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• Premier League MD11: Lucky winners and unlucky losers

  The final international break of 2024 is here, and we can safely say the Premier League is starting to take shape.

  Opta's supercomputer now has Liverpool, who are five points clear at the top following their win over Aston Villa on Saturday, as the favourites to go on and win the title.

  Manchester City lost a fourth straight game in all competitions as they went down 2-1 at Brighton, while Chelsea and Arsenal are third and fourth respectively after sharing the points.

  When assessing the underlying metrics, it looks like Sunday's draw at Stamford Bridge was a fair result, but that was not the case across the board this weekend.

  Here, we pick out the lucky winners and unlucky losers from matchday 11.

  Lucky winners: Manchester United

  Manchester United are now under new management, with Ruben Amorim officially starting as head coach on Monday. But interim boss Ruud van Nistelrooy ensured he went out with a high as the Red Devils beat Leicester City 3-0 on Sunday.

  However, it is fair to say United were rather fortunate to net three times at Old Trafford, with the data suggesting they did not even create chances worthy of one goal, never mind three.

  United's expected goals (xG) was 0.69, the third-lowest total in the league this weekend and behind Leicester's 0.77.

  Bruno Fernandes scored one and set up another on his 250th appearance for the club, either side of Victor Kristiansen's own goal, but from 13 shots, United, who had only 17 touches in Leicester's box, really did not create much in the way of quality opportunities.

  Indeed, their attacking quality instead told, with Fernandes and Alejandro Garnacho finishing well. At the other end, Leicester failed to make their moments count, despite hitting the target with five of their six shots.

  Spare a thought for Erik ten Hag, given when he was in charge, United's attack was underperforming. Now Amorim just needs to pick up where Van Nistelrooy left off...

  Unlucky losers: Manchester City

  Man City are suddenly the crisis club, having lost four straight games for the first time since August 2006. Pep Guardiola, meanwhile, has lost four games in a row in all competitions for the very first time in his managerial career.

  Erling Haaland also lost a Premier League match in which he scored a goal for the very first time, having put City ahead before Joao Pedro and Matt O'Riley clinched the points for Brighton.

   

  Brighton finished with 2.29 xG, so they did deserve to score at least twice. However, City can still consider themselves unfortunate, given their 2.22 xG was the third-highest of any team across the weekend.

  Their post-shot expected goals on target (xGoT) also rose to 2.98, showing that Brighton goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen was on fine form.

  City also created five big chances, missing four of them, and hit the woodwork once. That being said, they conceded eight big chances, with Brighton letting them off for six of those, so it was not a good day at the office for Guardiola.

  Unlucky losers: Bournemouth

  If Man City were unfortunate, then the team to have created the highest xG (2.61) this past weekend – Bournemouth – can consider themselves hard done by.

  Andoni Iraola claimed his team were worthy of the three points against Brentford, despite the Cherries losing 3-2, and the underlying metrics suggest the Spaniard was fair in his assessment.

   

  Only Tottenham (35 in their loss against Ipswich Town) had more touches in the opponent's box than Bournemouth's 34 at the Gtech Community Stadium, but Iraola's side were made to pay for some dismal finishing.

  Their xGoT dropped to 1.68, while Brentford's rose from 1.48 xG to 1.84 xGoT – essentially, the level of finishing from Brentford's players increased the likelihood they would score, while Bournemouth's finishing was below what would have been anticipated based on the quality of chances they had. That is further backed up by the fact the Cherries only got three of their 15 attempts on target.

• Forest taught 'a lesson' as winning run ended by Newcastle according to Nuno

  Nuno Espirito Santo acknowledged Nottingham Forest were taught "a lesson" by Newcastle United, even if he did not criticise his side following a 3-1 defeat at the City Ground.

  Forest had won their previous three matches to climb to third in the Premier League, and Murillo's opener had them on course for another victory.

  But that goal came against the run of play, and Newcastle continued to dominate, eventually equalising through Alexander Isak.

  Forest, who have been so solid at the back this season, went chasing victory and were instead caught out as both Joelinton and Harvey Barnes scored on the break.

  Those counter-attacks have been a large part of Forest's own attacking identity previously, and Nuno was full of praise for how ruthlessly Newcastle executed that tactic.

  "I cannot say that was a bad performance, that is totally out of the question," the Forest boss told BBC Sport.

  "We played against a very good team that was able to control us and then hurt us in the way we've been doing. It is a lesson for us to learn.

  "I just have to recognise that today we played a good team, who were better than us in many, many moments.

  "There's nothing to say about the [Forest] players. The character and belief was there."

  Newcastle were a little unfortunate to trail at half-time, having had seven shots to Forest's three and 60% of the possession.

  Yet Eddie Howe, the Newcastle coach, still saw plenty of room for improvement, which his side delivered on after the restart.

  "It was difficult, but we knew it would be," he said. "They are a difficult team to play against because they don't concede many chances and you're left fearing the worst when you go behind.

  "We had work to do at half-time, but credit to the players because the second half was up there with our best performances this season.

  "Everything we didn't do in the first half, we did at the start of the second half. We were intense and direct with our attacking. We asked more questions and could have scored.

  "I'm really pleased with the second half."

  Newcastle have won three in a row in all competitions for the first time in over a year, helped by a return to form for their attacking stars.

  Isak had netted only once this season before scoring in the past four successive matches, while Barnes again showed his quality from the bench. Six of his nine Newcastle goals have come as a substitute.

  Howe added: "We need our attacking players to contribute goals, and Alex has done that in the past few weeks with massive moments, then Joelinton and Harvey Barnes pop up with moments, too.

  "We know we have players who can make that difference, and I'm really pleased with that side of our game.

  "Harvey Barnes did what he does. He's an outstanding player. Trying to find room for him in the team is something that I am conscious of.

  "I'm really pleased he got that goal – I thought it was a fantastic finish."

• Nottingham Forest 1-3 Newcastle United: Visitors battle back for another City Ground victory

  Newcastle United fought back to win at the City Ground again on Sunday, beating high-flying Nottingham Forest 3-1 with a ruthless second-half display.

  The Magpies had defeated Forest away from home in each of the previous two seasons, but Nuno Espirito Santo's hosts have been a different prospect so far in this campaign.

  And Forest looked set for a fourth win in a row when Murillo nodded in his first career goal midway through the first half.

  That opener was arguably harsh on Newcastle, though, and a deserved equaliser arrived nine minutes after half-time as Alexander Isak scored in a fourth consecutive match in all competitions.

  Isak, who netted twice in a 2-1 win at Forest in March 2023, then turned provider for the second goal as Joelinton brilliantly beat Matz Sels, before substitute Harvey Barnes broke away to net the third.

  Another victory, following on from last week's win against Arsenal, lifts Newcastle to within a point of Forest, who remain third ahead of Chelsea hosting the Gunners later on Sunday.

  Data Debrief: Super sub Barnes shows Newcastle depth

  Newcastle had looked a little short in wide positions prior to a change last week that saw Joelinton moved into the forward line, but now they have a wealth of options.

  Joelinton starred on the left against Arsenal but scored a brilliant goal after moving to the right on this occasion, also contesting (16) and winning (10) more duels than any team-mate.

  Then Barnes arrived from the bench, on for the injured Anthony Gordon, and made the points safe with his ninth Premier League goal for the club and sixth as a substitute. Only Papiss Cisse (eight) and Callum Wilson (seven) have more Newcastle goals from the bench in this competition.