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• The Numbers Game: Can Chelsea dent title hopes of misfiring Gunners?

  Ten matches into the Premier League season, Arsenal's hopes of ending their long wait for a league title are already in danger.

  Last week's 1-0 defeat to Newcastle United made it just seven points from five games, and they now trail leaders Liverpool by seven points.

  Injuries and suspensions have taken their toll on Arteta's men, and things do not get much easier for them on Sunday, against a Chelsea team currently above them on goal difference.

  Enzo Maresca's Blues fought back to draw 1-1 with Manchester United last time out, and only Manchester City and Liverpool have beaten them since the Italian took over.

  We delve into the Opta data to preview Sunday's headline fixture at Stamford Bridge.

  What's expected?

  Given the two sides are only separated on goal difference ahead of Sunday's match, the Opta supercomputer finds it difficult to split. 

  Across 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the supercomputer, Arsenal were victorious in 41.2%, giving them a slight edge over their hosts, who are a 33.2% shot.

  The likelihood of a draw is rated at 25.6%, but you sense Arsenal need to take all three points after seeing their hopes of winning the title drop to 4.4% in Opta's season predictions. Chelsea's own hopes are rated at 0.3%, with City (61.9%) still clear favourites ahead of Liverpool (33.4%).

   

  Chelsea have won just one of their last nine Premier League games against Arsenal (two draws, six defeats), a 2-0 away win in August 2021. The Gunners have managed three victories in their last four league trips to Stamford Bridge (one draw) – as many victories as they recorded in their previous 20 visits (seven draws, 10 defeats).

  Arsenal have also won their last six Premier League London derby matches by an aggregate score of 22-3, winning six of those matches by five or more goals.

  One such occasion was a 5-0 rout of Chelsea at the Emirates Stadium last April, their biggest-ever margin of victory against the Blues in all competitions.

  Blues eye statement victory

  When the Premier League fixture list was drawn up, even the most optimistic Chelsea fan may have struggled to visualise the Blues sitting ahead of Arsenal in the table after 10 games.

  But Maresca's side have shown promising signs in the early stages of his tenure. Chelsea's last two Premier League defeats this season have come against last season's top three teams – 0-5 versus Arsenal in April, 0-2 versus City in August and 1-2 against Liverpool in October.

  They are unbeaten in their last 21 matches against all other teams, winning 14 and drawing seven while scoring 57 goals in total across those games.

  The future looks bright for Chelsea, who fielded a starting lineup with an average age of 23 years and 96 days at Old Trafford last week – their youngest-ever XI for a Premier League match against Manchester United.

  However, they are still waiting on a first statement win under Maresca, and getting one over on the Gunners would earn him plenty of goodwill among the fans.

  Their chances could be decided by the fitness of Cole Palmer, who is an injury doubt after suffering a knock against United.

   

  He opened the scoring when the Blues last welcomed Arsenal to west London for a 2-2 draw last October, scoring his first Premier League goal at Stamford Bridge.

  Since then, he has more home goals in the competition than any other player (21), also leading the way for goal involvements (12 – seven goals, five assists, alongside Mohamed Salah) and open-play chances created in 2024-25.

  Can fit-again Odegaard get Gunners firing?

  Last season, Arsenal won 42 of their 89 Premier League points on their travels, taking nine points from five matches at the homes of their Big Six rivals. 

  This campaign, however, their failure to hit top form on the road has threatened to end their latest title tilt before it truly got going. 

  Arsenal have collected seven points from five away matches this term, the same amount as Brighton and fewer than Liverpool (13), Nottingham Forest (11), Chelsea, City and Aston Villa (all 10).

  While Arteta has long preached the importance of control, Arsenal have simply not been good enough going forward in those matches. They have attempted just 37 shots on the road in the Premier League this season (7.4 per game), with only Brentford (seven) averaging fewer per away match across the entire division.

   

  The fact Arsenal played significant amounts of time at Manchester City and Bournemouth with a numerical disadvantage likely plays a part, but the fact five teams have attempted at least twice as many shots on the road does not make for good reading (Manchester City 90, Tottenham 83, Crystal Palace 79, Bournemouth 78 and Manchester United 74).

  Martin Odegaard's return to training after two months out with an ankle injury is a major boost, with the Norwegian having led all players in the Premier League for expected assists (11.17 xA) and chances created from open play (88) last season.

  Arsenal have actually outperformed their underlying attacking metrics this campaign, netting 17 league goals from 15.75 expected goals (xG), so their finishing does not appear to be an issue. The fact they rank eighth in the league for xG does, however, suggest chance creation is a problem.

  Arteta will hope Odegaard's return can make the difference, or a title challenge may prove a bridge too far. The last time they lost three successive away Premier League games was in December 2021, and they went on to miss out on a top-four finish that season.

  The Norwegian was a late substitute as they were beaten 1-0 by Inter in the Champions League on Wednesday. They have now lost three of their last six games in all competitions, as many as their previous 32 beforehand.

  PLAYERS TO WATCH

  Chelsea – Nicolas Jackson 

  Since the start of last season, Chelsea striker Jackson has been involved in more London derby goals than any other player in the Premier League (10 goals, two assists).

  All of his 12 involvements have come in his last nine such appearances, and he already has six Premier League goals this term.

   

  Arsenal – Bukayo Saka 

  Saka has provided more assists than any other player in the Premier League this season (seven). 

  He has also either scored (once) or assisted (twice) a goal in each of his last three away games against Chelsea in the Premier League, with Sergio Aguero (2013 to 2017) and Javier Hernandez (2012 to 2018) the only visiting players to do so in four consecutive appearances.

• Kompany unbothered by modest scoreline as Bayern beat Benfica

  Vincent Kompany was pleased with the way Bayern Munich attacked at home to Benfica in the Champions League on Wednesday, despite only winning 1-0.

  The victory ended a run of back-to-back defeats for the German team in the competition, leaving them 17th in the league with six points from four matches. 

  "It's important for us to win a game this way. In the past, we always scored three, four or five goals, but today we stayed calm," Kompany told the official club website.

  "We had 24 shots on goal and the opposition had one. Not every finish was dangerous, but we controlled the game. There are games in which the last pass just isn't as precise as necessary.

  "We know we can decide matches within the first five minutes if we're on good form. That didn't happen today. But in the end, it's the Champions League. It was a good game and a good win."

  Midfielder Jamal Musiala scored the only goal of the game in the 67th minute, turning home Harry Kane's knockdown after Leroy Sane had played the ball across the box.

  Sane is yet to start a game in any competition for Bayern this season, coming on in the 56th minute on Wednesday, but his contribution was not lost on Kompany.

  "Obviously, I'm really happy to have the quality of Leroy Sane and Michael Olise in the same position - not to forget Kingsley Coman and Serge Gnabry. You can say Leroy turned this game around today," he said.

  The goalscorer Musiala, meanwhile, was pleased after scoring his fifth goal in all competitions for the club this season.

  “We had good moments, but the opposition played and defended well. Of course, there are still things we can improve, but it's important to have won the three points," he said.

  "I don't know what's going on with me scoring headers at the moment. The ball dropped nicely for me a few times and I just keep trying to get into good positions I can score easy goals from.

  "We all knew we had to win tonight and we did a good job. We had a tough time settling into the game, but we can't win by four or five goals every time. Sometimes a 1-0 win has to be enough.”

• Fulham full of confidence for Palace trip after dramatic derby win

  Fulham are preparing to visit Crystal Palace with renewed confidence after a dramatic late win in another London derby against Brentford.

  Marco Silva's men were trailing heading into stoppage time at Craven Cottage on Monday, only for a sensational Harry Wilson double to snatch a 2-1 victory.

  That was a first win in four in the Premier League for Fulham, although their performances might have merited more points.

  Alex Iwobi certainly believes so, explaining: "It's a big lift because we feel like our performances recently deserved a lot more, in terms of getting points and results.

  "And the way we did it, against Brentford, we knew it wasn't going to be an easy game, a derby as well... To win it in the manner we did has definitely given us a confidence boost going into another London derby against Palace."

  Palace have themselves been given a big lift in the past couple of weeks, following their belated first league win of the season against Tottenham with an EFL Cup defeat of Aston Villa and a controversial draw at Wolves.

  The Eagles are still only a place above the relegation zone, and Iwobi is hoping Fulham can check their progress.

  "We know it's not going to be easy," he said. "Another derby, it's never easy at their stadium.

  "We know it's always tough to go and play there, but we're going to analyse, see their weaknesses. It's not easy, but we'll analyse and see what we can do.

  "They've only had one win this season – hopefully it remains that way against us and we'll get the result we want."

  Will Hughes had a message for the Palace fans ahead of their return to Selhurst Park: "Thanks for sticking with us, as usual.

  "It's not been the best of starts for us in the league, but hopefully they can see, especially over the last few games, that we're turning a corner, not only results wise but the intensity we're playing with.

  "We were so difficult to play against at the end of last season with our intensity, and I think we've got that bit of mojo back. Hopefully, we can keep pushing on."

  PLAYERS TO WATCH

  Crystal Palace – Jean-Philippe Mateta

  Goals have been hard to come by for Palace this season – especially at Selhurst Park.

  Oliver Glasner's side have netted a league-low three times at home, but all of those have been scored by Mateta, continuing his strong form from the end of last season. He has 14 goals in his past 12 home league games for Palace.

  They will again rely heavily on the French striker, with Eberechi Eze injured and fellow forward Eddie Nketiah struggling for form. New signing Nketiah has attempted 17 shots without scoring, the most in the Premier League this season.

  Fulham – Harry Wilson

  There is increased competition in the wide areas for Fulham this season, with Emile Smith Rowe and Reiss Nelson signed and battling with Iwobi, Adama Traore and Wilson for minutes.

  But if Wilson cannot get his opportunity after sensationally stealing a win against Brentford last time out, he might wonder if he will ever return to the XI, still waiting for his first league start of the season.

  His cutting edge was exactly what Fulham had previously been missing, attempting against Brentford 26 shots – their most in the Premier League for over 10 years – but requiring that late show to come away with the points.

  MATCH PREDICTION: DRAW

  Following their comeback against Brentford, Fulham are unbeaten in six Premier League London derbies – their longest run since 2006-07 – and also their past five matches against Palace.

  Yet four of those clashes with the Eagles have ended all square, including each of the last three.

  Palace will hope for more as they look to move clear of the bottom three, but they have not won consecutive league derbies since April 2017 and were victors in their last capital clash against Spurs.

  Perhaps 0-0 is therefore the most likely scoreline. Fulham have kept three consecutive clean sheets at Selhurst Park, and their five away matches in the league this season have seen only 11 goals scored.

  OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

  Crystal Palace – 37.5%
  Draw – 26.3%
  Fulham – 36.2%