Urs Fischer is not the kind of coach to get overexcited easily. Indeed, there has been little serious talk of a title charge at Union Berlin, despite the fact they have occupied one of the top three spots for much of the season.
"It's even more surreal than it was before the game," Fischer said after Union won 2-1 at RB Leipzig on February 11. "Forty-two points in the 20th round, what should I say?"
A week before, Fischer had insisted 40 points was the only target after Union scraped an unconvincing home win over Mainz.
But that target has been surpassed, and next up it's Bayern Munich, and if Union win, then why shouldn't their fans, players and even coach start to think that something magical could be just around the corner?
The only frustration for Union ahead of Sunday's trip to Allianz Arena is that they do not head to the home of the 10-time reigning champions as league leaders.
Bayern's defeat at Borussia Monchengladbach last Saturday handed Union, hosting lowly Schalke a day later, a chance to move top with a win. Yet a frustrating 0-0 draw, the first time they had dropped points since before the World Cup, instead sees them sit third, with Borussia Dortmund having leapfrogged into second.
All three teams sit on 43 points and, with 13 rounds of games remaining, the title race is wide open.
Union returned to form in style on Thursday, beating Dutch giants Ajax 3-1 at home to seal their progression in the Europa League.
"It really doesn't get any better. I'm not only proud of the team, we can all be proud of ourselves," said Fischer afterwards.
With the help of Opta data and a German football expert, Stats Perform looks at what has been behind Union's remarkable campaign.
More than one way to play
"Everybody is obsessed with pressing, pressing and pressing, leaving huge gaps for players to exploit," Lewis Ambrose, a football writer based in Berlin, told Stats Perform.
"Why I think [Union] are doing so well is they just don't buy into that. It's about protecting our box and the other team can have it as much as they want, they're just not allowed to do what they want with it."
The data suggests this is the case. Union head into Sunday's game with the fewest pressed sequences of any side in the Bundesliga.
On average, they allow their opponents 15.8 passes outside their own defensive third before a defensive action occurs. Opta defines this as passes per defensive action (PPDA).
PPDA is the number of opposition passes allowed outside the pressing team's own defensive third, divided by the number of defensive actions by the pressing team outside their own defensive third. Essentially, a lower number means a team presses more frequently, while a higher number suggests a more passive approach.
Union have won the ball back in the opposition's third on 76 occasions across 21 league games this season, the second-lowest total in the Bundesliga after Bayer Leverkusen (69). Heading into the weekend, they also ranked in the bottom six for high turnovers (151) and bottom four for shot-ending high turnovers (19), scoring just once from such situations.
Bayern, on the other hand, lead the league with 138 instances of winning possession in the opposition defensive third, while they have the lowest PPDA (10.4). Their six goals from high turnovers is a joint-league high along with Eintracht Frankfurt, while Bayern are way clear in terms of high turnovers (237) and shot-ending high turnovers (42).
But Union are going about things their own way, and it's one of the secrets to their success.
Defence first
"Most Bundesliga teams are happy to play in a 'you score three, we'll score four' type of way, and it all ties into nipping the ball high up the pitch," Ambrose explained.
"Union have gone 'let's make sure nobody takes the ball in our final third, and they'll come onto us and leave gaps that way'.
"In a league where everybody plays one way, they play the complete opposite way."
Sunday's game is between the two sides to have outperformed their expected goals (xG) more than any other Bundesliga teams this season.
Bayern's league-high 45.03 xG has been improved on by 15.97, with the team scoring 61 goals, and this is by far the biggest margin in the competition. Union, meanwhile, have netted 11.15 goals more than they would have been expected to, based on the quality of opportunities they have created and shots they have taken (35 goals from 23.85 xG).
Going the other way, Union have conceded the second-fewest goals in the league (24), behind only Bayern (21). Yet their defence has been the best when it comes to expected goals against (xGA).
Union have actually conceded close to four goals more than would have been anticipated. This, combined with their 23.7 expected goals on target conceded (xGOT), which gives more credit to shots that end up in the corners compared with shots that go straight down the middle of the goal, shows they have been subject to some quality finishing from the opposition.
An uncompromising coach
Fischer was hardly the most celebrated of defenders during his playing career, which he spent entirely in his home country of Switzerland.
His coaching career, too, saw him lead FC Zurich, Thun and Basel before he made the move to Germany's second tier in 2018. The rest, as they say, is history.
Fischer got Union promoted in his first season in charge and after securing 11th in the 2019-20 season, took them up to seventh the following year and a remarkable fifth last term.
He has overseen 123 Bundesliga matches, winning 53 (43.1), losing 38 and drawing the other 32. As you'd expect, his team do not score many (176 in 123 Bundesliga matches, an average of 1.4 per game), but equally they keep things tight, conceding 169. Fischer has averaged 1.55 points per game in the top flight.
Ambrose believes Union are the perfect fit for Fischer, saying: "I can't imagine Fischer taking one of the top jobs in Germany and doing well.
"The only way it's ever going to work is if every player buys in, leaves their ego at the door, parks that to one side and is willing to sacrifice having fun on the pitch. I'm sure they're having the time of their lives, but if they're willing to sacrifice any flair, ego, they have to fight for the team and every loose ball."
The noisy neighbours
Hertha Berlin have for years been the prominent club in Germany's capital, but as they struggle at the wrong end of the table after scraping to survival last season, it's Union who are taking the bragging rights.
Since Union's promotion in 2019, they have won six of the nine derby meetings with their city rivals, who have taken just two victories. Union have won the last four by an aggregate score of 12-4.
"They're the model club," Ambrose says. "They don't spend much money, the fans get involved, the results improve, whereas Hertha have pumped money in chasing magic results and fallen deeper into crisis."
Going all the way...
Bayern are unbeaten against Union Berlin in the Bundesliga (W4, D3) – they have only faced Rot-Weiss Oberhausen and SV Darmstadt (both eight times) more often in the top flight without ever losing. Indeed, Bayern are the only current top-flight side that Union have never managed to beat.
Yet a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture in August showed Union's mettle, and what better time to break their duck than now? After all, they have more league wins than Julian Nagelsmann's team this season (13 to 12) and have won each of their last three Bundesliga away games, equalling a club record.
Ambrose thinks Union will ultimately fall short due to results such as last week's draw to Schalke, but he sees no reason why the underdogs shouldn't believe they can pull off a sporting miracle.
"If they lose on Sunday, or finish six, seven points short, nobody is going to say they've failed," he said.
"I think they think they can [win the league] and they'll never admit it. They won't buy into the idea of a race, they're just riding the wave and enjoy it week by week.
"They'll back themselves to win any game at home because the atmosphere is brilliant and teams hate going there, and they'll probably back themselves to beat anyone away as well.
"There's no reason for them not to believe."
St. Benedict’s College defeats Fatima College 3-1 in SSFL top-of-the-table clash
St. Benedict’s College secured a 3-1 win over Fatima College in a top-of-the-table clash in Secondary Schools Football League (SSFL) Premiership action at the Mahaica Sporting Complex.
Goals from Captain Derrel Garcia in the 42nd and 59th minutes and a third from Ethan Trotman in the 80th secured the win and allowed them to move to 19 points from seven matches, three ahead of Fatima who have a game in hand.
Micaiah Leach gave Fatima the lead in the 30th minute.
Elsewhere, Arima North Secondary defeated San Juan North 2-1 at Bourg Mulatrasse. Micha’el John gave Arima the lead in the 42nd minute before Lindell Sween got the equalizer for San Juan North just a minute later.
Jahmarley Caleb got the winner for Arima North ten minutes from full time. The win moved Arima North up to fourth in the table with 14 points from eight games while San Juan remain in ninth with nine points from their eight outings.
A Kristian James 66th minute goal gave St. Mary’s College a 1-0 win over East Mucurapo Secondary at Mucurapo Road.
Presentation College got the biggest win of the day, a 5-0 victory over Speyside High at Mannie Ramjohn Stadium.
Thanks to goals from Vaughn Clement, Cody Cooper, Isaiah Jacob, Caleb Boyce and Duhrell Young, Presentation are now third in the table with 16 points from seven games. Speyside have four points from just five games to lie second from bottom at 15th.
Hosts Signal Hill Secondary suffered a 1-2 defeat at the hands of Queen’s Royal College. Kyle James got the goal for Signal Hill while the QRC goals came from Teshaun Franklin and an own goal from Raevion Marshall.
QRC are fifth in the standings with 13 points from eight games while Signal Hill are 11th with eight points from seven games.
In the day’s other games, St. Anthony College beat Miracle Ministries Pentecostal High School 3-1 at Westmoorings while a 12th minute Sumba Cudjoe strike gave St. Augustine Secondary a 1-0 win over Trinity College East at Trincity.
Calabar edge STATHS 1-0 to assume pole position in Zone D of Manning Cup; reigning champions Clarendon College among winners in dCup
Calabar High School regained pole position in Zone D of the Inter-secondary Schools Sports Association (ISSA)/Digicel Manning Cup following a 1-0 win over St Andrew Technical (STATHS) in a top-of-the-table clash at their Red Hills Road base on Saturday.
Jaheim Rankine got the all-important strike in the 34th minute to extend their unbeaten run across five matches and push Calabar up to 16 points, same as STATHS, who were relegated to second with a slightly inferior goal difference. Haile Selassie (nine points), Camperdown (seven points), Vauxhall (six points) and Kingston Technical (zero point) complete the standings.
Winning coach Andrew Price welcomed the character shown by his team on this occasion to overturn their first leg loss, as players occupied unfamiliar position.
“The players are resilient; we played today without two of frontline central defenders so we had to patch up the team today and people played in positions that they don’t normally play in. But we have a system that we have been playing for the entire season and once people fit into the system, then the team will play well and they showed some depth and character today to get the three points against a very good STATHS team,” Price said.
“I think we needed to be a bit more clinical in front of goal, but our strength is our defensive structure; we have only conceded two goals so far in the entire Manning Cup, which shows that we are very sound defensively, and we want to keep it that way. We are developing a football culture here at the school and we are going to continue to work diligently to ensure that we get some success along the line,” he added.
STATHS started more purposefully and created a few half chances in the early exchanges as the teams battled heavy underfoot conditions due to afternoon showers.
The Bumper Hall-based team should have broken the deadlock approaching the 20th minute mark but Ajetai Marshall muffed his effort from close range.
Calabar got into their rhythm and went close to finding the lead at the half-hour mark, but Rankin’s left-footed shot from a distance was parried by Jaheem Williams in goal for STATHS.
It is often said if you fail to succeed try again, and Rankine did just that to put Calabar in front as he released an even more delightful strike from about 30 yards out that had Williams beaten all ends up.
Calabar went close to doubling their advantage in 41st, but Williams got down well to his right on this occasion to steer Jayden Perry’s left-footed shot from outside the 18-yard box wide.
With the score unchanged at the break, STATHS made a push for the equaliser but failed to create any meaningful chances, and frustration inevitably set in, resulting in Alexavier Gooden being sent off for a second yellow in the 54th.
The numerical advantage created a few openings for Calabar, the best of which came in the 61st Rankine, who rounded the goalkeeper but selfishly went for shot from a tight angle instead of floating a cross in for Perry.
As the game approached its end, substitute Christiano Brown thought he stole a point for STATHS when she slid one through the goalkeeper’s legs, but the goal was belatedly flagged for an offside.
That left Head coach Phillip Williams disgusted as he called out the officiating as the worst part of the encounter.
“It is unfortunate that ISSA has invested so much and the schools have invested so much and the poor officiating just takes away from the game. I think that was the worst thing today; both teams played some decent football but the officiating needs to be better.
“I think what we didn’t do today was score, we have a style of football that we play and we played that today even when we went down a man but referees need to be better in Jamaica, they are very poor,” a disappointed Williams said.
Saturday’s Manning Cup Results
Calabar 1, STATHS 0
Dunoon Park 0, Eltham 0
Ardenne High 0, Hydel High 8
Ascot High 0, Jamaica College 5
Excelsior High 15, Pembroke Hall 0
Holy Trinity 0, St George’s College 5
Camperdown 0, Vauxhall 0
Saturday’s daCosta Cup Results
Munro 0, Maggotty 0
Manchester 1, Belair 0
Glenmuir 4, Old Harbour 0
Ocho Rios 8, Ferncourt 1
Anchovy 1, Green Island 2
McGrath 0, Dinthill 0
Maldon High 4, St James 1
Irwin High 1, Cornwall College 4
Green Pond 5, Herbert Morrison 2
Grange Hill 0, Godfrey Stewart 1
Mannings 6, Little London 0
Muschett 0, Cedric Titus 13
Spot Valley 0, William Knibb 0
Happy Grove 2, Morant Bay 0
Tacius Golding 0, Charlemont 3
Cross Keys 1, DeCarteret College 5
Newell 0, Lacovia 1
B.B Coke 1, STETHS 3
Claude McKay 0, Clarendon College 7
Central 2, Edwin Allen 1
Knockalva 0, Frome Tech 8
Cambridge 1, Rusea’s High 3
Toronto FC 0-1 Inter Miami: Campana's stoppage-time strike keeps visitors on track for MLS record
Leonardo Campana scored the winner in stoppage time to keep Inter Miami on course to beat the regular-season points record in MLS as they defeated Toronto 1-0.
With Miami having secured the Supporters' Shield by beating the Columbus Crew in midweek, Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez were benched for Saturday's trip north of the border.
But the duo came on to help Gerardo Martino's team to a victory that moved them up to 71 points with one game remaining.
The points record of 73 was set by the New England Revolution in 2021, and it is the Revs who visit Miami in the final regular-season game later in October.
Toronto got off to the better start as Kobe Franklin latched onto the end of Jonathan Osario's cross to shoot from a tight angle but saw his effort saved.
Despite further chances for Richie Laryea and Prince Osei Owusu, Toronto struggled to find a breakthrough, and substitute Suarez proved decisive as he delivered a first-time cross into the centre of the box, which Campana controlled and duly fired home a 93rd-minute winner.
The defeat dealt Toronto a blow to their ambitions of obtaining a playoff spot this season, opening the door for the Philadelphia Union, D.C. United and Nashville SC behind them in the Eastern Conference.
Data Debrief: Miami's stopping power
For Miami, the focus on adding an MLS record to their first Supporters' Shield triumph has seemingly helped keep them going this term. They have scored 15 goals in the last 15 minutes of the second half this season; only the Colorado Rapids and Portland Timbers have scored more such goals in the league in 2024.
On the other hand, Toronto have conceded 23 goals in the last 15 minutes of the second half - no team has conceded more in MLS this term.
Toronto have taken just one point from the last 15 on offer, and their slump has come at the worst possible time.
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