoulaye Doucoure.

Palace have won all three of their Premier League games since Roy Hodgson's return to the club, as many as they had in their previous 18 (D5 L10). They last won four in a row in June 2020, in Hodgson's previous stint at the club.

Best bet – Palace to have 10+ shots: Everton have allowed 50 shots across their last two matches, while Palace are averaging 19 shots, 2.2 xG and 6.3 shots on target per game under Hodgson, compared to 9.9 shots, 0.9 xG and 3.2 shots on target per game before his return.

Long shot – Everton to win and score over one goal: Having won two of their first three Premier League games under Dyche (L1), Everton have won just one of their subsequent eight (D3 L4). All three of their league wins under Dyche have been at home, by a 1-0 scoreline, with the Toffees currently winless in 11 Premier League away games (D4 L7).

Opta prediction: Everton are looking to complete their first league double over Palace since 2004-05, though the Eagles have won their last two home games against Everton in all competitions, as many as they had in their previous 15 (D6 L7). Hodgson's team are ranked as 40.6 per cent favourites, with the draw at 29.9 per cent, while the Toffees' likelihood of a win is 29.5 per cent.

 

Leicester City v Wolves

Dean Smith could hardly have had a tougher game to start his interim spell in charge of Leicester, who are 19th after losing 3-1 to Manchester City last week. The new Foxes boss will be hoping to rekindle the magic Brendan Rodgers managed at Molineux in October, when Leicester beat Wolves 4-0.

Wolves have never scored in five Premier League away games against Leicester – only Birmingham City have visited a side more without ever finding the net in the competition.

Leicester are the only side without a clean sheet since the resumption of the Premier League following the World Cup, having kept a shutout in five of their six matches before the break. It is their longest run of conceding a goal in consecutive league games since a run of 21 between April and December 1994, which included their first 18 Premier League matches.

Best bet – Leicester to avoid defeat: Wolves have won just one of their past 25 away league games against Leicester (D9 L15), failing to score in five of their past six visits (including the last four) since a 4-1 Championship win in May 2007.

Long shot – Jamie Vardy to score and Leicester to win: Vardy has scored three goals in his last four Premier League games against Wolves, with Leicester winning all three matches. His only league goal so far this season was in the Foxes' 4-0 win in the reverse fixture.

Opta prediction: Despite their place in the bottom three, Leicester are the favourites, at 47.3 per cent. Wolves have won their last two games to drag themselves out of trouble, but Opta give them just a 24.3 per cent chance of victory. The draw is rated at 28.4 per cent.

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    Bournemouth – 41.2%

    Draw – 25.1%

    Brighton – 33.7%

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