Lukaku and Haaland seek to maintain scoring records as Inter and Man City plot path to last eight – Champions League in Opta numbers

By Sports Desk March 13, 2023

Tuesday will bring two finely poised contests in the Champions League last 16 as the second legs continue.

A late goal from Romelu Lukaku gave Inter a narrow 1-0 advantage against Porto at San Siro heading into the return fixture in Portugal.

The Serie A giants did not exactly prepare well, though, losing 2-1 at lowly Spezia on Friday, while Sergio Conceicao's side earned a hard-fought 3-2 win against Estoril Praia the same day.

Manchester City host RB Leipzig fresh off a 1-0 win at Crystal Palace thanks to an Erling Haaland penalty, while the Bundesliga club moved up to third in the table following a comfortable 3-0 victory over Borussia Monchengladbach.

After their 1-1 draw in the first leg in Germany, Pep Guardiola will be hoping that home advantage can keep the club's dream alive of a first Champions League title.

Stats Perform has picked out the standout Opta data to preview Tuesday's games.

Porto v Inter

Porto have lost three of their five matches against Inter in the Champions League, though all three of those defeats came away from home. The return leg at the Estadio do Dragao could mean a different story, as they have earned one win and one draw against Inter on home soil.

Having said that, Porto have lost four of their last six home matches in the knockout stages of the Champions League, conceding 13 goals across those four defeats.

They have, though, won each of their last four home matches in Europe against Italian clubs, beating Roma, Juventus, Milan and Lazio in succession. The last Italian side to defeat them away from home was Juventus in February 2017.

Inter have progressed from four of their five two-legged Champions League knockout ties when winning the first leg, only being eliminated from such a position in 2005-06 by Villarreal.

Porto have been eliminated from six of their seven two-legged Champions League knockout ties when losing the first leg, only progressing in 2018-19 against Roma.

Lukaku's winning goal in the first leg meant he has scored eight goals in 12 appearances for Inter in the Champions League. His record of 111 minutes per goal is the best of any player to have scored five or more goals for the club in the European Cup/Champions League.

Manchester City v RB Leipzig

City are unbeaten across their last 23 home matches in the Champions League, winning 21. If they avoid defeat in this match, they will equal Arsenal's record for the longest home unbeaten run by an English club in the competition (24 games between September 2004 and April 2009).

Leipzig are unbeaten in five matches in the Champions League (W4 D1), their longest unbeaten run in the competition since a seven-game stretch in 2019-20 when they reached the semi-final.

The last team to defeat City at the Etihad Stadium in a Champions League knockout stage match was Liverpool in the 2017-18 quarter-final second leg – visiting sides have avoided defeat just once in eight matches since.

 

Marco Rose has taken charge of three matches in the Champions League knockout stages, with all three coming against City, after his Monchengladbach side were eliminated by the club in the last 16 in 2020-21. The only previous instance of a head coach facing the same opponent in his first four Champions League knockout stage matches is Frank Rijkaard against Chelsea between 2004-05 and 2005-06.

Haaland has scored 17 goals in 11 home matches in the Champions League for Salzburg, Borussia Dortmund and City, scoring at least two goals in seven of those games. The Norwegian has scored a goal every 49 minutes on average in these matches.

Leipzig forward Christopher Nkunku has scored 10 goals across his last 12 starts in the Champions League, including a hat-trick against City at the Etihad Stadium in September 2021. Nkunku is one of two players to score a hat-trick against City in the competition, the other being Lionel Messi in October 2016.

Related items

  • Maresca feels regret at Joao Felix's lack of Premier League game time Maresca feels regret at Joao Felix's lack of Premier League game time

    Chelsea manager Enzo Maresca has admitted that he is struggling to keep all of his talent happy ahead of their game against Leicester on Saturday.

    The Blues' first-team squad page listed 43 players at the start of the season, with 10 players having joined over the summer.

    As a result, this has meant limited game time for some of the club's more senior players, such as Joao Felix who is yet to start a Premier League game since joining permanently in summer.

    Despite this issue, Chelsea have started the season well and currently sit third after 11 matches, but Maresca feels a tinge of regret at not being able to involve everyone.

    "I feel a shame for Joao and I would like to give him more minutes in the Premier League but we need defensive balance and we cannot play with Joao, Cole [Palmer], Christo [Nkunku]," he said.

    "I’d like to put all of them on the pitch but then you need to defend, and you need the right balance.

    "I don’t have any doubts that if Joao keeps working well, he will find his moment in the Premier League."

    Leicester manager Steve Cooper, meanwhile, will have to pick his team up following a 3-0 defeat at Manchester United prior to the international break. He will have to do so without key player Ricardo Pereira, who is out for four months with a hamstring injury.

    "It's a real blow for everybody, and especially him. We'll all be with him now in his recovery," he told BBC Sport.

    Having kept just one clean sheet in 11 league games, Cooper is also aware of where his side need to improve.

    "We're not going to hide away from the chances and goals we're conceding, and we'll keep showing intent to improve that," he said.

    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    Leicester – Jamie Vardy

    Vardy is 37 years old, but tops the scoring charts at Leicester having netted four goals in the Premier League.

    He has opened the scoring on one occasion this season and has a conversion rate of 33.33% having scored his goals from 12 shots on goal.

    Chelsea – Cole Palmer

    Palmer ranks fifth in the Premier League top scorers so far this season, having scored seven goals. He also ranks equal-second for goal involvements, having added five assists alongside his goals.

    The Chelsea forward has had at least three shots in five of his last six league games and ranks fourth for total shots in the Premier League with 36.

    MATCH PREDICTION: CHELSEA WIN

    Chelsea earned a 1-1 draw at home to Arsenal in their last match before the international break, which left them third in the table and four points behind second-placed Manchester City

    That draw means that Chelsea have lost just one of their last 10 league games (W5 D4), which came against league leaders Liverpool in October.

    Chelsea have lost just one of their last seven away games against Leicester (W4 D2), winning four of their last five meetings overall.

    Leicester are winless in their last 13 Premier League games against sides starting the day in the top four of the table (D3 L10). They come into this with three defeats in their last four matches in all competitions (D1).

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Leicester – 19%

    Draw – 21.6%

    Chelsea – 59.5%

  • Arsenal players not in the best condition according to Arteta Arsenal players not in the best condition according to Arteta

    Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta has said that Arsenal are still struggling to get key players back to fitness ahead of their match against Nottingham Forest on Saturday.

    Captain Martin Odegaard made his first start since August in their 1-1 draw with Chelsea prior to the international break, having suffered an injury with Norway in September, but his side are struggling elsewhere.

    Both Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka were substituted in the second half of that match with injuries and subsequently pulled out of the England squad.

    "We are still missing a lot and some of the guys out there are not in the best condition," Arteta told BBC Sport.

    "That is all we are asking, that they are fit and available and in the physical condition to play at this level. We have not had any of that.

    "It was patch, after patch, after patch. A lot of players starting and not in the condition to finish games, so that is what I am praying for."

    Nuno Espirito Santo, meanwhile, insists his side will take lessons into this weekend from their 3-1 defeat against Newcastle last time out.

    "When you lose and win there is always a lesson to be learnt. We must learn an important lesson, we have been punished the way we have been punishing other teams," he said.

    Despite the loss, Nottingham Forest are still fifth in the Premier League table after 11 matches, level on points with Arsenal. Nuno himself was also named September's Manager of the Month.

    "Even though we lost the game, everyone at Forest should be proud of the players and how we have been working together. OK, let’s go again," he said.

    "I’m just proud from day one of the way we have been working as a team."

    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    Arsenal – Bukayo Saka

    No player has supplied more assists in the Premier League than Saka (seven), with Mohamed Salah trailing by one.

    The winger has also scored three goals for the Gunners and is one behind Kai Havertz as the club's leading scorer.

    Nottingham Forest – Chris Wood

    Wood is equal-second alongside Bryan Mbeumo and Salah in the Premier League scoring charts with eight goals.

    The 32-year-old has opened the scoring on six occasions in the league this season, while he has the best conversion rate (38.1%) of any player to have made more than 10 appearances.

    MATCH PREDICTION: ARSENAL WIN

    Arsenal are currently in fourth place, one position above their weekend opponents Nottingham Forest.

    They are unbeaten in eight home games in all competitions so far this season (W6 D2), including in their five home games in the league (W3 D2).

    The Gunners have won six of their last seven Premier League games against Nottingham Forest, including back-to-back victories last season.

    The visitors come into this on the back of a 3-1 defeat at home to Newcastle last time out, which ended a four-match unbeaten run.

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Arsenal – 67.1%

    Draw – 18.8%

    Nottingham Forest – 14.1%

  • 'Enigma' Haaland offers too much threat to be left out, says Mills 'Enigma' Haaland offers too much threat to be left out, says Mills

    Former Manchester City defender Danny Mills believes Erling Haaland is an "enigma", which is why it is so hard to leave him out of the side.

    Haaland has been a revelation since joining City in July 2023, and he has won the Premier League Golden Boot in both seasons so far, while also scooping up the Premier League Player of the Year award in his debut campaign.

    He has scored 105 goals in 114 appearances in all competitions for City, netting 16 times this term already.

    Haaland is averaging 1.09 goals per game in the Premier League this season, after making a record-breaking start to the campaign in which he scored 10 times in the opening six matches.

    Mills, who played for City between 2004 and 2009, thinks the 24-year-old's high-scoring record comes down to the efficient way he approaches matches.

    "Erling Haaland is a bit of an enigma," Mills told Stats Perform. "He's not your usual centre forward.

    "We expect our centre forwards to either drop deep, be a bit of a playmaker and create chances, or put on a high press, work the channels, and have lots of touches, closing people down.

    "Haaland stands in the middle of the pitch, makes the runs when he needs to, is very efficient, and puts the ball in the back of the net more often than not. He gets himself in good positions.

    "We can talk about him missing big chances, but he's also scored an awful lot of goals. That's the thing — a centre forward will always say you're better off being in the position and missing the chance than not being in the position because the goals will come. Everybody misses chances."

    Haaland also set the record for most Premier League goals in a single season in 2022-23, with 36, and he once again sits top of the goalscoring charts this term, though he has seen his goals dry up somewhat in recent weeks after his lightning-quick start.

    The Norwegian netted his 12th Premier League goal of the campaign in City's 2-1 loss to Brighton before the international break, ending a run of three games in all competitions without a goal.

    Nobody has had more shots than Haaland in the English top-flight this season (55), while only Aston Villa's Ollie Watkins (11) has missed more big chances than him (10).

    Mills suggested that Haaland is held to a higher standard than other forwards in the competition, but says even when he is not scoring, he offers too much to be left out of the starting line-up.

    "When we talk about patchy form for Erling Haaland, patchy form for him is still way better than most other players' form. It's better than 95% of Premier League strikers," Mills added.

     

    "That's why he gets criticised for missing big chances, because we expect him to score every single time. But he's just different.

    "I think it's very, very difficult to leave him out because he offers so much. He's so big, strong, powerful, and scores all types of weird and interesting goals at times.

    "He occupies three or four defenders because they’re all worried about his pace in behind, his aerial ability, or what he's doing. Leaving him out would be a big, big call.

    "It's not like he's going through a drought. An Erling Haaland drought is that he hasn't scored for two games. There are centre forwards all over the world who would love that to be their record, not their drought.

    "So, I think we need to have some perspective. Yes, he might miss one or two chances, but he's a massive threat and a fantastic goalscorer."

© 2024 SportsMaxTV All Rights Reserved.