EPL

Premier League predictions: Arsenal to get back on track as strugglers aim to scrape wins

By Sports Desk April 21, 2023

Premier League leaders Arsenal will aim to get back on track when they host lowly Southampton on Friday.

The Gunners' lead at the top has been cut to just four points after successive 2-2 draws against Liverpool and West Ham, throwing away two-goal leads in each of those matches.

But with Manchester City in FA Cup action, Arsenal have a great chance to move seven points clear of Pep Guardiola's side ahead of next week's huge clash between the title rivals at the Etihad Stadium.

Leicester City, Everton and Leeds United will all be hoping Arsenal do the business, with Southampton's relegation rivals all in action on Saturday.

 

Arsenal v Southampton

Southampton are one of three sides Arsenal have failed to beat in the Premier League this season, along with Newcastle United and City, following their 1-1 draw at St Mary's Stadium in October. The last time Saints avoided defeat in both Premier League meetings with the Gunners was in the 2015-16 season.

This is the first Premier League meeting between Arsenal and Southampton on a Friday, with the Gunners defeating Southampton on each of the other six days of the week in the competition. They have never won a Premier League match against an opponent on all seven days of the week.

James Ward-Prowse has scored nine goals in all competitions for Southampton this season and could reach double figures for the second time in his career following his 11 last term. Six of his nine goals this season have come away from home, with four of those strikes coming in London.

Best bet – Arsenal to win: Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 27 home league games against Southampton (W19 D8) – in their league history, only against Fulham (current run of 30) have they had a longer unbeaten home run. They have never lost in 23 Premier League home games against Southampton (W16 D7), the most one side has hosted another without ever losing in the competition.

Long shot – Southampton to keep a clean sheet: The side bottom of the table has won just four of their 38 Premier League meetings with the league leaders (D6 L28), losing 14 of their 15 such games away from home (D1). Southampton kept a clean sheet in three of their first four under Ruben Selles but have kept none in their last five, while conceding 12 goals.

Opta prediction: The supercomputer has Arsenal winning this one, with their chances of victory rated at 67.3 per cent. The draw is at 20.7 per cent, while Southampton's hopes of a win are slim at 12 per cent.

Fulham v Leeds United

Given they have conceded 11 goals across their last two home games, Leeds will surely be thrilled to be back on the road. That being said, they have lost all five of their Premier League games in London this season, conceding 16 goals in the process. 

Fulham have already beaten Leeds twice this season, winning 3-2 in the league and 2-0 in the FA Cup. As a top-flight side, the Cottagers have beaten a team three times in one season on three previous occasions.

Leeds striker Patrick Bamford has been directly involved in six goals in his past four league starts against Fulham, scoring four and assisting two. He has both scored and assisted a goal in both of his Premier League starts against the Cottagers.

Best bet – Both teams to score: Leeds have conceded 16 goals in four Premier League games this month, letting in at least four goals in three of those matches. Fulham, meanwhile, have not kept a clean sheet since beating Leeds 2-0 in the FA Cup on February 28.

Long shot – Harry Wilson to score: In Fulham's 3-1 win against Everton last time out, Wilson scored his first league goal since March 2022, and first Premier League goal since January 2020 while at Bournemouth. He last scored in consecutive league games in September 2021, and last did so in the Premier League in August 2019.

Opta prediction: Only three teams have conceded more away goals than Leeds (30) in the Premier League this season, with no side keeping fewer clean sheets on the road than the Whites (one). Combined with their dismal record in London, it is no surprise to see Leeds have just a 28.5 per cent chance of success. Fulham are the favourites (42.8 per cent).

 

Crystal Palace v Everton

Palace have won just one of their past 16 Premier League games against Everton (D7 L8), though it did come in this fixture last season (3-1). The Toffees, though, won the reverse match 3-0 in October.

Dwight McNeil has scored two goals in his past five Premier League games, as many as he had in his previous 71 appearances. He is one of just two players to score more than once for Everton under Sean Dyche, along with Abdoulaye Doucoure.

Palace have won all three of their Premier League games since Roy Hodgson's return to the club, as many as they had in their previous 18 (D5 L10). They last won four in a row in June 2020, in Hodgson's previous stint at the club.

Best bet – Palace to have 10+ shots: Everton have allowed 50 shots across their last two matches, while Palace are averaging 19 shots, 2.2 xG and 6.3 shots on target per game under Hodgson, compared to 9.9 shots, 0.9 xG and 3.2 shots on target per game before his return.

Long shot – Everton to win and score over one goal: Having won two of their first three Premier League games under Dyche (L1), Everton have won just one of their subsequent eight (D3 L4). All three of their league wins under Dyche have been at home, by a 1-0 scoreline, with the Toffees currently winless in 11 Premier League away games (D4 L7).

Opta prediction: Everton are looking to complete their first league double over Palace since 2004-05, though the Eagles have won their last two home games against Everton in all competitions, as many as they had in their previous 15 (D6 L7). Hodgson's team are ranked as 40.6 per cent favourites, with the draw at 29.9 per cent, while the Toffees' likelihood of a win is 29.5 per cent.

 

Leicester City v Wolves

Dean Smith could hardly have had a tougher game to start his interim spell in charge of Leicester, who are 19th after losing 3-1 to Manchester City last week. The new Foxes boss will be hoping to rekindle the magic Brendan Rodgers managed at Molineux in October, when Leicester beat Wolves 4-0.

Wolves have never scored in five Premier League away games against Leicester – only Birmingham City have visited a side more without ever finding the net in the competition.

Leicester are the only side without a clean sheet since the resumption of the Premier League following the World Cup, having kept a shutout in five of their six matches before the break. It is their longest run of conceding a goal in consecutive league games since a run of 21 between April and December 1994, which included their first 18 Premier League matches.

Best bet – Leicester to avoid defeat: Wolves have won just one of their past 25 away league games against Leicester (D9 L15), failing to score in five of their past six visits (including the last four) since a 4-1 Championship win in May 2007.

Long shot – Jamie Vardy to score and Leicester to win: Vardy has scored three goals in his last four Premier League games against Wolves, with Leicester winning all three matches. His only league goal so far this season was in the Foxes' 4-0 win in the reverse fixture.

Opta prediction: Despite their place in the bottom three, Leicester are the favourites, at 47.3 per cent. Wolves have won their last two games to drag themselves out of trouble, but Opta give them just a 24.3 per cent chance of victory. The draw is rated at 28.4 per cent.

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    Enzo Maresca’s side could go up on Tuesday if they beat Southampton at the King Power Stadium.

    Jamie Vardy’s 15th league goal of the season effectively sealed the victory and made up for him missing a penalty in the first half.

    Leicester took the lead through Wilfred Ndidi in the 22nd minute after Albion had dominated the early stages and missed a string of chances to take the lead.

    West Brom manager Carlos Corberan will wonder how his side managed to squander so many oppportunities to score, and their second successive defeat means their play-off place is by no means certain.

    They did eventually find the net through their captain, Jed Wallace, with 14 minutes left, but could not force an equaliser.

    Leicester’s win owes much to central midfielder Hamza Choudhury who made three goal-line clearances – two of them coming within seconds of one another.

    But with both teams recording a combined total of almost 30 shots, the game was partly a tale of the opportunities that were squandered.

    West Brom could have had the match won inside the first 20 minutes. With Maresca’s team playing out from the back, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall passed the ball straight to Okay Yukuslu, but he put his hurried shot over the bar.

    Mikey Johnston was then involved on three occasions, seeing an effort cleared off the line after 14 minutes. He then had a shot saved by Leicester keeper Mads Hermansen before putting another chance over the bar.

    Leicester made Albion pay for their wastefulness in front of goal by taking the lead. Stephy Mavididi pulled the ball back for defender Wout Faes who crossed for Vardy. His header was kept out by Albion goalkeeper Alex Palmer but Ndidi converted the rebound from close range.

    Maresca’s side looked set to take a two-goal advantage into the break. Vardy ran on to a long ball from Hermansen a minute before half-time and was pushed over by West Brom defender Conor Townsend in the 18 yard box. Vardy had scored four penalties from four this season, but he hit the post from his fifth spot kick of the campaign.

    Choudhury then cleared off the line twice in the space of a few seconds after 51 minutes. First, he blocked a shot from Yann M’Vila and then denied Grady Diangana. The drama continued as, from the resulting corner, Kyle Bartley headed against the bar with Diangana unable to get the vital touch from close range.

    Again, Albion were punished for missing their chances as Vardy increased Leicester’s lead after 65 minutes. Choudhury found Abdul Fatawu on the right and his cross was met by Vardy who headed in from close range.

    West Brom finally found the net when defender Cedric Kipre’s inch-perfect pass found Wallace who slid the ball past Hermansen.

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    The Ibrox side head into the Hampden showdown on the back of a damaging run of two wins from their last eight games in all competitions, with their cinch Premiership title bid having been dented significantly by a return of just two points from their last three matches.

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    Clement dismissed any notion that his side must adapt their game-plan in any way to deal with Steven Naismith’s on-form team and instead must simply attempt to play their own game to a higher standard than they have been recently.

    “I don’t counter anything,” he said. “We will play our own game, we don’t need to counter another team.

    “We are going to play our own game and believe in ourselves and show our qualities.

    “To win we need a better performance than we had on Wednesday (in the 0-0 draw at Dundee), for sure. We need to do the right things against Hearts who have played a very good season.

    “It’s a very interesting test for the players and I know they are all hungry to go to the final. They’ve had the experience of going to a final and winning it (the Viaplay Cup) and some of them have won several already so the mood is big.”

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    “Against Dundee we were too direct so we lost the balance in that way,” he said. “Sometimes we wanted to play too fast and it’s finding that good balance by showing it with images and what we need to do and take lessons out of that.

    “Maybe the hunger was too big to go too fast forward. We need to find a good balance and do that in a better way against Hearts.”

    Rangers have been subjected to ferocious criticism recently and Clement admits he will find out a lot about his players in terms of how they respond under pressure in the coming weeks.

    “It is easy to be good and be happy when it goes easy,” he said. “It is when the going gets tough you see the personality and the character.

    “Players can grow in this. It is a growing experience. It is not only from nature that you have this, you can grow in that.

    “That is an important part of being part of this club. It is also something that Nils (Koppen, director of football recruitment) knows really well, it is something to look at in recruitment also.”

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