EPL

Premier League predictions: Arsenal facing Salah threat, Lampard to get the better of Lopetegui?

By Sports Desk April 07, 2023

Arsenal face another major obstacle in their quest to land a first Premier League title in 19 years when they travel to Liverpool on Sunday.

The Gunners have historically struggled at Anfield, though Mikel Arteta's men have passed most tests this season en route to opening up a healthy lead over Manchester City.

While Arsenal will be looking to continue their good form, having won seven league games in a row, it is the start of another new chapter for Chelsea when they head to Wolves.

Frank Lampard was this week appointed as caretaker manager for the rest of the season following the sacking of Graham Potter, with Chelsea way down in 11th place.

There are plenty of other big games at the top and bottom of the division this weekend, not least at Old Trafford where Manchester United and Everton face off.

United got their top-four hopes back on track in midweek and will be seeking some momentum when they take on an Everton side sitting level on points with the bottom three.

Here, with the help of Opta data, Stats Perform has provided some key insights and predictions.


Manchester United v Everton

United have dominated this fixture down the years, with their 38 Premier League wins against Everton the second most one team has over another after the Red Devils themselves against Tottenham (39 wins).

Erik ten Hag's men have won both meetings with Everton in all competitions this term – 2-1 in the league at Goodison Park and 3-1 in the FA Cup on home soil – and could make it three wins in a single campaign against them for the third time (after 1993-94 and 2015-16 seasons).

Everton have improved since Sean Dyche took charge, picking up 12 points from their nine league games under him, with that seven more than they managed in their final 12 games under Lampard.

Best bet – Everton to score at Old Trafford: The Toffees' away form this season may be terrible, as is their overall record at United, but they have scored in each of their past nine Premier League games at Old Trafford, with that the Red Devils' longest run without a clean sheet against a single opponent in the competition.

Long shot – Everton to avoid defeat: Scoring away at United is one thing; holding on for a point or more is another. Everton have won just one of their past 29 away league meetings with United, but their past three visits to Old Trafford have finished all square.

Opta prediction: United failed to win any of their six matches in the early Saturday kick-off slot last season, but they have won all three such games this campaign, including a 2-1 win over Manchester City in January. Everton have won just two of their past 31 away league games, meanwhile, and Opta's model gives them only a 20.6 per cent chance of winning at Old Trafford. United are given a 52.7 per cent chance of success, meanwhile, and the draw is rated at 26.7 per cent.

 


Wolves v Chelsea

Chelsea have failed to win on their past two league visits to Molineux, but the good news is that their most recent victory there came in September 2019 under Lampard.

Wolves are unbeaten in their three Premier League games against opponents from London under the watch of Julen Lopetegui, having failed to win any of their previous 11 such matches prior to the Spaniard's arrival.

The Blues have picked up just 16 points from 14 away top-flight matches, which is their lowest return after 14 road games in a single campaign since 2000-01 (nine).

Best bet – Wolves to win without conceding: Given Chelsea's form, a Wolves win this weekend would hardly be the biggest of surprises – especially considering Lopetegui's men have won their past three league games against sides starting the day above them without letting in a goal (1-0 v West Ham, 3-0 v Liverpool and 1-0 v Tottenham).

Long shot – Raheem Sterling to score or assist: The Chelsea winger has been directly involved in just one goal in his past six matches, but since the start of the 2019-20 campaign, only Manchester City playmaker Kevin De Bruyne (nine) has been directly involved in more league goals at Molineux than Sterling among visiting players (three goals, two assists).

Opta prediction: Wolves are winless in their past four Premier League games against Chelsea since beating them 2-1 at Molineux in December 2020. The Blues will be hoping the new (well, returning) manager bounce pays off and the Opta model makes them favourites to win with a 42.3 per cent backing, compared to 27.9 per cent for Wolves and 29.8 per cent for the draw.

 


Liverpool v Arsenal

Arsenal are facing Liverpool as Premier League leaders for the ninth time, with the previous eight occasions producing a total of 33 goals at an average of over four per game.

Since briefly surrendering top spot to Man City following a 3-1 defeat in February, Arsenal have won their last seven Premier League games. They have scored at least three goals in six of these, including the last five in a row.

Liverpool have won five of their last six Premier League home games (D1), including each of the last three by an aggregate score 11-0. The Reds have not conceded in any of their past seven hours and 26 minutes of league football at Anfield, since Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall's strike for Leicester City in December.

Best bet – Mohamed Salah to score or assist: The Egypt international is expected to be recalled by Jurgen Klopp and that could spell bad news for Arsenal. Salah has been involved in 105 league goals in 105 games at Anfield for Liverpool (74 goals, 31 assists) and has scored in three successive home league appearances for the Reds.

Long shot – Arsenal to lose without scoring: The Gunners have lost on their last six league visits to Anfield, conceding at least three goals each time. They have failed to score against the Reds on 20 occasions in the Premier League era, which is their worst record against any team in the division.

Opta prediction: Arsenal won the reverse fixture with Liverpool 3-2 in the first major sign they were the real deal this season, though not since the 2009-10 campaign have they pulled off the league double in this fixture. They have a 22.6 per cent chance of doing so this weekend, according to the Opta model, while Liverpool are rated at 51 per cent to pick up the three points. A draw is given a 26.4 per cent chance of happening.

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    Charlie Smith 4, Tarrant 0

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    Portugal manager Roberto Martinez was in a defensive mood following his team's goalless draw away to Scotland in the Nations League on Tuesday night. 

    After scoring in each of the Spaniard's first 12 competitive matches in charge of Portugal, the Selecao have since drawn a blank in four of their last seven matches. 

    Portugal did have their chances, however, registering 14 shots during the contest, though only three were on target, ending the night with an expected goals (xG) total of 1.52.

    Martinez faced criticism for lacking a plan B after his side struggled to break the Scots down.

    "Our talent of our players, is plan A, B, C, D, E," he told De Sporto after the match.

    "We have players inside, outside, we are talking about a team that did not take risks, that defended very well.

    "We are talking about a team [Portugal] that reached 53 times in the last third. We have to give credit to Scotland and to us the fact that we managed to keep a clean sheet."

    It was a frustrating night for Martinez and fans alike.

    Despite Cristiano Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes and Diogo Jota among other big hitters starting, they were unable to find a way past 41-year-old goalkeeper Craig Gordon, who made some impressive saves when they did get in on goal.

    When asked what was missing from the performance, he alluded to a lack of individual quality.

    "A decision, a little bit of magic in the area. We had a lot of desire, we worked very well without the ball," Martinez said.

    "It was a dangerous game because we could have possession of the ball, but Scotland have little need to score a goal. We showed freshness, but we lacked freshness in the last third.

    "You also have to give credit to Scotland, they had a lot of players in front of goal, their goalkeeper also made a spectacular save."

    Following the performance and result at Hampden Park, there have been further questions about Martinez's selection policy for Portugal.

    The most high-profile query of all remains whether 39-year-old Ronaldo should continue, having had a difficult night on his 200th start for his country.

    "The national team always has an open door, but now we are talking about a very, very large group of players," said Martinez.

    "It is a question of continuing to connect and synchronise what we can do. Now the game in Porto is to celebrate qualification in front of our fans."

    Scotland manager Steve Clarke, meanwhile, was much happier with the evening's result, which ended a four-game losing run for Scotland.

    "It's not about turning a corner, it's just about working hard and not letting the country down. You could see that tonight," he said.

    "The point was important for us after the work the group put in to get off the mark."

    The result also marked Scotland's first clean sheet since beating Gibraltar 2-0 seven games ago in a pre-Euro 2024 warm-up friendly.

    The performance at the back was another thing that pleased Clarke.

    "Defensively sound, the shape of the team was good," he said. 

    "We denied a lot of space in behind. Good concentration in the box, determined defending at times, some really good blocks, which you need against sides like Portugal.

    "Everyone contributed to earn the point."

    Despite taking an unexpected point, Scotland are still bottom of their Nations League group, while the draw means they are winless in 10 matches - their longest ever run.

    But Clarke feels the players will take a lot from Tuesday's match that will help them going forward.

    "Everyone keeps talking about confidence, but they know they can play well," he said. 

    "We maybe didn't play as well as we could on the ball, which could be down to fatigue. But I don't think they lack confidence. Tonight's point will give us more confidence."

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