EPL

Premier League predictions: Man City big favourites against Liverpool, Arsenal to maintain title charge

By Sports Desk March 31, 2023

Premier League leaders Arsenal went into the international break with an eight-point advantage, and the Gunners will be hoping for a favour from Liverpool on Saturday.

Before Arsenal host strugglers Leeds United, Liverpool travel to the Etihad Stadium to face second-placed Manchester City.

Pep Guardiola's side have a game in hand on Arsenal, but surely they must beat the Reds to give themselves a realistic chance of retaining the title.

Elsewhere, there are more huge fixtures at the bottom of the table, including West Ham v Southampton, while Newcastle United and Manchester United play in a repeat of February's EFL Cup final.

 

Manchester City v Liverpool

Liverpool, who won the reverse league fixture 1-0, are looking to complete the league double over City for what would be just a second time in the last 17 seasons, previously doing so in Jurgen Klopp's debut campaign in 2015-16.

Mohamed Salah has scored in all three of Liverpool's games against Man City this season, in the Premier League, Community Shield and EFL Cup. The last Liverpool player to score in four different games against an opponent in a single campaign was Ian Rush, netting in five meetings with Everton in 1986-87.

Erling Haaland has scored 42 goals in all competitions for City this season, including six hat-tricks (all at the Etihad). Only two players have scored more in a single campaign for a Premier League club (since 1992-93) – Ruud van Nistelrooy in 2002-03 and Salah in 2017-18 (both 44).

Best bet – City to avoid defeat:  City have lost just one of their last 13 Premier League home games against Liverpool (W7 D5), going down 4-1 in November 2015 under Manuel Pellegrini. Guardiola's team have won their last three top-flight games, but have yet to win four in a row this season. 

Long shot – Liverpool to win:  Liverpool have won more Premier League games against reigning champions than any other side (23). They are aiming to achieve their first such double since 2013-14, beating Manchester United 1-0 at home and 3-0 away. However, they have taken just 12 points from their 13 Premier League away games this season (W3 D3 L7), compared to 30 at home.

Opta prediction: Despite the fierce rivalry over recent years, City are the big favourites for this game, with Opta's supercomputer ranking their chances of victory at 50.9 per cent. The draw is at 26.4 per cent, with Liverpool handed a 22.7 per cent chance of success.

 

Arsenal v Leeds United

Leeds have won just two of their 23 Premier League games against the league leaders (D9 L12), though both victories came away from home (v Middlesbrough in August 2000 and Man City in April 2021). They have lost all four such games against Arsenal by an aggregate score of 14-2.

Arsenal have won their last six Premier League games, their joint-longest such run under Mikel Arteta. They last won seven in a row between August and October 2018 under Unai Emery.

Arsenal’s top scorer in the Premier League this season is Gabriel Martinelli with 13 goals. The last player to score more while aged 21 or under in a single campaign in the division was Dele Alli in 2016-17 (18).

Best bet – Bukayo Saka to score or assist: Only Erling Haaland (33) and Harry Kane (23) have been involved in more Premier League goals than Saka this season (22), with the winger the only player so far to reach double figures for both goals (12) and assists (10).

Long shot – Leeds to keep a clean sheet: Since a 0-0 draw in their first Premier League away game against Arsenal in February 1993, Leeds have not drawn or kept a clean sheet in any of their subsequent 13 league visits to the Gunners (W3 L10), shipping 31 goals in total.

Opta prediction: Opta do not give Leeds much chance at Emirates Stadium (15.5 per cent). Arsenal are huge favourites, with a 61.6 per cent win probability, while the draw is ranked at 22.9 per cent.

 

West Ham v Southampton

Coming into this weekend's games, Southampton have picked up the highest share of their Premier League points this season away from home (57 per cent - 13/23). Meanwhile, only Nottingham Forest (77 per cent) have a higher share of points won at home in 2022-23 than West Ham (75 per cent - 18/24).

Southampton have picked up as many points in their six Premier League games under Ruben Selles (8 – W2 D2 L2) as they had in their 17 league matches beforehand (W2 D2 L13).

Sides starting the day bottom of the Premier League have won 11 league matches this season, four more than the whole of last term (seven), and the most in a single campaign in the competition since 2017-18 (12). Southampton have been responsible for three of those victories by bottom-placed sides in 2022-23, a joint-high (also Leicester).

Best bet – James Ward-Prowse to create two chances:  Coming into this weekend's games, only Kieran Trippier (49) has created more chances from set plays than Ward-Prowse (35) in the Premier League this season, while the Southampton captain is the only player to create 25+ chances from both open play (27) and set pieces (35) in the division this term.

Long shot – A goalless draw: No other sides have kept fewer clean sheets in the Premier League this season than Southampton (four) and West Ham (five)

Opta prediction: Despite both of these teams struggling, it is West Ham who Opta give 51.4 per cent chance of claiming all the points. Southampton have been responsible for three of the seven victories by the bottom-placed side this season, but the likelihood of them succeeding this time stands at 21.7 per cent. 

 

Newcastle United v Manchester United

Following their goalless draw at Old Trafford in the reverse fixture, Newcastle are looking to keep a clean sheet in consecutive Premier League games against United for the first time since May 1997.

No player has scored more winning goals in the Premier League this season than Marcus Rashford, with nine of his 14 strikes being the winner. Only two United players have ever scored more winning goals in a single campaign in the competition – Cristiano Ronaldo (12 in 2007-08) and Wayne Rooney (10 in 2009-10).

Coming into this weekend's fixtures, only Bournemouth (38), Nottingham Forest (32) and Leicester (30) have conceded more away goals in the Premier League this season than United (27). Indeed, only in four different Premier League campaigns have the Red Devils conceded more on the road – 1999-00 (29), 2001-02 (28), 2018-19 (29) and 2021-22 (35).

Best bet – United to win: United have won more Premier League away games against Newcastle than any other side (14). However, they have lost two of their last five such visits (W2 D1), having lost just one of their previous 13 at St James' Park. Newcastle are winless in six Premier League games against Man Utd (D2 L4), though the last two have both been drawn.

Long shot – Rashford and Alexander Isak to score: Rashford has been involved in seven goals in his eight Premier League starts against Newcastle (four goals, three assists) – only against Arsenal and Leicester City (nine each) has he been involved in more. Isak, meanwhile, has scored six goals in 10 Premier League appearances for Newcastle this season, including three in his last two. 

Opta prediction: This could prove a big game in the top-four race, with Newcastle only three points behind third-placed United. The visitors are made very slight favourites (36.8 per cent to 34.2 per cent). The draw is given a 29 per cent chance.

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    Ange Postecoglou has stressed that the chance to join the treble-winning Celtic managers is far too important to allow talk of his future to disturb his focus on Saturday’s Scottish Cup final.

    Beating cinch Championship side Inverness at Hampden will give Postecoglou’s team a clean sweep of domestic trophies and make it five out of six available since he arrived from Yokohama F Marinos in Japan in June 2021.

    But much of the build-up to the game has been dominated by increased speculation over Postecoglou’s future amid reports the former Australia head coach is Tottenham’s preferred managerial candidate.

    The 57-year-old said: “Somebody else was favourite last week, wasn’t he? So, it doesn’t register.

    “I get all the interest and why people love to speculate on these things. But we have worked really, really hard to get ourselves into this position and, for me to let my mind wander about anything else than getting our team prepared for a big day on Saturday, is just not who I am.”

    Postecoglou has been linked with numerous Premier League clubs this season including Leeds, Everton, Brighton, Crystal Palace and Chelsea so he feels no need to address his players on the matter.

    “You are making it sound as if it’s the first time this has happened to me,” he said. “We have done this dance a few times this year. The players are well aware of where my thoughts lie.

    “The players have been really good at focusing on what’s important. What’s important is being ready for a big game on Saturday.

    “I have handled it before and I’ll handle it the same way. It doesn’t enter my sphere of thinking because my role is to make sure the team is absolutely prepared for what the next challenge is.

    “If a cup final isn’t enough to draw all my attention to that, then nothing will be.”

    The former Australia head coach, who is on a 12-month rolling contract, also dismissed questions over whether he had talks planned with the club hierarchy.

    “No, because again that would mean me planning, organising, thinking about things other than Saturday,” he said.

    “Look, I understand that’s your job to ask these questions because that’s the role you are in, but you are not invested in this football club like I am, like the players are, like our supporters are.

    “I woke up this morning thinking about one thing, the same thing I have been thinking about for the last five days. I really want to make sure that we play well in this cup final and make it a truly special season.

    “I know this football club has had a lot of success recently including trebles but over the history of time there aren’t too many that can claim to that. Not just for myself but for some of these players, it might be the only one they get. So we need to focus on that.

    “It’s a massive role to be manager of this football club and for me to be dismissive of potentially our biggest game of the year is just not going to happen.”

    Postecoglou could emulate Jock Stein, Martin O’Neill, Brendan Rodgers and Neil Lennon in winning the treble and is relishing the experience of Scottish Cup final day, after losing to eventual winners Rangers in last year’s semi-finals.

    “Obviously it was the one trophy that escaped us last year and just the whole day, the occasion, it’s the last game on the calendar and just to be part of it was the first thing we were excited about,” he said.

    “Back home the English FA Cup final followed by the Scottish FA Cup was kind of tradition – that was our Saturday night in May. We would religiously watch that, it was a bit of an event for us to sit around and watch those two games.

    “It’s not just that it’s a cup final, it’s the occasion, the last game, there is always more about it, just the ceremony of the day. You would love to be a part of it.

    “I didn’t watch it last year, so that goes to show that we were still hurting from the fact we weren’t there.

    “Now we are there and that’s why we want to make the most of it.”

    Postecoglou is also well aware of the history between the two finalists. Inverness have beaten Celtic in three of their seven Scottish Cup meetings, including the only one at Hampden, in the 2015 semi-finals, and in the first one, when then First Division Caley Thistle caused a huge upset which cost John Barnes his job.

    “It’s a cautionary tale, put it that way,” Postecoglou said. “It has been mentioned to me a few times, I was aware of it anyway of course.

    “But that’s what I am talking about. When people think that I’ve got other things on my mind, that I’d allow anything to enter the sphere where we are not preparing ourselves for that occasion… I don’t want to be that story.

    “I want it to have a different ending this time. I want us to be the winners and us to claim the Scottish FA Cup, so that’s where my head’s at.”

  • Young players taking their life should not become a norm – Tareiq Holmes-Dennis Young players taking their life should not become a norm – Tareiq Holmes-Dennis

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    “You don’t want it to become a norm. There are so many people going through situations where they are mentally struggling.

    “It is starting to be highlighted a bit more. Some clubs in particular are putting time and effort into giving the resources to players and, ultimately, it’s players who make the club perform.

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    “There is a magnifying glass on that now which is good because it is easy to look from the outside and say ‘you’re paid to do X, Y, Z’. There’s a lot more that goes into that and there’s a lot of repercussions for players off the pitch if their mental health isn’t in the right place.

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    After starting his career at Charlton, joining Huddersfield in 2016, Holmes-Dennis made 107 senior appearances – including 30 for Bristol Rovers – before the injury he suffered against Rochdale on August 5, 2017.

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    Also available to members is a wellbeing network and, in 2021-22, 600 accessed the service, resulting in more than 7,000 therapy sessions.

    In the last 10 months, the PFA has also appointed former Arsenal executive James King as its general counsel.

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    “It’s massive because it’s a stress you wouldn’t want to take on your own,” he said. “You might not understand how to navigate the situation.

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