A trophy would provide substance to Ten Hag's Man Utd resurgence

By Sports Desk February 25, 2023

When Alex Ferguson addressed Manchester United's fans at Old Trafford in 2013 asking them to support his chosen successor, David Moyes, few would have anticipated what the next decade would be like for the club.

In the final nine years of his near 27 in charge of United, Ferguson won five Premier League titles, three EFL Cups and the Champions League.

The nine seasons following his retirement brought the Red Devils just one FA Cup, one EFL Cup and the Europa League.

That Europa League success in 2017 was the last time United won a trophy of any kind, with a rare gap of six years without silverware for the club with the most league title wins in England.

However, Sunday gives them an opportunity to bring that drought to an end when they face Newcastle United in the EFL Cup final, and it could be the latest step on the impressive return to form overseen by Erik ten Hag since his arrival ahead of this season.

 

The Dutch coach was the eventual replacement for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, with Ralf Rangnick's interim spell in between, but it's easy to forget how badly things started for Ten Hag.

United's first two games of the season saw them lose 2-1 at home to Brighton and Hove Albion before being thrashed 4-0 at Brentford.

Since then, Ten Hag's side have won 28 of their 37 games in all competitions, scoring 74 goals and conceding just 32, and overall they have a win percentage of 71.8.

Between Ferguson leaving and Ten Hag arriving, United have had Moyes, Louis van Gaal, Jose Mourinho and Solskjaer as permanent managers, none of whom had a win percentage as high after their first 39 games, with only Mourinho's above 60 per cent (61.5).

In fact, Ten Hag has already won more games than Moyes did in his entire 51 game spell (27).

Interestingly, Ten Hag's United have only scored a few more goals than Mourinho's did in his first 39 games (75-71), and have actually conceded more (38-30).

In terms of goal output, this United team has not outperformed previous ones across their first 39 games by all that much, with Moyes' side scoring 66 and conceding 39, Van Gaal's scoring 68 and conceding 38 and Solskjaer's scoring 58 and letting 43 in.

Ten Hag's side have clearly been more efficient in finding the goals to win games though, forcing those fine margins in their favour that are so often the difference between what is perceived to be success and failure at top clubs.

 

Statistically, the only noticeably significant difference in Ten Hag's United compared to his predecessors during their overall tenures at the club has come in the intensity of the team's pressing game.

Under the former Ajax boss, United have been winning possession in the final third at an average of 5.5 times per game, compared to Solskjaer's era when it was 4.2, Van Gaal's at 4.1, Mourinho's at 3.9 and Moyes at 2.7.

The trend was developing that way under Rangnick's brief interim spell at 4.7 times per game, but Ten Hag has taken it up another level again this season, making them look more like the aggressive high-octane United people remember under Ferguson.

The addition of Casemiro to the midfield has undoubtedly helped, with the Brazilian one of the best in the world at winning possession and putting pressure on opposition players.

He has produced all-round performances for United though since arriving from Real Madrid, with only Bruno Fernandes (201), Marcus Rashford (153) and Christian Eriksen (116) recording more than his 102 attacking sequence involvements, with all three having played more minutes than him.

In fact, the additions of Casemiro and Eriksen seem to have brought Fernandes back to the form he showed when he first joined from Sporting CP in January 2020.

It is Rashford, though, who has been the undoubted star of the season so far.

The England international scored just five goals in 32 games in 2021-22, but has hit 24 in 37 this season, already his most in a single campaign for United and including 17 goals at Old Trafford, the most at home by a player in a single season for the Red Devils since Wayne Rooney in 2011-12 (19).

 

United find themselves in a title race after recent stumbles by Arsenal and Manchester City, while also into the FA Cup fifth round and getting past Barcelona in the Europa League play-off round.

The fans are onside again with prospect of new ownership possibly also round the corner, and there generally seems to be a genuine feel-good factor that has been missing outside of some false dawns in recent years.

When Ferguson spoke to the fans in 2013, it would have been hard to imagine a possible EFL Cup win being seen as such a potentially significant moment for such a proud club, but United fans know as well as anyone that one trophy can often lead to more.

Ten Hag said as much at his press conference on Friday, stating: "I see [the season] so far not as a success. It's more the road to hopefully success. It's only success when you win trophies, but on Sunday we have an opportunity to get success."

It did not prove to be a sign of things to come for Van Gaal, who was sacked after winning the FA Cup, or for Mourinho, who could not follow up his EFL Cup and Europa League double.

It feels like there's more substance to this United revival though, and there are few better ways to cement that than by ending their trophy drought at Wembley on Sunday.

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    So there is still work to do for City if they are to match Chelsea's pace, with the Blues already boasting a goal difference eight better than that of their rivals.

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    Shaw's Golden Touch 

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    Shaw has been presented with nine big chances and has converted five of them, which is the highest conversion rate (55.56%) of the 13 players to have had more than three such opportunities in the league this term.

    Of players to have had at least 10 shots in the WSL, she also has the joint-best shot conversion rate (25%) – level with Nikita Parris (three goals from 12 shots) and Johanna Rytting Kaneryd (three goals from 12 shots).

    Since the beginning of last season, meanwhile, Shaw has scored 28 goals, at least 13 more than any other player in the competition (Elisabeth Terland is next on 15). 

     

    City were hoping their reliance on Shaw would be lessened when they swooped for the WSL's all-time leading scorer in Vivianne Miedema, but a recurring knee issue has left the former Arsenal star on the sidelines once more. Prior to her latest injury setback, Miedema had scored two goals in five games in all competitions for City.

    Shaw will have support from elsewhere, though. Lauren Hemp recently became the youngest player in WSL history to reach 50 goals and also leads the way for assists (five) and chances created (26) in the competition this season.

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    New Boss, New Look

    It is fair to say Bompastor has taken to the Chelsea job like a duck to water, becoming just the second WSL manager to win her first six games at a new club, after Jonas Eidevall with Arsenal. No boss has ever started with seven consecutive WSL wins.

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    Timing is Everything

    One theme of Chelsea's season has been their ability to come out of the blocks fast and bury opponents early on, such as when they netted twice in the first 16 minutes of their 2-1 win at Arsenal. The Blues have scored 11 first-half goals in the WSL this season, more than any other team. Their 7.28 first-half xG is also the highest in the league, beating City's 6.78.

    Given their overall tally of 23 goals, it is no surprise that Chelsea have also scored the most second-half goals (12), with City second with 10. City have, however, been notably stronger in the second periods of games – often requiring late goals to earn results – and have the highest second-half xG (9.8), with Chelsea's second-half xG down at 6.5.

    So, Chelsea are often faster starters, but must be aware of City's ability to pull results out of the fire. Saturday's visitors have gained the most points from losing positions in the WSL this term (seven). Chelsea have not gained any points from losing positions, though that is, of course, because they are yet to trail at any point.

    After Chelsea's magnificent start to the campaign, the Opta supercomputer still views them as hot favourites to retain their crown. The Blues are given a huge 79.3% chance of winning the title compared to City's 19.9%, with Taylor's team finishing second again in 66.8% of our 2024-25 season simulations.

     

    The significance of this game, though, means those figures could drastically change after Saturday. Bompastor's team are given a 53.7% chance of emerging victorious, while City's hope of victory are rated at 22.5%.

    City would surely be content with a draw on the road, which would halt Chelsea's winning streak and maintain their advantage at the summit, and 23.7% of the supercomputer's pre-match simulations finished all square. 

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