Erik ten Hag is talking an excellent game, even when his Manchester United team perhaps let their standards slip.
It is a manager's duly to keep the confidence high, so when Ten Hag said United's defending was "unacceptable" after Sunday's 3-2 loss to Arsenal, he sought to qualify those comments the next time he spoke in public.
Ten Hag returned to the theme in a press conference before United's midweek EFL Cup semi-final win at Nottingham Forest, and this time his message was overwhelmingly positive.
"In general, Arsenal we defended very well," Ten Hag said. "I don't think they had clean shots. There was only one time, it was from a free-kick.
"For the rest it was only shots, cutbacks, shots from distance where a lot of defenders from us were in between the ball and the goal and that's what I meant after, all the goals were avoidable."
This is all about the power of positive thinking, with the Dutchman finding a way to infuse critical feedback with praise, but Opta's Arsenal game data firmly debunks the idea the Gunners rarely got close to the United goal.
Across the Premier League season to date, only once has a team had more shots inside the penalty area than the 20 that Arsenal had against United.
Manchester City, with 21 shots inside the area in a 3-1 victory at Leeds United in December, topped that, but for Ten Hag to suggest Arsenal rarely got close to the United goal is on the face of it misleading.
United's expected goals against (xGA) tally of 3.25 against Arsenal was the seventh-highest incurred by a Premier League team this season.
United also have number six on that list – with a 3.3 xGA total in the 6-3 thrashing by Manchester City in October.
These are the games where they have leaked chances in bulk, and good chances to boot.
It is worth saying such games stand out as being atypical of United this season.
Overall, United have done well in limiting chances in the Premier League, with their next two highest xGA totals being the 1.61 and 1.5 they conceded to Brentford and Brighton and Hove Albion in their opening two games of the campaign.
Last season, United conceded xGA of above 2.00 in 12 Premier League games, so there are clear signs of major improvement.
The Brentford and Brighton games both resulted in defeats, but United have been a team transformed since August. In 10 of their 20 Premier League games this term, they have conceded under 1.00 xGA, majorly limiting the opposition's opportunities.
They went under that 1.00 mark for five consecutive league games before the Arsenal defeat.
Perhaps Ten Hag is working on the principle that if you say something firmly and assuredly enough, it will become a reality.
Against Forest in the EFL Cup on Wednesday, United were far more like their usual selves.
Forest had nine goal attempts from inside the United penalty area, but the xGA was a mere 0.65.
United's win at the City Ground has put them on the brink of the final, ahead of the Old Trafford second leg, with Ten Hag looking to guide the Red Devils to a first major trophy since the 2016-17 EFL Cup and Europa League triumphs under Jose Mourinho.
Among United's rivals for Champions League places, Manchester City and Newcastle United have built around defensive sturdiness this season.
There have been eight occasions when teams have faced three or fewer shots (including blocks) in Premier League games this season, and Newcastle have had three of those and City four. Brighton had the other, against Forest in October.
There have also been 11 occasions when a team have not faced a single shot on target, which can be put down to a mix of good defending and poor finishing.
Newcastle have had the most such games, with four of their opponents not managing to hit the target.
The fewest shots on target Manchester United have faced, curiously, is the one that Manchester City managed in January's derby. United also faced just five shots in total in that game - their fewest this term, again, and a sign Ten Hag is turning his team into a well-drilled unit, even if there continues to be the odd aberration.
Portland Timbers v FC Dallas: Neville hopes to bounce back and clinch play-off spot
Portland Timbers coach Phil Neville is “looking forward to bouncing back” after a defeat to Austin FC, as a win or a draw against FC Dallas will be enough to secure a place in the MLS playoffs.
Portland fell to a 1-0 defeat at home to Austin, who they are vying with for the final play-off spot in the Western Conference.
While The Timbers will have a second chance to secure their spot against the Seattle Sounders should they fail to gain points against Dallas, Neville will hope to enter the final day with it already wrapped up.
Portland currently sit six points ahead of Austin, meaning a draw against Dallas will be enough.
“We’re looking forward to bouncing back,” Neville told the press. “We’ve qualified for the playoffs barring a miracle.
“We’ve got to return to what we do best and that’s put on a convincing show at home on Sunday.”
The man in the opposition dugout, Peter Luccin, is far more disappointed with his side's recent defeat, which saw them mathematically ruled out of playoff contention.
Dallas lost 3-2 to the San Jose Earthquakes midweek, which puts them eleventh in the table and out of reach of their opponents.
Luccin’s side had kept the scores level at 1-1 until the 79th minute when San Jose scored two in quick succession before Dallas pulled one back. It left the interim head coach frustrated with the display.
"[I’m] very disappointed, very sad, mad at the same time. With Austin beating Portland, our scenario was perfect, winning this game and going to Portland just five points away and trying to beat Portland. It’s so disappointing,” he said, via Big D Soccer.
“The goal that we conceded, the chances that we missed. Very, very disappointed. I haven’t had time to talk with the players, it is a night to suffer a little bit. We didn’t take care of business and it’s all on us.”
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Portland Timbers – Evander
Attacking midfielder Evander has the second-most assists in the league with 14 in 26 appearances, only behind FC Cincinnati’s Luciano Acosta, who has 16 in 30 appearances.
The Brazilian ranks joint-sixth in the league for chances created having produced 81 across the season, while he has also scored 15 goals.
Dallas - Peter Musa
Musa is the top goalscorer for Dallas this season (15), with three times the number of goals than his highest-scoring team-mate, Paul Arriola.
He was on the scoresheet last time the two sides met in a high-scoring encounter that saw Dallas win 3-2.
MATCH PREDICTION: PORTLAND TIMBERS WIN
Portland have lost just one of their 15 all-time home matches against Dallas (W9 D5), going unbeaten in the last seven (W4 D3).
Dallas have scored just two total goals in those seven visits, following a 3-1 victory in their only win at Portland in April 2016.
Despite failing to score at home on Wednesday, Portland’s 39 goals at Providence Park this season in the MLS is their most in a single regular season since the club joined the league in 2011.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Portland Timbers – 54.2%
Draw – 23.5%
Dallas – 22.3%
Guardiola not concerned despite Manchester City's poor defensive record
Pep Guardiola is not worried about Manchester City's defending despite the reigning champions failing to keep a clean sheet in their last six Premier League matches.
City went 1-0 down against Fulham before fighting back to win 3-2 on Saturday. Their opponents also amassed an expected goals (xG) total of 2.4 compared to City's 1.55.
It follows a trend of unusually sloppy defensive displays from the champions, who have conceded eight goals in their last six league matches. They also had to come from behind against Brentford in September.
Guardiola, however, is not overly worried.
"Sometimes I give credit. The first goal – why don't we give credit to them rather than [be critical] defensively? There are actions we can defend better but step by step we will improve," he said, via the Guardian.
"I would say except [Yoane] Wissa against Brentford, in the other ones we were playing good. It's not nice to come back from 0-1 but we created chances today to go 1-0 and 2-0."
City allowed Fulham five big chances compared to their one, with the London side taking 11 shots, nine of those from inside the box.
Comparatively, City had 20 shots with only half of those coming from inside the box. However, two of the visitors’ goals came from outside the area with Jeremy Doku and Mateo Kovacic both firing in from distance.
"I'm very happy he scored two goals, he's not a guy to score [usually] those goals," Guardiola said of Kovacic, who is one of the midfielders the City boss expects to fill in for the injured Rodri this season.
“We started really well with two chances in two minutes and they switched immediately to five at the back. When they do that, we have one man free on the 18-yard box and that is Kovacic.
"The two goals were because they couldn't defend that. We have to exploit that more against teams that don’t play five at the back – now opponents know that they can’t leave him [Kovacic] alone, otherwise he will score a goal."
New York City FC v Nashville SC: 'Fourth place is everything', claims Cushing
Nick Cushing has insisted New York City FC's focus must be on rounding off the regular-season strongly as he eyes a fourth-place finish in the Eastern Conference.
His side sit fifth, two points behind current fourth-placed Orlando City after a 3-2 home victory over third-placed FC Cincinnati.
They have two games remaining before the postseason, which they have already secured their place in, but they also have the chance to reach 50 points for the first time since 2022.
With Orlando facing a tough opponent in Cincinnati this weekend, Cushing remains determined to direct his team's focus on their upcoming match.
"The whole aim of not having a mental slip up [against Nashville] is to focus on fourth place," he told the press.
"Fourth place is everything to us. We could be playing top of the league. We could be playing the team bottom of the league.
"Our mentality, our focus, has to be on performing, and on getting intensity into the game and doing the things that have helped us win football games lately because if we continue to win and somebody around us slips up, that fourth place is open for us."
Their visiting opponents, Nashville SC, find themselves in a different predicament as they sit outside of the playoff spots in 13th place.
"I think Nashville are a really difficult team to play against. I think under their previous coach [they were] direct, and incredible on set plays,” added Cushing.
"Hany Muktar is very dangerous. Sam Surridge is a top player. They’ve got good players, and you have to see past results because, with the new coach, they now play a little bit more."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
New York City – Alonso Martinez
Martinez is the joint-ninth top scorer in the MLS this season with a club-leading 15 goals in 24 appearances so far.
NYCFC have not failed to score in their last five matches, and Martinez will be key to them keeping this streak in the hope of a win against Nashville.
Nashville – Hany Mukhtar
Mukhtar had a goal and an assist in Nashville's loss to D.C. United on Wednesday, his 30th career MLS match with multiple goal contributions.
Only Luciano Acosta and Daniel Gazdag have 20 such matches since Mukhtar debuted in MLS in 2020.
MATCH PREDICTION: NEW YORK CITY WIN
The hosts are in hot form. They have won consecutive matches after recording just one win in their previous 14 in all competitions (D9 L4).
NYCFC have scored eight times in the two matches, the first time the club has scored eight goals in a two-match span since April-May 2022.
Nashville, on the other hand, have lost six of their last seven regular-season away matches dating back to the beginning of July. They have scored just four goals over those seven matches and have only scored 10 times on the road in 2024, the fewest in MLS this season.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
New York City – 55.6%
Draw – 22.9%
Nashville – 21.5%
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