EPL

Premier League data dive: Arsenal produce rare late show, Forest finally deny champions

By Sports Desk February 18, 2023

The Premier League title race took another twist on Saturday, with Arsenal now back atop the pile.

Manchester City's 3-1 win at Emirates Stadium in midweek had seemingly given them control of the two-horse race for the trophy.

But City's failure to build on that success and Arsenal's late heroics on the road at Aston Villa mean the Gunners have a two-point lead over Pep Guardiola's men with a game in hand.

Elsewhere, Liverpool boosted their top-four aspirations while denting those of Newcastle United, who have now won just one of their last seven Premier League games.

Here, Stats Perform looks at Saturday's biggest games through the lens of Opta data.

Aston Villa 2-4 Arsenal: Jorginho and Martinelli produce late show

Saturday saw Arsenal reassume command of what is fast becoming an engrossing title race, but it looked for a long time as if they would suffer another setback.

The Gunners appeared set to settle for a 2-2 draw at Villa Park, only for Jorginho's rasping injury-time drive to cannon off the crossbar and then deflect in off Emiliano Martinez. Gabriel Martinelli made it 4-2 in the 98th minute.

It marked the first time Arsenal have scored a 90th-minute winner away from home in the league since Martinelli netted against Crystal Palace in May 2021, which was also the last time they scored twice in the 90th minute in the same game in the competition.

Arsenal's joy should be tempered somewhat by defensive concerns.

Indeed, Arsenal have now conceded the opening goal in four of their last five Premier League games, one more than they did in their first 18 games of the 2022-23 campaign (3).

Chelsea 0-1 Southampton: Saints pile pressure on Potter

The result was overshadowed by the head injury suffered by Cesar Azpilicueta, but it was an extremely significant one for Southampton, who boosted their survival hopes by completing the league double against Chelsea for the first time since the 1987-88 season.

Defeat for Chelsea was their first at home against the team starting the day bottom of the Premier League table for the first time since April 2014 vs Sunderland (1-2).

The Blues have lost three of their last six Premier League home games (W2 D1), as many defeats as in their previous 25 league games at Stamford Bridge combined (W13 D9), that run piling the pressure on manager Graham Potter.

Chelsea's latest home loss was engineered by James Ward-Prowse, who in scoring his 17th direct free-kick goal in the Premier League moved just one behind record holder David Beckham (18), netting 13 of them away from home.

Nottingham Forest 1-1 Manchester City: Forest hold champions at bay

If Forest do manage to stay up, their home from will be a significant reason why. They are unbeaten in eight home games in the Premier League (W4 D4), their best home unbeaten run in the top-flight since a 20-game stretch between February 1995 and January 1996.

Prior to this stalemate, Forest had lost their last seven Premier League games against the reigning champions, by an aggregate score of 29-3, including a 6-0 defeat to Man City earlier this season. They avoided defeat against the reigning champions for the first time since December 1994, when they beat Manchester United.

Bernardo Silva's fine opener initially looked like it would be enough for City to take all three points and return to the top of the league, and continued a recent theme for the Portugal international, who has 32 Premier League goals for the club. Three of his last four goals in the competition have been scored from outside the box, with only three of his first 28 coming from distance.

Jack Grealish laid on the assist for Silva. Grealish has been directly involved in six goals (2 goals, 4 assists) in the Premier League since the conclusion of the World Cup. Grealish had one goal and no assists in eight league appearances this season prior to the World Cup break.

Newcastle United 0-2 Liverpool: Pope sends Magpies hopes up in smoke

Newcastle have an EFL Cup final with Manchester United to look forward to next Sunday, but they will be without goalkeeper Nick Pope after his red card in this one for handling the ball outside the area.

Pope's red card was the fifth instance of a Newcastle goalkeeper being sent off in the Premier League, with only Liverpool and Aston Villa (6 each) seeing more keeper reds in the competition. 

He conceded twice before being sent off in the 22nd minute - the earliest a goalkeeper has conceded twice and been sent off in a Premier League game.

Those two goals came inside 17 minutes and were as many as Newcastle had conceded in their previous eight Premier League games combined, proving enough to extend the Magpies' winless league run against Liverpool to 13 matches (D4 L9) and end their 17-game unbeaten run in the competition.

The Reds are the only team to beat Newcastle in the Premier League this season, with victory coming on the back of just their second away clean sheet in 2022-23.

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  • McKenna fired up for 'biggest game in world football' against Man United McKenna fired up for 'biggest game in world football' against Man United

    Kieran McKenna believes Ipswich Town's Premier League clash with Manchester United will be the "biggest game in world football" this weekend.

    United are in action under new manager Ruben Amorim for the first time since the Portuguese officially replaced Arne Slot as head coach.

    While plenty of focus is on the visitors at Portman Road, Ipswich are fired up after beating Tottenham 2-1 before the international break.

    That was Ipswich's first league win of the season – and their first in the Premier League in 22 years – and now attention turns to facing United.

    McKenna, who previously coached United, said at a fan event this week: "Sunday, what a game. It's one we're really, really looking forward to.

    "Not for the personal connection, but as manager of Ipswich Town, to be on that stage, it's what we've worked so hard for.

    "It's the biggest game in world football anywhere this weekend, the biggest game in the world in the biggest sport in the world and it's at Portman Road."

    Ipswich's surprise win at Tottenham last time out moved them up to 17th, while United are 13th after beating Leicester City 3-0 in Ruud van Nistelrooy's final game in caretaker charge.

    Amorim took his first training session on Monday, albeit with many first-team stars away on international duty, and the former Sporting CP boss believes his style of play will be clear to see from the off. 

    "I think you will see an idea," he told the club's website. "You could like it or not, I don't know, but you will see an idea. 
     
    "You will see a positioning. You will see something that we want to reach that kind of level. You will feel that. 
     
    "We have to know it's [only] two trainings before the first match. This is the best league in the world. But if I have to say something to you, [it's that] you will see an idea. This I can guarantee."

    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    Ipswich Town - Liam Delap

    Delap scored what proved to be Ipswich's winner against Tottenham and has now netted six of his side's 12 Premier League goals this term.

    That makes the Manchester City academy product one of only three players to have scored at least half of his side's goals in the competition this season, along with Erling Haaland at City (55%) and Chris Wood at Nottingham Forest (53%).

    Manchester United - Alejandro Garnacho

    Garnacho was among the scorers against Leicester two weeks ago and has now been directly involved in 20 Premier League goals for United (13 goals and seven assists).

    The Argentina international is one of only two non-British players to reach that figure for United before turning 21, along with Cristiano Ronaldo (25 goals).

    MATCH PREDICTION: MANCHESTER UNITED WIN

    Ipswich are seeking back-to-back Premier League wins for the first time since February 2022, with that run also beginning with a 2-1 victory against Tottenham.

    The Tractor Boys are the only side in the competition without a home win this season. Only five newly promoted clubs have failed to win any of their first six home matches, all of whom went back down.

    United have won 17 of their past 19 Premier League games against newly promoted opponents, meanwhile, including nine wins in a row in away fixtures.

    The Red Devils were 1-0 winners on their most recent league trip to Portman Road in April 2022, but only once have they won successive league games away to Ipswich.

    However, the Tractor Boys have lost four of their past five league matches against Man United, failing to score in each of those losses.

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Ipswich Town - 22.2%

    Draw - 23%

    Manchester United - 54.8%

  • Amorim told Europa League qualification is 'mandatory' in first Man Utd season Amorim told Europa League qualification is 'mandatory' in first Man Utd season

    Ruben Amorim must at least guide Manchester United back into the Europa League in his first season as the club's manager.

    That is the view of ex-Manchester City defender Danny Mills, whose former side were beaten 4-1 by Amorim and Sporting CP in the Champions League earlier this month.

    Amorim has been hired by Man Utd to replace Erik ten Hag after the Dutchman was sacked midway through his third season in charge at Old Trafford.

    Having taken charge of his final games in Lisbon, a spell which included that famous continental win over Man City, Amorim started his work at United during the international break.

    His first game at the helm comes this Sunday away at Ipswich Town and while Mills acknowledges the task of rebuilding United's team is a long-term project, he feels there is still a certain level of results Amorim needs to hit in the 2024-25 season.

    "Amorim needs to figure out which players fit his mould and buy into his project," former England international Mills said to Stats Perform.

    "That will take six months or so. Then he will need to move some players out and bring new ones in. 

    "This season, though, they still need success. European football – Europa League – is probably mandatory. They must avoid the Conference League. 

    "Without being disrespectful, third-tier European football isn’t good enough for Manchester United, so it has to be the Europa League or Champions League. 

    "The Europa League is very achievable and not making it would be a huge disappointment. 

    "There are still good players at the club and they have still got to aim for the Champions League, but [getting into the top four] will take good coaching, a big turnaround, and maybe a bit of luck."

     

    Amorim is the seventh different manager to take charge of the club since Alex Ferguson's retirement in 2013. 

    The 39-year-old won three Portuguese league titles with Benfica as a player while he left Sporting as head coach after guiding them to two league titles and two Taca da Liga trophies.

    Sporting also started this season by winning all 11 league games under Amorim before his departure.

    "The appointment of Ruben Amorim is a good one," added Mills. "You have to look at the people involved [in the appointment] as well.

    "Dan Ashworth hasn’t made too many wrong decisions as a sporting or technical director. Throughout his career, at West Brom, England, Brighton, and Newcastle, his recruitment has been very good. 

    "Jason Wilcox, who sits under him, did incredibly well at Manchester City. He identified many young players who, if they didn’t become stars at City, went on to become stars elsewhere.

    "Recruitment will be handled well in terms of managers, coaches, and players, but that takes time and it’s going to take at least two or three transfer windows. 

    "I like that Amorim came in and said, ‘Right, that’s it. A new start’. He has moved away from the Ferguson era that people keep harping on about.

    "Ten-plus years ago, we knew how good Manchester United were, but football moves on. Liverpool went through a similar phase after their success in the 1980s."

     

    Amorim takes over at United with the club 13th in the Premier League with 15 points from 11 matches and having collected just one win from four matches in the Europa League. 

    Mills believes there is plenty for United fans to like about the new boss' approach on and off the pitch.

    "Football has evolved faster in the last 10 years than ever before and Amorim deals with the press well," he said.

    "When Sporting beat Manchester City, he admitted they played well but got a bit lucky. People appreciate that honesty. 

    "Fans and pundits are more knowledgeable now than ever before, thanks to the amount of football they consume and the opinions they hear, especially on social media."

     

    After facing Ipswich, Amorim's first two home games will see Man Utd take on Bodo/Glimt in the Europa League and Everton in the Premier League.

    He will then take the Red Devils to the Emirates Stadium for a huge clash against Arsenal on 4 December.

    United reached this season's Europa League by winning the FA Cup under Ten Hag and they have that potential path again this season, while they are also still in the EFL Cup, a competition in which they will play Tottenham in the quarter-finals.

    Winning the Europa League itself, meanwhile, would mean qualification to the Champions League.

    But while there are multiple routes open to Amorim in his bid to secure a continental spot, the Opta supercomputer does not like his chances of doing that through United's league placing.

    After their poor start to the season, United have just a 13.2% chance of finishing in the top six, and a 33.1% shot at reaching the top eight.

    As things stand, they are most likely to finish between ninth and 11th, meaning they are on track for their worst-ever Premier League finish unless Amorim can lead a rapid revival.

  • Slot deserves praise for modest approach to Liverpool job – Mills Slot deserves praise for modest approach to Liverpool job – Mills

    Arne Slot deserves praise for not being "arrogant" with his approach to succeeding Jurgen Klopp as Liverpool boss, according to Danny Mills.

    The Dutchman has made a hugely positive start to life at Anfield since replacing long-serving Klopp ahead of the 2024-25 season.

    The 28 points Slot has collected is the joint-most of any manager in their opening 11 Premier League games along with Guus Hiddink at Chelsea.

    Liverpool's only blemish on an otherwise perfect start to the top-flight campaign was a 1-0 loss to Nottingham Forest in September.

    Indeed, only in 2019-20 (31 points) have Liverpool collected more points after 11 games of a Premier League season than their 28 this campaign.

    Former Leeds United and Manchester City defender Mills has been particularly impressed by Slot's approach to a new era at Anfield.

    "Arne Slot has surprised me," Mills told Stats Perform. "They did have a difficult defeat against Nottingham Forest at home. That was a defeat not many people saw that coming, but the start he's had is unbelievable. It's incredible.

    "Training might be slightly different, but the style of play is very similar. The players are comfortable with it. They've been high-energy, closing people down, and playing at 100 miles an hour when they win the ball back.

    "It shows managerial intelligence to understand the players' qualities and build on what they had when they were successful. He hasn't overthought it or tinkered too much. 

    "He hasn’t been arrogant and said, 'I'm going to rip it up and start fresh'. It wasn't broken; it was already successful. He's just added to it."

    Liverpool won a first ever Premier League title during Klopp's eight-and-a-half years in charge, as well the Champions League in 2018-19.

    Klopp also lifted the FA Cup, two EFL Cups, the UEFA Super Cup and FIFA Club World Cup, setting a high benchmark to follow.

    "Liverpool identified the man they wanted, brought him in, and he's been very clever," Mills added. "He looked at the squad and thought, 'these are good players. I don't need to change too much'. 

    "That's smart because Liverpool were very successful under Klopp. If you come in and rip up the playbook and it doesn't work, players will question why they're not doing what worked under Klopp."

    Liverpool have conceded just six goals in the Premier League this season – four fewer than next-best Nottingham Forest.

    They are conceding at a rate of around 0.5 goals per game, compared to around 1.1 in Klopp's final season in charge (41 goals in 38 matches).

    "Slot has tweaked things slightly, maybe made them more defensively solid, which they needed to really challenge," Mills said. "Championship-winning or Champions League-winning teams are built on solid defences. 

    "You don't win without that. He's shored up the defence and allowed the players to continue doing what they were doing before."

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