Arsenal crashed out of the Europa League with a penalty shoot-out defeat to Sporting CP on Thursday, and Mikel Arteta will be looking for an instant response in the Premier League.
The title is now their sole focus, and with Manchester City in FA Cup action this weekend, the Gunners can move eight points clear at the top should they beat Crystal Palace, who on Friday sacked Arsenal great Patrick Vieira after an 11-game winless run.
Palace are 12th but only three points above the relegation zone, and that picture could change by the time they play on Sunday.
After Nottingham Forest welcome Newcastle United on Friday, Bournemouth visit Aston Villa, Leicester City have a tough trip to Brentford, Southampton host Tottenham, and Wolves and Leeds United face off in another big match at the bottom of the table. Everton, who are also in the relegation scrap, play Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.
Here, with the help of Opta data, Stats Perform has provided some key insights and predictions.
Southampton v Tottenham
Between December 2019 and January 2021, Southampton won five of six Premier League games against sides starting the day in the top four of the table (L1). However, since then they are winless in 15 such games (D6 L9), conceding 43 goals and scoring just nine in return.
Southampton have scored at least once in each of their last 14 Premier League games against Spurs, since a 2-0 home loss in December 2015, but they have kept just one clean sheet in their last 21 against them, when they won 1-0 in January 2020.
In all competitions, Tottenham have lost each of their last four away games, the last three of which without scoring. This is Spurs' longest run of away defeats in succession since May 2019 (five in a row), while not since January 1983 have they lost four straight away matches without scoring (a run of five).
Best bet – Harry Kane to score or assist: Harry Kane has been directly involved in 17 goals in 15 Premier League appearances against Southampton (11 goals, six assists), having only had a hand in more goals against Leicester (22). The England captain has scored nine away goals in the competition this season – no other player in Premier League history has netted 10 times on the road in more than four separate campaigns, whereas Kane is on the verge of doing so for the seventh time.
Long shot – Richarlison to score: Richarlison was desperately unlucky not to break his duck for Spurs in the win over Forest last week, with a fierce finish ruled out for offside. The Brazil forward has netted five times in his last seven league appearances against Saints, making them his favourite team to play against when it comes to goals, but he is yet to score in the Premier League this season.
Opta prediction: Spurs are made favourites for this one by Opta's supercomputer, with Antonio Conte's team given a 54 per cent chance of victory. There is roughly a one in four chance of a draw (25.7 per cent), while Southampton, who prop up the table but could move as high as 15th with a win, are given a 20.3 per cent chance of claiming the spoils.
Wolves v Leeds United
Having been unbeaten in six league games against Leeds between 2017 and 2021 (W5 D1), Wolves have lost their last two against the Whites. Indeed, Leeds are looking to complete their first league double over Wolves since 2015-16 and their first in the top flight since 1973-74.
Leeds, who will be without key midfielder Tyler Adams due to a hamstring issue, have earned four points from their three Premier League games under Javi Gracia (W1 D1 L1), as many as they had in their 10 games before his arrival (W0 D4 L6). However, they are winless in their last seven away matches (D2 L5).
Wolves boss Julen Lopetegui has won both of his previous meetings with Gracia in all competitions. These games came in the 2020-21 campaign, with Lopetegui's Sevilla beating Gracia's Valencia 1-0 in LaLiga and 3-0 in the Copa Del Rey.
Best bet – Wolves to avoid defeat: No side have fewer away wins (one) or away points (six) in the Premier League this season than Leeds, who have lost nine of their 13 away league games this term. Wolves, meanwhile, have won three of their last four home league games (L1), more than they had in their previous 12 (W2 D3 L7).
Long shot – Wolves to score over two goals: Wolves have a shot conversion rate of 6.8 per cent in the Premier League this season, their lowest in any of their nine campaigns in the competition. Only once have they scored more than twice in a top-flight game this term, when they beat Liverpool 3-0 in February.
Opta prediction: Expect this one to be close, based on the prediction model, which makes Wolves the slight favourites (39.3 per cent), although Leeds are at 31.3 per cent. A draw is certainly feasible and is given a 29.4 per cent chance.
Chelsea v Everton
Chelsea are unbeaten in their last 27 Premier League home games against Everton (W15 D12) since a 1-0 loss in November 1994. Against no side have they ever had a longer unbeaten run at Stamford Bridge in their top-flight history. Everton managed a 1-1 draw with a makeshift side in the corresponding fixture last season, but a win still evades them.
Before this season, Everton had beaten Chelsea in each of the last four Premier League campaigns, although all of their victories were at home. They have not beaten the Blues in five straight league seasons since the 1930s.
Everton have won three of their seven Premier League games under Sean Dyche so far (D1 L3), as many as they had in their 20 matches under Frank Lampard this season (D6 L11), but again all of those wins have come at home.
Best bet – Chelsea to win: Everton are winless in their last 11 Premier League away games against London sides (D3 L8), failing to score in each of the last four, and Chelsea have only failed to beat the Toffees at home twice since the start of the 2016-17 season.
Long shot – Everton to win 1-0: If the visitors are to claim a victory, expect it to be a cagey one. In fact, 40 per cent (30) of Dyche's 75 Premier League wins have been by a 1-0 scoreline, including his three as Everton boss. Of the 52 managers with at least 50 wins in the competition, only Tony Pulis (42 per cent – 41 of 98) has won a higher share by a 1-0 scoreline.
Opta prediction: Given Everton's torrid form on the road – they have won fewer Premier League away games (three) and earned fewer points on the road (18) than any of the 17 ever-present sides since the start of last season – and dismal record at Stamford Bridge, Chelsea are the overwhelming favourites at 54.1 per cent on Opta's model. Everton are handed a slim 19.3 per cent chance of success, while the draw is rated at 26.6 per cent.
Arsenal v Crystal Palace
Palace elected to part ways with Arsenal legend Vieira and could well be further embroiled in the relegation battle by the end of Sunday's game. After all, the Gunners have won their last five Premier League matches, netting at least three goals in four of those, including each of the last three.
Arsenal have won eight of their nine London derbies in the Premier League this season (D1); in English Football League history, no side have ever won nine all-London match-ups in a single season. Palace, on the other hand, have won just one of their eight derbies this term. The Eagles have, however, avoided defeat in their last four Premier League away games against Arsenal, with each of the last three ending level (W1).
Since his Premier League debut for Arsenal in January, no player has been involved in more goals for the Gunners than Leandro Trossard (six – one goal, five assists). He has five assists in his last four Premier League games, as many as in his previous 64 appearances.
Best bet – Gabriel Martinelli to have 2+ shots on target: After missing the crucial penalty in Arsenal's shoot-out loss to Sporting in Europe, Martinelli will be determined to put things right. He is Arsenal's highest goalscorer in the Premier League this season with 12 goals, including five in his last five appearances.
Long shot – Palace to keep a clean sheet: Palace have kept just one clean sheet in 22 away league games against Arsenal (49 goals conceded), a goalless draw in January 2021, while the Gunners have scored in all but one of their league games at Emirates Stadium this season.
Opta prediction: Arsenal are the favourites, although given the respective form of these sides, a 54.6 per cent win prediction perhaps feels a bit low – a reflection of Palace's recent unbeaten run at Emirates Stadium. Opta gives the draw a 26.5 per cent chance, while the supercomputer has a Palace win ranked at 18.9 per cent.
Premier League MD4: Lucky winners and unlucky losers
The Premier League is back after the international break, with plenty more thrills and spills to keep everyone entertained.
Manchester United got back to winning ways with a sweeping 3-0 win over Southampton, while Nottingham Forest stunned Liverpool at Anfield.
Manchester City continued their perfect start with a comeback win over Brentford, and on Sunday Arsenal claimed bragging rights in the North London derby.
But who were the lucky winners and the unlucky losers to emerge from this weekend's set of fixtures, according to the underlying metrics?
With the help of Opta data, let's find out.
Lucky winners: Nottingham Forest
Liverpool had made a perfect start to life under Arne Slot and were yet to concede a goal heading into matchday 4, but after a two-week break, things were not quite as rosy.
The Tricky Trees had faced 26 strikes before Callum Hudson-Odoi's long-range effort curled beyond Alisson, ending a 55-year wait for a Forest win at Anfield.
Forest managed just five shots in the game, creating an expected goals (xG) of 0.44, with Hudson-Odoi's strike only contributing 0.07 to that. They also managed just five touches in the opposition box.
Liverpool may not have been at their high-flying best, but they had 34 touches in the opposition area and had 14 attempts on Forest's goal but could not find a way through a well-drilled Nuno Espirito Santo side as Slot got his first taste of defeat in the job.
Unlucky losers: Brighton
Technically, Brighton were not 'losers' as they continued their unbeaten start to the season with a 0-0 draw with Ipswich Town.
But based on the metrics, they were unlucky not to come away with three points against the newly promoted side.
The Seagulls had a whopping 21 shots at the Amex Stadium, but accumulated just 1.66 xG, and only managed to test Arijanet Muric on six occasions despite their continued dominance.
They also had three big chances, from which players would have been anticipated to do better, but Kaoru Mitoma and Georginio Rutter failed to convert them as Fabian Hurzeler's side endured a frustrating day.
Lucky winners: Arsenal
Most Arsenal fans will not care how the victory over rivals Tottenham happened, just that they came away from the visit with three points, but the Gunners were savvy in their victory.
Indeed, Arsenal's two lowest possession averages (on record) in a Premier League game against Spurs have both come in 2024, with Sunday’s match their lowest total (36.3%).
Mikel Arteta's side did create a slightly higher xG (0.74 to 0.71), but from a much lower shot count as they only had seven attempts on Spurs’ goal, with Gabriel Magalhaes’ close-range header worth 0.23 xG.
It was Arsenal's lowest xG of the season so far (0.87 xG on MD2 is second), but their clinical edge proved the difference against a wasteful Spurs.
Unlucky losers: Fulham
Like Brighton, Fulham do not class as losers as they drew 1-1 with West Ham, but Marco Silva will be disappointed to have let the three points slip from their grasp.
Raul Jimenez's goal looked to have earned them a second win of the season until Danny Ings' clinical finish denied them.
Fulham were another of the teams to have 21 shots this weekend, the joint-most along with the Seagulls, though their 1.54 xG came in slightly lower, despite creating four big chances, of which they squandered three.
West Ham had only accumulated 0.52 xG until Ings' intervention, pushing it up to 0.76 with their third and last shot on target, condemning the Cottagers to a second consecutive draw.
Montego Bay United, Arnett Gardens, Mount Pleasant secure wins to open 2024-25 Wray & Nephew Jamaica Premier League
Montego Bay United FC, Arnett Gardens FC and Mount Pleasant Academy all secured wins on Sunday’s first day of the 2024-25 Wray and Nephew Jamaica Premier League (JPL) season.
Four-time champions Montego Bay United were the biggest winners of the opening week, securing a 4-1 victory over Vere Phoenix United FC at the Wembley Centre of Excellence, their first opening game win since they joined Jamaica’s top football league 13 years ago.
MBU took the lead in the seventh minute through newcomer Jordan Britto before Vere got on level terms four minutes later through Damion Thomas.
That score held through the rest of the first half but the second half was all Montego Bay United as Brian Brown, captain Owayne Gordon and Shaniel Thomas all scored within 15 minutes of each other to complete the 4-1 score line.
At the Anthony Spaulding Sports Complex, a Warner Brown double in the ninth and 10th minutes and a 55th minute goal from Kimani Arbouine gave Arnett Gardens a 3-0 win over Dunbeholden FC.
Last season’s beaten finalists, Mount Pleasant Academy, opened their season with a 2-0 win over Portmore United at Ferdie Neita Park.
The goals for the Theodore Whitmore-led unit came from Sue-Lae McCalla in the 27th minute and Shaquille Bradford in first half stoppage time.
Real Madrid handed injury boosts ahead of Champions League opener
Carlo Ancelotti expects to have several players back from injury in time for Real Madrid's Champions League opener against Stuttgart on Tuesday.
Jude Bellingham, Aurelien Tchouameni and Eder Militao are set to be available for the match at the Santiago Bernabeu, despite the Brazilian missing training as he required an extra day to recover fully.
Madrid won their record-extending 15th Champions League title last season, beating Borussia Dortmund 2-0 in the final to get their hands on the trophy.
Los Blancos were a force to be reckoned with in the competition last year, and were only behind for 7% of their total match time in the Champions League last season; the lowest percentage of any team.
Former mainstays Nacho, Joselu and the now-retired Toni Kroos are no longer part of the squad, and Madrid will also be without Eduardo Camavinga through injury.
However, Ancelotti said he was excited to start their title defence with "the best player in the world" Kylian Mbappe.
"Yes, we lost Nacho and Kroos, two of our most important players. And Joselu. In exchange, one of the best players in the world is coming. Do we have a better squad than last year? I think so," Ancelotti told reporters on Monday.
Meanwhile, it was Carvajal, who scored the opening goal in their triumph over Dortmund, who confirmed Bellingham's involvement, noting his importance to the side.
"Jude's return is fantastic news for us. We know what he contributes with and without the ball," defender Dani Carvajal said.
"We demand much more from ourselves and tomorrow is a new opportunity to continue growing."
All three European club competitions have been expanded to 36 teams this season and Ancelotti's side will also be taking part in the expanded men's 32-team Club World Cup, starting next June in the United States.
Forward Brahim Diaz was the latest player to be sidelined in a slew of injuries, and Ancelotti said their gruelling schedule was to blame.
"The calendar is too demanding. A new competition is coming, and we don't know how it will turn out," he added.
"It may or may not be more entertaining. The fact is that we have two more games in this competition."
The Italian, who has won the Champions League five times as a manager and twice as a player, said the competition holds a place above all else in his heart.
"For me this competition is very special, not only for the club. But it's not just that, it's the day-to-day work to get there," he said.
"The [Champions League] will always be the same even if they change the format a little and [its relation with] Real Madrid, the same. This [year] is going to be another [chance] at history and I hope we can reach the final like last year."
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