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• The Numbers Game: Can Chelsea dent title hopes of misfiring Gunners?

  Ten matches into the Premier League season, Arsenal's hopes of ending their long wait for a league title are already in danger.

  Last week's 1-0 defeat to Newcastle United made it just seven points from five games, and they now trail leaders Liverpool by seven points.

  Injuries and suspensions have taken their toll on Arteta's men, and things do not get much easier for them on Sunday, against a Chelsea team currently above them on goal difference.

  Enzo Maresca's Blues fought back to draw 1-1 with Manchester United last time out, and only Manchester City and Liverpool have beaten them since the Italian took over.

  We delve into the Opta data to preview Sunday's headline fixture at Stamford Bridge.

  What's expected?

  Given the two sides are only separated on goal difference ahead of Sunday's match, the Opta supercomputer finds it difficult to split. 

  Across 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the supercomputer, Arsenal were victorious in 41.2%, giving them a slight edge over their hosts, who are a 33.2% shot.

  The likelihood of a draw is rated at 25.6%, but you sense Arsenal need to take all three points after seeing their hopes of winning the title drop to 4.4% in Opta's season predictions. Chelsea's own hopes are rated at 0.3%, with City (61.9%) still clear favourites ahead of Liverpool (33.4%).

   

  Chelsea have won just one of their last nine Premier League games against Arsenal (two draws, six defeats), a 2-0 away win in August 2021. The Gunners have managed three victories in their last four league trips to Stamford Bridge (one draw) – as many victories as they recorded in their previous 20 visits (seven draws, 10 defeats).

  Arsenal have also won their last six Premier League London derby matches by an aggregate score of 22-3, winning six of those matches by five or more goals.

  One such occasion was a 5-0 rout of Chelsea at the Emirates Stadium last April, their biggest-ever margin of victory against the Blues in all competitions.

  Blues eye statement victory

  When the Premier League fixture list was drawn up, even the most optimistic Chelsea fan may have struggled to visualise the Blues sitting ahead of Arsenal in the table after 10 games.

  But Maresca's side have shown promising signs in the early stages of his tenure. Chelsea's last two Premier League defeats this season have come against last season's top three teams – 0-5 versus Arsenal in April, 0-2 versus City in August and 1-2 against Liverpool in October.

  They are unbeaten in their last 21 matches against all other teams, winning 14 and drawing seven while scoring 57 goals in total across those games.

  The future looks bright for Chelsea, who fielded a starting lineup with an average age of 23 years and 96 days at Old Trafford last week – their youngest-ever XI for a Premier League match against Manchester United.

  However, they are still waiting on a first statement win under Maresca, and getting one over on the Gunners would earn him plenty of goodwill among the fans.

  Their chances could be decided by the fitness of Cole Palmer, who is an injury doubt after suffering a knock against United.

   

  He opened the scoring when the Blues last welcomed Arsenal to west London for a 2-2 draw last October, scoring his first Premier League goal at Stamford Bridge.

  Since then, he has more home goals in the competition than any other player (21), also leading the way for goal involvements (12 – seven goals, five assists, alongside Mohamed Salah) and open-play chances created in 2024-25.

  Can fit-again Odegaard get Gunners firing?

  Last season, Arsenal won 42 of their 89 Premier League points on their travels, taking nine points from five matches at the homes of their Big Six rivals. 

  This campaign, however, their failure to hit top form on the road has threatened to end their latest title tilt before it truly got going. 

  Arsenal have collected seven points from five away matches this term, the same amount as Brighton and fewer than Liverpool (13), Nottingham Forest (11), Chelsea, City and Aston Villa (all 10).

  While Arteta has long preached the importance of control, Arsenal have simply not been good enough going forward in those matches. They have attempted just 37 shots on the road in the Premier League this season (7.4 per game), with only Brentford (seven) averaging fewer per away match across the entire division.

   

  The fact Arsenal played significant amounts of time at Manchester City and Bournemouth with a numerical disadvantage likely plays a part, but the fact five teams have attempted at least twice as many shots on the road does not make for good reading (Manchester City 90, Tottenham 83, Crystal Palace 79, Bournemouth 78 and Manchester United 74).

  Martin Odegaard's return to training after two months out with an ankle injury is a major boost, with the Norwegian having led all players in the Premier League for expected assists (11.17 xA) and chances created from open play (88) last season.

  Arsenal have actually outperformed their underlying attacking metrics this campaign, netting 17 league goals from 15.75 expected goals (xG), so their finishing does not appear to be an issue. The fact they rank eighth in the league for xG does, however, suggest chance creation is a problem.

  Arteta will hope Odegaard's return can make the difference, or a title challenge may prove a bridge too far. The last time they lost three successive away Premier League games was in December 2021, and they went on to miss out on a top-four finish that season.

  The Norwegian was a late substitute as they were beaten 1-0 by Inter in the Champions League on Wednesday. They have now lost three of their last six games in all competitions, as many as their previous 32 beforehand.

  PLAYERS TO WATCH

  Chelsea – Nicolas Jackson 

  Since the start of last season, Chelsea striker Jackson has been involved in more London derby goals than any other player in the Premier League (10 goals, two assists).

  All of his 12 involvements have come in his last nine such appearances, and he already has six Premier League goals this term.

   

  Arsenal – Bukayo Saka 

  Saka has provided more assists than any other player in the Premier League this season (seven). 

  He has also either scored (once) or assisted (twice) a goal in each of his last three away games against Chelsea in the Premier League, with Sergio Aguero (2013 to 2017) and Javier Hernandez (2012 to 2018) the only visiting players to do so in four consecutive appearances.

• Kompany unbothered by modest scoreline as Bayern beat Benfica

  Vincent Kompany was pleased with the way Bayern Munich attacked at home to Benfica in the Champions League on Wednesday, despite only winning 1-0.

  The victory ended a run of back-to-back defeats for the German team in the competition, leaving them 17th in the league with six points from four matches. 

  "It's important for us to win a game this way. In the past, we always scored three, four or five goals, but today we stayed calm," Kompany told the official club website.

  "We had 24 shots on goal and the opposition had one. Not every finish was dangerous, but we controlled the game. There are games in which the last pass just isn't as precise as necessary.

  "We know we can decide matches within the first five minutes if we're on good form. That didn't happen today. But in the end, it's the Champions League. It was a good game and a good win."

  Midfielder Jamal Musiala scored the only goal of the game in the 67th minute, turning home Harry Kane's knockdown after Leroy Sane had played the ball across the box.

  Sane is yet to start a game in any competition for Bayern this season, coming on in the 56th minute on Wednesday, but his contribution was not lost on Kompany.

  "Obviously, I'm really happy to have the quality of Leroy Sane and Michael Olise in the same position - not to forget Kingsley Coman and Serge Gnabry. You can say Leroy turned this game around today," he said.

  The goalscorer Musiala, meanwhile, was pleased after scoring his fifth goal in all competitions for the club this season.

  “We had good moments, but the opposition played and defended well. Of course, there are still things we can improve, but it's important to have won the three points," he said.

  "I don't know what's going on with me scoring headers at the moment. The ball dropped nicely for me a few times and I just keep trying to get into good positions I can score easy goals from.

  "We all knew we had to win tonight and we did a good job. We had a tough time settling into the game, but we can't win by four or five goals every time. Sometimes a 1-0 win has to be enough.”

• Simeone credits precision for Atletico's last-gasp win at PSG

  Diego Simeone believes Atletico Madrid's precision is to thank for their last-gasp 2-1 win over Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League.

  Warren Zaire-Emery had given PSG an early lead, though Atletico drew level through Nahuel Molina before substitute Angel Correa snatched the victory in the 93rd minute.

  However, Atletico were far from dominant, managing just four shots, three of which were on target, to PSG's 22.

  Last time out in the Champions League, they suffered a 3-1 defeat to Lille despite taking an early lead in that game. But Simeone feels his side have now put things right after ending a three-match losing streak on the road in the competition.

  "You remember the last match against Lille, it was the same situation," Simeone said. "We had seven or eight goalscoring opportunities without being able to convert.

  "In the end, football is about success. While collective play is beautiful, one can attack from all angles, but it's precision that positions you and brings success.

  "Against Lille, we lacked that success, and in this match, Paris was better, but we managed to seize our opportunities.

  "We defended with great collective work against a team that attacks very well. [Jan] Oblak had a great night, and we had a forcefulness that we did not have against Lille. We took a game that compensates for Lille's."

  Three of Correa's UEFA Champions League goals for Atletico Madrid have come away from home, while it is their fifth 90th-minute winner in the competition since 2021-22, more than any other side.  

  He was brought on in the 67th minute to replace Julian Alvarez, and Simeone was pleased with the impact of his substitute.

  "We believe in the footballers we have," he added. That was the compensation to have a goal option in Correa, who has the name of Angel for something.

  "When you enter the field, things always happen. We argue. I tell him because he wants to play the 90 minutes, like all players. But he knows how important 12 of the team is."