EPL

The Numbers Game: History suggests Hammers derby can gift Spurs a lift

By Sports Desk February 17, 2023

Tottenham are in need of a lift following back-to-back defeats, and history would suggest it might come at the expense of West Ham in the absence of Antonio Conte.

Head coach Conte made a swift return to the touchline last weekend following gallbladder surgery and watched his side suffer a 4-1 Premier League defeat at Leicester City.

The Italian then oversaw a 1-0 Champions League defeat at Milan on Tuesday, but he has remained on his homeland in order to take time to make a full recovery from his operation.

Cristian Stellini will once again step up to take charge of Tottenham for the foreseeable future, and Conte's assistant's first task is to mastermind a home derby victory over West Ham this weekend.

Stats Perform previews the clash between the London rivals by picking out the standout Opta data.

Five-in-a-row frustration for Hammers

West Ham have lost five consecutive away London derbies since beating Crystal Palace 3-2 on New Year's Day in 2022.

That is their longest such run since a streak of six defeats on the bounce between April 2009 and October 2010.

David Moyes' men draw 1-1 at home to Spurs in August but only once in the past eight seasons have they avoided defeat in both Premier League meetings with Spurs – that being in the 2020-21 campaign.

More home comforts for Spurs?

While Tottenham are smarting from back-to-back losses in all competitions, they beat Premier League leaders Manchester City 1-0 in their last home game.

Although they lost 2-0 in their own backyard to fierce rivals Arsenal in their last London derby, they were unbeaten in five encounters with fellow capital clubs at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium before that painful setback.

Not since November 2004 have Spurs lost consecutive home London derbies,

Antonio to torment Tottenham again?

Michail Antonio should be licking his lips at the prospect of facing Tottenham.

The striker has scored in four of the Hammers' past five wins over Spurs, including the only goal of the game in three of those contests.

No player has ever scored in four 1-0 victories against the same opponent in Premier League history.

Hammers can snuff out Spurs set-piece threat

No side have scored from more corners in the Premier League this season than Tottenham's 11.

They might be hard pressed to bring up a dozen this weekend, though, as West Ham have not conceded from a corner this term.

If they are to turn the corner this weekend and get their bid for a top-four finish back on track, Spurs may have to be more creative in open play after firing a blank at San Siro.

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    Nottingham Forest – Chris Wood

    Wood has scored more goals than any other Nottingham Forest player in the Premier League this season (12). However, in 11 meetings with Chelsea in the competition, he has never found the back of the net, something he will want to change at the weekend.

    Chelsea – Cole Palmer

    Palmer has been involved in 30 Premier League goals this season, scoring 21 and assisting nine.

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    MATCH PREDICTION: CHELSEA WIN

    Chelsea have lost just one of their last 12 Premier League games (W6 D5), though they are winless in their last five away from home (D4 L1).

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    Chelsea’s Premier League games have seen 129 goals this season (F70 A59), the third most after Sheffield United (135) and Newcastle (134). Only in 2009-10 (135) have the Blues' games produced more goals (F103 A32).

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Nottingham Forest – 25.5%

    Draw – 27.6%

    Chelsea – 46.9%

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