EPL

Premier League predictions: Arsenal, Man City to continue title charge, can Forest and Leeds pull off shocks?

By Sports Desk April 14, 2023

Manchester City gained ground on Arsenal last week, cutting the Gunners' lead at the top of the Premier League to six points.

City, who have a game in hand, beat lowly Southampton last time out and on Saturday face another relegation battler in the form of Leicester City, who will be under the stewardship of Dean Smith for the first time.

Arsenal, meanwhile, take on West Ham in a London Derby. The Hammers are also fighting at the wrong end of the table, though two wins from their last three league matches has given David Moyes' team some confidence.

Nottingham Forest are another team scrapping for survival, and Steve Cooper will be looking to make home advantage count against Manchester United.

Likewise, Leeds United will hope the Elland Road faithful help propel them to victory against Liverpool, who they beat at Anfield earlier in the campaign.

With the help of Opta data, here are some key predictions ahead of another fascinating weekend of Premier League action.

 

Manchester City v Leicester City

City have won 10 of their last 12 Premier League games against Leicester City (L2), winning the last four in a row since a 5-2 home defeat in September 2020.

Having been beaten in seven of their last eight Premier League games (D1), Leicester have now lost 19 league matches overall this term. Not since 2001-02 (20) have the Foxes lost 20+ league matches in one season, and should they lose against City, it will be the joint-second earliest they have ever hit 20 defeats in a Football League campaign.

Leicester midfielder James Maddison has scored in this exact fixture in each of the last two campaigns; only two visiting players have scored a Premier League goal at Etihad Stadium in three consecutive seasons – Collins John (2004-05 to 2006-07) and Tim Cahill (2008-09 to 2010-11).

Best bet – Erling Haaland to score: Is there any way to stop Haaland? Many teams have tried, and nearly all have failed. The Norway international is already on 30 league goals this season, averaging a strike every 73 minutes with a shot conversion rate of 33.3 per cent. Given Leicester's defensive frailties, the 22-year-old will be licking his lips.

Long shot – Leicester to keep a clean sheet: The Foxes have not prevented the opposition from scoring in a league match since November, when they beat West Ham 2-0. If they are to get out of trouble, then interim boss Smith has to find a way to tighten things up at the back.

Opta prediction: Leicester won four of their first five Premier League visits to Man City (L1) but have since lost five of their last six games at the Etihad Stadium (W1). It is no surprise, then, that Opta's supercomputer has City as huge favourites (75.1 per cent), while Leicester are given only an 8.5 per cent chance of pulling off a win. 

 

West Ham v Arsenal

Arsenal have won 11 Premier League away games this season, only winning more on the road in 2001-02 (14) and 2004-05 (12). The Gunners have the most wins (11), most points (35), most goals scored (30) and fewest goals conceded (11) of any team away from home in the Premier League this term.

They have also won eight Premier League games against West Ham after conceding the first goal, including a 3-1 victory in the reverse fixture in December. It is both the most wins Arsenal have against an opponent when conceding first, and the most defeats West Ham have against a side when opening the scoring in the competition.

Arsenal have scored 72 goals from an xG of 60.1 in the Premier League this season, with their difference of +11.9 bettered only by Manchester City (12.2). Meanwhile, West Ham have scored 27 goals from an xG of 38.4, with their difference of -11.4 the biggest negative difference this term.

Best bet – Arsenal to score first and avoid defeat: The Gunners are the only team yet to lose a Premier League game when scoring the first goal this season, winning 18 and drawing three. However, they did let a two-goal lead slip in their 2-2 draw at Liverpool last time out.

Long shot – West Ham to win: West Ham have won just two of their last 29 Premier League games against Arsenal (D5 L22), who have only lost three of their 26 Premier League visits to West Ham (W14 D9) and have won nine of their last 14 away games against the Hammers (D4 L1).

Opta prediction: Given West Ham's woeful record against the Gunners, their chances of success are ranked at only 28.8 per cent by Opta, with the draw at 28.4 per cent. The likelihood of Arsenal winning is 42.8 per cent.

 

Nottingham Forest v Manchester United

This is Forest's first home league game against United since February 1999, when they lost 8-1 with Ole Gunnar Solskjaer scoring four times as a substitute.

Forest are winless (D3 L6) and without a clean sheet in their last nine Premier League games. In fact, Forest are winless in all 23 league games in which they have conceded this season (D8 L15), with all six of their victories being to nil.

United have lost three of their last four away games in the Premier League (W1), having only lost three of their first 10 on the road this season (W5 D2). The Red Devils have conceded 29 away goals in 14 away league games this term; not since 1978-79 have they hit 30 goals conceded within their first 15 away matches of a league campaign.

Best bet – United to avoid defeat: United have won their last nine games against Forest in all competitions, beating them three times this season alone (once in the league, twice in the EFL Cup). The Red Devils have beaten a side four times in a season twice before, doing so against Sheffield Wednesday in 1993-94 and Chelsea in 2010-11.

Long shot – Jesse Lingard to score: Lingard has yet to score for Forest in the league. He could become the third former United player to score his first Premier League goal for a side against the Red Devils, after Keith Gillespie at Sheffield United in 2006-07, and Dan James for Fulham this season.

Opta prediction: United have won their last six Premier League games against Nottingham Forest, scoring at least three goals on each occasion, and they are the favourites for Sunday's game, with Opta suggesting they have a 52.6 per cent likelihood of taking three points. Forest are given a 20.6 per cent chance. The draw is ranked at 26.8 per cent.

 

Leeds United v Liverpool

Leeds slumped to a 5-1 defeat to Crystal Palace in their last home game, and sit just two points above the bottom three. Depending on results elsewhere, the Whites could be in the relegation zone by the time Monday's game comes around. They are looking for only their second Premier League double over Liverpool, previously achieving that feat in the 2000-01 campaign.

Liverpool have not lost any of their last five league visits to Elland Road against Leeds (W3 D2) since losing 4-3 in November 2000, with Mark Viduka scoring all four for the hosts that day.

The Reds are averaging 0.87 points per game away from home in the Premier League this season (13 points in 15 away games), their lowest in a campaign since 1992-93 (0.76 – 16 points in 21 games). 

Best bet – Mohamed Salah to be involved in a goal: Salah has seven goals in five Premier League appearances against Leeds for Liverpool, scoring in their 3-0 win at Elland Road last season. No Reds player has more Premier League goals against Leeds than Salah (Robbie Fowler also seven), while only Gordon Hodgson has more in their league history (nine).

Long shot – Under 1.5 goals: Leeds have shipped 10 goals in their three Premier League games in April (W1 L2), more than any other team so far this month. Liverpool, who are winless in their last five games in all competitions (D2 L3), have netted 15 times in their last five top-flight meetings with the Whites.

Opta prediction: Despite their dismal form on the road, Liverpool are made big favourites by Opta (61.4 per cent). A Leeds win is ranked at 15.8 per cent, with a draw forecast at 22.8 per cent.

Related items

  • Marco Silva wants Andreas Pereira to continue to make the right impression Marco Silva wants Andreas Pereira to continue to make the right impression

    Fulham boss Marco Silva will continue to demand more from Andreas Pereira as the Brazilian looks to maintain his form heading into the closing weeks of the Premier League season.

    Pereira scored both goals in Fulham’s 2-0 victory at West Ham last weekend, which was a first win in four matches.

    The former Manchester United attacking midfielder had not found the net since August, but is top of Fulham’s assists with eight so far.

    The consistency of Pereira, who was born in Belgium, has seen him recalled into the Brazil national team, featuring in both March friendlies against England at Wembley and then Spain.

    Silva feels the 28-year-old, who had a successful loan spell at Flamengo before signing for Fulham in the summer of 2022, still has plenty more to offer.

    “Andreas, last season made a huge impact. Before he joined us, he played more as a second midfielder and not so offensive,” the Fulham boss said.

    “This season, he is going to have one of the best assist records for us – and we will demand more.

    “Last week, he showed the desire to arrive in the right areas.”

    Fulham host Liverpool on Sunday looking to further dent the Reds’ ambitions.

    Jurgen Klopp’s side were knocked out of the Europa League by Atalanta and also slumped to what could prove a costly home defeat against Crystal Palace to lose ground in the Premier League title race.

    Fulham have pushed Liverpool in each of their three meetings this season, being narrowly edged out 4-3 after a dramatic finish at Anfield in their league match at the start of December followed by what was a tight Carabao Cup semi-final over two legs.

    “Probably some of them (have been) too open for a manager to enjoy, but yes, at Anfield and at the Cottage as well, they have been really – in some moments – emotional games, in other moments entertaining,” Silva said at a press conference.

    “Tight games always, in some of them dramatic ends of the match. But even last season, it was really tough for them to come to play at Craven Cottage (in the) Carabao Cup this season, too.”

    Silva added: “We want to make life really difficult for Liverpool, to give them a match.

    “Let’s hope we can get a different result than the last games that we played against them.

    Fulham could yet challenge for a top-10 finish.

    “I think we are in the best moment of the season,” Silva said. “We haven’t had big injuries in the last month and a half, or two months.

    “It, of course, creates a competition inside our squad that helps myself and the players to reach a different level and good headaches for me to decide, which is always the better situation to plan a game and prepare for the next game.”

  • Jurgen Klopp: Trent Alexander-Arnold and Diogo Jota give Liverpool ‘a chance’ Jurgen Klopp: Trent Alexander-Arnold and Diogo Jota give Liverpool ‘a chance’

    Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp believes the return of Trent Alexander-Arnold and Diogo Jota gives their title hopes a much-needed boost.

    Defeat to Crystal Palace last weekend saw Klopp’s side drop to third as Manchester City moved into a two-point lead at the top of the table.

    But with results faltering, the performance by Alexander-Arnold in the Europa League win over Atalanta, particularly in the first half, has offered renewed hope.

    The defender was making his first start since mid-February after a knee injury and, while Jota has yet to have the same impact in three relatively short substitute appearances after a similar two-month lay-off, the clinical nature of his game could offset some of the deficiencies currently being experienced by his fellow forwards.

    “We need Trent Alexander-Arnold, of course, but we need him in a really good shape and form and that’s what he has to get up to,” said Klopp ahead of the trip to Fulham.

    “It’s not about him and it’s not his fault if he wouldn’t be, it’s just the situation. So how quick can we get him rolling if you want – the same for Diogo.

    “We have to find a way to help the boys in the best way, to bring them as quick as possible into their best form or shape and from there we have to go.

    “Without them we wouldn’t have a chance. With them we have a chance, with them in a really good football moment the chance gets bigger and bigger.”

    Klopp remains positive about their chances despite recent failures and feels six wins could see them snatch the title from the grasp of their rivals.

    Although a Europa League exit on aggregate was disappointing there were positives to take from the game.

    Alexander-Arnold’s display, drifting infield to dictate play and even popping up in the centre-forward’s position on occasions in Bergamo, was one and a first clean sheet in 10 matches was another.

    With struggles up front continuing – Liverpool have scored only two goals in the opening 15 minutes in a league game this season – a more solid backline offers a better platform and that is why Klopp is optimistic.

    “I don’t have a lot of qualities but I am always completely honest. If I don’t feel great the players feel it pretty quickly,” he said.

    “I cannot really deny or just keep it under the carpet so that means after the game against Palace people ask ‘What do you tell the team now?’.

    “But here we are a few days later and I feel absolutely great, I see the good in the situation where we are. It is fantastic.

    “The boys know that I don’t tell them things which I don’t believe in and I am 100 percent sure we can really win all of the games we will have to from now on.

    “What should influence us more: the last game, the last week or is it the chance in front of us?

    “I am fully (of the opinion) that there is a next chance for us and we can turn things absolutely around in all departments. We can make it still an outstanding season.

    “It will be a good season but of course how you look at it is in the end is massively influenced by the last part of it.”

  • On this day in 2018: Arsene Wenger announces his Arsenal exit On this day in 2018: Arsene Wenger announces his Arsenal exit

    On this day in 2018, Arsene Wenger announced he would step down as Arsenal manager at the end of the season after almost 22 years in the role.

    Appointed in September 1996, the Frenchman had presided over a glittering period in the club’s history which yielded three Premier League titles, the last of them famously secured by his “Invincibles”, who went through the 2003-04 league campaign unbeaten.

    In addition, former Nancy, Monaco and Grampus Eight boss Wenger guided the club to FA Cup glory on seven occasions and secured 20 successive seasons of Champions League football during a reign spanning 1,235 matches, 828 of them in the top flight.

    However, his announcement came amid mounting disquiet over the club’s showing in both the Premier League and Europe, with three FA Cup successes in four years failing to placate his critics.

    Wenger said: “After careful consideration and following discussions with the club, I feel it is the right time for me to step down at the end of the season.

    “I am grateful for having had the privilege to serve the club for so many memorable years. I managed the club with full commitment and integrity.”

    Majority owner Stan Kroenke paid tribute to the man who had gone toe-to-toe with Manchester United counterpart Sir Alex Ferguson and Chelsea’s Jose Mourinho.

    Kroenke said: “This is one of the most difficult days we have ever had in all our years in sport.

    “One of the main reasons we got involved with Arsenal was because of what Arsene has brought to the club on and off the pitch.

    “His longevity and consistency over such a sustained period at the highest level of the game will never be matched. Arsene has unparalleled class and we will always be grateful to him.”

    Wenger, described by Ferguson as “without doubt one of the greatest Premier League managers” and by former Gunners skipper Tony Adams as “the greatest Arsenal manager”, bowed out after a 1-0 final-day victory at Huddersfield on May 13, 2018.

    The 68-year-old said afterwards: “I feel that I got a lot of respect not only from our fans, but from England. I would reiterate I loved English football, but I also learned to love England. You do not stay 22 years if you don’t like it.”

© 2023 SportsMaxTV All Rights Reserved.