EPL

The Numbers Game: Chelsea looking to use Anfield trip as chance to turn corner under Potter

By Sports Desk January 20, 2023

Chelsea have an opportunity to truly turn a corner under Graham Potter when they face Liverpool in Jurgen Klopp's 1,000th game as a manager.

Just four months into the job, Potter had to fend off questions regarding his future on the back of a run of one win in eight matches, six of those ending in defeat.

Last weekend's slender 1-0 win over Crystal Palace has brought the "buzz" back to Chelsea, in the view of Potter, but another loss at Anfield on Saturday could change all that.

Tenth-place Chelsea are not the only Premier League giant to have struggled this term, with opponents Liverpool level on points in ninth, albeit having played a game less.

Indeed, this weekend's meeting will mark the first time since the 2015-16 campaign that both sides have been outside the top six at this stage of a season.

Stats Perform has picked out the standout Opta numbers to preview the big game, with both clubs needing to put a strong run together to have any change of securing a top-four finish.


Poor form laid bare

Chelsea have won just two of their past 10 Premier League matches, collecting nine points from a possible 30 in that period.

Both of those victories – against Bournemouth late last month before seeing off Palace  – have been on home soil, with the Blues winless in five away top-flight matches since mid-October.

Liverpool's form has been equally as patchy, having lost back-to-back league games in 2023 against Brentford and Brighton and Hove Albion, the two sides directly above them.

They picked up their first win of the year in all competitions at the fourth attempt against Wolves in the FA Cup on Tuesday to lift the gloom.

Not since 1953 have the Reds started a year with three straight league losses.


Draws galore

Both teams are therefore in need of a victory if they are to make up any ground on the top four, though this fixture has often ended all square in recent times.

The two league games last season were drawn – 1-1 at Anfield in August and 2-2 at Stamford Bridge five months later, with Chelsea recovering from two goals down in the latter.

Then came the EFL and FA Cup finals contested in the space of three months that defined both sides' seasons; each ending goalless before Liverpool prevailed on penalties.

Never before have Liverpool and Chelsea drawn three consecutive league games, though, so that streak looks set to end this weekend.


No home comforts

Preceding that run of draws, Chelsea won 1-0 at Anfield in March 2021 – Mason Mont scoring the only goal – to continue an interesting sequence in this fixture.

The home team has won just three of the past 17 league games between Liverpool and Chelsea – and none in the Reds' case since July 2020 on the day they lifted the title.

Due to the high number of draws, though, Liverpool have lost only two of their past 15 top-flight games with Chelsea at Anfield, winning six and having to settle for a point seven times in that sequence.

Mudryk to make his mark?

One of the big factors behind Liverpool's drop-off this season has been their struggles at the back, having conceded 25 goals in 18 games – compared to 26 in 38 last season.

Should they concede against Chelsea, it will be the first time since between May and October 2016 they have gone nine successive Premier League games without a clean sheet.

Not since December 1953 have they shipped three-or-more goals in three straight top-flight matches, meanwhile, which they are risk of doing on Saturday. 

But that seems highly unlikely on the face of it as Chelsea have only scored more than twice in a league game once this season, coming in October's 3-0 win at Wolves.

Mykhailo Mudryk's arrival has bolstered Chelsea's attack, and he is out to become the first Ukrainian to score on their Premier League debut.

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  • Gravenberch ready to show off Liverpool form ‘to the world’, says Gakpo Gravenberch ready to show off Liverpool form ‘to the world’, says Gakpo

    Liverpool’s Cody Gakpo expressed his pride in seeing compatriot Ryan Gravenberch show off his qualities ‘to the whole world’ after a fine start to the Premier League season.

    Though the Netherlands pair did not become teammates at Liverpool until late summer of 2023, Gakpo knew well Gravenberch’s talents from their respective Eredivisie spells with PSV Eindhoven and Ajax.

    Now in his second season at Anfield, Gravenberch has drawn widespread plaudits for his form in a new deeper-lying midfield role under new head coach Arne Slot, having largely been used as a substitute under Jurgen Klopp.

    Gravenberch is the only midfielder in Europe's big-five leagues to both make 30+ tackles (30) and 30+ interceptions (33) in all competitions this season, and Gakpo insisted that his Netherlands team-mate can continue to go from strength to strength, starting against Southampton this Sunday.

    “We [the Dutchmen at Liverpool] knew Ryan already from the Eredivisie when he played at Ajax, and I think everybody knew already that he is this good,” Gakpo recently told Men in Blazers.

    “After that, he made a move to Bayern Munich, and maybe he didn’t play that much over there, but still everybody in Holland knew how good he could be when he was playing.

    “And I think maybe the manager [Slot] also knew this. At the beginning of the season, he put him in a slightly different position, but he gave him the confidence to play there.

    “Ryan showed his quality in that position, grabbed his chance as well and turned out to be a good match. He is playing outstandingly for us this season.

    “I’m very happy that we can see Ryan, as we Dutchmen already knew, but now he can show it to the whole world. I’m very proud of him.”

    Southampton, meanwhile, welcome the Reds to St. Mary’s on the back of a 2-0 defeat to Wolves ahead of the international break, leaving them bottom of the table after 11 games of the season.

    The Saints are the lowest scorers in the Premier League this season (seven), while only Crystal Palace (5.1%) have a lower shot conversion rate than Russell Martin’s side (6.2%). Just 30.1% of Southampton’s shots have been on target this term (34/113), a league-low ratio.

    However, the Southampton head coach is relishing the opportunity of facing Liverpool, with his players performing well against the likes of Arsenal and Manchester City already this term.

    "I'm really excited about Sunday. We're playing the best team in the country at the moment, on their current form and what they have been doing with their manager, built on an incredible foundation from the previous manager, so I'm really looking forward to it,” Martin said.

    "I think we showed the guys the Premier League table last season and how much it changed by the end and by the end of December. But it's honestly such an exciting month.

    "People talk about the difficulty of the game and every competition we face in the next four or five games, but it's what we all worked so hard for. We should be excited about the challenge.  

    “I think teams have shown in the last few weeks that you can pick up big results against big teams, good opposition, and we are going to have to. Our level of performance against teams at the top end of the table has been good on the whole."

    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    Southampton – Mateus Fernandes

    Fernandes has become a mainstay in the Southampton team, starting the last eight Premier League games in a row, and has been one of Martin’s standout performers in a lacklustre start to the campaign.

    In the Saints’ 2-0 defeat to Wolves last time out, the Portuguese contributed a team-high expected goals (xG) tally of 0.22 from his three shots, while only Yukinari Sugawara (10) and Flynn Downes (12) have created more chances in the top-flight than Fernandes (eight) this season.

    Liverpool – Mohamed Salah

    Salah has both scored and assisted in the same match 35 times in the Premier League (including four already this term), just one shy of Wayne Rooney’s record of 36 games with both a goal and an assist in the competition. The Egyptian has been directly involved in 11 goals (seven goals, four assists) in 11 Premier League appearances against Southampton.

    He has also been directly involved in 67% of Liverpool’s Premier League goals this season (14/21 – eight goals, six assists), the highest ratio by a player for any side in the division in 2024-25. Indeed, only Matt Le Tissier for Southampton in 1993-94 (69% - 34/49) has scored or assisted a higher proportion of a side’s goals in a single season in the competition.

    MATCH PREDICTION: LIVERPOOL WIN

    Liverpool have won nine of their 11 Premier League games under new head coach Slot (D1 L1). A win over Southampton will see the Dutchman become the joint-fastest manager to reach 10 wins from the start of a Premier League career (12 games), alongside Guus Hiddink in May 2009 and Carlo Ancelotti in November 2009 (both with Chelsea).

    The Reds’ last Premier League game against the Saints was a 4-4 away draw in May 2023 – they conceded as many goals in that game as they had in their previous six visits to St Mary’s combined.

    Southampton have won just one of their last 14 Premier League games against Liverpool (D3 L10), a 1-0 home victory in January 2021.

    This will also be the first Premier League match between the side starting the day bottom of the table and the side starting the day top since April 2023, and Southampton’s 3-3 draw away to Arsenal. The league leaders are unbeaten in 14 such matches (W12 D2) since Wolves won 2-1 against Manchester United in February 2011.

    However, Southampton have only lost one of their last eight Premier League home games against sides starting the day at the summit (W2 D5) and are unbeaten in their last four (W2 D2 – including a 1-0 win over Liverpool in January 2021) since a 0-1 defeat to Man City in May 2018.

    But Martin’s side have lost nine of their 11 Premier League games this season (W1 D1). Only seven sides in English top-flight history have reached 10 defeats in 12 or fewer matches from the start of a campaign, with all seven going on to be relegated.

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Southampton – 9.7%

    Draw – 12.6%

    Liverpool – 77.7%

  • Taylor proud of 'gritty' Man City display in Hammarby victory Taylor proud of 'gritty' Man City display in Hammarby victory

    Gareth Taylor was pleased with how his Manchester City players handled the atmosphere against Hammarby to secure their passage into the Champions League quarter-finals.

    Khadija Shaw opened the scoring in the 31st minute before Ellen Wangerheim restored parity shortly after the interval with a finish from close range. 

    But Shaw continued her fine start to the campaign, scoring the winner to become City's all-time top scorer in the competition, surpassing Georgia Stanway and Janine Beckie (both six). 

    The result saw City make it to the last eight of the competition for the first time since 2021, though the encounter was far from comfortable at the Tele2 Arena on Thursday. 

    Hammarby ended the contest with an expected goals (xG) total of 2.15 compared to the visitors' 1.07, despite both sides having 14 shots throughout the match. 

    However, City maintained their unbeaten record against Swedish sides in the competitor (W6), and Taylor was proud of his side's "gritty" display in Stockholm. 

    “I’m really pleased. It was about qualification for us tonight," Taylor said. 

    "There were a couple of ways we could do it. Obviously, we knew a point was enough, but I don’t think the players were thinking that way.

    “It was a really gritty performance on a really difficult on this pitch. It probably doesn’t look like that for the viewers at home watching it.

    "But it was a really lively surface and we worked so hard.

    “I felt there were some areas we could control the play better. I have to give credit to Hammarby, they were really aggressive.

    "The referee was on our side a little bit in the first half and maybe not in the second.

    “I’m really pleased and proud of the players, they really dug in tonight. You come away from a hostile environment with a win.”

  • McKenna fired up for 'biggest game in world football' against Man United McKenna fired up for 'biggest game in world football' against Man United

    Kieran McKenna believes Ipswich Town's Premier League clash with Manchester United will be the "biggest game in world football" this weekend.

    United are in action under new manager Ruben Amorim for the first time since the Portuguese officially replaced Arne Slot as head coach.

    While plenty of focus is on the visitors at Portman Road, Ipswich are fired up after beating Tottenham 2-1 before the international break.

    That was Ipswich's first league win of the season – and their first in the Premier League in 22 years – and now attention turns to facing United.

    McKenna, who previously coached United, said at a fan event this week: "Sunday, what a game. It's one we're really, really looking forward to.

    "Not for the personal connection, but as manager of Ipswich Town, to be on that stage, it's what we've worked so hard for.

    "It's the biggest game in world football anywhere this weekend, the biggest game in the world in the biggest sport in the world and it's at Portman Road."

    Ipswich's surprise win at Tottenham last time out moved them up to 17th, while United are 13th after beating Leicester City 3-0 in Ruud van Nistelrooy's final game in caretaker charge.

    Amorim took his first training session on Monday, albeit with many first-team stars away on international duty, and the former Sporting CP boss believes his style of play will be clear to see from the off. 

    "I think you will see an idea," he told the club's website. "You could like it or not, I don't know, but you will see an idea. 
     
    "You will see a positioning. You will see something that we want to reach that kind of level. You will feel that. 
     
    "We have to know it's [only] two trainings before the first match. This is the best league in the world. But if I have to say something to you, [it's that] you will see an idea. This I can guarantee."

    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    Ipswich Town - Liam Delap

    Delap scored what proved to be Ipswich's winner against Tottenham and has now netted six of his side's 12 Premier League goals this term.

    That makes the Manchester City academy product one of only three players to have scored at least half of his side's goals in the competition this season, along with Erling Haaland at City (55%) and Chris Wood at Nottingham Forest (53%).

    Manchester United - Alejandro Garnacho

    Garnacho was among the scorers against Leicester two weeks ago and has now been directly involved in 20 Premier League goals for United (13 goals and seven assists).

    The Argentina international is one of only two non-British players to reach that figure for United before turning 21, along with Cristiano Ronaldo (25 goals).

    MATCH PREDICTION: MANCHESTER UNITED WIN

    Ipswich are seeking back-to-back Premier League wins for the first time since February 2022, with that run also beginning with a 2-1 victory against Tottenham.

    The Tractor Boys are the only side in the competition without a home win this season. Only five newly promoted clubs have failed to win any of their first six home matches, all of whom went back down.

    United have won 17 of their past 19 Premier League games against newly promoted opponents, meanwhile, including nine wins in a row in away fixtures.

    The Red Devils were 1-0 winners on their most recent league trip to Portman Road in April 2022, but only once have they won successive league games away to Ipswich.

    However, the Tractor Boys have lost four of their past five league matches against Man United, failing to score in each of those losses.

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Ipswich Town - 22.2%

    Draw - 23%

    Manchester United - 54.8%

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