EPL

Premier League predictions: Arsenal facing Salah threat, Lampard to get the better of Lopetegui?

By Sports Desk April 07, 2023

Arsenal face another major obstacle in their quest to land a first Premier League title in 19 years when they travel to Liverpool on Sunday.

The Gunners have historically struggled at Anfield, though Mikel Arteta's men have passed most tests this season en route to opening up a healthy lead over Manchester City.

While Arsenal will be looking to continue their good form, having won seven league games in a row, it is the start of another new chapter for Chelsea when they head to Wolves.

Frank Lampard was this week appointed as caretaker manager for the rest of the season following the sacking of Graham Potter, with Chelsea way down in 11th place.

There are plenty of other big games at the top and bottom of the division this weekend, not least at Old Trafford where Manchester United and Everton face off.

United got their top-four hopes back on track in midweek and will be seeking some momentum when they take on an Everton side sitting level on points with the bottom three.

Here, with the help of Opta data, Stats Perform has provided some key insights and predictions.


Manchester United v Everton

United have dominated this fixture down the years, with their 38 Premier League wins against Everton the second most one team has over another after the Red Devils themselves against Tottenham (39 wins).

Erik ten Hag's men have won both meetings with Everton in all competitions this term – 2-1 in the league at Goodison Park and 3-1 in the FA Cup on home soil – and could make it three wins in a single campaign against them for the third time (after 1993-94 and 2015-16 seasons).

Everton have improved since Sean Dyche took charge, picking up 12 points from their nine league games under him, with that seven more than they managed in their final 12 games under Lampard.

Best bet – Everton to score at Old Trafford: The Toffees' away form this season may be terrible, as is their overall record at United, but they have scored in each of their past nine Premier League games at Old Trafford, with that the Red Devils' longest run without a clean sheet against a single opponent in the competition.

Long shot – Everton to avoid defeat: Scoring away at United is one thing; holding on for a point or more is another. Everton have won just one of their past 29 away league meetings with United, but their past three visits to Old Trafford have finished all square.

Opta prediction: United failed to win any of their six matches in the early Saturday kick-off slot last season, but they have won all three such games this campaign, including a 2-1 win over Manchester City in January. Everton have won just two of their past 31 away league games, meanwhile, and Opta's model gives them only a 20.6 per cent chance of winning at Old Trafford. United are given a 52.7 per cent chance of success, meanwhile, and the draw is rated at 26.7 per cent.

 


Wolves v Chelsea

Chelsea have failed to win on their past two league visits to Molineux, but the good news is that their most recent victory there came in September 2019 under Lampard.

Wolves are unbeaten in their three Premier League games against opponents from London under the watch of Julen Lopetegui, having failed to win any of their previous 11 such matches prior to the Spaniard's arrival.

The Blues have picked up just 16 points from 14 away top-flight matches, which is their lowest return after 14 road games in a single campaign since 2000-01 (nine).

Best bet – Wolves to win without conceding: Given Chelsea's form, a Wolves win this weekend would hardly be the biggest of surprises – especially considering Lopetegui's men have won their past three league games against sides starting the day above them without letting in a goal (1-0 v West Ham, 3-0 v Liverpool and 1-0 v Tottenham).

Long shot – Raheem Sterling to score or assist: The Chelsea winger has been directly involved in just one goal in his past six matches, but since the start of the 2019-20 campaign, only Manchester City playmaker Kevin De Bruyne (nine) has been directly involved in more league goals at Molineux than Sterling among visiting players (three goals, two assists).

Opta prediction: Wolves are winless in their past four Premier League games against Chelsea since beating them 2-1 at Molineux in December 2020. The Blues will be hoping the new (well, returning) manager bounce pays off and the Opta model makes them favourites to win with a 42.3 per cent backing, compared to 27.9 per cent for Wolves and 29.8 per cent for the draw.

 


Liverpool v Arsenal

Arsenal are facing Liverpool as Premier League leaders for the ninth time, with the previous eight occasions producing a total of 33 goals at an average of over four per game.

Since briefly surrendering top spot to Man City following a 3-1 defeat in February, Arsenal have won their last seven Premier League games. They have scored at least three goals in six of these, including the last five in a row.

Liverpool have won five of their last six Premier League home games (D1), including each of the last three by an aggregate score 11-0. The Reds have not conceded in any of their past seven hours and 26 minutes of league football at Anfield, since Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall's strike for Leicester City in December.

Best bet – Mohamed Salah to score or assist: The Egypt international is expected to be recalled by Jurgen Klopp and that could spell bad news for Arsenal. Salah has been involved in 105 league goals in 105 games at Anfield for Liverpool (74 goals, 31 assists) and has scored in three successive home league appearances for the Reds.

Long shot – Arsenal to lose without scoring: The Gunners have lost on their last six league visits to Anfield, conceding at least three goals each time. They have failed to score against the Reds on 20 occasions in the Premier League era, which is their worst record against any team in the division.

Opta prediction: Arsenal won the reverse fixture with Liverpool 3-2 in the first major sign they were the real deal this season, though not since the 2009-10 campaign have they pulled off the league double in this fixture. They have a 22.6 per cent chance of doing so this weekend, according to the Opta model, while Liverpool are rated at 51 per cent to pick up the three points. A draw is given a 26.4 per cent chance of happening.

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    Arriving at Prenton Park six points behind leaders Manchester City with two games in hand, Chelsea had no margin for error but finished on the wrong end of a remarkable contest.

    The Blues started brightly and went ahead through Agnes Beever-Jones' header, with Catarina Macario being denied a second by a marginal offside call. However, Liverpool hit back early in the second half as Sophie Haug looped a header in from Marie-Therese Hobinger's corner.

    Matt Beard's Reds went ahead for the first time when another Hobinger corner was flicked in by Bonner at the near post, though Chelsea made it 2-2 with 10 minutes to play as Beever-Jones rifled into an empty net after Niamh Charles drew Teagan Micah off her line.

    Emma Hayes would have been expecting them to kick on from there, but Liverpool were back ahead within 59 seconds as Leanne Kiernan latched onto Ceri Holland's pass to slot home.

    Chelsea drew level for a second time when Macario's shot deflected in off Micah, but they were caught with a sucker punch as they chased a winner, Bonner glancing yet another Hobinger corner home to leave Hayes needing a miracle to deliver a farewell title. 

    Data Debrief: Hayes' hopes fading

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    Having been eyeing a quadruple just a few weeks ago, Chelsea now need an incredible collapse from City if they are to retain their title – given the Citizens' superior goal difference, just one more win may get them over the line.   

  • 'It's here to stay' – Postecoglou jokes he's moving to Sweden to escape VAR 'It's here to stay' – Postecoglou jokes he's moving to Sweden to escape VAR

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    "I'm moving there. I don't have a job, I'm just moving there," Postecoglou joked, before adding: "Yeah, it's here to stay, absolutely. It's not going away. 

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    Mauricio Pochettino says facing his former club Tottenham will always be "emotional", but his full focus is on guiding Chelsea through a testing period ahead of Thursday's London derby at Stamford Bridge.

    Pochettino enjoyed a successful five-year stint with Spurs between 2014 and 2019, leading them to a Champions League final and to three straight top-three Premier League finishes.

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    "But across 90 minutes we want to win and Tottenham are going to come here to try and win."

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    "Tottenham was amazing because the challenge was to create a team that could compete with top sides," he added.

    "Now at Chelsea, we are in the process of building an exciting project that needs time and this is maybe the most challenging period."

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    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    Chelsea – Cole Palmer

    Palmer, whose tally of 20 Premier League goals this term has only been bettered by Erling Haaland (21), has scored hat-tricks in each of his last two home games, netting three goals against Manchester United and four versus Everton.

    The only player to ever score three or more goals in three straight home Premier League matches is Haaland, who did so against Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest and United last season.

    Tottenham – Guglielmo Vicario

    Vicario failed to command his area from corners as Arsenal scored twice from such situations in last week's North London derby, and it's an area in which the Italian needs to improve.

    Only United (15.3) and Burnley (14.9) have allowed their opponents a higher cumulative expected goals (xG) figure from set-piece situations than Tottenham's 14.3 in the Premier League this season, though Chelsea's tally of 83 shots from dead-balls is a league-low number.

    MATCH PREDICTION – DRAW

    Chelsea have a great record against their London rivals, recording 34 Premier League wins over Spurs. Only United have beaten them more often in the competition, with 39 victories. 

    At Stamford Bridge, Chelsea have only lost one of the last 33 league meetings between the sides, going down 3-1 in April 2018 when Pochettino was in the Tottenham dugout.

    Tottenham are looking to avoid suffering three straight Premier League defeats for the second time this season, having also done so in November – a run which began with their 4-1 defeat in the reverse fixture against Chelsea. 

    Postecoglou's men could think themselves unfortunate on that occasion, though, missing several good chances to get back into the game despite being reduced to nine men by red cards for Cristian Romero and Destiny Udogie. 

    One thing is for certain – goals should be expected. Chelsea have already conceded 59 Premier League goals this term, their most in a single campaign in the competition, while Spurs have shipped 52 and failed to keep a clean sheet in their last six matches. An entertaining draw could be on the cards. 

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Chelsea – 39.9%

    Tottenham – 32.6%

    Draw 27.5%

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